User Name?'s super minimalist offseason

[User Name]

For this thread, i shall operate under the assumption that the Red Sox allow all four of their major Free Agents go with a focus towards making out like bandits in the draft. This is highly unlikely as there's a very significant chance that two of Salty/Drew/Napoli stay, but let's ignore this for a minute and see what kind of roster could the Red Sox build in 2014 without signing any of their own FA's or any QO'd FA.

 

Roster as it stands:

 

C-Lavarnway

1B-Carp

2B-Pedroia

SS-XB

3B-WMB

OF-Nava/JBJ/Victorino

DH-Ortiz

 

Bench:

Gomes

Berry

Ross

 

 

Pitchers:

 

SP: Lester/Buchholz/Lackey/Peavy/Doubront/Dempster

RP: Koji/Taz/Breslow/Workman/Bailey/Miller

 

As of right now, the Red Sox need a 1B/OF to platoon with Carp, a regular catcher, an ultility player, and pitchers to round out the bullpen.

 

What i would do:

 

Sign 1B/OF Mike Morse to a 1-year pillow contract to rebuild his value after a disastrous 2013.

Sign C Carlos Ruiz to a 2/20 contract with a $10 million team option for a third year with a 1 million buyout.

Sign Brian Wilson to a 2/26 contract with a vesting option based on appearances for a third year at 14 million.

Sign Rajai Davis to 2/10 contract.

Sign John Macdonald to a 2/4 contract.

 

Depth chart:

 

C-Ruiz/Ross

1B-Carp/Morse platoon

2B- Pedroia/MacDonald

SS-XB/Macdonald

3B-WMB/XB/MacDonald

OF-Nava/JBJ/Gomes/Victorino/Morse/Carp/Davis

DH-Ortiz

 

Bench: Ross/Morse/Davis/MacDonald

 

Pitchers:

 

SP: Lester/Buchholz/Lackey/Peavy/Doubront

RP:Koji/Wilson/Breslow/Taz/Dempster/Miller

 

Note: The only reason i would start Workman in the minors is because the Sox view him as a starter long term, and it would be a good idea to let him get regular rotation turns until someone inevitably goes down. I also get that Dempster would be one expensive mop-up guy, but these pitching "surplus" situations always sort themselves out.

 

 

The lineup would be:

 

Vs R:

 

Victorino

XB

Pedroia

Ortiz

Carp

Nava

WMB

JBJ

Ruiz

 

Vs L:

 

Victorino

XB

Pedroia

Ortiz

Gomes

Morse

WMB

Ruiz

Davis

 

Why it would work:

 

Pitching: The Red Sox still have stellar pitching, with Buchholz avoiding any major injuries, and Lester avoiding any major mid-season ruts. Lackey regresses a bit, but the presence of Peavy helps balance the rotation out. The Sox turn Wilson into their closer, with Koji becoming relief ace, allowing the Red Sox BP to work out of almost any situation. That, combined with a top-5 rotation, allows the Sox to steamroll the AL East once again.

 

Offense: The offense obviously regresses, but with steps forward from JBJ and XB, the offense ends up in top-three territory again, with both platoons working and the lineup once again churning out quality AB after quality AB.

 

Why it wouldn't work:

 

Pitching: Buchholz and Peavy both go down with significant injury, and the rotation can't provide the same quality it did in 2013.

 

Offense: Carp and Nava regress, WMB continues his sophomore slump and Morse goes down for significant time with an injury, and the infield corners become a little house of horrors for the Sox all season long.

 

The point of the exercise is to show that even in the worst case scenario, the Sox would still put out a quality team in 2014 with a couple signings without having to break the bank.

 

I will take the analysis a little further using available data projections for all players of this "fantasy" team.

[User Name]

As clarification, i am also assuming they non-tend Bailey and Morales, saving just enough money to keep the Sox under the lux-tax threshold. For this to afford the Red Sox with enough flexibility for a mid-season trade, they'd probably have to trade Dempster.

[Palodios]

The Sox turn Wilson into their closer, with Koji becoming relief ace, allowing the Red Sox BP to work out of almost any situation.

 

Shut your filthy mouth.

I don't think Ben is going to spend big money on a closer, especially a big name closer. I'd love to see Mujica's 9.00 K/BB next to Taz and Koji, and he'd probably be 3-5 million dollars cheaper per year, but the money probably isn't there.

 

Replacing Napoli with Morse would be a real hit. Even if he reverses the Safeco Curse, the Sox would be losing a lot. Very solid defense to very bad defense. You'd be watching pitch per plate appearance drop from 4.59 to 3.82 at that position. Plus, there's that big drop in OBP. His career .819 OPS against lefties isn't really much better than Carp's .792, which makes him seem like a strange platoon choice.

 

2/10 on Rajai Davis would hurt. At that price, why not go for Chris Young?

[User Name]

Wilson would really help out the back of the BP. Morse is not as patient as Napoli, but makes more consistent contact and would mostly see time against lefties, whose career OPS against them is really impacted by Safeco. The D at 1B would take a hit anyway. Davis has elite speed, and has gotten on base against lefties at a .370 clip the past few years.

 

As for the money, let's be realistic here. That's about the going rate for role players right now.

[marklmw]

Shut your filthy mouth.

I don't think Ben is going to spend big money on a closer, especially a big name closer. I'd love to see Mujica's 9.00 K/BB next to Taz and Koji, and he'd probably be 3-5 million dollars cheaper per year, but the money probably isn't there.

 

Replacing Napoli with Morse would be a real hit. Even if he reverses the Safeco Curse, the Sox would be losing a lot. Very solid defense to very bad defense. You'd be watching pitch per plate appearance drop from 4.59 to 3.82 at that position. Plus, there's that big drop in OBP. His career .819 OPS against lefties isn't really much better than Carp's .792, which makes him seem like a strange platoon choice.

 

2/10 on Rajai Davis would hurt. At that price, why not go for Chris Young?

 

For the money I also like Mujica over Wilson because Hoji is the man until he proves otherwise. I also like Chris Young. I do not understand McDonald all that much. Dempster needs to go ... way too expensive for his role and could probably help a mid tier NL club. We can use Webster, Workman, Barnes as needed. Hopefully Miller will be back and in the same form before his injury.

[User Name]

Mujica really really ended 2013 on a down note. I wouldn't make the gamble on a RP unless it was a guy like Wilson, who has high level stuff and is a proven high-leverage guy.

[sk7326]

Lot of money chasing a lot of age here ... $10M a year for 2 years of a dude who'll be 35 when the season starts coming off of a ghastly year - yes, it's one year but given the expected performance curve 2012 was the outlier (especially the power) Probably want something cheaper (and younger) or just better for a jobshare with Ross.

 

$13M for possibly 3 years of a relief pitcher in his 30s who has pitched 15 innings since 2011. Lot of better options - and multi-year deals to relievers is one of the easiest ways to turn your good payroll bad. It is tempting to turn to "proven answers" in the bullpen, but that is largely a futile quest. Throw more Workman/De La Rosa/Ranaudos at the problem, and 1-years at Jesse Crain or Ryan Madson if you really want to spend some money on guys. The Cards, Dodgers and Tigers did not know who their guys were until the season got going - and that's ok. There is a pretty good chance Holland, who was the 2nd best reliever in the league to Uehara will turn into a pumpkin. Craig Breslow's peripherals were wildly out of line with his actual performance - he is a prime candidate for regression. It happens - that's the nature of the gig.

 

The stuff with the lineup is basically sound, although one can quibble with the chosen guys to fill the roles.

[User Name]

Yeah but all of the older guys would be getting short-term contracts, which is the whole point of the higher salaries. I understand the Wilson argument and accept it, but if i was going to gamble on a 2-year deal on a reliever, he's exactly the type of guy i'd do it with, following the Nathan contract model the Rangers used after he came back from injury.

[marklmw]

$13M for possibly 3 years of a relief pitcher in his 30s who has pitched 15 innings since 2011. Lot of better options - and multi-year deals to relievers is one of the easiest ways to turn your good payroll bad.

 

I agree ... try to use what we have in house. Miller will be back as well. Bailey has been a disaster and Hanrahan was no help.

[marklmw]

Mujica really really ended 2013 on a down note. I wouldn't make the gamble on a RP unless it was a guy like Wilson, who has high level stuff and is a proven high-leverage guy.

Mujica gave up 3 long balls in September ... other than that he had a very solid season and would be another good set-up man and an occasional closer.

[mvp 78]

How is this "minimalist?"

[User Name]

Regarding compensation only. No guys with QO's would be signed, and all main FA's would be allowed to walk.

[sk7326]

Yeah but all of the older guys would be getting short-term contracts, which is the whole point of the higher salaries. I understand the Wilson argument and accept it, but if i was going to gamble on a 2-year deal on a reliever, he's exactly the type of guy i'd do it with, following the Nathan contract model the Rangers used after he came back from injury.

 

Nathan was a better pitcher than Wilson when both were healthy (Nathan had low BABIPs throughout his career, enough to show evidence that he was a part of that), and the Rangers had a bit more need than Boston did.

 

Now the argument for Wilson - and one I do respect - is that last year there were serious concerns about Uehara's durability. (that was why he was able to be picked up on relatively favorable terms after all) He ended up thriving in by far his most grueling season. Can that continue? Wilson will have the same sort of questions - but you do double your odds of getting through the season there. That said, I think if you throw a firehose at the bullpen (Dempster-De La Rosa-Workman-whomever, come on down!) something will emerge anyway. It usually does.

[Palodios]

Wilson would really help out the back of the BP. Morse is not as patient as Napoli, but makes more consistent contact and would mostly see time against lefties, whose career OPS against them is really impacted by Safeco. The D at 1B would take a hit anyway. Davis has elite speed, and has gotten on base against lefties at a .370 clip the past few years.

 

As for the money, let's be realistic here. That's about the going rate for role players right now.

 

I don't understand what Morse would give you that someone like Baker or Konerko wouldn't, although Konerko might be a long shot as a platoon option. Baker has a .875 OPS against lefties over his career (1.079 last year in small samples) and is a much better defender.

 

And if you want a speedy outfielder with no bat, why not just keep Quinton Berry in the majors? RD's defense has been awful lately as well.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Palodios

[sk7326]

I don't understand what Morse would give you that someone like Baker or Konerko wouldn't, although Konerko might be a long shot as a platoon option.http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,37,38,39&season=2013&month=13&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1142,2073,1830,1717,589,548,8585,1861,81,1066,2041,950,3269,1591,5248,906,3174,1572,3708,1825,1392,4251,1443,4727,4191,4166,4792,88,818,520,4747,3255,6141,1573,144,1945,432,918,607,1609,470,656,826,2234,1702,332,242,1930,2161,8027,4556,4810,395,3190,25,8610,4885,1737,3035,6035,3057,3179,1556,1766,1638,1617,2129,3231,934,8252,1738,443,746,1176,1429,1824,7619,166,2579,6073,5557,1417,3704,3469,3867,2197,4606,3707,8259,1135,1488,454,1935,3882,2140,1286,7435,2434

 

And if you want a speedy outfielder with no bat, why not just keep Quinton Berry in the majors? RD's defense has been awful lately.

 

Frankly, my guy has been Chris Young - who probably wants a 400 PA gig at least, so it might not be in the cards. But you want defense, some platoon ABs with Bradley, and somebody legitimately good enough to flat take the LF job ... it might leave Gomes homeless, but dem's the breaks. And yes, if I were Gomes, I'd take reps at 1B this offseason just in case.

[mvp 78]

Regarding compensation only. No guys with QO's would be signed, and all main FA's would be allowed to walk.

 

Wouldn't miminalist be signing no one? Or at least no one above MLB minimum?

[User Name]

I don't understand what Morse would give you that someone like Baker or Konerko wouldn't, although Konerko might be a long shot as a platoon option. Baker has a .875 OPS against lefties over his career (1.079 last year in small samples) and is a much better defender.

 

And if you want a speedy outfielder with no bat, why not just keep Quinton Berry in the majors? RD's defense has been awful lately as well.

 

Konerko is not a realistic option. He's been quoted as saying CWS or bust. Baker would be an option i'd look into, but Morse's power potential away from a pitcher's park and put in a favorable situation is very very high.

 

As for Davis, unlike Berry, he can actually hit something.

[User Name]

wouldn't miminalist be signing no one? Or at least no one above mlb minimum?

 

ymmv.

[User Name]

Nathan was a better pitcher than Wilson when both were healthy (Nathan had low BABIPs throughout his career, enough to show evidence that he was a part of that), and the Rangers had a bit more need than Boston did.

 

Now the argument for Wilson - and one I do respect - is that last year there were serious concerns about Uehara's durability. (that was why he was able to be picked up on relatively favorable terms after all) He ended up thriving in by far his most grueling season. Can that continue? Wilson will have the same sort of questions - but you do double your odds of getting through the season there. That said, I think if you throw a firehose at the bullpen (Dempster-De La Rosa-Workman-whomever, come on down!) something will emerge anyway. It usually does.

 

Part two of your post sums up my thoughts exactly.

[mvp 78]

ymmv.

 

Watch your mouth when you're talking to your elders.

[User Name]

Watch your mouth when you're talking to your elders.

 

The hell did i say?

[seabeachfred]

Interesting thread guys and it proves something conclusively to me and that is we had better sign a couple of our free agents. The names Morse, Ruiz, Davis and Young do nothing for me. Morse is injury prone and stunk last year, Ruiz stunk as well, is 35 and became a problem for the Phillies, Davis is a s***** fielder and doesn't hit RH's to save his sorry ass and Young hasn't in anybody recently. Sign Napoli and either Drew or Satalamacchia. Let's try to keep as many of our stalwarts from this season together. We still have room this year for Bogey and Jackie.

[jung]

I have no problem with seeing Wilson here. I have often wondered about moving a guy like Koji into the true fireman role. He warms up quickly....if anything there were a couple times at the end of the reg season when he came out after warming too much. So he clearly gets ready in a hurry.

 

Probably the only downside is that it became palpable by the end of last season, not for us necessarily but for the team itself. They believed all they had to do was get the game to the 9th inning and they started to play with a level of confidence that was off the charts. They believed it and they were right.

[jung]

Very interesting thread starter UN. Want to try reading that on the small screen of a handheld device and keeping track of the various thoughts and considerations therein?

 

The problem with long posts is not that they are long and it is not that they are not cohesive. It is that many of you are using devices that simply are not conducive to reading that sort of material at a high enough degree of comprehension. We do not read word by word. That is actually not how our brains work. We can bring a Pulitzer Prize winner here and we would be complaining about his post if we tried to read it on a handheld.

 

I would suggest that folks use handheld devices for use in game threads where the nature of the best is short posting but resist the temptation to change members posting habits so they can continue to use the wrong device for the wrong job.

[User Name]

jung, stop whining. I'm on my computer. Also, no need for suggestions, keep it to the topic at hand. The passive-aggressive crap is beyond a person of your age, specially since a long post to start a specific thread is not the same thing as making a thesis for every post you write.

 

Also, word for word, the initial analysis is still shorter than your average post.

Edited November 16, 2013 by User Name?

[User Name]

Because MVP grilled my chops about the misuse of the word "minimalist" and jung wants (ironically) a shorter post, let's try this again but only filling out positions from within or signing truly cheap free agents.

 

Holes: C, 1B, OF, RP

 

Sign/promote:

 

C- Vasquez

1B-Lavarnway

RP-Ranaudo

RP-Webster

Util-Bloomquist

OF-Young

[jacksonianmarch]

UN, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the way they go. I thought 2013 was part of a bridge to the future, but they f***ing won. You have replacements at all positions vacated by a FA, and they're all highly touted prospects sans Carp. This is the yr to gobble up the picks and see what the kids can do, theoretically. If the sox take a step back or the kids aren't as good as advertised, the 2014 FA class is strong and can be delved into at any time. The one thing you aren't accounting for, though, is a Lester extension. Something they must do or risk watching him go about 200 miles southwest and pitch in pinstripes

[Bellhorn04]

I would prefer to get Napoli back if it can be done on a reasonable deal.

 

Frankly I'm putting my faith in Bodacious Ben.

[User Name]

UN, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the way they go. I thought 2013 was part of a bridge to the future, but they f***ing won. You have replacements at all positions vacated by a FA, and they're all highly touted prospects sans Carp. This is the yr to gobble up the picks and see what the kids can do, theoretically. If the sox take a step back or the kids aren't as good as advertised, the 2014 FA class is strong and can be delved into at any time. The one thing you aren't accounting for, though, is a Lester extension. Something they must do or risk watching him go about 200 miles southwest and pitch in pinstripes

 

An extension wouldn't impact 2014 payroll.

 

Also, this was just a fantasy exercise. As i stated in the initial post, it's very likely they bring back two out of Napoli/Drew/Salty. It wouldn't surprise me if they brought back Napoli and Drew, since they have an organizational hole at 1B and could move Bogaerts to 3B. That would keep the lineup very strong while still graduating XB and JBJ in 2014.

[mvp 78]

Because MVP grilled my chops about the misuse of the word "minimalist" and jung wants (ironically) a shorter post, let's try this again but only filling out positions from within or signing truly cheap free agents.

 

Holes: C, 1B, OF, RP

 

Sign/promote:

 

C- Vasquez

1B-Lavarnway

RP-Ranaudo

RP-Webster

Util-Bloomquist

OF-Young

 

Bloomquist? I guess Dojji is rubbing off on you?