The Jon Lester contract situation

[SoxSport]

If Lester would not be taking a home town discount I'd value him around 21-22 MIL a year.

The Fact that he has stated he wants to stay in Boston and a home town discount , 18-19 Ish a year would be good to keep him. Lester Is solid but he's not Cy young worthy. In fact he's never mentioned in a CY race. All the top paid pitchers in the game have CY type years minus Tanaka. Lester does NOT belong in the 25 MIL a year category for pithers

 

Now here's a guy who should be Red Sox GM. He is thinking like one.

[SoxSport]

That last sentence is the words of somebody who has never listened to a second of WEEI or The Hub.

 

BTW: I do enjoy that you are pleased with the idea of running the team like a Wal-Mart while they charge you and me prices which are quite nicely in line with the commitments Yankees ask from their Nation.

 

Any comparison of ANY MLB team with Walmart's is pure fantasy. Though they do live in a fantasy world thanks to you and me and about 200 million others.

[Bellhorn04]

Any comparison of ANY MLB team with Walmart's is pure fantasy. Though they do live in a fantasy world thanks to you and me and about 200 million others.

 

Well, you're right, it is all a fantasy world. But it's obviously one we need, isn't it?

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox offer to Lester was ill-conceived. An offer should be an invitation to start a negotiation. However, when the opening offer is so out of line with market ranges, it demonstrates bad faith by the offering party and it is a disincentive to negotiate or bargain.

[Spudboy]

The Red Sox offer to Lester was ill-conceived. An offer should be an invitation to start a negotiation. However, when the opening offer is so out of line with market ranges, it demonstrates bad faith by the offering party and it is a disincentive to negotiate or bargain.

 

I agree with what you said. 4/70 is not realistic. But 4/80 could be a reasonable starting point that may lead to a suitable compromise like 5/100 - 5/110.

 

I don't believe that the Sox FO will pay what the market dictates in this matter. Just my hunch, though. I suspect Lester will be gone and possibly in pinstripes next season.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW

 

Red Sox COO Sam Kennedy checked in with Dennis & Callahan on Thursday morning.

 

The other big Red Sox news over the last week relates to the negotiations for a new contract with left-hander Jon Lester. A recent report indicated the Red Sox made a lowball offer of about $70 million for four years.

“You have to remember, we’re starting from a place where the Red Sox, from John Henry on down to Jon Lester, want to make a deal. That’s the starting place. I think everybody feels good about that,” Kennedy said. “The problem with negotiations and details from baseball negotiations getting into the public domain when you have a leak like we did this past week related to this deal is one data point gets into the media, gets out there, gets dissected. I can tell you there are lots of other data points related to this negotiation that are not in the public spotlight, in the media. All I’ll say is that Ben Cherington, Jon Lester, Larry Lucchino, our ownership group will continue to work on this. And it’s clearly best when baseball discussions are kept private, and then baseball decisions are made public. That’s been our philosophy.

“Do we want to see Jon Lester in a Red Sox uniform for a long, long time? Absolutely, yes. As a fan, I hope that he is with us for a long, long time. We’ll see where things go over the coming weeks and months. But I’m hopeful that we do end up getting something done there.”

[rjortiz]

The Red Sox offer to Lester was ill-conceived. An offer should be an invitation to start a negotiation. However, when the opening offer is so out of line with market ranges, it demonstrates bad faith by the offering party and it is a disincentive to negotiate or bargain.

 

4/80 isn't that terrible an initial offer. The AAV is fine, but they couldn't have possibly expected him to agree to four years. It's only the initial offer, and they were probably probing how significant a discount Lester is willing to give. That being said, I don't see the Red Sox going past five years. 5/100 could be the best offer they make. I don't think that will get it done.

 

If they don't want to pay for the decline years of Lester, I would like to see them kick the tires on Stanton. I like the idea of extending a young star in his peak years. The question is whether the Red Sox have the stomach to part with the quantity of prospects for Stanton.

[seabeachfred]

FWIW

 

Red Sox COO Sam Kennedy checked in with Dennis & Callahan on Thursday morning.

 

The other big Red Sox news over the last week relates to the negotiations for a new contract with left-hander Jon Lester. A recent report indicated the Red Sox made a lowball offer of about $70 million for four years.

“You have to remember, we’re starting from a place where the Red Sox, from John Henry on down to Jon Lester, want to make a deal. That’s the starting place. I think everybody feels good about that,” Kennedy said. “The problem with negotiations and details from baseball negotiations getting into the public domain when you have a leak like we did this past week related to this deal is one data point gets into the media, gets out there, gets dissected. I can tell you there are lots of other data points related to this negotiation that are not in the public spotlight, in the media. All I’ll say is that Ben Cherington, Jon Lester, Larry Lucchino, our ownership group will continue to work on this. And it’s clearly best when baseball discussions are kept private, and then baseball decisions are made public. That’s been our philosophy.

“Do we want to see Jon Lester in a Red Sox uniform for a long, long time? Absolutely, yes. As a fan, I hope that he is with us for a long, long time. We’ll see where things go over the coming weeks and months. But I’m hopeful that we do end up getting something done there.”

 

Kennedy is full of s***!!!!!!! this is the same dance we've heard before---like when we lost Damon, Bay and then blew the Teixeira sweepstakes in between. The usual crap we then hear is "well we gave it our best shot but couldn't quite come to an agreement but we did the best we could". More ********!!!! Then it ends when the owners trash Lester after he leaves by questioning his loyalty and work habits. Come on, we've seen this so many times we should have it memorized in our brains.

[a700hitter]

I agree with what you said. 4/70 is not realistic. But 4/80 could be a reasonable starting point that may lead to a suitable compromise like 5/100 - 5/110.

 

I don't believe that the Sox FO will pay what the market dictates in this matter. Just my hunch, though. I suspect Lester will be gone and possibly in pinstripes next season.

They need to pay market if the alternative is losing another star in his prime to the Yankees.

[seabeachfred]

4/80 isn't that terrible an initial offer. The AAV is fine, but they couldn't have possibly expected him to agree to four years. It's only the initial offer, and they were probably probing how significant a discount Lester is willing to give. That being said, I don't see the Red Sox going past five years. 5/100 could be the best offer they make. I don't think that will get it done.

 

If they don't want to pay for the decline years of Lester, I would like to see them kick the tires on Stanton. I like the idea of extending a young star in his peak years. The question is whether the Red Sox have the stomach to part with the quantity of prospects for Stanton.

 

Stanton is a terrific young slugger but I don't think the Marlins are interested in moving him since they are in full rebuilding mode with him and Fernandez the cornerstones to their future. Also, getting Stanton is not going to make up for losing our No. 1 pitcher when we have only mediocrities at the present time to take his place and there is no guarantee that Renaudo and Owens are going to be as good as we hope they can be. I don't include Delarosa and Webster in that group either because IMHO they are never going to be anything by below average pitchers. Maybe Barnes will turn out well, and look at dark horse Noah Ramirez down in Double AA. He is a sleeper but I've seen this guy pitch and he has moxie coming out of his ass. I also sponsored him on the local Babe Ruth Team I started over four decades ago.

[Spudboy]

I'm betting that other than some old farts ( similar to myself! ) that few on this board know what Moxie is.

[mvp 78]

It's a lovely carbonated drink from New England that Teddy Ballgame did advertisements for. It tastes like a combination of Jaeger and birch beer.

[mvp 78]

Having it come out of your ass would be terrible, I think. I'd go see a dr if that was happening.

[rjortiz]

I agree with what you said. 4/70 is not realistic. But 4/80 could be a reasonable starting point that may lead to a suitable compromise like 5/100 - 5/110.

 

I don't believe that the Sox FO will pay what the market dictates in this matter. Just my hunch, though. I suspect Lester will be gone and possibly in pinstripes next season.

 

They need to pay market if the alternative is losing another star in his prime to the Yankees.

 

Yankees will be around $185 million after arbitration and their $12 million contribution to player benefits. They will have holes at 2B, SS, DH, SP (1), CL, and most likely 3B. How much they will be able to spend this offseason depends on how they perform this year. If they are out of the race in September, they could be in trouble for 2015. Even if they make the playoffs, pushing the payroll over $210 million before addressing the offense is pretty unlikely.

[rjortiz]

Stanton is a terrific young slugger but I don't think the Marlins are interested in moving him since they are in full rebuilding mode with him and Fernandez the cornerstones to their future. Also, getting Stanton is not going to make up for losing our No. 1 pitcher when we have only mediocrities at the present time to take his place and there is no guarantee that Renaudo and Owens are going to be as good as we hope they can be. I don't include Delarosa and Webster in that group either because IMHO they are never going to be anything by below average pitchers. Maybe Barnes will turn out well, and look at dark horse Noah Ramirez down in Double AA. He is a sleeper but I've seen this guy pitch and he has moxie coming out of his ass. I also sponsored him on the local Babe Ruth Team I started over four decades ago.

 

The Marlins investing $20-$25 million AAV in a single player would be unprecedented. He would start making that in 2016, which is around the time Jose Fernandez hits arbitration. The Marlins would have almost 1/2 their payroll invested in two players. He is not staying with the Marlins.

 

Six years from now, Stanton will be 30. Lester will be 36. There will be a huge difference in value between the two players. I'm not worried about losing Lester for Stanton. Actually, considering Stanton is still under team control for two years, they could probably keep both if they wanted.

 

As for the prospects you mentioned, Owens is probably in the deal for Stanton. Maybe De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, or Ranaudo get one of the spots depending on their progression. They will have enough money to get a free agent starter should they all flop. Noe Ramirez is 24, in AA ball, and is a reliever. I doubt he has much of a chance.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you wanted Stanton before the end of 2015, you'll have to part with a GIGANTIC amount of prospects. And you might even have to part with players on your active roster, like Bogaerts

[rjortiz]

If you wanted Stanton before the end of 2015, you'll have to part with a GIGANTIC amount of prospects. And you might even have to part with players on your active roster, like Bogaerts

 

They waited too long to land someone like Bogaerts.

[jacksonianmarch]

They waited too long to land someone like Bogaerts.

 

What are you talking about? Stanton is under control through 2016. The Rays dealt Shields and got Myers with that amount of time left on Shields, and he's a pitcher.

[Palodios]

What are you talking about? Stanton is under control through 2016. The Rays dealt Shields and got Myers with that amount of time left on Shields, and he's a pitcher.

 

Shields was dealt during the offseason, not halfway through a season. Any trade with Stanton midseason or next offseason would probably end up looking similar to the Agon trade. Two top 100 prospects and a lesser known high ceiling prospect.

 

Reports say the Marlin scouts love Middlebrooks. It would probably be WMB + Mookie Betts + one more, maybe someone like Barnes. That's a pretty fair deal -- the days of the Marlins getting an insane haul for Stanton are closing quickly.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Marlins have two franchise players on their team. They aren't dealing them until they have to, which is probably after the 2015 season for Stanton and after the 2017 season for Fernandez. Before then, they will have to be overwhelmed. Middlebrooks, Betts and Barnes is not enough. You'd need to give up a franchise level player to get one. If you don't give up Bogaerts, you're looking at 3 of Owens, Bettes, Swihart or Cecchini.

[rjortiz]

What are you talking about? Stanton is under control through 2016. The Rays dealt Shields and got Myers with that amount of time left on Shields, and he's a pitcher.

 

The Royals stupidity won't have any impact on the Red Sox. The Marlins can hold out if they want, but Stanton keeps losing value the longer he is in Miami. They should have traded him last March.

[rjortiz]

The Marlins have two franchise players on their team. They aren't dealing them until they have to, which is probably after the 2015 season for Stanton and after the 2017 season for Fernandez. Before then, they will have to be overwhelmed. Middlebrooks, Betts and Barnes is not enough. You'd need to give up a franchise level player to get one. If you don't give up Bogaerts, you're looking at 3 of Owens, Bettes, Swihart or Cecchini.

 

Yeah, that's a terrible deal. Middlebrooks is an above average regular at best, Betts is not an elite prospect, and Barnes is a third starter.

 

Betts, Cecchini, and Owens is still probably not enough.

[Palodios]

The Marlins have two franchise players on their team. They aren't dealing them until they have to, which is probably after the 2015 season for Stanton and after the 2017 season for Fernandez. Before then, they will have to be overwhelmed. Middlebrooks, Betts and Barnes is not enough. You'd need to give up a franchise level player to get one. If you don't give up Bogaerts, you're looking at 3 of Owens, Bettes, Swihart or Cecchini.

 

My impression was that Stanton would have 1.5 years of arbitration left midseason, but you're right, he will have 2.5 years. I agree, he's untouchable until 2015.

[rjortiz]

Shields was dealt during the offseason, not halfway through a season. Any trade with Stanton midseason or next offseason would probably end up looking similar to the Agon trade. Two top 100 prospects and a lesser known high ceiling prospect.

 

Reports say the Marlin scouts love Middlebrooks. It would probably be WMB + Mookie Betts + one more, maybe someone like Barnes. That's a pretty fair deal -- the days of the Marlins getting an insane haul for Stanton are closing quickly.

 

Gonzalez had one year of team control, played 1B, and was four years older. Stanton is going to get more than that.

[Palodios]

Gonzalez had one year of team control, played 1B, and was four years older. Stanton is going to get more than that.

 

Yep. Read my other post.

[jacksonianmarch]

And remember, you're not just getting him in a trade. You're getting him with the first crack to extend him.

[rjortiz]

Yep. Read my other post.

 

Sorry, didn't see it before I posted.

[Palodios]

8 innings, 1 ER from Lester tonight. Perfect through 5. The longer the Red Sox wait, the more his price will go up.

[seabeachfred]

8 innings, 1 ER from Lester tonight. Perfect through 5. The longer the Red Sox wait, the more his price will go up.

 

We all know that Pal and a lot of us here have said it. Apparently, it has gone right over Ben's head. I don't want to see Jon in pinstripes damn it!!!!!

[SoxSport]

I doubt the Red Sox are interested in Stanton--not unless Size and JBJ don't pan out. They also have Vic and Brentz, who might be ready next year. But you never know.

 

I don't know why they don't sign Lester for 6 years with a front loaded contract. Heck, Lee is still pitching well at 35. Lester is pretty sound. Just taper off Lester's salary the last couple years to discount any decline. 4 years doesn't sound right. I don't know if we know the real story. I wouldn't rely on the media for the details.