2014 Roster Projections

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wouldn't that mean they're trying to dump Dempster to open up the #6 spot for Workman? Because with Buchholz and Peavy, you know it's going to get some use. I don't see how you can conclude that it'd be Lackey or Peavy instead. That would weaken the rotation and make little sense.

 

Well I just think they want him as a staple in the rotation rather than a depth option, and Peavy and Lackey would bring more back than Dempster.

 

I agree, with Peavy and Buch you're going to have injuries, but I would think they want him to make 25-30 starts, not just 12-15 based on injuries. The way it sounded, I think they want him to go into 2015 as a set piece in the rotation with a full year of starts under his belt.

[User Name]

At the expense of production from the 2014 club? Doubtful.

 

Keep in mind that in 2013 the #6 starter made a hell of a lot more than 20 starts with Buchholz on the shelf for half a season and various other situations. Dumping Dempster and keeping Workman in a swing role giving him near full workload sounds like the correct course of action.

[mvp 78]

With a rotation of Peavy AND Buchholz, there will bemore than enough starts that Workman can fill in for.

[vjcsmoke]

I'm not convinced that that is Carp's true talent. They limited his exposure to LHP, which helped his numbers. I'm skeptical that he'd be that good as a full-time player. Also, keep in mind that he had a unsustainable .385 BABIP to go with that .880 OPS. A regression to the mean should be expected in 2014. He also doesn't add anything on the bases, or in the field.

 

I was also talking about him being a fit with the Giants. They already have Brandon Belt at 1B. They also just signed Mike Morse to play LF. I guess they could use him as a platoon partner for Morse, but that might be the worst defensive outfield duo in the history of the game.

 

I think Carp is a decent backup, but I don't think he'd be enough to pry Blanco away from the Giants, and I also don't think the Red Sox should consider him the heir apparent to 1B/DH.

 

His talent level doesn't have to be .880 again to be worthwhile. If his OPS dropped to .800 to .850 he'd still be a valuable bat off the bench. And Carp doesn't have to be the 'heir apparent' to be valuable. Ortiz and Napoli are older, they can't play every day, and it's good to be able to insert a young power bat into the mix to give those guys days of rest without suffering too much dropoff in offense.

 

Where we differ is your valuation of Blanco is overrated imo. I wouldn't give up Carp straight up for Blanco. You'd want to throw in Carp plus prospects for Blanco. The Giants probably don't move Blanco just because their outfielders suck that bad. I don't want Blanco because I feel he sucks that bad compared to our other outfielders.

 

What about Blanco's speed? 14 steals and 9 caught stealing last season? That's a terrible caught stealing rate of 36%.

 

And Who does he replace? Not Victorino in rightfield with his 5+ WAR. What about Nava? Nava's .800 OPS crushes Blanco, and he also has a superior career .369 OPB vs Blancos career .347. What about Johnny Gomes, he owns a career .770 OPS and has what our manager refers to as the 'IT' factor. How about JBJ? I think it's safe to say if JBJ put out a sub 700 OPS people would be calling for his head.

 

Since Blanco is not an Upgrade to Left or Right field, that only leaves him as a platoon with JBJ, but guess what, Blanco is ALSO a left handed bat. You just do not go with a lefty/lefty platoon. There is just NO FIT here with the Red Sox. I don't see the value for the Giants OR the Red Sox.

[Dojji]

 

And Who does he replace?

 

he replaces Carp on the roster, who fills a redundant role himself, and provides things Carp can't, like an extra backup in centerfield.

 

Blanco wouldn't be the starter. He'd be a backup CF with a really decent on base ability and a touch of speed who was a 2 WAR player each of the last 2 seasons -- steady above replacement level production and very good for a rotating backup. He'd be the guy you could start in center for 2-3 weeks if JBJ sucked and vic was hurt, without losing any sleep over it. That guy can be incredibly valuable when things start to go wrong. Having those guys on the roster can turn a losing streak into a string of .500 ball when you're missing a key player, which WILL happen at some point over the course of a given season. That can make all the difference in making the postseason or not.

[SoxSport]

Wars: Dempster 1.3, Peavy 1.5 (.9 WSX, .6RSX).

 

Pretty close, but Peavy was more effective than Dempster down the stretch, so he made the playoff roster as a starter, Dempster in the BP. As I recall, Dempster never pitched.

 

Dempster is older, and more expendable than Peavy. He has some value in the NL, and they are probably trying to unload him there. Peavy has ties with Nieves from his WSx days, plus he's the better pitcher right now. Plus he's a tough competitor. Keep him.

 

I think they want a defensive guy in the OF to back up Vic.

[redsoxfan3]

Wars: Dempster 1.3, Peavy 1.5 (.9 WSX, .6RSX).

 

Pretty close, but Peavy was more effective than Dempster down the stretch, so he made the playoff roster as a starter, Dempster in the BP. As I recall, Dempster never pitched.

 

Dempster is older, and more expendable than Peavy. He has some value in the NL, and they are probably trying to unload him there. Peavy has ties with Nieves from his WSx days, plus he's the better pitcher right now. Plus he's a tough competitor. Keep him.

 

I think they want a defensive guy in the OF to back up Vic.

 

To be fair, he did pitch in three relief appearances in the postseason. All three appearances were in games that were not close. A game we won 12-2 in the ALDS, a game we lost 3-7 in the ALCS, and a game that we won 8-1 in the WS. He gave up 1 earned run over three innings.

 

There has been a lot of talk about potentially trading a starter. It has been somewhat of an expected quiet offseason for us so far.

 

Mujica was a solid pickup to add some quality appearances out of the bullpen in late innings.

 

Pierzynski was a good pickup that we needed to replace Salty, especially since it was a one year contract to allow us to have the flexibility to see where we are at with Swihart and Vazquez next offseason.

 

We were able to trade a lefty reliever with injury concerns and a 27 year old prospect for a solid backup infielder in Herrera. I am hoping that we do not resign Drew. I think we will have a decent infield with Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, and Pedroia as starters and Herrera capable of backing up all three positions.

 

Bradley is a question mark, but I do like giving him the opportunity in CF. I just wish we had more depth or someone to platoon with him until he proves to be an everyday starter.

 

We filled the need at catcher, first base, utility infielder, and added a late inning reliever. At this point, we need to see what type of player we can get in return for Dempster, Lavarnway, and/or Carp. I think we have the pieces to be able to trade for a solid backup CF/RF. We need someone with speed who can cover a lot of ground and is solid defensively. A decent bat would be nice to go along with that, but it would probably be hard to find. I just don't see us paying Dempster $13.25M to start the season out of the pen.

 

I know that we will have some injuries in the rotation, but I think we have serviceable backup and depth options between Workman, Ranaudo, Owens, Barnes, Webster, and Ball to be able to give us some quality starts. That is exactly why I think we need to look to trade Dempster to see what we can get from him in return.

 

Carp would be nice to have on the bench again, but with Nava capable of playing first, I think we would possibly get more value out of a 5th outfielder in a trade who is a solid defender and who can cover a lot of ground that is capable of playing all three OF positions.

 

With the addition of Pierzynski this offseason, there is concern about Lavarnway's future in Boston. There might not be a better time to trade him, although he is a good backup option if A.J. or David were to get hurt.

 

There are still plenty of things to be looked into, but I find it hard to believe that BC will allow us to have six starters going into the start of the year. I imagine BC will look to trade Dempster and I can see us trying to shop one of Lavarnway and Carp as well to bring over a solid backup OF. I think we will see a couple more offseason moves, maybe even a fairly big trade.

Edited December 21, 2013 by redsoxfan3

[Palodios]

If the Red Sox do in fact make a trade from their SP depth, their biggest need seems to be a RHH outfielder that can play respectable RF. I am just skimming through reasonable RF targets, but there doesn't seem to be much there.

 

Cody Ross and Gerardo Parra are a platoon in Arizona...with the Diamondbacks hard after pitching, maybe there is something there. Cody Ross would be a great fit for the team if the management had treated him a bit better last offseason.

 

Chris Denorfia has one year left with the Padres at 2 million. Three team trade potential? Seems unlikely, but who knows.

 

Alex Rios is another thought... maybe the Rangers go hard after Choo and might be willing to move him?

[User Name]

Why would the Rangers trade Rios? And why would the Sox trade for him? That wouldn't make sense for either team. Denorfia is an interesting target who hits lefties hard.

[redsoxfan3]

Why would the Rangers trade Rios? And why would the Sox trade for him? That wouldn't make sense for either team. Denorfia is an interesting target who hits lefties hard.

 

I do agree about Denorfia. In fact, I would be extremely interested in trading for him. He had a 1.5 dWAR last year playing in all three OF positions, mostly in RF, but he started 36 in CF. He seems like he would be a good addition to the OF. He had the best WAR of his career last year of 4.3. He has a career .833 OPS and .308 BA against lefties. He could definitely be a legitimate player to platoon with Bradley. Not to mention if Victorino gets injured, then I am more comfortable with Denorfia in RF starting than Nava.

 

I wonder what it would take to get him. The Padres signed Seth Smith, so they added some OF depth. I know that they also signed Josh Johnson, but Dempster will probably be able to give them about 170 innings. His ERA last year was not great, but he is an innings eater who is probably a better option than Josh Johnson. Carp would be able to play some LF and 1B and will be able to provide some power in the lineup. Lavarnway is also a possible option. Would it take Dempster and one of Carp and Lavarnway to land Denorfia? Maybe we could do a three team trade. I would not mind trading Dempster and Carp or Lavarnway for Denorfia, but I would ask for more in return, especially if we have to eat some of Dempster's salary.

 

Denorfia went to high school in CT and college in MA. I don't know if he is a Red Sox fan, but it would probably be a bonus for him to play in MA again. It would be a closer commute for his family, assuming that most of them live in the New England area.

Edited December 21, 2013 by redsoxfan3

[Palodios]

Why would the Rangers trade Rios? And why would the Sox trade for him? That wouldn't make sense for either team. Denorfia is an interesting target who hits lefties hard.

 

I ran through the list of the best defensive RHH RF that aren't going to be completely untouchable. As I said, the options aren't great. The scenario I could see is if if the Rangers go hard after Choo and want to drop Rios's payroll. They're paying 13 million-ish after the White Sox offset 1 million, which seems like a ton of money for a corner outfielder with a .278/.324/.443/.767 career line approaching his mid 30s.

[Palodios]

I ran through the list of the best defensive RHH RF that aren't going to be completely untouchable. As I said, the options aren't great. The scenario I could see is if if the Rangers go hard after Choo and want to drop Rios's payroll. They're paying 13 million-ish after the White Sox offset 1 million, which seems like a ton of money for a corner outfielder with a .278/.324/.443/.767 career line approaching his mid 30s.

 

AAaaand Choo signs a 7 year deal with the Rangers.

[User Name]

So why would they then downgrade their offense trading Rios? I don't see it. Even if they did, why would the Red Sox take on a salary dump when they wanna dump salary (probably Dempster's ) themselves?

[reYoukilis]

AAaaand Choo signs a 7 year deal with the Rangers.

Yeah for 130 million 7 years. He was offered 7 years 140 million by the Yanks and he turned it down. Not complaining mind you but is interesting

[User Name]

Texas has no income tax, and the Yankee org is currently kind of a mess. Can ya blame him?

[VA Sox Fan]

O's not signing Balfour after all. Physical reasons.

[dupree]

O's not signing Balfour after all. Physical reasons.

A lot of drama in the Balfour situation. Is he healthy or not, who knows. Reports say he will file a grievance against the O's. If he is healthy i hope he gets paid, if this was a ploy to get him to sign for less or made the agreement and decided to back out then shame on the O's and i hope the truth comes out.

[SoxSport]

I think Dempster has more value in the BP at this point in his career, with his closer experience.

 

Boras is incredible the way he sucks in those $20mil + per yr contracts--using the same big money teams. He is in effect steering the most expensive players to the biggest TV markets. I read that Texas has the 2nd biggest TV market after LA, then the Yankees. That's surprising, but they've moved ahead of NY in TV money.

 

One thing you can count on--Henry will never again take on such contracts. Which puts the Red Sox pretty much out of business with major Bora$ FAs. He even balked at Duquette's original contract with Manny at $20+ mil/yr. It's a wonder he allowed the AdGon and CC contracts, but he's learned his lesson.

[Spudboy]

I wouldn't assume that the Sox brass will never get into another big dollar, long term contract again. You are using your sense of what is logical and what is right. The men who own pro sports franchises are rich boys out to massage their own egos. If the mood suits them to make a big signing splash they will.

[SoxSport]

I wouldn't assume that the Sox brass will never get into another big dollar, long term contract again. You are using your sense of what is logical and what is right. The men who own pro sports franchises are rich boys out to massage their own egos. If the mood suits them to make a big signing splash they will.

 

ha. No disagreement there. Their cups overfloweth with testosterone. Maybe Henry has a sense he doesn't have to this year.

[User Name]

I wouldn't assume that the Sox brass will never get into another big dollar, long term contract again. You are using your sense of what is logical and what is right. The men who own pro sports franchises are rich boys out to massage their own egos. If the mood suits them to make a big signing splash they will.

 

...or if they think that making a big splash will earn them money. Sure worked in 2011.

[User Name]

I think Dempster has more value in the BP at this point in his career, with his closer experience.

 

Boras is incredible the way he sucks in those $20mil + per yr contracts--using the same big money teams. He is in effect steering the most expensive players to the biggest TV markets. I read that Texas has the 2nd biggest TV market after LA, then the Yankees. That's surprising, but they've moved ahead of NY in TV money.

 

One thing you can count on--Henry will never again take on such contracts. Which puts the Red Sox pretty much out of business with major Bora$ FAs. He even balked at Duquette's original contract with Manny at $20+ mil/yr. It's a wonder he allowed the AdGon and CC contracts, but he's learned his lesson.

 

You clearly still don't understand how "TV money" works.

[iortiz]

You clearly still don't understand how "TV money" works.

 

Not sure, whats wrong with SS's post, Please explain us.

[Palodios]

So why would they then downgrade their offense trading Rios? I don't see it. Even if they did, why would the Red Sox take on a salary dump when they wanna dump salary (probably Dempster's ) themselves?

 

As I said, the options aren't great.

[SoxSport]

The way TV money works in MLB, you have two sets of revenues: network and local cable. The network revenues are shared among the teams. The local cable revenues are not, and that's what has given the Yankees the big spending advantage over the years. But that picture is changing with the huge Fox sports west local contracts given to the LA teams--especially the Dodgers. Hence the recent spending sprees the last two years of both the Angels and the Dodgers. Added to the mix apparently now is Texas. The Astros also have a big chunk of TV money, but they don't spend it on FAs. The Mariners also have more money than people think. The Yankees are no longer the big kahuna in TV revenues.

[reYoukilis]

The way TV money works in MLB, you have two sets of revenues: network and local cable. The network revenues are shared among the teams. The local cable revenues are not, and that's what has given the Yankees the big spending advantage over the years. But that picture is changing with the huge Fox sports west local contracts given to the LA teams--especially the Dodgers. Hence the recent spending sprees the last two years of both the Angels and the Dodgers. Added to the mix apparently now is Texas. The Astros also have a big chunk of TV money, but they don't spend it on FAs. The Mariners also have more money than people think. The Yankees are no longer the big kahuna in TV revenues.

Maybe but all eastern teams still have the upper hand in that they come on before its time to go to bed. A big reason why the Yanks have such pull I bet.

[SoxSport]

Maybe but all eastern teams still have the upper hand in that they come on before its time to go to bed. A big reason why the Yanks have such pull I bet.

 

I don't know if that balances out between east and west, and the time differences. I think the more important factor is the population shift from east to west. That probably accounts for the huge Fox west local TV contracts in LA. Maybe also increases in Texas and Seattle. It's about TV market size locally.

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox roster is probably set and will come from the players on their 40 man roster. They probably can get more from their surplus of SPs in spring training when other teams need for increases. Plus if the Sox have spring injuries themselves in their rotation they will be in better shape. Unless the Marlins call about Stanton I think the Sox roster is set going into 2014. Drew would be the exception as the Sox are still looking at a team friendly deal with him. Edited December 24, 2013 by Behindenemylines
Forgot Drew

[Palodios]

Is it just me, or has the AL East stuck with the status quo this year?

 

The Yankees bought a few bats, but lost enough bats to offset it, and replaced Logan with Thornton. They also lost a HoF fame reliever, and another borderline HOF candidate starter.... but will probably replace both.

The Orioles and Jays still don't have pitching.

The Rays still don't have hitting.

The Red Sox stuck with the guys they have.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Palodios

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Dempster has more value in the BP at this point in his career, with his closer experience.

 

Boras is incredible the way he sucks in those $20mil + per yr contracts--using the same big money teams. He is in effect steering the most expensive players to the biggest TV markets. I read that Texas has the 2nd biggest TV market after LA, then the Yankees. That's surprising, but they've moved ahead of NY in TV money.

 

One thing you can count on--Henry will never again take on such contracts. Which puts the Red Sox pretty much out of business with major Bora$ FAs. He even balked at Duquette's original contract with Manny at $20+ mil/yr. It's a wonder he allowed the AdGon and CC contracts, but he's learned his lesson.

 

Bogaerts and JBJ are both Boras clients. Wouldn't be surprised in the least if Bogaerts is a lifer, and maybe JBJ too.