2014 Roster Projections

[rjortiz]

I love the arbitrary numbers getting tossed around. How do you even arrive at those odds?

[jacksonianmarch]

Alright, I have heard enough talk about how bad the Yankees are. Shall we look at the emperor and see if he has any clothes?

 

The Red Sox won the World Series last year. It is a fact. But 2013 is over and the new year begins pretty soon. As it stands, the first pitcher and catcher date is Feb 6th, a mere 14 days away. What have the Red Sox done this offseason. They have, um, not really, um done anything to better themselves at all.

 

1. They lost a 5 win player in Ellsbury and replaced him with a player who had played 104 games total from 2010-2011 and hasn't actually taken the field the last 2 seasons. Oh, and those two years that he managed to play 104 games, he combined to have an OPS under .700 with a WAR of -0.6. The guy who is likely going to take the field the most, JBJ, had a disastrous opening campaign in the bigs that actually saw him revert a little on return to the minors. The guy has proven that he can walk, but can he continue to hit at the level he has in the minors? Of note, the guy has a .349 career MiLB BABIP. Just an aside, Tony Gwynn's was .341 in the bigs. My guess is, this kid is not going to be a 5 win player, at least not yet

 

2. They lost Jarrod Saltalamacchia and replaced him with AJ Pierzynski. Salty had a 3.6 WAR last yr and somehow graded out positively as a defender per fangraphs. AJ is a 37 yr old catcher coming off a 1.6 WAR season. That's a downgrade right there, at least from the 2013 level.

 

3. They lost Stephen Drew (most likely) and replaced him with Xander Bogaerts. Nobody questions this kids potential, but Drew was a 3.4WAR player last yr. Typically, even future stars don't have very solid rookie campaigns. And Drew's season was very solid.

 

4. Iglesias was traded mid season, and he was a part of your success, with a WAR of 1.6 in 63 games. Middlebrooks takes over the position coming off an abysmal year with a negative WAR after pitchers figured him out. He struck out more than once per appearance and saw his OPS drop below the .700 mark.

 

Now, lets take a look at the sox players in 2013 who had career or resurgent offensive years.

 

1. David Ortiz- Ortiz had his highest WAR since 2007, when he was 31 years old. Ortiz just turned 38. How much longer can he be relied upon to hit .300 with a .900+OPS and 30 or more HRs?

 

2. Daniel Nava- the guy went from DFA in 2011 to ridiculous season in 2013. His line was phenomenal at .303/.385/.445. When was the last time, prior to 2013, that Nava hit over .300 in a season in which he appeared in more than 100 games? The answer is none. His production in 2013 was completely aberrant from his history, major or minor league. It might have something to do with his .352BABIP. That is not a typo. He might have carved out his niche in the bigs, but he isn't replicating 2013 again

 

3. Shane Victorino- add Shane to the career high list. His 6.1WAR was the highest of his career last yr. He is definitely a solid player, but he's not proven to be a 6WAR player on the regular. He's probably a 3-4 WAR player, but repeating 6 again would be an aberration based on his career norms. He also had a career high BABIP of .321

 

4. Mike Napoli- Nap has had better years in the past. But this past yr was weird. The guy put up quietly good numbers including a 4WAR. But he also posted the highest BABIP of his career at .367. Sufficed to say, if he keeps K'ing at his current rate, that number can only go down, and with it will come his production.

 

5. Mike Carp- 2013 was the first yr he posted a positive WAR. He also had a .385 BABIP. There is no f***ing way he continues to be this hot.

 

The funny thing is, the sox hit on all cylinders offensively with some guys finding the fountain of youth and others performing at unsustainable levels. I expect a dropoff, a pretty significant one, come 2014. There is no way that Carp, Nap, Victorino, and Nava will continue to post career high BABIPs. And you are taking 3 pretty reliable offensive weapons from 2013 and replacing them with 2 rookies and a washed up veteran.

 

Lets go to the mound. This is where the sox have a lot working for them. Lester returned to being solid and is in his prime. Lackey showed that his stuff is there when his elbow is attached. Father time nips at him a little, but he didn't throw in 2012 and probably has some more in him. Peavy threw as a solid mid rotation guy when he came to the sox. Buchholz was injured, but he is probably the only guy I can point to in the rotation and say that he wont repeat his performance. He isn't pulling a Pedro circa 1999. His ERA will be over 3 in 2014, and who knows how many innings the pussbag can give you. Doubront is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He's actually been a consistent back end starter for 2 yrs, one wonders if he'll take the jump. You have depth with Dempster and Workman. The staff is likely to be good. But the pen will be interesting. Uehara will not repeat his 2013. Actually, nobody will repeat his 2013. He turns 39 and pitched the most innings in his professional career last yr. His career ERA is in the mid 2's, so a repeat of 1.09 isn't likely. Also, it isn't likely that Craig Breslow will give you 60 innings of a sub 2ERA either. That being said, the staff looks pretty good. Lester is a second tier ace (who shows up in the post season) and your 2-5 all are effective starters capable of giving innings and winning games.

 

So in the end, your rotation will likely be near the top, your pen will revert a bit, and your offense will drop a fair amount. Is that enough to fight off the hard charging Yankees or the intact Rays? That is a good question to ask yourself sox nation, as your GM hasn't done s*** this yr.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

We don't have much to worry about. If it makes you feel better, you can keep trying to make us feel bad lol.

[iortiz]

hahahah oh jacko boy, in other words we are screwed up, aren't we? hahaha

 

I expect a close race. I do not see a clear favorite, In fact any team can win the ALE IMO. I fully expect a 90-91 wins next year. Sure, I do not expect to be the best Offense again, but it will produce a lot of runs again. JBJ, XB and WM will be ok. Napoli, Pedroia, Vic and Ortiz will be the main engine. The AJ-Ross duo will cover Salty's ass specially far better behind the plate. The Nava-Carp-Gomes platoon machine will be ok. Our pen is stronger even Koji dropping a bit. Aside CB who is made of glass, Our rotation is in shape, and as you said we have some depth.

 

I see a competitive team, sure probably not as good as 2013 but still very competitive.

[DirtDog]

 

1. They lost a 5 win player in Ellsbury and replaced him with a player who had played 104 games total from 2010-2011 and hasn't actually taken the field the last 2 seasons. Oh, and those two years that he managed to play 104 games, he combined to have an OPS under .700 with a WAR of -0.6. The guy who is likely going to take the field the most, JBJ, had a disastrous opening campaign in the bigs that actually saw him revert a little on return to the minors. The guy has proven that he can walk, but can he continue to hit at the level he has in the minors? Of note, the guy has a .349 career MiLB BABIP. Just an aside, Tony Gwynn's was .341 in the bigs. My guess is, this kid is not going to be a 5 win player, at least not yet

 

 

Jackie Bradley Jr 2012 in AA: .271/.373/.437 (271 PA)

Jackie Bradley Jr 2013 in AAA: .275/.375/.469 (374 PA)

 

Revert? Not sure that word means what you think it means in that usage. If anything he improved going up a level, which is a great sign and th opposite of what you're implying. He simply was not ready last year. 90% of the posters on here would agree he should have started in AAA. Many prospects would have not have the make up to handle a demotion as well as JBJ. Long term projections never have him at Ellsbury's ceiling. No one thinks he will be a 5 win player. I think you're making up expectations of what Red Sox fans think here.

 

2. They lost Jarrod Saltalamacchia and replaced him with AJ Pierzynski. Salty had a 3.6 WAR last yr and somehow graded out positively as a defender per fangraphs. AJ is a 37 yr old catcher coming off a 1.6 WAR season. That's a downgrade right there, at least from the 2013 level.

Yes Salty had a career year in terms of WAR. Defensive metrics for catchers mean nothing at this point. We are nowhere near understanding mathematically the value of a good defensive catcher using advanced metrics. In terms of pitch framing and throwing out runners, Salty was very bad.

 

3. They lost Stephen Drew (most likely) and replaced him with Xander Bogaerts. Nobody questions this kids potential, but Drew was a 3.4WAR player last yr. Typically, even future stars don't have very solid rookie campaigns. And Drew's season was very solid.

Conjecture. Bogaerts is the #1 or #2 rated prospect in all of MLB. He can bust but that is very unlikely. Most projectionss have him succeeding Drew's offensive projection easily and he will be average on D. The reality is he has already replaced Drew. The future 2015 and beyond upside is much, much more.

 

4. Iglesias was traded mid season, and he was a part of your success, with a WAR of 1.6 in 63 games. Middlebrooks takes over the position coming off an abysmal year with a negative WAR after pitchers figured him out. He struck out more than once per appearance and saw his OPS drop below the .700 mark.

We will miss his defense no doubt. But a lot of that was playing SS. You expect a team to go into a season with Iglesias at 3rd? idk. You are pretty much doubling down your same logic for losing Stephen Drew here. Sox lost 1 shortstop from last year. Not 2.

 

Now, lets take a look at the sox players in 2013 who had career or resurgent offensive years.

 

1. David Ortiz- Ortiz had his highest WAR since 2007, when he was 31 years old. Ortiz just turned 38. How much longer can he be relied upon to hit .300 with a .900+OPS and 30 or more HRs?

Your franchise shortstop is 40.

 

2. Daniel Nava- the guy went from DFA in 2011 to ridiculous season in 2013. His line was phenomenal at .303/.385/.445. When was the last time, prior to 2013, that Nava hit over .300 in a season in which he appeared in more than 100 games? The answer is none. His production in 2013 was completely aberrant from his history, major or minor league. It might have something to do with his .352BABIP. That is not a typo. He might have carved out his niche in the bigs, but he isn't replicating 2013 again

Player X has bad year, player is bad. Player X has good year, player should regress. I think I'm catching onto your general drift. Nava has raked at every single level he's been at where he's had a legitimate starting job. Look at his career numbers majors and minors. Maybe he won't hit .300 but his OBP is no joke.

 

3. Shane Victorino- add Shane to the career high list. His 6.1WAR was the highest of his career last yr. He is definitely a solid player, but he's not proven to be a 6WAR player on the regular. He's probably a 3-4 WAR player, but repeating 6 again would be an aberration based on his career norms. He also had a career high BABIP of .321

 

He probably had the best defensive year of an Sox right fielder since Dwight Evans. That's where most of the WAR came from. His offense was above average all year and he was in and out of the lineup with knicks and knacks. You can argue he wasn't even healthy for the majority of 2013.

 

4. Mike Napoli- Nap has had better years in the past. But this past yr was weird. The guy put up quietly good numbers including a 4WAR. But he also posted the highest BABIP of his career at .367. Sufficed to say, if he keeps K'ing at his current rate, that number can only go down, and with it will come his production.

He's K'd like that his entire career. He put up pretty much career norms across the board this year. Look at his year in 2011 and tell me 2013 is a fluke. Not sure what else to say.

 

5. Mike Carp- 2013 was the first yr he posted a positive WAR. He also had a .385 BABIP. There is no f***ing way he continues to be this hot.

LOL, again that bold statement is complete conjecture. You're right though. Out of all the guys I find it hard to believe he will have the year he did last year. I agree with you on this. However his walk rate went down and his K rate was the highest of his entire career which suggests something else entirely. Just for fun, look at Chris Davis' career numbers before 2012. Look familiar? Carp turned 27 last year. I'm not saying it's a definite, but there is a small chance they could have a young power hitting first basemen who just figured it out last year.

 

Of all the guys you mention you conveniently leave out the fact that Pedroia - the most important player on the Red Sox - had a pretty down year offensively. He must be just getting bad and it's a downward spiral. No way he can possibly rebound.

 

The funny thing is, the sox hit on all cylinders offensively with some guys finding the fountain of youth and others performing at unsustainable levels. I expect a dropoff, a pretty significant one, come 2014. There is no way that Carp, Nap, Victorino, and Nava will continue to post career high BABIPs. And you are taking 3 pretty reliable offensive weapons from 2013 and replacing them with 2 rookies and a washed up veteran.

 

Dude have you looked at your 2014 New York Yankees starting infield? OMG LMFAO.

 

Lets go to the mound. This is where the sox have a lot working for them. Lester returned to being solid and is in his prime. Lackey showed that his stuff is there when his elbow is attached. Father time nips at him a little, but he didn't throw in 2012 and probably has some more in him. Peavy threw as a solid mid rotation guy when he came to the sox. Buchholz was injured, but he is probably the only guy I can point to in the rotation and say that he wont repeat his performance. He isn't pulling a Pedro circa 1999. His ERA will be over 3 in 2014, and who knows how many innings the pussbag can give you. Doubront is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He's actually been a consistent back end starter for 2 yrs, one wonders if he'll take the jump. You have depth with Dempster and Workman. The staff is likely to be good. But the pen will be interesting. Uehara will not repeat his 2013. Actually, nobody will repeat his 2013. He turns 39 and pitched the most innings in his professional career last yr. His career ERA is in the mid 2's, so a repeat of 1.09 isn't likely. Also, it isn't likely that Craig Breslow will give you 60 innings of a sub 2ERA either. That being said, the staff looks pretty good. Lester is a second tier ace (who shows up in the post season) and your 2-5 all are effective starters capable of giving innings and winning games.

 

So in the end, your rotation will likely be near the top, your pen will revert a bit, and your offense will drop a fair amount. Is that enough to fight off the hard charging Yankees or the intact Rays? That is a good question to ask yourself sox nation, as your GM hasn't done s*** this yr.

 

Most of your points in this again is complete conjecture. You also pretty much said the Sox staff blows the Yankees out of the water anyway. You forgot to mention the Red Sox have Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo just chilling in Pawtucket with the best of all of them Henry Owens not too much further away. Meanwhile the Yankees have ZERO depth whatsoever on the bench or in the minors so tell me when when happens if Kuroda and Ellsbury gets hurt? Yankees are GRADE-A f***ED. Meanwhile if an outfielder or starting pitcher go down for the Red Sox, they have replacements coming out of the woodworks off the bench and in Pawtucket that are quite comparable.

Edited January 24, 2014 by DirtDog

[SoxSport]

The Red Sox "lost" nobody this year they didn't want to keep.

 

And nobody is stupid enough to pay what the MF Yankees had to pay to get players.

 

In that sense, they had no competition. LOL

 

The exception is Cano--their big blunder. The one guy they should have overpaid for.

 

It looks like my prediction might come true--they might sign Drew. The Red Sox are smiling.

[reYoukilis]

It looks like my prediction might come true--they might sign Drew. The Red Sox are smiling.

Why would they be smiling? They have no obligation to take him if no one else does. If the Sox dont want him they can just not sign him and move on. Hes too good though to be a bench player IMO but money doesnt seem to be an object for the Yanks.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD, your post is beyond comprehension. But I will break things down into itty bitty words to make things easier to digest.

 

1. JBJ- I think you are pretty reasonable on this. Revert, IMO, was the fact that the kid had a 1.000OPS in High A in 2012 before moving up to AA. AA and AAA showed a different player. A Daniel Nava-esque player. Some power, minimal SB potential, good D, good eye, not a lot on the BA front. What I think most people are missing is the fact that he compiled his numbers with a massive BABIP in the minors. He comes to the bigs, and he compiles a ridiculously low BABIP. If you correct down to a .300 BABIP, he's a useful player, just not Ells. Therefore, he is a downgrade and in his first full season, likely a big one.

 

2. Salty had a career year in 2013. Going from 2013 to 2014, you replace that production with an aging AJ. Big downgrade

 

3. Bogaerts is likely a top 5 prospect. He has all the potential in the world. He is also replacing a guy who played plus D and was worth 3.4WAR. You cannot tell me that Bogaerts is going to give you 3.4WAR. He might, he also might give you a negative WAR. He's a rookie, you don't know what to expect and he is a rookie at the most important position on the diamond

 

In terms of the Ortiz retort, lol, not really a retort. Jeter is 40, that is truth. But he isn't the center of the lineup, the guy who is expected to be far and away the best offensive weapon on the team. Ortiz is your most valuable player in the lineup. I know Pedey is probably your most valuable position player, but offensively, Ortiz is your best player. He's 38 and is one yr removed from Achilles and foot issues. To ignore that is pretty ignorant. I accept Jeter's age and injury history and am pretty sure he isn't playing the whole season. Fully anticipating it. Are you anticipating what would happen if Ortiz got off the juice, ahem, started to act his age?

 

Nice retort to Nava too, lol. Nava NEVER produced like he did in 2013. And his BABIP was unsustainably high. Accept sabermetrics my friend, don't shun them when the argument suits you.

 

Victorino was amazing defensively in 2013. I don't disagree. He also posted his second best offensive season of his career. He had a career high BABIP. And he has the penchant for nagging injuries. I think he is the least likely in my observation to regress significantly, but typically, career high BABIPs lead to disappointing subsequent seasons

 

In terms of Napoli, what aren't you getting? He set a career high with his BABIP and his K rate reached a career high. If his BABIP goes down to a typical .300, he's a hole in your lineup

 

Carp may have figured something out. But there is no way he hits near .400 on balls he keeps in the yard. None. No possible way. And Chris Davis, his BABIP was 50 points lower than Carp's. Food for thought.

 

Pedroia had a 5.4 WAR last yr, which is pretty consistent with his career norms. He posted pretty typical offensive numbers at a time when offense is declining, hence his WAR is higher.

 

And yes, I am looking at the Yankee infield. I am looking at an infield that will probably add Stephen Drew. I am looking at an infield with a SS who will be playing probably less than 2/3 of the games there who will be replaced by a defensive wizard in Ryan. I am looking at a return of Mark Teixeira. I am looking at us adding the best offensive catcher in baseball. Our infield wont be productive circa 2004, but it will hold their own enough to let the OF and the DH play a pretty significant offensive role as well.

 

In terms of the pitching, the sox staff is good. It will be consistent. There wont be any Cy Young winners, and there likely will be one all-star (Lester). I never said your staff blows ours out of the water. We had two guys continuously referred to on here as crap (Nova and Kuroda) who posted ERA's lower than Lester and Lackey, the horses on your staff. We have an ace who came off off-season elbow surgery whose stuff arrived late to the party and was uncharacteristally wild at the end of the yr. We also added the top pitcher on the open market. We also have Banuelos and Pineda healthy. We have 2 pitchers who started for us last yr as well. In terms of pitching depth, we have it, for now. The question is, if they can stay healthy.

[rjortiz]

Alright, I have heard enough talk about how bad the Yankees are. Shall we look at the emperor and see if he has any clothes?

 

The Red Sox won the World Series last year. It is a fact. But 2013 is over and the new year begins pretty soon. As it stands, the first pitcher and catcher date is Feb 6th, a mere 14 days away. What have the Red Sox done this offseason. They have, um, not really, um done anything to better themselves at all.

 

1. They lost a 5 win player in Ellsbury and replaced him with a player who had played 104 games total from 2010-2011 and hasn't actually taken the field the last 2 seasons. Oh, and those two years that he managed to play 104 games, he combined to have an OPS under .700 with a WAR of -0.6. The guy who is likely going to take the field the most, JBJ, had a disastrous opening campaign in the bigs that actually saw him revert a little on return to the minors. The guy has proven that he can walk, but can he continue to hit at the level he has in the minors? Of note, the guy has a .349 career MiLB BABIP. Just an aside, Tony Gwynn's was .341 in the bigs. My guess is, this kid is not going to be a 5 win player, at least not yet

 

2. They lost Jarrod Saltalamacchia and replaced him with AJ Pierzynski. Salty had a 3.6 WAR last yr and somehow graded out positively as a defender per fangraphs. AJ is a 37 yr old catcher coming off a 1.6 WAR season. That's a downgrade right there, at least from the 2013 level.

 

3. They lost Stephen Drew (most likely) and replaced him with Xander Bogaerts. Nobody questions this kids potential, but Drew was a 3.4WAR player last yr. Typically, even future stars don't have very solid rookie campaigns. And Drew's season was very solid.

 

4. Iglesias was traded mid season, and he was a part of your success, with a WAR of 1.6 in 63 games. Middlebrooks takes over the position coming off an abysmal year with a negative WAR after pitchers figured him out. He struck out more than once per appearance and saw his OPS drop below the .700 mark.

 

Now, lets take a look at the sox players in 2013 who had career or resurgent offensive years.

 

1. David Ortiz- Ortiz had his highest WAR since 2007, when he was 31 years old. Ortiz just turned 38. How much longer can he be relied upon to hit .300 with a .900+OPS and 30 or more HRs?

 

2. Daniel Nava- the guy went from DFA in 2011 to ridiculous season in 2013. His line was phenomenal at .303/.385/.445. When was the last time, prior to 2013, that Nava hit over .300 in a season in which he appeared in more than 100 games? The answer is none. His production in 2013 was completely aberrant from his history, major or minor league. It might have something to do with his .352BABIP. That is not a typo. He might have carved out his niche in the bigs, but he isn't replicating 2013 again

 

3. Shane Victorino- add Shane to the career high list. His 6.1WAR was the highest of his career last yr. He is definitely a solid player, but he's not proven to be a 6WAR player on the regular. He's probably a 3-4 WAR player, but repeating 6 again would be an aberration based on his career norms. He also had a career high BABIP of .321

 

4. Mike Napoli- Nap has had better years in the past. But this past yr was weird. The guy put up quietly good numbers including a 4WAR. But he also posted the highest BABIP of his career at .367. Sufficed to say, if he keeps K'ing at his current rate, that number can only go down, and with it will come his production.

 

5. Mike Carp- 2013 was the first yr he posted a positive WAR. He also had a .385 BABIP. There is no f***ing way he continues to be this hot.

 

The funny thing is, the sox hit on all cylinders offensively with some guys finding the fountain of youth and others performing at unsustainable levels. I expect a dropoff, a pretty significant one, come 2014. There is no way that Carp, Nap, Victorino, and Nava will continue to post career high BABIPs. And you are taking 3 pretty reliable offensive weapons from 2013 and replacing them with 2 rookies and a washed up veteran.

 

Lets go to the mound. This is where the sox have a lot working for them. Lester returned to being solid and is in his prime. Lackey showed that his stuff is there when his elbow is attached. Father time nips at him a little, but he didn't throw in 2012 and probably has some more in him. Peavy threw as a solid mid rotation guy when he came to the sox. Buchholz was injured, but he is probably the only guy I can point to in the rotation and say that he wont repeat his performance. He isn't pulling a Pedro circa 1999. His ERA will be over 3 in 2014, and who knows how many innings the pussbag can give you. Doubront is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He's actually been a consistent back end starter for 2 yrs, one wonders if he'll take the jump. You have depth with Dempster and Workman. The staff is likely to be good. But the pen will be interesting. Uehara will not repeat his 2013. Actually, nobody will repeat his 2013. He turns 39 and pitched the most innings in his professional career last yr. His career ERA is in the mid 2's, so a repeat of 1.09 isn't likely. Also, it isn't likely that Craig Breslow will give you 60 innings of a sub 2ERA either. That being said, the staff looks pretty good. Lester is a second tier ace (who shows up in the post season) and your 2-5 all are effective starters capable of giving innings and winning games.

 

So in the end, your rotation will likely be near the top, your pen will revert a bit, and your offense will drop a fair amount. Is that enough to fight off the hard charging Yankees or the intact Rays? That is a good question to ask yourself sox nation, as your GM hasn't done s*** this yr.

 

Red Sox had a RD record of 100-62. They led the AL in runs per game by a comfortable margin. They can experience a big regression, and still be projected to win at least 90 games. The rotation has no weakness, the bullpen is still going to be outstanding, and the offense should still be at least above average. I know you are projecting for all the young players to faceplant, but they all have good upside.

 

I noticed you didn't bring up defense at all. The defense is projected to be above-average at every position except LF. They were good catching the ball last year, and that should carry over in 2014. They will see a little regression, but they are still the favorites in the East.

[jacksonianmarch]

They should go into the yr as the favorites, I agree. Just they aren't favorites by a wide margin, and once a few of those unsustainable dominos fall, they will be looking up at one or more teams

[User Name]

Jacko, a lot of what you post is true, but a lot of it is lathered in Yankee ballwashing subjective nonsense. If you want to call out others on their lack of objectivity regarding the Yankees, i suggest toning down some of the yearly doomsday predictions.

 

Also, DD smacked you pretty hard with some good logic there, so don't try weaseling out with those weak cop-outs.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox are constructed pretty much the same as they were last year when they won the world series excepted they traded Salty for AJ, and lost Ellsbury.

 

There is something about a team that has 6 reliable starters, and 7 legitimate starting prospects options behind those starters. The bullpen will walk the fewest batters in the majors this year. Most positions have prospects waiting in line drooling to take over a spot in case of an injury. They have money, and plenty of trade chips available for a mid-year trade. And Cherrington still has plenty of time to make a trade in the next month. Things are good in Red Sox nation.

 

The Yankees on the other hand, added a lot of talent... but also subtracted a lot of talent from an 80something win team that is only getting older.

[reYoukilis]

This season will definitely be a question mark for us considering the new faces as well as the older ones and losing Ellsbury frankly. Having said that we have a great system in place and its through that system that we got where we got. Why? Chemistry. Not only in terms of getting along but skills that complement each other like a high OBP across the board, being a team that sees more pitches than others, which works well with our good bullpen in that we outlast the opponent, having good veteran pitching with good prospects in waiting and smart catchers to call the games.

 

Its a good question about Ortiz and whether we need a repeat performance from him, especially without Ellsbury. If everybody that stays, stays the same, the only major differences are Pedroia's new thumb, Pierzynski, Middlebrooks, X, JBJ and the promising pitching prospects. If 2/3rds of those things turn out positive, not to mention Sizemore, I think Papi can have merely a good year.

 

Will we win the East? I still think we can because of our chemistry and our system

Edited January 24, 2014 by reYoukilis

[Whatsinaname]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried by our off-season acquisitions vs that of NY

[BSN07]

LOL gotta love Jacko's late January doomsday predicitions! Means ST is almost here!

 

Yankees:

 

Upgraded at C

1B Returning TEX coming off a bad wrist

2B replaced best player with Brian Roberts

SS 40 year old Jeter who is still rehabbing

3B Kelly Johnson, not even a starter for the Blue Jays

LF Gardner, good player poor mans Ellsbury, more durable

CF Ells, Rich mans Gardner, due for a long DL stint as its an even year

RF Ancient Beltran

 

Decent top 5 rotation, absolutely f*** all for back up as far as prospects/veterans, but they are the Yankees, surely those 5 guys will make it all the way through the season.

 

Bp lost the best closer of all time and replaced him with the set up man, rest of BP is meh

 

But ya the Sox replacing Ells with JBJ and Drew with X plus having 6 legit SP and about 5+ SP prospects that can contribute this season totally means the Sox are screwed hahaha

[jacksonianmarch]

Apparently having a top prospect in Banuelos and the guy who started the ASG two yrs ago isn't depth? And how did DD smack me down? He completely disregards the fact that 5 guys on your team, 5 important contributors, had unsustainable seasons. And nobody really had a down yr. That isn't happening again.

[mvp 78]

Jacko is right. Thaaa Yanks will win more this year. They'll still end up in third place though.

[User Name]

Apparently having a top prospect in Banuelos and the guy who started the ASG two yrs ago isn't depth? And how did DD smack me down? He completely disregards the fact that 5 guys on your team, 5 important contributors, had unsustainable seasons. And nobody really had a down yr. That isn't happening again.

 

Pedroia, WMB and the month missed by Ortiz and Victorino don't count? Oh right, that's because it doesn't suit your narrative.....

[BSN07]

Apparently having a top prospect in Banuelos and the guy who started the ASG two yrs ago isn't depth? And how did DD smack me down? He completely disregards the fact that 5 guys on your team, 5 important contributors, had unsustainable seasons. And nobody really had a down yr. That isn't happening again.

 

Both teams have question marks. I'd take the Sox ?'s over the Yanks ?'s. Most of the Red Sox ?'s come from young up and coming players, the Yankees ?'s are on old players returning from injury.

 

And you keep saying AJ replaces Salty and that's a loss. What your're not remembering that it's not just AJ, it's a platoon of AJ and Ross and that is a + on offense and defense. X replaces Drew. Is it hard to imagine that one of the top ss prospects could produce a similar line to Drews? Napoli was around career norms, as was Pedey. Ortiz is probably due for a bit of a decline along with Vic. Nava/Gomes/Carp aren't full time guys, and will be used int he right situations, maybe their numbers fall of some but it's not like they are the anchors of the lineup.

 

Regardless it looks to be another exciting season and I can't wait

 

 

 

I'd also like to point out how laid back it is here for this time of year. Usually at this point even the nice posters are ready to tear someones throat out around here haha

[BSN07]

Apparently having a top prospect in Banuelos and the guy who started the ASG two yrs ago isn't depth? And how did DD smack me down? He completely disregards the fact that 5 guys on your team, 5 important contributors, had unsustainable seasons. And nobody really had a down yr. That isn't happening again.

 

Banelos has lost some luster and how can't count on anything from Pineda(I think thats who you meant) until he roves he's recovered.

 

Both teams have question marks. I'd take the Sox ?'s over the Yanks ?'s. Most of the Red Sox ?'s come from young up and coming players, the Yankees ?'s are on old players returning from injury.

 

And you keep saying AJ replaces Salty and that's a loss. What your're not remembering that it's not just AJ, it's a platoon of AJ and Ross and that is a + on offense and defense. X replaces Drew. Is it hard to imagine that one of the top ss prospects could produce a similar line to Drews? Napoli was around career norms, as was Pedey. Ortiz is probably due for a bit of a decline along with Vic. Nava/Gomes/Carp aren't full time guys, and will be used int he right situations, maybe their numbers fall of some but it's not like they are the anchors of the lineup.

 

Regardless it looks to be another exciting season and I can't wait

 

 

 

I'd also like to point out how laid back it is here for this time of year. Usually at this point even the nice posters are ready to tear someones throat out around here haha

[User Name]

Pedroia was around career norms? News to me.

[User Name]

For fred and all of his speculation:

 

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington told Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com that despite signing Grady Sizemore to a Major League deal, there are no guarantees that the former Guardians star will make the Opening Day roster. Cherington didn't rule out a minor league assignment for Sizemore.

 

Also from Mastrodonato (on Twitter), Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters at tonight's BBWAA dinner, "We're going to have Jackie Bradley in center field." Mastrodonato adds that Cherington said, "We believe in Jackie Bradley."

[User Name]

Per MLBTR:

 

 

Lester Would Take Discount To Stay In Boston

By Steve Adams [January 23 at 7:12pm CST]

While the game's best lefty just signed a record-breaking extension, don't expect Clayton Kershaw's groundbreaking deal to impact extension talks between fellow southpaw Jon Lester and the Red Sox. Lester told reporters today, including Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com, that he knows he won't get free agent market value on an extension but still wants to remain in Boston:

 

"I understand that to stay here, you're not going to get a free-agent deal. You're not going to do it. You can't. It's not possible. You're bidding against one team. I understand you're going to take a discount to stay. Do I want to do that? Absolutely. But just like they want it to be fair for them, I want it to be fair for me and my family. If we can get to something hopefully in Spring Training, that's awesome."

 

Lester recalled the extension inked by Dustin Pedroia -- an eight-year, $110MM deal (seven years, $100MM of new money) that was dwarfed by the 10-year, $240MM contract Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners this offseason: "That's what he wanted to do. I understand that. That's my choice, that's his choice." That agreement was reached in Spring Training. As ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes writes, Lester said he is hopeful that the he and the Red Sox can also work out a deal in the near future, but he wouldn't put any sort of deadline on extension talks. However, he added that he's yet to personally speak to GM Ben Cherington about an extension.

 

The 30-year-old Lester is currently set to earn $13MM this coming season after the Red Sox exercised a club option on him following the 2013 campaign. That option came at the tail-end of a five-year, $30MM contract extension Lester signed at age 25. Though he's headed for a significant pay increase even if he takes a hometown discount, Lester stated that the Red Sox are his No. 1 priority and added, "I want to be here 'til they rip this jersey off my back." Lester is represented by ACES, who negotiated Pedroia's extension last year.

[Palodios]

This is the quote that stands out to me "'I want to win. If that means taking a Pedroia deal where you stay here for less money to be happy and be competitive and win every year, let's do it. Let's get it done."

[BSN07]

.301/.372/.415

 

.307/.370/.454

 

It's not leaps and bounds different. It was down a bit in the SLG department, most likely due to his injury. All in all I would say that falls in line pretty close to career norms. Am I missing something?

[BSN07]

I'd offer Lester 5/90M(5M more then the extension Weaver signed). Maybe a 6th year club option for 20M with a 5M buy out.

[User Name]

.301/.372/.415

 

.307/.370/.454

 

It's not leaps and bounds different. It was down a bit in the SLG department, most likely due to his injury. All in all I would say that falls in line pretty close to career norms. Am I missing something?

 

Nearly 40 points in SLG% is not "a bit down", it's significantly down. With that hand fully healed, we should see a lot more power from Pedroia next season.

[Palodios]

I'd offer Lester 5/90M(5M more then the extension Weaver signed). Maybe a 6th year club option for 20M with a 5M buy out.

 

You can sneak years in there by adding in a current contract year -- 6/100 including this year. Maybe add a signing bonus, saying 110/6 with a club option?

[mvp 78]

I'd offer Lester 5/90M(5M more then the extension Weaver signed). Maybe a 6th year club option for 20M with a 5M buy out.

 

Not enough. That's a lowball offer.

[sk7326]

Alright, I have heard enough talk about how bad the Yankees are. Shall we look at the emperor and see if he has any clothes?

 

The Red Sox won the World Series last year. It is a fact. But 2013 is over and the new year begins pretty soon. As it stands, the first pitcher and catcher date is Feb 6th, a mere 14 days away. What have the Red Sox done this offseason. They have, um, not really, um done anything to better themselves at all.

 

1. They lost a 5 win player in Ellsbury and replaced him with a player who had played 104 games total from 2010-2011 and hasn't actually taken the field the last 2 seasons. Oh, and those two years that he managed to play 104 games, he combined to have an OPS under .700 with a WAR of -0.6. The guy who is likely going to take the field the most, JBJ, had a disastrous opening campaign in the bigs that actually saw him revert a little on return to the minors. The guy has proven that he can walk, but can he continue to hit at the level he has in the minors? Of note, the guy has a .349 career MiLB BABIP. Just an aside, Tony Gwynn's was .341 in the bigs. My guess is, this kid is not going to be a 5 win player, at least not yet

 

2. They lost Jarrod Saltalamacchia and replaced him with AJ Pierzynski. Salty had a 3.6 WAR last yr and somehow graded out positively as a defender per fangraphs. AJ is a 37 yr old catcher coming off a 1.6 WAR season. That's a downgrade right there, at least from the 2013 level.

 

3. They lost Stephen Drew (most likely) and replaced him with Xander Bogaerts. Nobody questions this kids potential, but Drew was a 3.4WAR player last yr. Typically, even future stars don't have very solid rookie campaigns. And Drew's season was very solid.

 

4. Iglesias was traded mid season, and he was a part of your success, with a WAR of 1.6 in 63 games. Middlebrooks takes over the position coming off an abysmal year with a negative WAR after pitchers figured him out. He struck out more than once per appearance and saw his OPS drop below the .700 mark.

 

Now, lets take a look at the sox players in 2013 who had career or resurgent offensive years.

 

1. David Ortiz- Ortiz had his highest WAR since 2007, when he was 31 years old. Ortiz just turned 38. How much longer can he be relied upon to hit .300 with a .900+OPS and 30 or more HRs?

 

2. Daniel Nava- the guy went from DFA in 2011 to ridiculous season in 2013. His line was phenomenal at .303/.385/.445. When was the last time, prior to 2013, that Nava hit over .300 in a season in which he appeared in more than 100 games? The answer is none. His production in 2013 was completely aberrant from his history, major or minor league. It might have something to do with his .352BABIP. That is not a typo. He might have carved out his niche in the bigs, but he isn't replicating 2013 again

 

3. Shane Victorino- add Shane to the career high list. His 6.1WAR was the highest of his career last yr. He is definitely a solid player, but he's not proven to be a 6WAR player on the regular. He's probably a 3-4 WAR player, but repeating 6 again would be an aberration based on his career norms. He also had a career high BABIP of .321

 

4. Mike Napoli- Nap has had better years in the past. But this past yr was weird. The guy put up quietly good numbers including a 4WAR. But he also posted the highest BABIP of his career at .367. Sufficed to say, if he keeps K'ing at his current rate, that number can only go down, and with it will come his production.

 

5. Mike Carp- 2013 was the first yr he posted a positive WAR. He also had a .385 BABIP. There is no f***ing way he continues to be this hot.

 

The funny thing is, the sox hit on all cylinders offensively with some guys finding the fountain of youth and others performing at unsustainable levels. I expect a dropoff, a pretty significant one, come 2014. There is no way that Carp, Nap, Victorino, and Nava will continue to post career high BABIPs. And you are taking 3 pretty reliable offensive weapons from 2013 and replacing them with 2 rookies and a washed up veteran.

 

Lets go to the mound. This is where the sox have a lot working for them. Lester returned to being solid and is in his prime. Lackey showed that his stuff is there when his elbow is attached. Father time nips at him a little, but he didn't throw in 2012 and probably has some more in him. Peavy threw as a solid mid rotation guy when he came to the sox. Buchholz was injured, but he is probably the only guy I can point to in the rotation and say that he wont repeat his performance. He isn't pulling a Pedro circa 1999. His ERA will be over 3 in 2014, and who knows how many innings the pussbag can give you. Doubront is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He's actually been a consistent back end starter for 2 yrs, one wonders if he'll take the jump. You have depth with Dempster and Workman. The staff is likely to be good. But the pen will be interesting. Uehara will not repeat his 2013. Actually, nobody will repeat his 2013. He turns 39 and pitched the most innings in his professional career last yr. His career ERA is in the mid 2's, so a repeat of 1.09 isn't likely. Also, it isn't likely that Craig Breslow will give you 60 innings of a sub 2ERA either. That being said, the staff looks pretty good. Lester is a second tier ace (who shows up in the post season) and your 2-5 all are effective starters capable of giving innings and winning games.

 

So in the end, your rotation will likely be near the top, your pen will revert a bit, and your offense will drop a fair amount. Is that enough to fight off the hard charging Yankees or the intact Rays? That is a good question to ask yourself sox nation, as your GM hasn't done s*** this yr.

 

The Yankees have had a good offseason. But their moves only REALLY made sense if they kept Cano, who is one of the league's 10 best players (and probably more like 5). Without him, the Ellsbury and McCann moves only really offset the loss a little bit. The Tanaka move is risky but a risk that makes perfect sense for them - the rotation needs CC to be excellent though. Considering the Yankees were an 86 win team with the run differential of a below .500 one, there is a lot of ground for them to make up. Assuming usual regression for Boston, they are still a solid 85-90 win outfit on the floor (assuming reasonable health). But there is little evidence that these moves got the Yankees that much closer to Baltimore (who was a better team than the 2012 Orioles without the same wild good luck) let alone Tampa or Boston. As far as the Red Sox go ...

 

C: Mild downgrade, maybe. I think the move was more contractually motivated. I'd expect Vasquez to be up in the 2nd half if he can show some solid evidence of being able to hit

1B: Napoli is a three true outcome guy. Nothing you've written changes that. Low BA, high OBP, and a lot of moonshots. Last year was not a strange year for him. Strikeouts don't matter.

2B: Pedroia will be a year older, but his thumb will be healed. His power should make an uptick.

3B: Middlebrooks can't be as bad as he was last year, and Bogaerts will be an upgrade on what they got from the position last year (virtually nothing)

SS: Drew is a good player whose absence should not be underrated. But Bogaerts ceiling is obvious, and moreover, you take the near guaranteed upgrade at 3B from last year and it offsets some of the "growing pains" you might get here.

LF: It's a platoon - can they cobble a 2-3 win season from a combo of Gomes, Carp, Nava? It is unlikely they ALL stink. There is a job opening here though and I expect that the Sox will be opportunistic.

CF: If Bradley can burp out a .370 OBP with elite defense, that is a fringe all-star already. It is a downgrade on Ellsbury's best, but hardly a fatal one.

RF: So much of Victorino's value is in his defense that you worry as he loses steps. That said, his discovery that left handed hitting is a waste of his time could ease his regression.

DH: Papi is still effective, and that's all you need.

Staff: Good. Cherington did a nice job in the offseason adding some relief arms because you can't count on any bullpen repeating its performance. Actually, it's probably the best part of his offseason. The starters are what they are ... Lester as a fringy 1/elite 2, and a bunch of #2/#3 sorts who can give you good professional innings. You can win a World Series with that - we did after all.