Time to rebuild/reload

[jacksonianmarch]

Now that the ASB is over and the second "half" starts tonight, I figured I would weigh in on my Yanks. They're dead. Not in a literal sense, but in a "they have no chance at winning the WS" sense. They might pull a remember the titans and slide into a WC slot. But they aren't winning a WS, and in NY, that's all that matters. It kinda sucks that we are saying goodbye to the captain this yr and Mo last yr and we'll have no playoff berths to show for it, but that is what happens when your health goes to s***. So, it's time for some reflection...

 

In the ROTATION, we got decimated.

CC's career might be over, and in some ways, that'd be a blessing. CC and his massive salary would be fully insured and would only cost us the lux tax component, not the yearly salary.

Nova seems like so long ago, but he came into the yr with such promise. He's had 2 solid partial big league campaigns and came off a very solid finish to 2013. Instead, his elbow finally went.

Tanaka injured his elbow too, and by god, just fix the f***ing thing and be done with it.

Kuroda has been decent and durable. No qualms here

Pineda showed us his potential, then showed us his reality with his lat going out on him

 

The positives?

David Phelps is a big league starter. Sub 4ERA, decent K/9IP rate, decent command. He isn't a #1 or anything close, but he can be a solid #5 for this club for a long time.

Shane Greene has been lights out in his 2 starts. His stuff is electric, if his promotion causes him to be focused for more than just a few starts, he could be in our long term plans

We don't have to see Vidal Nuno pitch again in the Bronx now that he is a DBack

 

PLAN for end of 2014-beginning of 2015-

I say punt the year. Seriously, f***ing punt the yr. This is a disjointed team of underachievers and injury plagued players. I hope they either are certain Tanaka is healthy or they get TJS for him. I want him to be dominant in 2016, and if that means we don't f*** around and get it done, he should be back and ready come 2016.

 

CC potentially being done for his career saves us serious bank, but I don't think we should go out and get a guy like Lester or Scherzer the more I think about it. This would be doing a CC deal all over again. And while CC was the s*** for 4 years, any deal for Lester or Scherzer will involve 7 or 8 yrs, and I don't want to get into that again, especially since I want to punt 2015.

 

Nova should be back to full health come the ASB next yr, and this will be the first time we have seen this since he first came up. He's had elbow issues the last 3 seasons, and the fact they f***ed with him for the past 3 yrs and only now offered the surgery is annoying.

 

Pineda needs to finish this yr strong and go into next yr as the lead dog with Tanaka presumably on the shelf. Then deal him when the stock rises. He is a slow healer, and that wont be tolerated in the Bronx

 

Phelps has earned a full time job.

 

Kuroda needs to be traded. There will definitely be a market and there is no chance he comes back in 2015. Deal him off, and I am sure you can get a good return from a desperate team (maybe the Jays or O's?)

 

And for the rest of the slots, I go with the kids. Rotation starting the yr of Pineda, Phelps, Greene, Banuelos, ??? and then move Nova in come mid season. Why the f*** not? I know this wont happen, but we have to rebuild, and paying for the last few spots just isn't worth it with $50 mil of starting pitcher on the shelf

 

BULLPEN

I am very pleased with this part of the team. Seriously, even though the pen ERA is dismal, the bright spots are intense. Robertson has been a solid closer. Betances has been otherworldly. Warren is closer material as well. We have a slew of talented kids coming down the pipe as well. Hence, we have to deal away Robertson right now. The guy is a FA after 2014 and we have 2 closers in waiting plus a slew of players capable of filling in the pen. Maximize your return, because throwing a 4-5 yr deal at 8 figures annually isn't smart when you have the talent we have in the pen. Next yr, we'd probably have a pen consisting of.... Jose Ramirez, Dan Burawa, Mark Montgomery, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances and maybe Bleich or Rondon from the left side as well as Thornton.

 

LINEUP

What a f***ed up lineup. Seriously, we spent a TON on offense in the offseason and got dogshit for return. Looking at the bright spots....crickets....crickets..... Well, Ellsbury has been good as has Gardner. Tex has returned to being powerful, but can't hit against the shift. Regardless, he's a useful piece, albeit grossly overpaid. McCann has been overwhelmed. Roberts looks old and broken down. Jeter will be gone. Third base has been a disaster. Beltran has been hurt all yr. Soriano was cooked. So, plans for 2015???

 

We actually have a fair amount of position player talent brewing in the minors. We just don't have any transcendent stars in the making, which is why people kill our farm system.

 

At catcher, I deal away Cervelli. He'd be a starter on a lot of second tier teams. We have McCann, whom I think will rebound in yr 2 as he is WAY better than what he has shown thus far. I like JR Murphy as a backup and with Gary Sanchez coming down the pipe, I try to move the fodder between McCann and him as much as I can.

 

At 1b, we have Tex for 2016, but we have a few other guys coming down the pipe. Peter O'Brien has been clubbing HR at a serious rate and a guy in AAA right now is actually doing better than practically anyone. Look up Kyle Roller's stats, the guy has done nothing but his. The knock is that he wears a butcher knife on his non throwing hand in the field. He makes Papi look like Doug Mientkiewicz defensively. I say we leave Tex at 1b, but for breathers, we have some options

 

At 2b, we have Rob Refsnyder. He's hitting .331 with a .942OPS this season, including a .956OPS in AAA. He can hit for above average power (12HR), he takes walks (.401OBP) and he can play solid defensively. This kid has done nothing but hit his entire pro career, might as well start him in the big next yr.

 

At SS, we are devoid of talent entirely. We could use Solarte, but he isn't really a SS. We could use Brendan Ryan, but we might as well let the pitchers hit for him. We could purchase Hanley Ramirez, although he is made of glass. I am entirely unsure who we sign for this position, but I am sure it will suck ass without a major acquisition

 

At 3b we have AROD, the SAVIOR!!!! f*** him. Cut him. Sign Headley. Buy low on this guy, he should have offseason back surgery and my bet is that he gets energized in YS and returns to being productive.

 

LF and CF are covered with Gardner and ARod.

 

RF is a mess. I think Beltran gets his surgery and starts the yr in RF, but seriously, I hope he moves to DH quickly, or contracts ebola. I liked the idea of Beltran, but not for 3 yrs. Year 1 sucked. Year 2 will probably not be much better. Peter O'Brien is playing RF at this time and has actually been pretty good out there. He is an option out there should Beltran contract ebola.

 

DH will be either an outside signee or a combo of Beltran/Roller/O'Brien

 

In the meantime, you collect assets together, showcase some players, and be ready for the big trade. I want Stanton in NY for 2016. Not sure how that happens, but if we can accumulate enough talent by tanking in 2015 while acquiring talent for guys like Kuroda and Robertson, we might be able to pry him away...Pipe dream, I know

[Northern Star]

tl;dr

[jacksonianmarch]

So...I will change pathways a little since we have made some acquisitions. We need to go wild in the rotation next yr. Sign Lester and Scherzer. f*** it. Sign them all. Re-sign Robertson, keep the pen intact. Then go out and sign Nelson Cruz and re-sign Headley

[Station 13]

So...I will change pathways a little since we have made some acquisitions. We need to go wild in the rotation next yr. Sign Lester and Scherzer. f*** it. Sign them all. Re-sign Robertson, keep the pen intact. Then go out and sign Nelson Cruz and re-sign Headley

 

u mad?

[Thunder]

STFU. At least the Skanks are above .500 despite the whole rotation being hurt. Don't you think we have bigger problems?

[Station 13]

STFU. At least the Skanks are above .500 despite the whole rotation being hurt. Don't you think we have bigger problems?

 

No, we don't have bigger problems. We don't built around cluster f***s of a roster.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, we don't have bigger problems. We don't built around cluster f***s of a roster.

 

You have a bigger problem short term. We have a bigger problem long term in terms of getting back to winning

[Palodios]

Tanaka is the difference in the futures of the two clubs. If he doesn't need TJS, the Yankees are golden, and probably charge into the playoffs.

 

However, if he does need TJS, and they wasted all this time trying to get him through it, they'll have lost nearly a year and a half of ace-like production. They'll also go into 2015, the second time in two years without going to the playoffs, and without Derek Jeter.

[seabeachfred]

Tanaka is the difference in the futures of the two clubs. If he doesn't need TJS, the Yankees are golden, and probably charge into the playoffs.

 

However, if he does need TJS, and they wasted all this time trying to get him through it, they'll have lost nearly a year and a half of ace-like production. They'll also go into 2015, the second time in two years without going to the playoffs, and without Derek Jeter.

 

And they will spend their royal asses off this coming winter to make sure they make it in 2015. There is no limit to how much they will spend and we should all know that by now.

[Spudboy]

And they will spend their royal asses off this coming winter to make sure they make it in 2015. There is no limit to how much they will spend and we should all know that by now.

 

This off season could be different for the high spending Yankees Fred. The free agent pool of position players is thin. Of course that won't stop them from spending exorbitantly on front line pitching. Maybe they can make some trades but who in their farm system could be used as chips for one or more impact players?

 

Both the Yankees and Sox have several big holes to fill to get back to playoff contention at this point.

[Palodios]

And they will spend their royal asses off this coming winter to make sure they make it in 2015. There is no limit to how much they will spend and we should all know that by now.

 

Robinson Cano makes me think differently. Just with the return of A-rod's cost, the Yankees are already going to have a higher payroll in 2015 versus 2014.

 

They have to replace Jeter. Hanley would cost 25 a year, or Drew who will cost 10-15 a year despite his mediocrity.

They have to replace Kuroda. Shields will cost 15-20 a year, or Scherzer at 25-30.

Then they have to replace Robertson who will cost 10-15 a year.

 

That's somewhere between 35-70 million a year on top of this year's salary just to replace the guys they're losing. Even if they do end up with Hanley, Scherzer, and Robertson I am not convinced they're the best team in the division, nevermind the league.

[jacksonianmarch]

Robinson Cano makes me think differently. Just with the return of A-rod's cost, the Yankees are already going to have a higher payroll in 2015 versus 2014.

 

They have to replace Jeter. Hanley would cost 25 a year, or Drew who will cost 10-15 a year despite his mediocrity.

They have to replace Kuroda. Shields will cost 15-20 a year, or Scherzer at 25-30.

Then they have to replace Robertson who will cost 10-15 a year.

 

That's somewhere between 35-70 million a year on top of this year's salary just to replace the guys they're losing. Even if they do end up with Hanley, Scherzer, and Robertson I am not convinced they're the best team in the division, nevermind the league.

 

Drew will cost 10-15 mil per year? Really? The guy who isn't hitting .200 can command 8 figures annually? That's wrong and you know it. He'd be lucky to get a $5 mil salary next yr. My bet is that we sign him for another pillow contract, 1 yr $5 mil.

 

There is no way on God's green earth that a soon to be 31 yr old SS who can't stay on the field nets $25 mil a yr. Are you serious with that? His OPS' the last 3 yrs are as follows..

2011- .712

2012- .759

2013- 1.040

2014- .822

 

He's played 130 game or more once since 2010 and his amazing OPS last yr came in 86 games. Hanley isn't sniffing $20 mil a yr. He likely isn't sniffing $15 mil a yr. There is a reason why LA is letting him hit the market, he has an unreasonable level of worth for himself. I doubt NY signs him.

 

Replacing Kuroda is where the Yanks will spend their cash. They might go hard after both Scherzer and Lester since I think Tanaka is likely out for 2015 after TJS

 

We don't have to replace Robertson. We have a closer in the wings on the cheap right now in Betances and that is the one thing we are flush with in the system. We have high end relief prospects. That is what we pretty much own. I think KRob walks with a QO that allows us to recoup a pick.

 

With a cooler head, I can tell you that we might roll into the yr with Rob Refsnyder manning 2b, to be honest. The kid has hit everywhere he has gone. But I might be willing to let Headley walk by now. The guy lost his power. We move Prado to 3b, move Beltran to RF and apparently AFraud is ready to roll, which I doubt significantly. The players on offense aren't there this offseason.

[Palodios]

Drew will cost 10-15 mil per year? Really? The guy who isn't hitting .200 can command 8 figures annually? That's wrong and you know it. He'd be lucky to get a $5 mil salary next yr. My bet is that we sign him for another pillow contract, 1 yr $5 mil.

 

The Yankees were willing to pay the pro-rated portion of his $15 million contract for him this year. I don't think he deserves 10-15 million, but Boras keeps finding a way.

 

 

There is no way on God's green earth that a soon to be 31 yr old SS who can't stay on the field nets $25 mil a yr.

 

Replace "SS" with "CF" and you're talking about Ellsbury. Hanley is a 4-5 WAR player with 30/30 potential at a premium position. He's asking for 25 million, and the one-dumb-owner rule is usually a lock.

 

Replacing Kuroda is where the Yanks will spend their cash. They might go hard after both Scherzer and Lester since I think Tanaka is likely out for 2015 after TJS. We don't have to replace Robertson. We have a closer in the wings on the cheap right now in Betances and that is the one thing we are flush with in the system.

 

Scherzer seems likely, but I doubt Lester goes to the Yankees -- despite their interest. My bet is on Shields though, he seems like the kind of player they've been targeting in free agency lately. Robertson may very well accept a QO. Teams have been overvaluing that draft for mid-tier free agents.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hanley is not a perennial 4-5 WAR player. Like I said before, he's on a downturn in his career. He had an 86 game blip last yr. other than that, he hasn't been a 5 WAR player since 2009. And this isn't a guy to compare vs ellsbury. Jacoby had two injuries due to collisions. Otherwise, he's been durable. Hanley hasn't been durable and misses time with tweaks and pulls all the time. He's an injury prone, poor fielding hitter already on the decline. He's gonna get paid, but there won't be one "stupid owner" to give him more than $15 mil a yr for more than 5 yrs

[Palodios]

Hanley is not a perennial 4-5 WAR player. Like I said before, he's on a downturn in his career. He had an 86 game blip last yr. other than that, he hasn't been a 5 WAR player since 2009. And this isn't a guy to compare vs ellsbury. Jacoby had two injuries due to collisions. Otherwise, he's been durable. Hanley hasn't been durable and misses time with tweaks and pulls all the time. He's an injury prone, poor fielding hitter already on the decline. He's gonna get paid, but there won't be one "stupid owner" to give him more than $15 mil a yr for more than 5 yrs

 

Shortstops get beat up because of the physically demanding position. Looking at the Reyes and Tulo contracts, I don't see him getting much lower than those guys. The other factor is that the teams who will need shortstops next year include the Dodgers, Yankees, and potentially the Tigers or Red Sox.

[seabeachfred]

This off season could be different for the high spending Yankees Fred. The free agent pool of position players is thin. Of course that won't stop them from spending exorbitantly on front line pitching. Maybe they can make some trades but who in their farm system could be used as chips for one or more impact players?

 

Both the Yankees and Sox have several big holes to fill to get back to playoff contention at this point.

 

Give me Lester and Shields on the mound (costs us no players and only money---which Prune Face has plenty of) Resign Cespedes and get Victorino healthy and we could be right in it next season if we also bring back Koji and lose Mujica and Breslow. Mookie in center and Bradley in Pawtucket or somewhere in the NL And next season either Bogaerts does it or he is also on the way out the way Middlebrooks most likely will be this winter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, Tulo has been transcendent when healthy. Hanley has had one amazing season in the last 6, and it happened to be an injury plagued season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Shane Greene is definitely putting himself in line for a starting gig in 2015

[redsoxrules]

And now your stuck with Ellsbury LOL

2.6 WAR with just over a month left in the season. Not even going to hit 50SB.

I figured Ells would have a few great years before we'd starting seeing seasons like this but maybe he's already losing a step lol.

[Bellhorn04]

And now your stuck with Ellsbury LOL

2.6 WAR with just over a month left in the season. Not even going to hit 50SB.

I figured Ells would have a few great years before we'd starting seeing seasons like this but maybe he's already losing a step lol.

 

Better than McCann's 1.2 and Beltran's -0.1 though.

[Station 13]

it seems the d-WAR is what is affecting his overall WAR. He should be a 4-5WAR with better dWAR. He hasn't lost the ability to hit the ball or run the bases.

[redsoxrules]

He's under his career averages

[Station 13]

He's under his career averages

 

His OPS+ is identical.

[redsoxrules]

Every other category he's below his averages by a sizeable margin.

[Behindenemylines]

That the conversation got to the $panks signing both Scherzer and Lester is right in line with their budget. Their budget consists of a blank check and keep dumping the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in the roster because eventually one or two of those big contracts might get them another championship. CC gets hurt so go get another 30 million a year pitcher. Tanaka may need TJohn so go get another 30 million a year pitcher. This is why many hate them so much!

[seabeachfred]

Better than McCann's 1.2 and Beltran's -0.1 though.

 

And a helluva lot better than what we have gotten from Bradley......which is close to nothing.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ellsbury hasn't been our problem. He's gonna have a lower WAR than last yr, but he'll be over 3. He and Gardner have been solid. It's the other 7 spots in the lineup that suck

[a700hitter]

The Yankees should not be messing around with an attempt to bring back Tanaka this season. Their only decision should be whether rest and rehab will heal him completely for next season. If not, he should be getting the TJ ASAP.

[Spudboy]

The Yankees should not be messing around with an attempt to bring back Tanaka this season. Their only decision should be whether rest and rehab will heal him completely for next season. If not, he should be getting the TJ ASAP.

 

I said about the same thing when he went down. There is nothing to be gained by putting him back out there this season. The Yankess aren't going anywhere this year. They should protect that massive investment by getting TJS and getting him back as soon as he is fully recovered. I doubt that there are enough platelets in the world to fix that elbow.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think they might actually try to get him back to see if he needs TJS. Here's the deal, if he needs TJS, doing it now or in September doesn't change anything. 2015 would be cooked for him regardless. If he comes back this yr and dominates as usual and stays healthy, then he might actually heal enough to make it through 2015.