2014 Roster Projections

[mvp 78]

We won the 2013 World Series people ... we won the World Series with Salty and Ross. We can get by another season with the tandem in tack. Hopefully we can locate an young catcher or one of our catchers on the farm will develop. I am very much opposed to signing McCann. IMO McCann is not a significant upgrade and he will cost a lot of money. I would rather use the extra 3-4M per season that would be spent on McCann over Salty and use it to keep Ellsbury or towards Tanaka. Please not McCann.

 

Don't need Tanaka. We won ghe WS without him!

[Palodios]

Now I'd like to see a list of the buy-low guys from the last few years that have actually paid off.

 

AJ Burnett and Liriano come to mind. Bartolo Colon (several times). Alfredo Aceves (until he went bat-s*** insane). Andrew Miller went from an extremely talented guy to a very solid lefty. Freddy Garcia for the Yanks. Pretty much every single pitcher the Rays have signed in the last decade.

 

It happens all the time -- I think this year's batch of buy-low pitchers is significantly deeper than we've seen in years past. I can't stress enough that as an arm-chair GM I have absolutely no idea which of these guys will succeed, but I think that is what the Red Sox's scouting department is for -- figuring out which of these guys can turn around their careers.

[Palodios]

If your scouts are telling you... "Roy Halladay looks like he is back. Get this guy" Do you hesitate to pay him 8-10 million for one season?

[mvp 78]

If your scouts are telling you... "Roy Halladay looks like he is back. Get this guy" Do you hesitate to pay him 8-10 million for one season?

 

Sure, they can just offset some NASCAR revenue!

[marklmw]

Sure, they can just offset some NASCAR revenue!

 

laughing here MVP ... no posting fee for Holiday.

[marklmw]

Don't need Tanaka. We won ghe WS without him!

 

Are you a fan of McCann?

[mvp 78]

Are you a fan of McCann?

 

Not really. Too much $$$.

 

I'd want Salty on a 3 year deal (at most) so that I could transition the younger guys in there in a few years.

 

If they don't get Salty, I'd say give Lavarnway the job this year. If he stinks, bring up Butler. By 2016, I want Vasquez as the primary catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

AJ Burnett and Liriano come to mind. Bartolo Colon (several times). Alfredo Aceves (until he went bat-s*** insane). Andrew Miller went from an extremely talented guy to a very solid lefty. Freddy Garcia for the Yanks. Pretty much every single pitcher the Rays have signed in the last decade.

 

It happens all the time -- I think this year's batch of buy-low pitchers is significantly deeper than we've seen in years past. I can't stress enough that as an arm-chair GM I have absolutely no idea which of these guys will succeed, but I think that is what the Red Sox's scouting department is for -- figuring out which of these guys can turn around their careers.

 

I know one thing - one of the world's thinnest books would be:

 

'Buy-low starters who have been big successes for the Red Sox.'

 

[User Name]

AJ Burnett and Liriano come to mind. Bartolo Colon (several times). Alfredo Aceves (until he went bat-s*** insane). Andrew Miller went from an extremely talented guy to a very solid lefty. Freddy Garcia for the Yanks. Pretty much every single pitcher the Rays have signed in the last decade.

 

It happens all the time -- I think this year's batch of buy-low pitchers is significantly deeper than we've seen in years past. I can't stress enough that as an arm-chair GM I have absolutely no idea which of these guys will succeed, but I think that is what the Red Sox's scouting department is for -- figuring out which of these guys can turn around their careers.

 

Burnett was a trade/salary dump. He doesn't qualify as a buy-low type guy.

[marklmw]

Not really. Too much $$$.

 

I'd want Salty on a 3 year deal (at most) so that I could transition the younger guys in there in a few years.

 

If they don't get Salty, I'd say give Lavarnway the job this year. If he stinks, bring up Butler. By 2016, I want Vasquez as the primary catcher.

 

Sounds reasonable

[Palodios]

Burnett was a trade/salary dump. He doesn't qualify as a buy-low type guy.

 

I may have referred to the bargain-bin as a pile of free agents earlier, but the idea is the same. Get a guy who has succeeded in the past, and can be had for far less than his full potential.

[Palodios]

I know one thing - one of the world's thinnest books would be:

 

'Buy-low starters who have been big successes for the Red Sox.'

 

In all fairness, Brad Penny, pre-Frankenstein Colon, Padilla, a 40-something Smoltz, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, etc are not in the same tier as some of the better bargain-signings this year.

[Dojji]

Burnett was a trade/salary dump. He doesn't qualify as a buy-low type guy.

 

Dunno why you'd say that, a lot of good low-risk investments fall under that category.

[Jasonbay44]

If your scouts are telling you... "Roy Halladay looks like he is back. Get this guy" Do you hesitate to pay him 8-10 million for one season?

 

I think Halladay is definitely a guy worth looking at, especially if its only a 1 year deal.

[sk7326]

Nope. 2/12. Colon and Kazmir are good examples.

 

Kazmir is a fascinating possibility ... he might command $5M or so in this environment ... but there is something to be dreamt there. A bit more expensive in the 1-year category might be Dan Haren, whose fastball is below average now, but whose splitter and command are still good enough to be effective. He was good after his DL stint in Washington a year ago.

[mvp 78]

Kazmir is garbage. I'd rather take my chances with Peavy/Dempster/Webster/RDLR/Workman

[SoxSport]

Anybody who pays $20 mil to Ells is overpaying. He's more of a Bourne type of player who had trouble getting $14 mil. He's lucky if he gets $15 mil over an extended period, and I doubt it will be in Boston, with Bradley waiting in the wings.

 

The priority at catcher should be defense. That was abundantly clear in the World Series. It hit them on the head.

[sk7326]

Anybody who pays $20 mil to Ells is overpaying. He's more of a Bourne type of player who had trouble getting $14 mil. He's lucky if he gets $15 mil over an extended period, and I doubt it will be in Boston, with Bradley waiting in the wings.

 

The priority at catcher should be defense. That was abundantly clear in the World Series. It hit them on the head.

 

Did it, really? Defense broke the tie when nobody was hitting. That Ross had a solid week does not really answer anything about long term employment.

 

When talking about how much Ellsbury is worth (or anybody else) it is hard to discuss without factoring context ... each team's revenue formulas, etc. Is Ellsbury worth 20M? If I were Seattle who is not very close to contending, not really. If I were Pittsburgh, on the verge of something important and with some extra money that comes with a young team reaching the playoffs a year before? Probably not - but there are some calculations. If I were Texas, who fields a pretty darn good everyday lineup and is probably a player away from being a serious force again? That could be different.

 

Ellsbury is a lot better than Bourn ... although how you regard his injuries (luck vs being injury prone) will impact the valuation. Ellsbury was the 3rd best CF in the league last year ... so stands to reason he will get a big payday.

[redsoxrules]

Did it, really? Defense broke the tie when nobody was hitting. That Ross had a solid week does not really answer anything about long term employment.

 

When talking about how much Ellsbury is worth (or anybody else) it is hard to discuss without factoring context ... each team's revenue formulas, etc. Is Ellsbury worth 20M? If I were Seattle who is not very close to contending, not really. If I were Pittsburgh, on the verge of something important and with some extra money that comes with a young team reaching the playoffs a year before? Probably not - but there are some calculations. If I were Texas, who fields a pretty darn good everyday lineup and is probably a player away from being a serious force again? That could be different.

 

Ellsbury is a lot better than Bourn ... although how you regard his injuries (luck vs being injury prone) will impact the valuation. Ellsbury was the 3rd best CF in the league last year ... so stands to reason he will get a big payday.

 

4th Best

[sk7326]

4th Best

 

Trout, McCutchen ... Gomez had better numbers, but the lack of track record plus how much of it was tied in defense shifts Ellsbury up to #3 ... but Gomez at #3 is certainly reasonable.

[User Name]

Dunno why you'd say that, a lot of good low-risk investments fall under that category.

 

Did you read the actual question? The actual question was regarding garbage bin free agent acquisitions.

 

Please read through the thread before jumping in.

[marklmw]

1/3 of the time Trout played left or DH ... point is Ellsbury is a dam good lead off hitter. Trout also does not lead off. Ellsbury hit .320 when leading off. Is he worth 20m for 5 or 6 years ... maybe not when you have a stud in JBJ in the wings.

[User Name]

I may have referred to the bargain-bin as a pile of free agents earlier, but the idea is the same. Get a guy who has succeeded in the past, and can be had for far less than his full potential.

 

Yeah but in doing so, you're moving your own goalposts. Please try to be a bit more clear if you are referring to buy-low options in general, only trades, or only FA's, which was your original point.

[marklmw]

Kazmir is garbage. I'd rather take my chances with Peavy/Dempster/Webster/RDLR/Workman

 

Any thought of going to a 6 man rotation to begin the season assuming we have an abundance of SP coming out of Spring training. A win is a win ... who cares if our # 6 is going up an opponents # 1. Sox can put up numbers on any SP ... Wacha Wacha Wacha

[User Name]

Probably not, mainly because pitchers are creatures of habit. Teams will do it from time to time to give their starters extra rest (the Tigers did for a bit this year IIRC) but not at the beginning of the season when guys are still building arm strength. It'd throw them off their regime.

[Behindenemylines]

Sox biggest needs with their everyday players is at 1B and at catcher. Unless some blows him away with a crazy offer I think Napoli will be back. Because of his power numbers from the right side and his ability to play 1B effectively I think the Sox are comfortable bringing him back. Catching is a little different. The two names I'm hearing are McCann and Ruiz. McCann / Ross worked well together in Atlanta and McCann would be an upgrade defensively. Ruiz would be a bridge signing until the Sox think either Vazquez or Swihart are ready for the show. Salty is still a long shot, but I think he gets a bigger offer else where then the Sox are willing to pay. Depth starting pitchers and bullpen arms are also needed.

[Palodios]

Yeah but in doing so, you're moving your own goalposts. Please try to be a bit more clear if you are referring to buy-low options in general, only trades, or only FA's, which was your original point.

 

My original point was very clearly about getting players at low-cost. I don't understand why it matters where they come from (assuming they won't cost real prospects to obtain).

[User Name]

My original point was very clearly about getting players at low-cost. I don't understand why it matters where they come from (assuming they won't cost real prospects to obtain).

 

That's exactly why it matters where they come from. Throwing money without draft pick compensation or prospect cost is not the same as only money.

 

Think about it, sometimes a crappy prospect turns out to be a guy of real value. David Murphy was a throw-in in the Gagne deal, and he sure would have looked good in a Sox uniform for a number of years.

[Palodios]

I don't see how that would be different than jettisoning a guy from the 40 man roster to make room for a new signee. Sometimes the guys you trade turn into miracles. It sucks but it happens.

[User Name]

I don't see how that would be different than jettisoning a guy from the 40 man roster to make room for a new signee. Sometimes the guys you trade turn into miracles. It sucks but it happens.

 

Again, dumping money is not the same as giving up money+prospects. It just isn't. And in these types of deals, you don't "jettison" guys from the 40-man all the time. Sometimes you have to give up value. In the Burnett trade for example, they gave up a guy with potential who ended up being traded for Vernon Wells.