2014 Roster Projections

[mvp 78]

If Cano put up average numbers comparable to Ortiz's 2013 offensive season over the next 8 years while playing a high level 1B would he be worth 25M per?

 

Why can we assume he'd approach that?

[User Name]

If you adjust Ortiz' FG WAR to the positional value of an excellent 1B, his 2013 season was worth 21 million dollars. Assuming that Cano will start declining halfway through his contract (and this is an extremely safe assumption) then no, he won't be worth 25 million per during the life of an 8-year contract. He'd struggle to be worth 20 per, even with the overall inflation of dollars per FG's WAR formula.

[marklmw]

Because:

 

A) What makes you think Cano will change positions? He's arguably the best 2B in the game.

 

B ) The Red Sox FO knows that as a 1B, Cano's value diminishes tremendously, making this a horrible idea.

 

C) Pretty much no big-money contract to a player about to exit his prime has been even remotely successful. Ever.

 

Answers:

 

A.) Never know until you talk with him

B.) How does Cano playing a high caliber 1B affect his future Offensive Numbers. 1B seems to be one of the highest paid positions in the game today.

C.) I have a feeling that Joey Votto will do it and I think Cano will as well. Tough for pitchers as there arms can go at any time or just loose their stuff ... ie Sabathia. I think that Cano is a safer bet .... if he is willing to move to 1B ... I do not see why he would not jump at the chance to prolong his career and improve his offensive production at the same time. It would be his last contract unless he extends a few years with the Sox like Big Papi. You keep mentioning how he is lowering his value by moving to 1B ... I do not get this logic ... OBP, HR's, RBI's, Runs, Doubles ... I don't care if he is our DH if he can deliver for the next 8 years. Having him play 1B will be great as he is probably the best athlete to play that position in a very long time.

[User Name]

Why keep arguing with you if you're just going to keep basing these assumptions on your guts and your argument rather than reality?

[marklmw]

If you adjust Ortiz' FG WAR to the positional value of an excellent 1B, his 2013 season was worth 21 million dollars. Assuming that Cano will start declining halfway through his contract (and this is an extremely safe assumption) then no, he won't be worth 25 million per during the life of an 8-year contract. He'd struggle to be worth 20 per, even with the overall inflation of dollars per FG's WAR formula.

 

Interesting that you say that. Look at Ortiz over the past 6 years (excluding 2012 as he was injured) ... he seems pretty consistent to me. I really do not care if we overpay for Cano by 5m per for the next 8 years. I feel that he will provide the full value with ease for the first 5 years. He will provide us a better opportunity to repeat or capture another Championship over the next 5 years. Pedey is done in 5-6 years also. I think that Cano can put up some very consistent numbers the next 8 years ... more so than Pedoria.

[marklmw]

Why keep arguing with you if you're just going to keep basing these assumptions on your guts and your argument rather than reality?

 

You really need to take a good long hard look at Cano's numbers. I have a greater appreciation myself after doing so.

[marklmw]

Cano has been more durable than Pedroia over his career. Does moving Cano to 1B increase or decrease his chance for injury?

[User Name]

Why does it matter? Why would he change positions? He'd get a larger contract as a 2B.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Why keep arguing with you if you're just going to keep basing these assumptions on your guts and your argument rather than reality?

 

#Marklmwlogic

[iortiz]

Why can we assume he'd approach that?

 

Physical condition?

 

Hell, Cano has a far superior physical condition than Ortiz, Cabrera, Pujols, Konerko, etc. since he is a natural 2B man, and if he stays that way it could help him a lot to stay healthy and perform at an elite level, mostly if you are considering him at 1B and eventually DHing. I could see Cano perfectly posting around Ortiz numbers at 38 YO as well, why not?

 

On the other hand I don't see Cano signing for 200 M. Probably It would be around 250 IMO. Nobody is going to get A-Rod money in the near future IMO.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Lets go all in for Miguel Cabrera. I don't care how much he wants, sign him.

[marklmw]

Physical condition?

 

Hell, Cano has a far superior physical condition than Ortiz, Cabrera, Pujols, Konerko, etc. since he is a natural 2B man, and if he stays that way it could help him a lot to stay healthy and perform at an elite level, mostly if you are considering him at 1B and eventually DHing. I could see Cano perfectly posting around Ortiz numbers at 38 YO as well, why not?

 

On the other hand I don't see Cano signing for 200 M. Probably It would be around 250 IMO. Nobody is going to get A-Rod money in the near future IMO.

 

Yeah but that does not conform to my original premise which was that the Yankees latest offer to Cano was 168M / 7 and that the Yankees did not want to pay 200M.

 

Assuming this to be true was my idea of the Sox coming in and offering Cano 200M / 8. 250M would translate to a 10 year deal which I would not be willing to do.

[marklmw]

Lets go all in for Miguel Cabrera. I don't care how much he wants, sign him.

 

Last time I looked Cabrera is not a FA ... we would have to pay him and give up our top prospects ... do not have to do that with Cano. Cano is also a lot healthier. I am gald that you are thinking big however.

[a700hitter]

Miggy and Ortiz back to back. That's a Sox fan's wet dream.

[marklmw]

Why does it matter? Why would he change positions? He'd get a larger contract as a 2B.

 

You are missing the premise of my original thought here UN. The Yankees have offered Cano 168/7 as a second baseman and stated that they are not going to pay him 200M. If the Sox offered him to sign him for 200m/8 to play 1B how does that affect how much his contract is. Talk about an illogical argument.

[marklmw]

Miggy and Ortiz back to back. That's a Sox fan's wet dream.

Let's do it! lol

[a700hitter]

You are missing the premise of my original thought here UN. The Yankees have offered Cano 168/7 as a second baseman and stated that they are not going to pay him 200M. If the Sox offered him to sign him for 200m/8 to play 1B how does that affect how much his contract is. Talk about an illogical argument.

Put him at 3rd base.

[marklmw]

When Detroit signed Miggy I wanted Boston to sign him but all the talk was that Boston was concerned about Miggy's health. Hey UN ... how is Miggy's FA contract working out for Detroit? Just curious to know your answer to this one.

[marklmw]

Put him at 3rd base.

The idea to play Cano at 3B was also part of my original Cano posting.

[Palodios]

Last time I looked, every long term top dollar contract was wasted money in the end.

 

Manny Ramirez, Sabathia, Giambi, Holliday, Cabrera's current contract. Beltran got injured at the end of his, but he produced well and ended up netting his team a top pitching prospect. Giving 200 million to a player past 32 will never be a smart move though.

[marklmw]

Manny Ramirez, Sabathia, Giambi, Holliday, Cabrera's current contract. Beltran got injured at the end of his, but he produced well and ended up netting his team a top pitching prospect. Giving 200 million to a player past 32 will never be a smart move though.

Who is past 32?

[User Name]

Manny Ramirez, Sabathia, Giambi, Holliday, Cabrera's current contract. Beltran got injured at the end of his, but he produced well and ended up netting his team a top pitching prospect. Giving 200 million to a player past 32 will never be a smart move though.

 

Ramirez roided, Giambi roided, Sabathia looks about done, Holliday has not lived up to his contract. Beltran got injured/underproduced for several seasons. Cabrera, and that's about it.

[User Name]

When Detroit signed Miggy I wanted Boston to sign him but all the talk was that Boston was concerned about Miggy's health. Hey UN ... how is Miggy's FA contract working out for Detroit? Just curious to know your answer to this one.

 

How old was Cabrera when he signed his contract? Oh right, not 31.....

[User Name]

Physical condition?

 

Hell, Cano has a far superior physical condition than Ortiz, Cabrera, Pujols, Konerko, etc. since he is a natural 2B man, and if he stays that way it could help him a lot to stay healthy and perform at an elite level, mostly if you are considering him at 1B and eventually DHing. I could see Cano perfectly posting around Ortiz numbers at 38 YO as well, why not?

 

 

On the other hand I don't see Cano signing for 200 M. Probably It would be around 250 IMO. Nobody is going to get A-Rod money in the near future IMO.

 

Because there's no precedent for this other than players who use steroids? "Physical condition" matters very little when age arrives. Your assessment about how much money he's getting is correct. Also keep in mind that this is the main reason why he'd sign as a 2B. He'll get much more money signing as the best 2B available.

[User Name]

How old was Cabrera when he signed his contract? Oh right, not 31.....

 

Another example of this is the original 100+ million contract Albert Pujols signed. Yet look at the one he signed now. There's a world of difference between signing a player smack dab in the middle of his prime, and a player getting ready to exit it.

[BornToRun]

Signing Cano is a bad idea. Period. End of discussion. We already have a second baseman and giving Cano 200m at age 31 to play first base is a very bad idea. I can't stress enough how bad of an idea it is.

[Palodios]

Holliday has hit. 300 and opsed nearly. .900. Sabathias first 200 million dollar contract succeeded... His second one not so much. Taking steroids made the roiders worth their contracts... But that still means they were worth them. Beltran lost a year worth of games due to health, but one year doesn't invalidate the other years when healthy or the prospect he gained them.

[marklmw]

Signing Cano is a bad idea. Period. End of discussion. We already have a second baseman and giving Cano 200m at age 31 to play first base is a very bad idea. I can't stress enough how bad of an idea it is.

 

Well that does it then ... BTR says bad idea ... I will begin my quest for another interesting topic of discussion.

[marklmw]

Holliday has hit. 300 and opsed nearly. .900. Sabathias first 200 million dollar contract succeeded... His second one not so much. Taking steroids made the roiders worth their contracts... But that still means they were worth them. Beltran lost a year worth of games due to health, but one year doesn't invalidate the other years when healthy or the prospect he gained them.

There is no evidence that Cano's health is going to break down in the next 8 years. Ortiz is carrying how much greater body fat than Cano and Papi is still putting up the numbers. Cano is in very good shape. Miggy has never been in top shape. I will bet a steak dinner that Cano will be putting up Ortiz type numbers 8 years from now.

[BornToRun]

Well that does it then ... BTR says bad idea ... I will begin my quest for another interesting topic of discussion.

 

You honestly think signing a guy who to an 8 year contract worth 200 million that is going to take him almost into his 40's isn't a huge mistake?