Brock Holt

[BigPapi]

Brock Holt's Magic has been gone since the all star break. He has been pretty dreadful since the break ended. .219 average, .549 slugging, and a dreadful .278 on base percentage (certainly not lead off worthy). Unless his numbers take an up turn in these remaining games, there is no question that he should start the season out of the starting lineup and just be the super utility guy. He had a great run from may to mid July, but essentially his last 200 at bats he has been terrible.

[a700hitter]

You also have WMB for 5 years at league min/arbitration.

They have me at the league minimum too and I like Middlebrooks can't play with the big boys. He's useless-- a big lug that is there solely because he has HR power, but he has 2 HRs in almost 200 ABs. He has played himself out of consideration for 2015. I wouldn't even have him at the big league camp in March.

[Elktonnick]

One shouldn't base Holt's possible starting role next year solely on his post ASB stats. This is Holt's first year playing an extended season. He has started 93 consecutive games leading off. Given that workload and the fact that he he is a rookie it is normal and expected that he would have a drop off in his hitting stats. As of right now Holt will be starting next year for the Boston Red Sox.

[dupree]

Where will he be starting tho?

The outfield is packed and I don't see him being our 3rd baseman so where will he be starting at?

[Elktonnick]

Unless there is a major acquisition, as of right now he is starting at either short or 3rd IMHO.

[dupree]

I could see at most he will be a super utility man. As far as the position of 3rd goes it's a position of power across the league. Holt doesn't figure to have that much power. WMB is a player with power and maybe without injuries and finding his swing and having good quality at bats then he would figure to be the 3rd baseman of the future. But if he don't then I see the FO bringing in someone else to man that position but the FO and the scouts have seen WMB potential and they keep giving him more and more chances to live up to that potential. Winter ball with determine the way they go in the offseason with who they bring in or not dealing with 3rd base. Boggey is a young kid and had a tough first year in the league to say the least. If Holt had any chance at all it would to be a bridge for Boggey until he reaches his potential.

 

The outfield is packed now with Cespedes, Craig, Vic, Castillo, Nava so I don't see much opportunity there unless we have a lot of injuries but we have Bryce and Hassan in the minors both with power so it's packed and playing time with me hard for Holt IMHO.

[Elktonnick]

Holt has cajones and heart. Castillo is yet to see a pitch. WMB can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. Bogie who chokes in the clutch may find himself,or may be he won't. Quite frankly Holt is a better defender than either Bogie or WMB and has great baseball savy something neither Bogie nor WMB have. You can wait for WMB, Bogie JBJ and Castillo to find themselves if you wish but right now my money is on the "little engine that could" Brock Holt. If Cherrington is dumb enough to trade him (which he is) I hope a front line starter or a consistent power hitter is part of the mix.

[dupree]

^Agreed. This offseason will be interesting to say the least. The rotation is the main key to this team getting back to what last year was. With the in season moves of Ben the team is positioned organizationally and financially to go after top pitchers to allow the offense to bring home wins. Castillo is going to be in CF next year and leading off that is a fact and will play no matter his issues due to his contract. Pieces will be moves around to bring in more talent with having assets in our strong farm system to help the big league club with using them as trade chips. Holt is nice to have because he can play soo many positions and can be plugged into the top of the order. But the FO will do whatever it has to to put the best team on the field for 2015. They will not go thru the season they had this year again. WMB and Boggey will be given their opportunities if they can take advantage is up them. The left side of the infield is the best question mark in my opinion, the rotation with be addressed in a big way it just depends on how the young boys do of they have a job or not.

[Elktonnick]

I agree with everything except " the FO will do whatever it has to to put the best team on the field for 2015. " I don't think they will do whatever it takes to put the best team on the field in 2015. For example they weren't willing to give Lester the contract offer that he wanted. Now they may change their mind. We'll see. But I have my doubts that they are going to be willing to give the number of years on deal to sign a front line starter. Edited September 7, 2014 by Elktonnick

[jacksonianmarch]

Brock Holt had an unsustainably hight BABIP. He's back to what he is, a scab with heart

[dupree]

I agree with everything except " the FO will do whatever it has to to put the best team on the field for 2015. " I don't think they will do whatever it takes to put the best team on the field in 2015. For example they weren't willing to give Lester the contract offer that he wanted. Now they may change their mind. We'll see. But I have my doubts that they are going to be willing to give the number of years on deal to sign a front line starter.

They may not want to but they will have to spend the money and years to be competitive in the tough AL east. This year showed how much pitching means to a team. Im glad the FO pulled the trigger as they did to make moves in the season so they could focus on the area of starting rotation in the offseason. This also allows them to get a look at the youth in the organization to see who has the potential to become front line talent. I applaud them for that. As far as Lester I'd say he'll be the first offseason addition.

[seabeachfred]

They may not want to but they will have to spend the money and years to be competitive in the tough AL east. This year showed how much pitching means to a team. Im glad the FO pulled the trigger as they did to make moves in the season so they could focus on the area of starting rotation in the offseason. This also allows them to get a look at the youth in the organization to see who has the potential to become front line talent. I applaud them for that. As far as Lester I'd say he'll be the first offseason addition.

 

Notice you and my pal Elktonnick had a good friendly exchange and did it in a gentlemanly manner. You can agree or disagree but the way you did it showed real class. I hope you're right about Lester even if I have my doubts. BTW, try to post more often here if you can. I enjoy reading your missives and you certainly seem to know the game well. You also don't pull any punches but do it in a classy manner. I sometimes wish I could show much control when I'm tempted to go off the deep end.

[a700hitter]

Middlebrooks will not be invited to big league camp in March 2015. He has played himself out of consideration for 3B. Barring an acquisition, next season the third baseman will be Holt or Betts. 2 HRs in 200 ABs with a .180 average ends the discussion. There is no hint of any potential in that performance. He has a long road back, and it will start in AAA. Another offer day with 2 k's for AOJr. He will be in AAA too.

[Elktonnick]

Holt's BABIP wasn't insurmountably high. True he has come down but that has more to do with this being his rookie year and until yesterday and today he has started 93 games without a break Now I confess my bias against over reliance on certain sabermetric stats such as BABIP which are more retrospective than prospective.

 

If you haven't already seen it I refer you to Jeff Wiser blog artcle on BABIP . "Each hitter has an individual BABIP but because these can fluctuate so wildly from season to season it can be hard to pin down until we have several seasons of data to work with."

[vjcsmoke]

I think Holt will be a good player. Maybe not a starter but with his ability to play multiple positions, lead off, and hit, he's a good player to have on a very good contract. I feel we keep him unless we can get another piece that can help the team.

 

As far as Middlebrooks, yes he has struggled. But I laugh at the idea that he won't even be invited to ST next year. The kid has the potential to hit at all-star levels for the 3b position, .800+ OPS and possibly .850+ if he can ever find his form again and grow from there. The people giving up on Bogaerts already make me laugh even harder.

 

Yes our team struggled, and our young players have struggled. This doesn't mean they are unsalvageable. I'd only trade our talented youngsters in a package for proven talent that would upgrade our roster.

[Elktonnick]

Re Middlebrooks; I am convinced that part of his problem is his reported refusal to wear contact lenses that he was reportedly fitted for but has refused to wear. He clearly has trouble picking up the slider and other breaking balls. I never thought he was a particularly savvy ball player. I hear people talk about his supposed talent but what I see is a player who has failed to adjust to major league pitchers who are preying on his weakness and failure to recognize breaking balls low and away.

[dupree]

^ maybe WMB will have Lasix surgery in the offseason before he starts winter ball and correct his problem.

[dupree]

Notice you and my pal Elktonnick had a good friendly exchange and did it in a gentlemanly manner. You can agree or disagree but the way you did it showed real class. I hope you're right about Lester even if I have my doubts. BTW, try to post more often here if you can. I enjoy reading your missives and you certainly seem to know the game well. You also don't pull any punches but do it in a classy manner. I sometimes wish I could show much control when I'm tempted to go off the deep end.

Thank you SBF. I honestly do love this forum and try to post as often as possible but life gets busy and I don't get a chance to this time of year too often. We are busy on the farm from selling our angus calves, chopping corn and baling hay, to milking cows our dairy cows twice a day everyday, and on top of that I'm an engineer on the railroad so I don't have enough hours of the day to sleep more than 4 to 5 hours per opportunity.

I love the red sox and love to have conversations with all the people on here and see what they think the FO should or should do. Next year has to be better than this year and I have faith our owners will put the money out to make this team competitive no matter who is wearing the Sox uniform.

[a700hitter]

^ maybe WMB will have Lasix surgery in the offseason before he starts winter ball and correct his problem.

Lasik surgery? I think he needs to find a doctor who can do a suck-ectomy.

 

He didn't even offer a glimmer of potential this season. He didn't have anything approaching a hot streak or a power surge in the majors or the minors this season. The only thing that will possibly keep him in the organizational mix this season is that Cechinni didn't do much to force the issue by having a very meh season. If Cechinni had stepped up WMB would have been remove from his path. As it is, Holt and Betts are better options than Middlebrooks for next season. Add to that the fact that Bogaerts may not be the SS of the future, he is a good candidate to get moved to 3rd. I just can't see investing any more time in Middlebrooks.

[a700hitter]

WMB's numbers intrigue me. Look at this 2014 line against lefties : .320/.370/.440/.810.

 

That's in a year where he was terrible at the plate. Maybe he's just a platoon option, but those numbers are very good. Worst case scenario, he replaces Gomes's platoon ABs off the bench, which was worth 6 million a year, and highly productive.

Pal, where did you get these splits. As of today, I see his 2014 righty/lefty OPS split as .521/.512. I don't see any value there.

[Palodios]

Pal, where did you get these splits. As of today, I see his 2014 righty/lefty OPS split as .521/.512. I don't see any value there.

 

Those splits are a month old. WMB has fallen off a cliff since. His career numbers do still show that trend however.

[Elktonnick]

Platoon Middlebrooks with whom? He really can only play 3rd and perhaps 1st. They have already at least 5 guys who can play 1st. Napoli Craig, Nava Holt and Ortiz. Gomes is an outfielder who could play left or right field and whose personality lights up a clubhouse. Middlebrooks is a 25 watt bulb who no one ever claimed was a spark plug. Untli he learns to adjust to a major league breaking ball he has no value.

[a700hitter]

It is very difficult to carry platoon players on today's pitching heavy rosters. Benches are small. Basically, you need a catcher, and a couple of infielders and outfielders who can play multiple positions. If your roster experiences some injuries, the platoons go out the window and these platoon-type players are pressed into duty against both lefty and righty pitchers and then they are exposed as mediocre at best. Last season, when the team was very healthy, Nava and Gomes were the perfect platoon. This season with the injuries to Victorino and the under-performance of Sizemore and Bradley, Nava and Gomes had to play full time and as a result the stunk up the joint. I see very limited value in pursuing platoon situations. Roster size just doesn't afford that luxury.

[Bellhorn04]

Holt's BABIP wasn't insurmountably high. True he has come down but that has more to do with this being his rookie year and until yesterday and today he has started 93 games without a break Now I confess my bias against over reliance on certain sabermetric stats such as BABIP which are more retrospective than prospective.

 

If you haven't already seen it I refer you to Jeff Wiser blog artcle on BABIP . "Each hitter has an individual BABIP but because these can fluctuate so wildly from season to season it can be hard to pin down until we have several seasons of data to work with."

 

I haven't found the article, but I'm pretty sure that some short-term BABIP's are simply unsustainable, period, such as the .395 Holt had at the All-Star Break.

[Elktonnick]

I guess we won't know for a few years now will we, which by the way was the point Wiser was making.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess we won't know for a few years now will we, which by the way was the point Wiser was making.

 

OK I found the article. I certainly get the point Wiser is making, that some hitters are going to have a higher BABip than others over the careers, regardless of luck. But what he's saying is that we should expect BABip's fluctuating in a certain range, say .270 to .330, instead of being .300 for everybody.

 

A .395 BABip is not sustainable by anybody, period. Wiser notes that Miguel's Cabrera's career BABip is .346. I would guess that is as high as anybody currently in MLB has been able to sustain over their careers.

[Elktonnick]

The point is that BABIP is just one of many sabermetrics. It is subject to interpretation as Wiser points out. Regarding Holt, of course he was super hot in the spring. Of course he was destined to cool off. The BABIP is just a metric which explains to the statistically minded what any knowledgeable fan already knew. But he also is the classic Pete Rose or Wade Boggs type of hitter who can hit to any field and can adjust well to pitchers who make adjustments to him. He is not a JBJ type of hitter with a long swing unwilling or unable to change his approach to fit the situation. I believe Holt will have a higher than 300 BABIP (and hit around 300 consistently) if you place credence in such a metric because I've seen virtually every one of his at bats not because I place any value in BABIP as a meaningful metric to predict future results especially after less than several seasons.

[seabeachfred]

Thank you SBF. I honestly do love this forum and try to post as often as possible but life gets busy and I don't get a chance to this time of year too often. We are busy on the farm from selling our angus calves, chopping corn and baling hay, to milking cows our dairy cows twice a day everyday, and on top of that I'm an engineer on the railroad so I don't have enough hours of the day to sleep more than 4 to 5 hours per opportunity.

I love the red sox and love to have conversations with all the people on here and see what they think the FO should or should do. Next year has to be better than this year and I have faith our owners will put the money out to make this team competitive no matter who is wearing the Sox uniform.

 

Wow Dupree, I stand corrected. Let me amend that to say try and post here when you can. You're a busy man. I'm retired so I do have a lot of time on my hands to play around this board. Are you from the Midwest by any chance? I married a Midwest girl and I think they are the best.

[Spudboy]

The point is that BABIP is just one of many sabermetrics. It is subject to interpretation as Wiser points out. Regarding Holt, of course he was super hot in the spring. Of course he was destined to cool off. The BABIP is just a metric which explains to the statistically minded what any knowledgeable fan already knew. But he also is the classic Pete Rose or Wade Boggs type of hitter who can hit to any field and can adjust well to pitchers who make adjustments to him. He is not a JBJ type of hitter with a long swing unwilling or unable to change his approach to fit the situation. I believe Holt will have a higher than 300 BABIP (and hit around 300 consistently) if you place credence in such a metric because I've seen virtually every one of his at bats not because I place any value in BABIP as a meaningful metric to predict future results especially after less than several seasons.

 

Excellent post!

 

I have seen almost all of Holt's AB too and have seen him adapt within one AB, within a game , or from game to game.

 

He's just a skilled hitter with a nice, compact stroke that can make contact most of the time. He knows how to take what is given and send it the other way.

 

Those on base skills will never go out of fashion. Guys like Holt can fuel a lineup and help create runs.

 

I'm not sure if he will be a .300 hitter all the time but I bet he will be at or about .270-.280 with an OBP over .320 much of the time. Combined with good game speed he is very valuable to an offense.

[a700hitter]

Excellent post!

 

I have seen almost all of Holt's AB too and have seen him adapt within one AB, within a game , or from game to game.

 

He's just a skilled hitter with a nice, compact stroke that can make contact most of the time. He knows how to take what is given and send it the other way.

 

Those on base skills will never go out of fashion. Guys like Holt can fuel a lineup and help create runs.

 

I'm not sure if he will be a .300 hitter all the time but I bet he will be at or about .270-.280 with an OBP over .320 much of the time. Combined with good game speed he is very valuable to an offense.

He has a good batting eye and he hits the ball where it is pitched.