Lackey contract

[Palodios]

The team hasn't paid market value on long term contracts since 2011. Market value may be insane, but 70 million for Lester is a joke.

 

Lackey is a strange case. I think his public image was hurt so badly over the years that he might just want to get away from it all.

[a700hitter]

There have been multiple reports that Lackey may retire instead of pitching for the league minimum.

It is not paranoia to be concerned about losing the team's three best pitchers -- four if Koji retires-- because the team is to cheap to pay market value.

I don't think your concern is at all paranoid. Lester's value is going up as he continues to pitch well. He is at the top of the FA pitcher class. The Sox have not showed any recent inclination to pay market value for long term contracts. Also, the Yankees and the Dodgers will open their wallets for the. Guy and when they do, Ben will fold his tent and go home. I think that our window for retaining Lester will be closed if we don't do an in-season deal.

 

As for Lackey, the minimum wage clause was merely a part of negotiations. He never expected that the clause would be implemented. A guy at the end of his productive career is not going to want to play for pocket change. I expect a lot of posturing by him to get out of the deal. He has a lot of capital right now as he is our second best pitcher and he was instrumental in winning a world championship. He is going to expect respect (I.e., $). There is no way that he plays for us for the minimum next season unless it is coupled with a back ended 2-3 year guaranteed deal for big bucks. It will be a very complex negotiation and it is possible that we might lose him.

 

As for koji, he will be 40 next year and the FO has consistently demonstrated a reluctance for multiple year deals for relievers, so it is very Possible that we lose him.

 

Those who think this is paranoid thinking will be the first ones rationalizing the loss of these guys if it happens.

[User Name]

That's because generally speaking, paying "market value" for long-term contracts usually results in an albatross for the team, as has been proven over and over and over and over again. The 70 million starting offer was low, but it was an initial offer, and what is "market value" for Lester? He's not an undisputed ace or #1. Let them work it out.

 

As for Lackey, seriously? He repaired his image last year. It's a ploy to get more money, nothing else. That public image BS means crap if they're making their dough.

[Palodios]

That's because generally speaking, paying "market value" for long-term contracts usually results in an albatross for the team, as has been proven over and over and over and over again. The 70 million starting offer was low, but it was an initial offer, and what is "market value" for Lester? He's not an undisputed ace or #1. Let them work it out.

 

70 million was the last known number. Market value is probably 140-170. How can you debate that the Red Sox have not offered market value here?

 

As for Lackey, seriously? He repaired his image last year. It's a ploy to get more money, nothing else. That public image BS means crap if they're making their dough.

 

These guys do have egos. They want to come back to their city and be heroes. How will Lackey be remembered?

[Palodios]

As for koji, he will be 40 next year and the FO has consistently demonstrated a reluctance for multiple year deals for relievers, so it is very Possible that we lose him.

 

Even Rivera only received 1 year deals after 40. He shouldn't be expecting a multi-year deal, but 10-15 million is not out of the question for a guy who hasn't really gotten a big payday in his career.

[User Name]

70 million was the last known number. Market value is probably 140-170. How can you debate that the Red Sox have not offered market value here?

 

140 million is not market value for Lester. 5/100 is market value for Lester. You are placing him in a tier he doesn't belong to. What you are asking is for the Sox to massively overpay for a pitcher, fully knowing that those are the kinds of contracts most likely to fail. You can't ask for the FO to play it smart then ask for them to break their own rules and overpay for Lester masquerading it as "market value". Can't have it both ways. They either execute their plan to avoid large long-term contracts or go balls to the wall so they can find themselves in a Yankees-like situation.

[a700hitter]

Even Rivera only received 1 year deals after 40. He shouldn't be expecting a multi-year deal, but 10-15 million is not out of the question for a guy who hasn't really gotten a big payday in his career.

The Sox offerd him a multi-year contract at the end, but he declined it, because he wanted to go out as a Yankee. The Yankees used that as leverage. Koji doesn't have the same loyalty to the Red Sox that Mo had with the Skanks.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think I told you guys this, but the day after Thanksgiving last year, I saw Lucchino on the side of the road trying to hail a cab, asked him if he needed a ride, and he popped in the car (oddly enough).

 

He told me about the Yanks signing McCann, which had not gotten out yet.

 

I asked him specifically about the Lackey contract. He said "You know, you don't want to piss him off. He's going to say 'Guys, come on. I know I signed that contract but come on, league min??'".

 

He sounded very much like they weren't going to straight up exercise the deal.

 

My honest guess is that they give him kind of an ultimatum - 2 years/16-18mm, or exercise the contract. They'll use it as a negotiation tactic.

[Bellhorn04]

140 million is not market value for Lester. 5/100 is market value for Lester. You are placing him in a tier he doesn't belong to. What you are asking is for the Sox to massively overpay for a pitcher, fully knowing that those are the kinds of contracts most likely to fail. You can't ask for the FO to play it smart then ask for them to break their own rules and overpay for Lester masquerading it as "market value". Can't have it both ways. They either execute their plan to avoid large long-term contracts or go balls to the wall so they can find themselves in a Yankees-like situation.

 

This doesn't really match up with what Lucchino said recently, which was a reiteration of things this FO has said before. Which is, they don't like handing out big free agent contracts, but they recognize there are circumstances in which it has to be done.

[a700hitter]

I think I told you guys this, but the day after Thanksgiving last year, I saw Lucchino on the side of the road trying to hail a cab, asked him if he needed a ride, and he popped in the car (oddly enough).

 

He told me about the Yanks signing McCann, which had not gotten out yet.

 

I asked him specifically about the Lackey contract. He said "You know, you don't want to piss him off. He's going to say 'Guys, come on. I know I signed that contract but come on, league min??'".

 

He sounded very much like they weren't going to straight up exercise the deal.

 

My honest guess is that they give him kind of an ultimatum - 2 years/16-18mm, or exercise the contract. They'll use it as a negotiation tactic.

 

Dempster got 2/$26 and he was a dog. Lackey will cost at least the same.

[Palodios]

140 million is not market value for Lester. 5/100 is market value for Lester. You are placing him in a tier he doesn't belong to. What you are asking is for the Sox to massively overpay for a pitcher, fully knowing that those are the kinds of contracts most likely to fail. You can't ask for the FO to play it smart then ask for them to break their own rules and overpay for Lester masquerading it as "market value". Can't have it both ways. They either execute their plan to avoid large long-term contracts or go balls to the wall so they can find themselves in a Yankees-like situation.

 

All reports claim he is worth the 140 million. He struggled in 2012, but otherwise he has been extremely healthy, a 200 innings borderline 1 or top #2 guy. Pitching to David Ross instead of Salty seems to have significantly helped his numbers. The Yankees will need an arm, the Tigers will need an arm, the Jays, O's... Everyone will be after him because he is years younger than Shields, and a hundred million less than Max.

 

I want the Red Sox to offer 100-110. It isn't a great move, but he is a borderline #1 pitcher who has proven to be successful in the AL East, and he is willing to accept slightly less than the 140 million he will receive on the open market. He will earn his keep for the first two years, stink/get hurt for 1-2 years, and be a decent innings eater veteran for the team for the rest. I understand all this, but he is exactly the kind of guy you give a long term contract deal.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dempster got 2/$26 and he was a dog. Lackey will cost at least the same.

 

No chance. Not when they have him by the balls for $500k next season.

 

They can virtually say "Ok, we'll give you $8mm next year rather than the $500k, but you have to take a 10-12mm deal in 2016". Lackey isn't a FA.

[jacksonianmarch]

All reports claim he is worth the 140 million. He struggled in 2012, but otherwise he has been extremely healthy, a 200 innings borderline 1 or top #2 guy. Pitching to David Ross instead of Salty seems to have significantly helped his numbers. The Yankees will need an arm, the Tigers will need an arm, the Jays, O's... Everyone will be after him because he is years younger than Shields, and a hundred million less than Max.

 

I want the Red Sox to offer 100-110. It isn't a great move, but he is a borderline #1 pitcher who has proven to be successful in the AL East, and he is willing to accept slightly less than the 140 million he will receive on the open market. He will earn his keep for the first two years, stink/get hurt for 1-2 years, and be a decent innings eater veteran for the team for the rest. I understand all this, but he is exactly the kind of guy you give a long term contract deal.

 

You guys do understand that Lester is having a career season right now, right? If he stays on this pace, he will have a career low WHIP, ERA, K/9IP and BB/9IP, right? And he turns 31 before next yr, so he isn't exactly old. He's gonna get $25 mil per year on a 5 yr deal MINIMUM. If he gets a longer deal, the AAV will come down

[User Name]

This doesn't really match up with what Lucchino said recently, which was a reiteration of things this FO has said before. Which is, they don't like handing out big free agent contracts, but they recognize there are circumstances in which it has to be done.

 

You're taking it out of context. 5/100 for Lester would be a big FA contract. The extension for Pedroia was a big contract. We've gotten so caught up in the MLB gold rush that we've forgotten that 5 years at close to 20 million dollars is still a significant commitment.

Edited May 16, 2014 by User Name?

[User Name]

You guys do understand that Lester is having a career season right now, right? If he stays on this pace, he will have a career low WHIP, ERA, K/9IP and BB/9IP, right? And he turns 31 before next yr, so he isn't exactly old. He's gonna get $25 mil per year on a 5 yr deal MINIMUM. If he gets a longer deal, the AAV will come down

 

5/25 is 125 million, which in itself is an overpay, but doesn't touch the 140-160 million madness some are expecting here.

[Dojji]

You guys do understand that Lester is having a career season right now, right?

 

Like the career season he had last year?

 

Sorry once you get a sample of over 40 starts, statistical burps become much more implausible

 

Also no way on God's green earth John Lackey gets signed through age 41. Not. Happening.

[Palodios]

5/25 is 125 million, which in itself is an overpay, but doesn't touch the 140-160 million madness some are expecting here.

 

I don't see why you think 140-160 is so out of the question here.

 

His numbers are extremely similar to Zack Greinke before his $147m contract. Both are healthy starters who pitch 200-210 ish innings every year. Greinke had a 3.70 career ERA at signing, Lester has a 3.72 ERA now. Lester will be two years older than Greinke was at his signing, and that is a significant factor. However, Lester has been pitching in the AL East, is a proven playoff stud, and doesn't have concerns pitching in a high pressure environment. Throw in a dumb owner, and you're at 160.

[User Name]

Like the career season he had last year?

 

Sorry once you get a sample of over 40 starts, statistical burps become much more implausible

 

Also no way on God's green earth John Lackey gets signed through age 41. Not. Happening.

 

I don't understand what you're getting at here. Last year doesn't even sniff Lester's best three years overall.

[User Name]

I don't see why you think 140-160 is so out of the question here.

 

His numbers are extremely similar to Zack Greinke before his $147m contract. Both are healthy starters who pitch 200-210 ish innings every year. Greinke had a 3.70 career ERA at signing, Lester has a 3.72 ERA now. Lester will be two years older than Greinke was at his signing, and that is a significant factor. However, Lester has been pitching in the AL East, is a proven playoff stud, and doesn't have concerns pitching in a high pressure environment. Throw in a dumb owner, and you're at 160.

 

Because ERA isn't the only comparable between pitchers, and Lester's peripherals were trending South for years before last year. He's still a fringe #1, but he's not an elite guy that should be making 25+ per year. Greinke's contract was stupid too by the way. Also, i don't think you understand exactly what i mean: I'm saying Lester might just get a stupid contract, but that he won't do it here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Because ERA isn't the only comparable between pitchers, and Lester's peripherals were trending South for years before last year. He's still a fringe #1, but he's not an elite guy that should be making 25+ per year. Greinke's contract was stupid too by the way. Also, i don't think you understand exactly what i mean: I'm saying Lester might just get a stupid contract, but that he won't do it here.

 

Problem is that elite guys are now making Kershaw money (7/215, 30.7mm AAV), and that's now the market. So guys like Scherzer will fall into the 7/190 scale, and guys like Lester will fall into the 7/170 scale.

 

So, like it or not, Lester's market, as set by Kershaw, is now in the 25mm range.

[User Name]

Problem is that elite guys are now making Kershaw money (7/215, 30.7mm AAV), and that's now the market. So guys like Scherzer will fall into the 7/190 scale, and guys like Lester will fall into the 7/170 scale.

 

So, like it or not, Lester's market, as set by Kershaw, is now in the 25mm range.

 

5/25 is 125 million. Lester's not getting seven years, and he probably won't get a 25 AAV either.

 

You pulled that 170 million number out of thin air. That's not Lester's market.

Edited May 16, 2014 by User Name?

[SoxFanForsyth]

5/25 is 125 million. Lester's not getting seven years, and he probably won't get a 25 AAV either.

 

You pulled that 170 million number out of thin air. That's not Lester's market.

 

If Lester doesn't get 7 years, no he won't get $170mm, but he's going to get that kind of AAV, no doubt. That's just the market.

 

Greinke 6/147, Hamels 7/153, Tanaka 7/155 (plus $20mm required bid), Cain 6/127.5

 

All of these are right at or right around the $23-25mm deal, and they are all Lester-type pitchers.

 

Whether he gets that 7th year, who knows. But all of these deals with the exception of Tanaka, who signed as an unknown, were signed prior to the Kershaw deal, which bumped the market.

 

You're living in a fantasy world if you don't think Lester gets somewhere between 24-26mm annually. The Sox won't give it to him, but someone most certainly will.

[User Name]

Hasn't that been my point all along? I've said like five times that Lester might get the crazy contract, but not from the Red Sox. I literally said just that in the post you initally quoted.

[Palodios]

Because ERA isn't the only comparable between pitchers, and Lester's peripherals were trending South for years before last year. He's still a fringe #1, but he's not an elite guy that should be making 25+ per year. Greinke's contract was stupid too by the way. Also, i don't think you understand exactly what i mean: I'm saying Lester might just get a stupid contract, but that he won't do it here.

 

Lester's K/9( 8.2 to 8), BAA, ERA+(119 to 114) are slightly better. Greinke's BB/9(2.3 to 3.2), WHIP(1.25 to 1.3) are modestly better. There are minor differences, but really, they are as close a comparison as you will find.

[User Name]

Lester's K/9( 8.2 to 8), BAA, ERA+(119 to 114) are slightly better. Greinke's BB/9(2.3 to 3.2), WHIP(1.25 to 1.3) are modestly better. There are minor differences, but really, they are as close a comparison as you will find.

 

No they're not, for several reasons. Greinke signed his contract at 29, and at the time, he had signed for the highest AAV for a pitcher, even though he wasn't a clear #1.

[GomesBeard]

Lester's K/9( 8.2 to 8), BAA, ERA+(119 to 114) are slightly better. Greinke's BB/9(2.3 to 3.2), WHIP(1.25 to 1.3) are modestly better. There are minor differences, but really, they are as close a comparison as you will find.

 

And in the World Series, Lester is 3-0 with a .43 ERA and .762 WHIP.... Those are numbers that could get him paid....

[Palodios]

No they're not, for several reasons. Greinke signed his contract at 29, and at the time, he had signed for the highest AAV for a pitcher, even though he wasn't a clear #1.

 

You will not find a better contract comparison -- maybe you could argue that Lester would get one less year, but we're still looking at 27 * 5 .

[Bellhorn04]

All that really matters is how much the Yankees or the Dodgers would be willing to pay Lester.

[User Name]

You will not find a better contract comparison -- maybe you could argue that Lester would get one less year, but we're still looking at 27 * 5 .

 

Yes i can: Cliff Lee. He had better numbers than Lester, but he signed at a similar age. He could've gotten a bit more money from the Yankees, but not the ridiculous 27 per you're throwing around. In fact, i'm willing to bet neither he nor Scherzer will sniff 27 per, and Lester won't get 6 guaranteed years, nor will Scherzer get 7.

 

Put your money where your keyboard is.

[User Name]

All that really matters is how much the Yankees or the Dodgers would be willing to pay Lester.

 

And there's good reason to think one of them won't be players (the Yankees) and the other will sign Scherzer.