The Jon Lester contract situation

[rjortiz]

The Yankees and now the Dodgers are in a salary/income class by themselves. Even the Phillies are ahead of the Red Sox. Wish some of you guys would look this stuff up before you make judgements.

 

Shut the f*** up. Why don't you go on holiday with Fred?

[reYoukilis]

He comes through when it counts though, even more than Verlander.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

The Yankees and now the Dodgers are in a salary/income class by themselves. Even the Phillies are ahead of the Red Sox. Wish some of you guys would look this stuff up before you make judgements.

But wouldn't that qualify as bean counting?

[rjortiz]

The African runners are getting ready to run the Boston Marathon right now on TV. Grouped at the front. They win this thing every year because they run as a team--especially the Kenyans and Ethiopians. Never as individuals. Salazar as coach did this with his two runners (one British, one American) in the 5000 meters last Olympics, and finished 1-2. That's how you beat the Africans.

 

Idiotic statement after idiotic statement.

[Station 13]

I never thought lester was a great pitcher, I think Lackey's better. I wouldn't put lester in the same class as verlander or schurzer, but hes gonna want a huge payday. I would much rather have david price

 

Lester, a consistent 200ip+. it's highly regarded. He isn't in Verlander class, but few are.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox are re-engaging in contract talks with Lester. There is no word on if he is receptive to re-opening talks. Supposedly the Red Sox raised the value of the initial contract.

 

They do have some leverage here -- accept a deal, or get traded.

[sk7326]

I never thought lester was a great pitcher, I think Lackey's better. I wouldn't put lester in the same class as verlander or schurzer, but hes gonna want a huge payday. I would much rather have david price

 

So would lots of teams, but who cares. Lester is still tremendously valuable - so is Lackey. 200 IP of quality is worth paying for. And the Sox aren't poor - for the price they charge, it's not an either/or thing.

[seabeachfred]

So would lots of teams, but who cares. Lester is still tremendously valuable - so is Lackey. 200 IP of quality is worth paying for. And the Sox aren't poor - for the price they charge, it's not an either/or thing.

 

Is it selfish to want to keep them both????? I don't think more than three of those young pitchers are going to hit it big with us so there is plenty of room for our stalwart two. Jon and John are money pitchers and we only have to look at last year's post-season to see that. I won't say they are better than Scherzer, Price, or Kershaw, but they won their big games and the others didn't. We don't need Doubrant, Peavy and maybe not even Buchholz unless he makes a big improvement, but you team Les and Lack with De La Rosa, Workman and Owens and we could have a good staff, and if Clay does come around we could be in a real advantageous position. Our pitching this season hasn't been bad at all; it is our hitting that's let us down.

[a700hitter]

I believe almost none of what I read anymore. The press is a tool. Whenever I read an article, I ask myself who benefits from this article and then I try to reconcile the information in the article with behavior.

 

Why would the Sox reopen negotiations with Lester with 1 month to go before the trading deadline? Moreover, how and why did this information get into the press? The Red Sox are notoriously tight-lipped about these matters and there is no indication that Lester went to the press. I have to conclude that the Red Sox wanted this story out there. Why? We will find out, but I think they are considering trading him and this story gives them cover to say that they made every effort to sign him. If he gets traded, I am not going to buy any of the propaganda from the FO suits. The pattern has been for teams to keep their star pitchers. Many of those teams have a lot less resources than the Red Sox. Hey Red Sox FO. I am on to you. LOL!

Edited June 30, 2014 by a700hitter

[Palodios]

I think Lester mentioned the original contract offer of 4/70 to his teammates, and it went from him to a teammate who gave the number to the media. I would not be surprised if that is what is happening here -- someone saw him go into Ben's office or heard something and then leaked it.

 

I also believe that now is a good time to reopen negotiations from the Red Sox side, because they do have leverage here because of the trade deadline.

 

I simply refuse to believe that the Red Sox are not ready to give Jon Lester a fair deal.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe almost none of what I read anymore. The press is a tool. Whenever I read an article, I ask myself who benefits from this article and then I try to reconcile the information in the article with behavior.

 

Yes, I'll believe multiple legitimate reports that Jon Lester has agreed to sign with the Boston Red Sox. Until then nothing means anything.

[Spudboy]

I hope the Sox sign him but I have a feeling that they won't.

 

One of my closest friends is a Yankees fan. When I saw him Sunday morning I mentioned the pitching battle between Tanaka and Lester the night before and how good Lester performed. His answer:

 

"They will make a heck of a one-two next season."

 

I hope that I don't have to see Lester wearing pinstripes.

[sk7326]

I think Lester mentioned the original contract offer of 4/70 to his teammates, and it went from him to a teammate who gave the number to the media. I would not be surprised if that is what is happening here -- someone saw him go into Ben's office or heard something and then leaked it.

 

I also believe that now is a good time to reopen negotiations from the Red Sox side, because they do have leverage here because of the trade deadline.

 

I simply refuse to believe that the Red Sox are not ready to give Jon Lester a fair deal.

 

I think their definition of fair could be different than ours. The ownership are not afraid to pay on one hand, but they are pretty hawkish (and always have been) on player compensation. The leverage of the trade is a little silly - since nobody is going to offer a reasonable return without some sort of confidence Lester would resign. So yes, if there is leverage in the "well if he doesn't sign we can trade him to Milwaukee for a bag of donuts" - that is leverage. But from a practical scenario the player has much more say.

 

That said, if the Red Sox re-sign Lester, it will effectively be a "last contract" - since Lester's 10/5 rights will kick in.

[a700hitter]

I think Lester mentioned the original contract offer of 4/70 to his teammates, and it went from him to a teammate who gave the number to the media. I would not be surprised if that is what is happening here -- someone saw him go into Ben's office or heard something and then leaked it.

 

I also believe that now is a good time to reopen negotiations from the Red Sox side, because they do have leverage here because of the trade deadline.

 

I simply refuse to believe that the Red Sox are not ready to give Jon Lester a fair deal.

You are more trusting than me.

 

I think that they are considering trading him and they are probably dangling him out there like red meat, but in the end, I don't think that they can net enough of a return for less than half a season of Lester to be worth the negative impact on the 2014 team and the sour taste for the fans.

[seabeachfred]

I hope the Sox sign him but I have a feeling that they won't.

 

One of my closest friends is a Yankees fan. When I saw him Sunday morning I mentioned the pitching battle between Tanaka and Lester the night before and how good Lester performed. His answer:

 

"They will make a heck of a one-two next season."

 

I hope that I don't have to see Lester wearing pinstripes.

 

We Red Sox fans should all be totally united in this. The front office offered Lester a humiliating and embarrassing offer last April that wasn't worth the paper it was printed on. No one should side with the front office on this.....they have been crying poverty ever since they traded away those divas in 2012 but they proved otherwise with their spending before last season. They h ave the money; Henry is a billionaire and, besides teams have been signing their ace pitchers to extensions the past few years because they know how valuable quality pitching is. Personally, I think Cherington and board of suits upstairs figured since Jon was very vocal about staying in Boston they thought they could get him with that insulting offer. I suppose if we lose him, which most likely will happen, the front office will come out w ith one of their patented smear campaigns designed to make themselves look good at the expense of our best pitcher. Please my friends, if it comes to this don't buy it for a second.

[sk7326]

We Red Sox fans should all be totally united in this. The front office offered Lester a humiliating and embarrassing offer last April that wasn't worth the paper it was printed on. No one should side with the front office on this.....they have been crying poverty ever since they traded away those divas in 2012 but they proved otherwise with their spending before last season. They h ave the money; Henry is a billionaire and, besides teams have been signing their ace pitchers to extensions the past few years because they know how valuable quality pitching is. Personally, I think Cherington and board of suits upstairs figured since Jon was very vocal about staying in Boston they thought they could get him with that insulting offer. I suppose if we lose him, which most likely will happen, the front office will come out w ith one of their patented smear campaigns designed to make themselves look good at the expense of our best pitcher. Please my friends, if it comes to this don't buy it for a second.

 

They have never not had the money. The 2012 trade allowed them to move diminishing assets. They could whine about budgetary limitations, but the limitations are ones they set. This is not an argument for them being stupid - but it is to point out it is a constraint that does not exist to the degree they claim.

[a700hitter]

They have never not had the money. The 2012 trade allowed them to move diminishing assets. They could whine about budgetary limitations, but the limitations are ones they set. This is not an argument for them being stupid - but it is to point out it is a constraint that does not exist to the degree they claim.

^ This sums it up perfectly. If they would be on the level that they didn't think a player was worth the investment, people would still disagree, but at least that would be genuine. This phoney baloney cry of poverty is completely disingenuous. Edited June 30, 2014 by a700hitter

[Palodios]

You are more trusting than me.

 

I think that they are considering trading him and they are probably dangling him out there like red meat, but in the end, I don't think that they can net enough of a return for less than half a season of Lester to be worth the negative impact on the 2014 team and the sour taste for the fans.

 

The real problem for the FO is that Jon Lester is ironclad. You can't smear the guy. They went out of the way to protect him from the beergate smearing, and there is absolutely nothing else there.

 

Also, teams unwilling to part with a bluechip for a guy like Jon Lester will not go anywhere in the playoffs. The White Sox traded a year and a half of overpriced Peavy for a top 100 prospect, and the Cubs traded half a year of Garza for one as well. I see absolutely no reason why the Red Sox can't do the same with Lester -- those guys aren't even in the same class as him.

[a700hitter]

The real problem for the FO is that Jon Lester is ironclad. You can't smear the guy. They went out of the way to protect him from the beergate smearing, and there is absolutely nothing else there.

 

Also, teams unwilling to part with a bluechip for a guy like Jon Lester will not go anywhere in the playoffs. The White Sox traded a year and a half of overpriced Peavy for a top 100 prospect, and the Cubs traded half a year of Garza for one as well. I see absolutely no reason why the Red Sox can't do the same with Lester -- those guys aren't even in the same class as him.

Who was the top 100 prospect in the Peavy deal?

[sk7326]

Who was the top 100 prospect in the Peavy deal?

 

Iglesias. So a one dimensional - probable non-All Star starter. Which is a solid return. But that was for a year plus of control for Peavy. Lester you are trading him for a dozen starts maybe ... that is a much different return. The White Sox traded Peavy with another year of control at an "above average innings eater" sort of salary aside from an option he was never going to trigger and got back a fringy starter.

 

I think teams are smarter now. You can get a larger return on Lester yes - but the window to make THAT trade has passed. When you are selling an extra month of control and whatnot. I see guys on the board bleating that Lester is not as good as Kershaw, Scherzer whatever. But who cares - even if you think Lester is more of a #2 than a true #1 (and I am going by evaluation parlance - #1 means top ten or so starters in the league) - you CANNOT navigate a 162 game season without guys like him. As fun as it is to say that "you need an ace to win, now get off of my lawn" - that is just not true. Hell, we saw it last season.

[Palodios]

Iglesias. So a one dimensional - probable non-All Star starter. .

 

Nope, he went to the Tigers. The White Sox got Avisail Garcia.

 

Also, Mike Olt for injury-ridden Garza happened just last year.

 

 

Teams haven't gotten smarter -- with the new wild card spots, more teams are going to be still in it, and fighting for a spot, thus trade targets are more valuable.

Edited June 30, 2014 by Palodios

[a700hitter]

Nope, he went to the Tigers. The White Sox got Avisail Garcia.

 

Also, Mike Olt for injury-ridden Garza happened just last year.

 

 

Teams haven't gotten smarter -- with the new wild card spots, more teams are going to be still in it, and fighting for a spot, thus trade targets are more valuable.

That caliber of prospect just does not excite me when it means losing Lester. Avisil Garcia, Mike Olt? Not for me. That's just a signal to your team and fans that you have thrown in the towel. It doesn't scream out that there is a commitment to the future either.

[sk7326]

Nope, he went to the Tigers. The White Sox got Avisail Garcia.

 

Also, Mike Olt for injury-ridden Garza happened just last year.

 

 

Teams haven't gotten smarter -- with the new wild card spots, more teams are going to be still in it, and fighting for a spot, thus trade targets are more valuable.

 

It was a 3-way deal - the cost in the system can be evaluated as Garcia or Iglesias equally validly. Olt had fallen on hard times in the Rangers system (blocked by a HoF'er, struggling) - he was an upside play, but a damaged one. If you think 12 starts of Jon Lester nets a Mookie Betts/Henry Owens equivalent, that is terribly unlikely.

 

I agree in isolation with the analysis about going years with a 30 year old. But you also have to look at each investment individually - and Lester has been one of the surest things in baseball since he came of age in 2008. There is a very low chance of the contract being a failure - because he will still be capable of giving 30 reasonably good starts in 4-5 years most likely. Paying a #3/4 starter $20 million will prevent John Henry from acquiring another striker on the July transfer market - but overall the deal will be a net plus.

[win red sox]

I would hope the sox could sign Lester for a 4 year deal with a mutual option for a 5th, but I have a feeling that Lester wants a 6-7 year deal and that would be a terrible deal. I know a lot people felt the Sox first offer was an insult, but it was the same extension that Beckett signed and his prior 3 years to signing the extension were far and away better than Lester's last 3 years. Now the market has changed since Beckett's extension and that's I would go 4/84 with a mutual option for another 21m with a buyout of 10m.

[win red sox]

Nope, he went to the Tigers. The White Sox got Avisail Garcia.

 

Also, Mike Olt for injury-ridden Garza happened just last year.

 

 

Teams haven't gotten smarter -- with the new wild card spots, more teams are going to be still in it, and fighting for a spot, thus trade targets are more valuable.

 

The prize in the Garza trade was CJ Edwards, who is a top 50 prospect in most prospect rankings.

[Palodios]

The prize in the Garza trade was CJ Edwards, who is a top 50 prospect in most prospect rankings.

 

Mike Olt was a top 30 prospect in 2013, and Edwards was a top 30 prospect in 2014. So yeah, half a year of Garza netted two top tier prospects.

 

I see no reason why Lester won't be valued like Garza last year.

[curiousd]

I was watching the recent Sox win over Tanaka, when one of the announcers talked about interviewing Brian Cashman. Cashman had said in the interview that the Yanks figured on Tanaka as being - not a number one starter - but a number three! The comment was made that this is a lot of money for a number three! So, it must be kept in mind that next year, the Yanks will operate as if there is no luxury tax and outbid everyone if the Yanks do not at least win the division. How does a Yankee rotation of Tanaka, Sherzer, and Price sound? Disastrous for a Sox fan such as I. (The Rays would only trade Price out of the division, but when Price is a free agent the Yankee money will loom...)

 

Sox better grab Lester while they can no matter what.

[Spudboy]

Many Sox fans scoff at the idea of Lester becoming a Yankee. It will never happen!!!

 

Bull feces!!! The Yankees have lots of money and would love to have an arm as sturdy and productive as Lester. Plus they would take away a key component in the Sox winning machine.

 

Of course any other team can step up and pay enough to lure Lester away, too.

[BSN07]

Who cares if he becomes a Yank? They like any other team signing him are probably getting 2 good years and ?'s anything after that. CC fell off a cliff. Could happen to Lester. I would find a useless CC and a declining Lester clogging up the Yanks rotation funny. Ya maybe he goes there and is aces for 6 or 7 years, in today's game I don't see it happening. If the Sox signed him to 6 or 7 years I would not be excited at all.

 

If they decide to see everyone not named Pedey, Papi, Xander, and Napoli on the ML roster should be available imo. Lester, Lackey, Koji, AJ, Ross, and Drew could net a huge overall haul of prospects. The Sox farm system would be absolutely bursting with top 100 talent. They could make a big trade in the off season or use that talent in a Sox uniform. I think watching a young group come up around Pedey, Ortiz, Xander, and Napoli.

[a700hitter]

Who cares if he becomes a Yank? They like any other team signing him are probably getting 2 good years and ?'s anything after that. CC fell off a cliff. Could happen to Lester. I would find a useless CC and a declining Lester clogging up the Yanks rotation funny. Ya maybe he goes there and is aces for 6 or 7 years, in today's game I don't see it happening. If the Sox signed him to 6 or 7 years I would not be excited at all.

 

If they decide to see everyone not named Pedey, Papi, Xander, and Napoli on the ML roster should be available imo. Lester, Lackey, Koji, AJ, Ross, and Drew could net a huge overall haul of prospects. The Sox farm system would be absolutely bursting with top 100 talent. They could make a big trade in the off season or use that talent in a Sox uniform. I think watching a young group come up around Pedey, Ortiz, Xander, and Napoli.

You lost me after the first sentence. The Yankees got 4 stud years out of C.C. with a 7-2 post season record and a World Champioship. I find no solace that the end of his contract is marred by underperformance. It doesn't erase what he did for the Skanks.

 

Similarly, it upsets me to watch Ellsbury playing for the Yankees in his prime. I expect it will upset me to see Lester still in his prime pitching with the Yankees.