2014 Roster Projections

[a700hitter]

We shouldn't sign people to keep them away from other teams.

We shouldn't but it will look like a little league game if he gets on base with Salty behind the dish. Ells will just run around the bases as the ball gets thrown all over the place.

[win red sox]

Just because his arb number is 4.3 million doesn't mean that's the contract he will receive, I would imagine it would be a incentive laden contract with a low base salary.

[Palodios]

We shouldn't but it will look like a little league game if he gets on base with Salty behind the dish. Ells will just run around the bases as the ball gets thrown all over the place.

 

I hope Ben sees the obvious solution here... don't sign either

[a700hitter]

i hope ben sees the obvious solution here... Don't sign either

lol!!

[marklmw]

I hope Ben sees the obvious solution here... don't sign either

 

Why no love for Ellsbury? He was a big part of 2 Championships ... how many Red Sox players can you say that about. He does not get into trouble off the field, he stays in shape ... he was seriously injured both times ... these were not the little nagging injuries that drive fans crazy. A great lead off hitter is a rare commodity.

[Palodios]

Why no love for Ellsbury? He was a big part of 2 Championships ... how many Red Sox players can you say that about. He does not get into trouble off the field, he stays in shape ... he was seriously injured both times ... these were not the little nagging injuries that drive fans crazy. A great lead off hitter is a rare commodity.

 

Ellsbury's last six seasons were worth an average of 3.71 fWAR, or 3.4 bWar. What happens when you give a 6/120 contract to a guy who averages 3.4 wins a year? As his skills erode, his defense will go fast, with a weak arm won't play in RF, and his bat won't play in LF, and you'll be left with an injury prone mediocre outfielder with no pop.

 

If he averages 3.4 WAR from ages 24-30, it seems unlikely he'll be able to vastly outpace that from ages 30-36 -- which is what he will need to do to be worth 120 million.

[marklmw]

Ellsbury's last six seasons were worth an average of 3.71 fWAR, or 3.4 bWar. What happens when you give a 6/120 contract to a guy who averages 3.4 wins a year? As his skills erode, his defense will go fast, with a weak arm won't play in RF, and his bat won't play in LF, and you'll be left with an injury prone mediocre outfielder with no pop.

 

If he averages 3.4 WAR from ages 24-30, it seems unlikely he'll be able to vastly outpace that from ages 30-36 -- which is what he will need to do to be worth 120 million.

I never said to pay him 120M. I think it is a little unfair to include his 2 injury years and his year 24 in your averages. Certainly not his two seasons with season ending injuries. Use the last 4 healthy seasons and his avg. WAR is 4.75. You certainly cannot penalize the guy for being steamrolled by Beltre. Exclude his rookie season and his WAR jumps to 5.43. He also provides a lot of intangibles that are not measured with WAR ... like how he messes with the pitchers head.

Edited December 2, 2013 by marklmw

[Palodios]

I never said to pay him 120M. I think it is a little unfair to include his 2 injury years and his year 24 in your averages. .

 

How is it unfair? I'm looking at a 6 year sample size-- you're the one cherry picking stats. What if I said he was on steroids in 2011, so those numbers don't count. Without that season, his average bWar per year is down to 2.4 per season. See, that's why cherry-picking career stats is a poor argument.

[marklmw]

Ellsbury has been linked to the Cubs, Yankees and Mariners. I think that the Cubs are too weak to pay for Ellsbury since they are years away from being contenders. The Mariners seem to have cooled on Ell's but you never know. Ell's is not a need for the Yankee's a team with a lot of needs. What cumulative WAR would Ell's have to provide to justify a 105M/6 year contract? I am fairly confident that Ell's can average a WAR of 4.5 for 6 years ... cumulative WAR of 27 along with other intangibles.

[marklmw]

How is it unfair? I'm looking at a 6 year sample size-- you're the one cherry picking stats. What if I said he was on steroids in 2011, so those numbers don't count. Without that season, his average bWar per year is down to 2.4 per season. See, that's why cherry-picking career stats is a poor argument.

Ellsbury has never been linked to PED's ... WAR favors games played ... Beltre busted 3 of his ribs running into left field like a mad man. You have to be real here.

Even if we took 80% of his 2013 numbers (he broke his foot ... remember ... same injury that sidelined Pedroia) his adjusted WAR is 4.64. Obviously you do not appreciate what Ellsbury brings to the team and his contributions to 2 world championships.

[marklmw]

Defensively Ellsbury is stellar ... and so is JBJ ... and so is Victorino. Even if the Sox need to sign Ellsbury for 5-6 years ... it is 2014 & 2015 that we can use him the most. It allows the team to work JBJ into the bigs gradually. If Ellsbury can stay healthy in 2014 & 2015 Boston can move him for the remaining 4 years. There will be a contender in need of an experienced player like Ellsbury. There is risk signing any player but Ellsbury has proven that he will put in the work to return if injured. He is a class act.

[marklmw]

I will tell you one thing ... I would be transitioning Mookie Betts to the outfield ... Center or Left ... I do not think he has the arm for right. This guy could become the next great lead off hitter. JBJ can always be transitioned to left as he projects to be a 15-20 HR kind of player.

[seabeachfred]

I will tell you one thing ... I would be transitioning Mookie Betts to the outfield ... Center or Left ... I do not think he has the arm for right. This guy could become the next great lead off hitter. JBJ can always be transitioned to left as he projects to be a 15-20 HR kind of player.

 

If I can make this analogy between Ellsbury's importance to the Red Sox and what has transpired the past few seasons. So we sign Ellsbury to a five year contract and a mutual sixth year option year, that is, if he decides to sign with us. For three or four years we have the same Ells, good gap hitter, terrific speed, and a prize leadoff man. The next two seasons at 34 or 35 his speed diminishes and he is nothing more than an average base stealer and a 290 hitter with 5 to 10 dongs a year. Still we win at least one WS with him leading off and add another one during that stretch, or at least an AL Title. Would it not be worth it, two titles, or one title and one league championship those five years? I think it would be worth it. It is just like what the team did this year. Would we endure another 2012 debacle if we could have a 2013 championship the next year? I would take that in a minute. And we will not have such a bad season as 2012 in our lifetimes.

[SeanJohn93]

The Pirates designated Garrett Jones for assignment. This time last year, people on this board were talking about getting him for 1st base. He could be had on a cheap non-guaranteed contract to see if a change of scenery could help him if we do not resign Napoli.

[BornToRun]

I'm all in favor of bringing Ells back, but I draw the line at or around 5/100. Anything too far over that and I hope we walk away.

[Bellhorn04]

Why no love for Ellsbury? He was a big part of 2 Championships ... how many Red Sox players can you say that about. He does not get into trouble off the field, he stays in shape ... he was seriously injured both times ... these were not the little nagging injuries that drive fans crazy. A great lead off hitter is a rare commodity.

 

There isn't a Sox fan alive who wouldn't like him back. It's just that we're all so educated now in the realities of big contracts, and Ellsbury's next contract looks like one of those that is likely to be an albatross.

[marklmw]

There isn't a Sox fan alive who wouldn't like him back. It's just that we're all so educated now in the realities of big contracts, and Ellsbury's next contract looks like one of those that is likely to be an albatross.

 

We could have lived with the AGon contract ... not AGon the person ... but if necessary we could have lived with AGon and his contract ... it was the silly Crawford contract that was the Albatross. A six year contract with Ellsbury takes he out to age 35.

[a700hitter]

We could have lived with the AGon contract ... not AGon the person ... but if necessary we could have lived with AGon and his contract ... it was the silly Crawford contract that was the Albatross. A six year contract with Ellsbury takes he out to age 35.

We could have lived with both contracts if they had played up to their potential in 2011 and won a championship. The major problem is that 3 of their biggest money guys were whining dogs with no heart. They were losers that spread cancer in the clubhouse.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Thinking out loud - if the Sox can't land Hanigan or Santana, I think I would rather see them push Vazquez a bit and let him hit .225/.295/.315 and throw out 98% of runners than to A) resign Salty or give the ropes to Lavarnway or Butler.

 

Giving Vazquez a year of splitting duties with David Ross certainly wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I would hate to have 3 rookies in the 4 up-the-middle positions, but that may be the best option.

[BornToRun]

I seriously doubt that Vasquez can throw 98% of base stealers.

[marklmw]

Thinking out loud - if the Sox can't land Hanigan or Santana, I think I would rather see them push Vazquez a bit and let him hit .225/.295/.315 and throw out 98% of runners than to A) resign Salty or give the ropes to Lavarnway or Butler.

 

Giving Vazquez a year of splitting duties with David Ross certainly wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I would hate to have 3 rookies in the 4 up-the-middle positions, but that may be the best option.

 

I like that idea. Although many times the base is stolen on the pitcher not the catcher ... take Dempster for example ... only 1 CS for the entire season with Dempster on the mound. But your point is well taken ... Ross can mentor Vasquez throughout the season.

[marklmw]

We could have lived with both contracts if they had played up to their potential in 2011 and won a championship. The major problem is that 3 of their biggest money guys were whining dogs with no heart. They were losers that spread cancer in the clubhouse.

 

Very true ... but you cannot put Ellsbury in that category. He is a winner not whiner.

[marklmw]

I seriously doubt that Vasquez can throw 98% of base stealers.

 

Should he throw out 40% he would be considered elite.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I seriously doubt that Vasquez can throw 98% of base stealers.

 

That was sarcasm. He will throw out 40%+ though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

For what its worth, Fangraphs Steamer projections have Vazquez at .249/.314/.362 next year (which is plenty of offense for next season, given his defense)

[marklmw]

For what its worth, Fangraphs Steamer projections have Vazquez at .249/.314/.362 next year (which is plenty of offense for next season, given his defense)

 

I agree ... choice # 1.) Hanigan choice # 2. Vasquez. Hanigan on a 3 year deal would be terrific ... as this will be the last season for Ross.

 

I would like to see the following players inked for 2014:

1. Hanigan

2. Napoli

3. Ellsbury

 

We can repeat with these signings.

[BornToRun]

That was sarcasm. He will throw out 40%+ though.

 

I was guessing typo but it seems my sarcasm detector is busted.

[DirtDog]

Hanigan on a 3 year deal would be terrific ... .

 

Uhhh... If we can't give 3 years to Salty after a career year I doubt we will lock up Hanigan for 3 years after a bad one

[DirtDog]

What do you guys think about signing Grady Sizemore to a minor league deal with invite to spring training? Fills a need as a good 5th OF/25th man next year. I assume in the market he'd have to take a bench role, but question is will anyone else give him a major league deal?

[seabeachfred]

We could have lived with both contracts if they had played up to their potential in 2011 and won a championship. The major problem is that 3 of their biggest money guys were whining dogs with no heart. They were losers that spread cancer in the clubhouse.

 

And when the going got tough in the NLCS against the Cardinals they proved just what kind of leaders they weren't. All they could was bitch and moan about how the Card pitchers were throwing at the and trying to show them up when it was their compadres on their own team that were acting like clowns in the dugout as well as on the field. I hold both Crawford and Gonzales in very low esteem, but the guy I was surprised at was Josh Beckett. Face it, we was the bell cow of our 2007 WS Title. He was an ace and horse in every sense of the word and his competitiveness and sneers on the mound was manna from Heaven for this person. Coming to ST in 2008 with a gut and then two years later saying that baseball was no longer that important in his life were red flags that fortunately we caught in time---well almost in time.