5/6 vs The Cincinatti Vottos

[Palodios]

Red Sox pitching is #3 in the AL right now. Their relievers are awesome, and their starters are just starting to fall into place. If one of the young bats gets hot, the team will go on a tear.

[User Name]

No one needs to "get hot", they just need to stop failing so miserably with RISP as a team. They are getting on base as a unit, but can't get anyone home in the most elemental of situations.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox pitching is #3 in the AL right now. Their relievers are awesome, and their starters are just starting to fall into place. If one of the young bats gets hot, the team will go on a tear.

 

I like your thinking as usual.

 

Bogaerts has been a nightmare with men on base so far, but I think the turnaround will come soon. He needs that one big hit to get some confidence.

[Palodios]

No one needs to "get hot", they just need to stop failing so miserably with RISP as a team. They are getting on base as a unit, but can't get anyone home in the most elemental of situations.

 

WMB, JBJ and XB are hitting .208, .216, and .268 respectively. With runners on, .154, .354, .154. They all know how to draw a walk, but that doesn't help much with RISP. They are the core of the team's future -- they need to start producing runs.

[User Name]

WMB, JBJ and XB are hitting .208, .216, and .268 respectively. With runners on, .154, .354, .154. They all know how to draw a walk, but that doesn't help much with RISP. They are the core of the team's future -- they need to start producing runs.

 

Yeah but it's not just them. They are hitting .222 as a team with RISP, and .239 with runners on. That is pathetic.

[mvp 78]

If JBJ is hitting .354 with runners on, people should never bitch about him.

[a700hitter]

Bradley will be fine. The problem is that he is not playing LF flanking Ellsbury. The difference in this team is the loss of the catalyst at the top of the lineup.

[User Name]

.308 with men on, .357 w/RISP.

[User Name]

Bradley will be fine. The problem is that he is not playing LF flanking Ellsbury. The difference in this team is the loss of the catalyst at the top of the lineup.

 

No, this is false, and silly. It has been stated and proven over and over and over that the problem is the lack of hitting with RISP. The team, as a whole, is doing a fine job of getting on base, especially from the #1 hole since Pedroia took over. The problem is the inability to get people who get on base in. The "we're struggling because Ellsbury is not here" narrative is ridiculous.

[rjortiz]

No, this is false, and silly. It has been stated and proven over and over and over that the problem is the lack of hitting with RISP. The team, as a whole, is doing a fine job of getting on base, especially from the #1 hole since Pedroia took over. The problem is the inability to get people who get on base in. The "we're struggling because Ellsbury is not here" narrative is ridiculous.

 

SSS alert, but Ellsbury has been worth three more runs (0.6 WAR to 0.3 WAR) over Bradley Jr. thus far. Not even enough to push us to .500.

[mvp 78]

Bradley is our best defensive OF since Dewey. Putting him in LF would be a waste.

[Palodios]

Yeah but it's not just them.

 

Sure, but they are a huge part of the problem. Vic in sss, and a few of the other bench bats have been bad, but Nap, WMB and XB have been the biggest contributors.

 

Pedroia .246, Ortiz .286, Gomes .273, Sizemore .318, AJ .240, Ross .300, Herrara .669, Napoli .171, Victorino .125, Nava .091, Carp .071.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Palodios

[rjortiz]

Bradley is our best defensive OF since Dewey. Putting him in LF would be a waste.

 

Depends. Great defensive CF's tend to be elite defensive COF's.

[User Name]

Depends. Great defensive CF's tend to be elite defensive COF's.

 

But playing 81 games in LF at Fenway greatly diminishes defensive impact, which is what i think MVP was trying to get at.

[mvp 78]

Depends. Great defensive CF's tend to be elite defensive COF's.

 

Right, but putting him in LF at Fenway would be a waste. If Ells was here, I'd put him back in LF as I think Bradley is better than Ells and has a much stronger arm.

[mvp 78]

But playing 81 games in LF at Fenway greatly diminishes defensive impact, which is what i think MVP was trying to get at.

 

I just want to see Ells play LF at Fenway again and have him collide with an IF and break into a million pieces.

[User Name]

SSS alert, but Ellsbury has been worth three more runs (0.6 WAR to 0.3 WAR) over Bradley Jr. thus far. Not even enough to push us to .500.

 

Not three more runs, but rather a third of a win.

[rjortiz]

But playing 81 games in LF at Fenway greatly diminishes defensive impact, which is what i think MVP was trying to get at.

 

That's true. I can't find the exact number, but I assume the UZR adjustment for LF's in Fenway Park is pretty steep. Crawford's UZR decline from 2010 to 2011 is a good example.

[rjortiz]

Not three more runs, but rather a third of a win.

 

WAR divides adjusted UZR and wRAA by 10, so it's almost the same thing.

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't put Bradley in a category with Dewey Evans. Bradley has a strong arm. Dewey had a howitzer. Players just did not go first to third on him.

 

I don't know what the metrics show, but I wouldn't be surprised if they showed that Victorino is the better OFer than Bradley. I always thought Victorino was the best OFer on the 2013 squad.

 

People forget about Darren Lewis. He might have been the best Boston OFer since Dewey.

 

Since Spring Training it has been frequently discussed how Farrell was having trouble filling the lead off spot. The loss of Ellsbury from that spot has had a cascading effect in that it has forced Pedroia to lead off -- a position that he has not thrived in. Pedroia is one of our top 2 hitters. He should be batting 3rd in front of Ortiz. Moving him to the lead off spot has disturbed the dynamic of our lineup. It's pretty obvious IMO.

[Palodios]

I don't know what the metrics show, but I wouldn't be surprised if they showed that Victorino is the better OFer than Bradley. I always thought Victorino was the best OFer on the 2013 squad.

 

In all fairness to Bradley, Victorino was the best defensive player in baseball for most of the year until he got banged up making excellent plays against walls.

[rjortiz]

Let's not get focused on finding a single scapegoat for the team's poor performance. Losing 2013 Ellsbury and ineptitude with runners on base are just two factors. Some are larger than others.

 

If we really need a scapegoat, my candidate is Daniel Nava. Long may he rot in Pawtucket.

[GomesBeard]

Just glad they were able to pull out a win last night. Doubront has been crap so far this season. I wonder if he will ever put it together. He's the one I'd like to see gone at some point.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if the 'catalyst' idea about Ellsbury really holds up. If you look at the Yankees offence this year, it has only had a tiny improvement over last year's slapdash squad. Obviously this isn't Ellsbury's fault, since his numbers are pretty good. But I think the 'catalyst' idea might be just that, an idea.

[Bellhorn04]

Just glad they were able to pull out a win last night. Doubront has been crap so far this season. I wonder if he will ever put it together. He's the one I'd like to see gone at some point.

 

If you evaluate him as a cheap, serviceable back-end pitcher though, he's not that bad.

[rjortiz]

Ellsbury's been great offensively, but you don't go from 21-12 to 16-17 because of just one player. No player in the world is a five win difference in 33 games, especially not Ellsbury.

[rjortiz]

Just glad they were able to pull out a win last night. Doubront has been crap so far this season. I wonder if he will ever put it together. He's the one I'd like to see gone at some point.

 

He was fine in 2013 and 2012.

[User Name]

WAR divides adjusted UZR and wRAA by 10, so it's almost the same thing.

 

I disagree on the basis of what the actual UZR formula measures overall. Remember that there's and adjustment/normalization component to a "win" that's not simply a calculation of runs saved/created.

[rjortiz]

I disagree on the basis of what the actual UZR formula measures overall. Remember that there's and adjustment/normalization component to a "win" that's not simply a calculation of runs saved/created.

 

Are you referring to how WAR doesn't consider context of each event on the field?

[mvp 78]

Let's not get focused on finding a single scapegoat for the team's poor performance. Losing 2013 Ellsbury and ineptitude with runners on base are just two factors. Some are larger than others.

 

If we really need a scapegoat, my candidate is Daniel Nava. Long may he rot in Pawtucket.

 

They'd be at .500 if not for his -.5 WAR.