2014 Roster Projections

[SoxSport]

I've never seen such exhaustive Yankee coverage on TV and the tweets--of all the money they spent pre-season. The Dodgers must feel left out. LOL.

 

CBS and its writers seem totally pro-Yankee-- Heyman just tweeted the Yankees are thinking about "taking" Drew from the Red Sox (LOL again), and that Drew turned down a multi year deal from the Red Sox. A distortion, since his CBS article says a "rumor" the Red Sox offered a multi year deal. It's pretty clear he would have jumped at it if they had. And why should they? Can you imagine what they would be saying if the Yankees had Mbrooks at 3B and X at SS instead of the Red Sox? What a joke. And it's even carrying over to MLB TV --run by that ex-CBS sports guy. Everybody over there seems pro Yankee except Rose and Millar. And Billy Ripken.

 

So the Yankees just spent a half billion dollars buying players, and they are getting the same media treatment the Red Sox got a few years ago when Epstein lost his mind and spent Henry's fortune on a few stars. The media went wild, and declared the Red Sox the next reigning champions. Wrong. It's always follow the money with those networks. Nary a word about the two best teams in Baseball last season--The Red Sox and the Cardinals.

 

Why is there so much talk about the Yankees in the Red Sox forum? Screw the Yankees.

Edited January 24, 2014 by SoxSport

[User Name]

I've never seen such exhaustive Yankee coverage on TV and the tweets--of all the money they spent pre-season. The Dodgers must feel left out. LOL.

 

CBS and its writers seem totally pro-Yankee-- Heyman just tweeted the Yankees are thinking about "taking" Drew from the Red Sox (LOL again), and that Drew turned down a multi year deal from the Red Sox. A distortion, since his CBS article says a "rumor" the Red Sox offered a multi year deal. It's pretty clear he would have jumped at it if they had. And why should they? Can you imagine what they would be saying if the Yankees had Mbrooks at 3B and X at SS instead of the Red Sox? What a joke. And it's even carrying over to MLB TV --run by that ex-CBS sports guy. Everybody over there seems pro Yankee except Rose and Millar. And Billy Ripken.

 

So the Yankees just spent a half billion dollars buying players, and they are getting the same media treatment the Red Sox got a few years ago when Epstein lost his mind and spent Henry's fortune on a few stars. The media went wild, and declared the Red Sox the next reigning champions. Wrong. It's always follow the money with those networks. Nary a word about the two best teams in Baseball last season--The Red Sox and the Cardinals.

 

Why is there so much talk about the Yankees in the Red Sox forum? Screw the Yankees.

 

Why hello irony, nice to see you again!

[mvp 78]

Why hello irony, nice to see you again!

 

Is it really an attack if the intended target never reads it? (tree falling in the woods)

[BSN07]

Not enough. That's a lowball offer.

 

Not it's not. He's not Felix, Verlander, Kershaw and should not get that kind of money in an extension. A Weaver type extension with the added parts of previously stated is a fair "hometown" offer. Low balling him would be offering him an Edwin Jackson type deal or something.

[User Name]

It's lowballing because the open market would yield significantly more money for him. There's a difference between "giving a discount" and "being an idiot".

[mvp 78]

Not it's not. He's not Felix, Verlander, Kershaw and should not get that kind of money in an extension. A Weaver type extension with the added parts of previously stated is a fair "hometown" offer. Low balling him would be offering him an Edwin Jackson type deal or something.

 

He's going to sign a 20M AAV deal either here or elsewhere.

[BSN07]

Lester is less attractive as a 20M a year guy through his mid 30's. That may be blasphemy but I see Lester as a lower #1 type. He has dominant stretches but he's never had one of those shutdown seasons where he just goes out and dominates almost every night like the Verlanders and Felix's have. So maybe that's why I don't see him getting that kind of money.

[Palodios]

Not it's not. He's not Felix, Verlander, Kershaw and should not get that kind of money in an extension. A Weaver type extension with the added parts of previously stated is a fair "hometown" offer. Low balling him would be offering him an Edwin Jackson type deal or something.

 

175 for Tanaka is going to warp the market. Lester has proven much more as a borderline #1/ high end #2, has been very healthy, and his habit of improving as the season progresses makes him postseason viable. 140 on the open market seems like a good starting point, so 110-120 seems about right for the Red Sox.

[sk7326]

Not it's not. He's not Felix, Verlander, Kershaw and should not get that kind of money in an extension. A Weaver type extension with the added parts of previously stated is a fair "hometown" offer. Low balling him would be offering him an Edwin Jackson type deal or something.

 

It is very much a lowball offer. Tanaka got the offer he did because he was 5 years younger than Lester and the value of a (projected, at least by the team, which is all that matters here) #2 on the Yankee balance sheet is well within what they offered him.

 

Greinke was landed for 6/147 if you want a reasonably good comp. Now what will hurt Lester slightly (MAYBE) in free agency is that the specter of the Price trade looms larger. That said, it was not an issue this year and Tampa is very very smart and probably will cut a deal if the team can contend again.

 

But each free agency year is separate - it will be once again a serious buyer's market. Lester you are looking at a 5/125 or so as a STARTING point. Now, I have misgivings about a pitcher into his 30s blah blah blah. But if there is a pitcher that you are confident will hold his value - 200 decent innings with virtually zero injury history as your absolute floor - Lester is it.

[BSN07]

What about adding 5/90 to his current deal with a team option 6th year at 20M with 7M buyout. That be 110M for 6 years, possibly 7/123M?

[Bellhorn04]

Lester is less attractive as a 20M a year guy through his mid 30's. That may be blasphemy but I see Lester as a lower #1 type. He has dominant stretches but he's never had one of those shutdown seasons where he just goes out and dominates almost every night like the Verlanders and Felix's have. So maybe that's why I don't see him getting that kind of money.

 

But pitcher salaries are taking another inflationary leap before our eyes. Greinke is arguably a good comp for Lester (ERA of 3.80 in the AL) and he pulls down 25 million.

[sk7326]

175 for Tanaka is going to warp the market. Lester has proven much more as a borderline #1/ high end #2, has been very healthy, and his habit of improving as the season progresses makes him postseason viable. 140 on the open market seems like a good starting point, so 110-120 seems about right for the Red Sox.

 

I guess I'd make clear by what your view of #1 vs #2. I don't use the "30 teams have #1s so it must be at least that good". That is stupid. But I'd say Verlander, Darvish, Felix, Scherzer probably, David Price, with Fernandez and Strasburg right on the doorstep. It's the combination of quality and bulk. Lester's quality has been a wee bit below that super tier, although the bulk is among the league's best.

 

By no means is it an insult - and he had a terrific postseason to add to his resume. He is a $25M pitcher in this market without regret.

[sk7326]

But pitcher salaries are taking another inflationary leap before our eyes. Greinke is arguably a good comp for Lester (ERA of 3.80 in the AL) and he pulls down 25 million.

 

Last year you could see the embers of it. The industry values innings horses - and if you are a good innings horse, you can write your own check. Lester richly qualifies in both. When making a comp, the ERA is only a modest part of it. Lester's 3.5-4 projected future ERA does not seem amazing for a large salary, but you have to factor in his track record of churning out 30 starts and 200 innings a year. Even if he is not 1997-2000 Pedro Martinez, the fact that you can plug him into your rotation and not have anything to worry about - no DL trips, no Steve Blass disease - is extremely significant.

[Palodios]

I guess I'd make clear by what your view of #1 vs #2. I don't use the "30 teams have #1s so it must be at least that good". That is stupid. But I'd say Verlander, Darvish, Felix, Scherzer probably, David Price, with Fernandez and Strasburg right on the doorstep. It's the combination of quality and bulk. Lester's quality has been a wee bit below that super tier, although the bulk is among the league's best.

 

By no means is it an insult - and he had a terrific postseason to add to his resume. He is a $25M pitcher in this market without regret.

 

I generalized him as a #1/#2 for the sole purpose of avoiding this argument. If you consider him a #3, I don't even know what you to tell you.

[User Name]

But he didn't say that. He just said Lester is a fringe #1.

[Spudboy]

Jacko, a lot of what you post is true, but a lot of it is lathered in Yankee ballwashing subjective nonsense. If you want to call out others on their lack of objectivity regarding the Yankees, i suggest toning down some of the yearly doomsday predictions.

 

Also, DD smacked you pretty hard with some good logic there, so don't try weaseling out with those weak cop-outs.

 

Well, I have just been reminded of why I have returned to talksox.

[User Name]

I'll be here all night.

[Palodios]

But he didn't say that. He just said Lester is a fringe #1.

 

If he thought Lester is a 1/2 then why drop a paragraph arguing on semantics on why I thought Lester was a 1/2 ? I really tried to avoid this argument.

[User Name]

If he thought Lester is a 1/2 then why drop a paragraph arguing on semantics on why I thought Lester was a 1/2 ? I really tried to avoid this argument.

 

I think you mistook the intentions of his clarification. The point is that just because every team has a guy leading their rotation, there aren't 30 #1's in baseball. He's saying the number 1's are a super-elite group comprised of the names he mentioned, and that Lester is just a step below them. That'd make him a fringe #1, and thus he will be paid as such.

[rjortiz]

The $25 million AAV made me wonder what Lester's trade value would be. How many prospects would you offer for someone you'd control for only a year? What happens to the David Price trade market? They won't get an elite prospect for him. It also made me think of how valuable Bogaerts would be if he was offered for trade. Bradley Jr. has to be pretty valuable as well. Would he be worth more than Price? It sounds absurd, but if he's league average in CF in 2014, and improves to a 3 WAR player by 2016, that's a pretty useful piece to have making the minimum.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester is a fringe #1. Regular season production the past few yrs has been a 2-3, postseason production is ace-like. If he comes out and repeats 2013, he is gonna get a TON of money on the open market. Lester will get $20 mil per. I think the sox would behoove themselves to offer him an extension with strong money and short yrs. Maybe they offer a 4 yr $80 mil extension and see if he bites. If he hits the open market, Cliff Lee's deal will be the starting point

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees have had a good offseason. But their moves only REALLY made sense if they kept Cano, who is one of the league's 10 best players (and probably more like 5). Without him, the Ellsbury and McCann moves only really offset the loss a little bit. The Tanaka move is risky but a risk that makes perfect sense for them - the rotation needs CC to be excellent though. Considering the Yankees were an 86 win team with the run differential of a below .500 one, there is a lot of ground for them to make up. Assuming usual regression for Boston, they are still a solid 85-90 win outfit on the floor (assuming reasonable health). But there is little evidence that these moves got the Yankees that much closer to Baltimore (who was a better team than the 2012 Orioles without the same wild good luck) let alone Tampa or Boston. As far as the Red Sox go ...

 

C: Mild downgrade, maybe. I think the move was more contractually motivated. I'd expect Vasquez to be up in the 2nd half if he can show some solid evidence of being able to hit

1B: Napoli is a three true outcome guy. Nothing you've written changes that. Low BA, high OBP, and a lot of moonshots. Last year was not a strange year for him. Strikeouts don't matter.

2B: Pedroia will be a year older, but his thumb will be healed. His power should make an uptick.

3B: Middlebrooks can't be as bad as he was last year, and Bogaerts will be an upgrade on what they got from the position last year (virtually nothing)

SS: Drew is a good player whose absence should not be underrated. But Bogaerts ceiling is obvious, and moreover, you take the near guaranteed upgrade at 3B from last year and it offsets some of the "growing pains" you might get here.

LF: It's a platoon - can they cobble a 2-3 win season from a combo of Gomes, Carp, Nava? It is unlikely they ALL stink. There is a job opening here though and I expect that the Sox will be opportunistic.

CF: If Bradley can burp out a .370 OBP with elite defense, that is a fringe all-star already. It is a downgrade on Ellsbury's best, but hardly a fatal one.

RF: So much of Victorino's value is in his defense that you worry as he loses steps. That said, his discovery that left handed hitting is a waste of his time could ease his regression.

DH: Papi is still effective, and that's all you need.

Staff: Good. Cherington did a nice job in the offseason adding some relief arms because you can't count on any bullpen repeating its performance. Actually, it's probably the best part of his offseason. The starters are what they are ... Lester as a fringy 1/elite 2, and a bunch of #2/#3 sorts who can give you good professional innings. You can win a World Series with that - we did after all.

 

 

C is not a mild downgrade from the 2013 production. Salty may never produce like that again, but you are replacing 2013 Salty with 2014 Pierzynski. Also, the guy is a clubhouse cancer

1B- Napoli had a career high BABIP in the .360s. That is not sustainable. BABIP is balls in play, as in when he doesn't K or hit it out. He will not get a hit on 36% of the balls he puts in play. It will not happen

2B- Pedroia is Pedroia. He might hit 5 more homers this yr. Regardless, I expect him to be a 5+ win player as he always seems to be

3B- WMB will likely improve a little. His BABIP of .263 was low, but his .335BABIP in 2012 was too high. He's probably a .250 hitter with power and no OBP skills.

SS- Bogaerts has a high ceiling. But he's proven nothing to this point. If he flops, you're f***ed

LF- It is a platoon. But you aren't having Nava hit to a .350BABIP again either. And when he returns to normal, so will his production as a fringe starter. Gomes will likely give you a repeat of 2013

CF- So you are hoping Bradley "burps" out a .370OBP? So lets just hope your rookie can be a top 25 OBP player in all of baseball by burping? Really? He showed no capability to do that in the bigs. He's another massive ???

RF- Victorino had a career high BABIP. Not outrageous, but career high. He likely will regress a little at the dish

DH- Ortiz had a resurgent year at 37 yrs old. He will be 38, is he still a .300 30HR 100RBI guy with a mid .900s OPS? Or is he a mid .800s OPS guy who is still a viable threat but not a top 10 player in the game? That's the question. That and who supplied him

[rjortiz]

C is not a mild downgrade from the 2013 production. Salty may never produce like that again, but you are replacing 2013 Salty with 2014 Pierzynski. Also, the guy is a clubhouse cancer

1B- Napoli had a career high BABIP in the .360s. That is not sustainable. BABIP is balls in play, as in when he doesn't K or hit it out. He will not get a hit on 36% of the balls he puts in play. It will not happen

2B- Pedroia is Pedroia. He might hit 5 more homers this yr. Regardless, I expect him to be a 5+ win player as he always seems to be

3B- WMB will likely improve a little. His BABIP of .263 was low, but his .335BABIP in 2012 was too high. He's probably a .250 hitter with power and no OBP skills.

SS- Bogaerts has a high ceiling. But he's proven nothing to this point. If he flops, you're f***ed

LF- It is a platoon. But you aren't having Nava hit to a .350BABIP again either. And when he returns to normal, so will his production as a fringe starter. Gomes will likely give you a repeat of 2013

CF- So you are hoping Bradley "burps" out a .370OBP? So lets just hope your rookie can be a top 25 OBP player in all of baseball by burping? Really? He showed no capability to do that in the bigs. He's another massive ???

RF- Victorino had a career high BABIP. Not outrageous, but career high. He likely will regress a little at the dish

DH- Ortiz had a resurgent year at 37 yrs old. He will be 38, is he still a .300 30HR 100RBI guy with a mid .900s OPS? Or is he a mid .800s OPS guy who is still a viable threat but not a top 10 player in the game? That's the question. That and who supplied him

 

Every one of those things could happen, and they would still be no worse than an 85 win team. That's probably around where Tampa Bay and New York are.

[mvp 78]

How is AJ aclubhouse cancer? Players havecome out and said he's agreat teammate and someone you just don't want to play against.

[jacksonianmarch]

Direct quote,"As reported by Tim Keown of ESPN, here's a reason why Ozzie Guillen said this about Pierzynski: "If you play against him, you hate him. If you play with him, you hate him a little less."

[rjortiz]

C - Pierzynski makes too many outs, but he's not awful for a catcher. He's also a solid defender. He's a downgrade, but not a complete catastrophic one.

1B - No argument here. The only thing that saved Napoli was that hot September.

2B - Pedroia's probably about the same.

SS - Everyone is going to be disappointed when Bogaerts has a .750 OPS as a 21 year old SS. That would only make him a top 10 SS in MLB. He's got the minor league track record, and he held his own in the postseason. He's going to be good next year, and he's going to be a superstar down the road.

3B - That sounds about right. He's probably an average 3B. Maybe slightly below.

LF - He won't hit that well again, but he can't possibly be that bad defensively again. If he's merely bad instead of only better than Raul Ibanez bad, then it won't be that much of a downgrade. However, Raul Ibanez won't save him from the cellar this year, so if he's repeating that level while declining with the bat, I'll bet the Red Sox look for an upgrade elsewhere.

CF - If Jackie Bradley has a .370 OBP with elite defense, then he'd be an MVP candidate next year. I think only McCutchen and Trout would be the only CF's better than that. That's definitely not happening. I think if he has a .750 OPS with good defense the Red Sox should be ecstatic. As long as his defense doesn't go into the tank they probably could live with a .700 OPS. He's the biggest downgrade from 2013.

RF - Victorino will take a step back to a 3 or 3.5 WAR. No way he's having a defensive year like last year.

DH - A step back wouldn't surprise me, but he's still probably good for at least a 3 WAR.

 

There's some regression for sure, but I still wouldn't project anything less than 91 wins.

[Palodios]

Jose Mijares! Can we talk about him?

 

29 years old. Career 3.30 ERA, 8ish K/9, World Series Champion, lefthander with mid 90's fastball. Splits aren't vastly different.

 

He had a rough 2013, but when your BABIP was the highest in baseball, a 4.20 ERA doesn't seem that bad.

 

What a great minor league signing. They can stash him in the minors until someone gets hurt, and you have a serviceable 6th inning option to keep the team afloat. Low ground ball numbers will hurt, but Bradley + Victorino will be solid in the outfield.

[jacksonianmarch]

Second lefty, always important. I don't know if you're stashing him, though. Lots of these MiLB contracts for big leaguer come with opt outs between March 31 and May 1

[Palodios]

Second lefty, always important. I don't know if you're stashing him, though. Lots of these MiLB contracts for big leaguer come with opt outs between March 31 and May 1

 

It does have an opt-out clause, but many times players are willing to wait a month or two to see how things work out, and someone will probably get injured by then. That is one of the perks of being the defending champs is that these types of guys tend to be willing to wait a month to get onto the roster.

[sk7326]

C is not a mild downgrade from the 2013 production. Salty may never produce like that again, but you are replacing 2013 Salty with 2014 Pierzynski. Also, the guy is a clubhouse cancer

1B- Napoli had a career high BABIP in the .360s. That is not sustainable. BABIP is balls in play, as in when he doesn't K or hit it out. He will not get a hit on 36% of the balls he puts in play. It will not happen

2B- Pedroia is Pedroia. He might hit 5 more homers this yr. Regardless, I expect him to be a 5+ win player as he always seems to be

3B- WMB will likely improve a little. His BABIP of .263 was low, but his .335BABIP in 2012 was too high. He's probably a .250 hitter with power and no OBP skills.

SS- Bogaerts has a high ceiling. But he's proven nothing to this point. If he flops, you're f***ed

LF- It is a platoon. But you aren't having Nava hit to a .350BABIP again either. And when he returns to normal, so will his production as a fringe starter. Gomes will likely give you a repeat of 2013

CF- So you are hoping Bradley "burps" out a .370OBP? So lets just hope your rookie can be a top 25 OBP player in all of baseball by burping? Really? He showed no capability to do that in the bigs. He's another massive ???

RF- Victorino had a career high BABIP. Not outrageous, but career high. He likely will regress a little at the dish

DH- Ortiz had a resurgent year at 37 yrs old. He will be 38, is he still a .300 30HR 100RBI guy with a mid .900s OPS? Or is he a mid .800s OPS guy who is still a viable threat but not a top 10 player in the game? That's the question. That and who supplied him

 

Ortiz' resurgent 2013 was eerily close to his 2012 before the injuries - I am not worried there. A .350+ OPB is merely what Bradley has produced in every full time minor league stop he has had. It is reasonable to expect a 24 year old to improve to the level of being able to repeat his minor league performance.

 

Napoli's BABIP was .344 in his amazing 2011. Fact is, his BABIP fluctuations are endemic of any three true outcomes sort of hitter. His on-base manages to stay solid either way.

 

AJ could be a clubhouse cancer - but that assumes chemistry leads performance, which it doesn't. Also, he is low enough risk that you can cut him if it's a problem. All it cost them was money.