2014 Roster Projections

[Thunder]

I agree that Drew should go, especially with Cecchini being added to the mix by 2015. With Salty leaving, I would trade Lavarnway and call up Butler, but only trade Lavarnway when we think Butler is ready.

[redsoxrules]

Drew is not a role player, he's an every day SS.

[marklmw]

Drew is not a role player, he's an every day SS.

 

Should Napoli sign with another club I can see Drew, Bogaerts with Middlebrooks at 1B. Why not. We had Youk moving between 1st and 3rd for many years. If Middlebrooks does not work out we can deal with that when and if the time comes. Can Nava play 1B. Carp has but not very well.

[seabeachfred]

Christ, I hope not. I go 5/100 on Ells at the most and with the rumors that he's looking for Crawford money, I don't think that gets it done.

 

I love Ells and I'm ecstatic that his last great year in a Red Sox uniform helped us win it all but I don't think he's back unless we do something incredibly stupid.

 

BTR---a little vignette after the parade pretty much told me all I need to know about what is on Ellsbury;s mind. When reporters wanted to interview him he said he would be right back and headed to the clubhouse for who knows what. He never came back out. To me that spoke volumes where Jacoby is heading. He is leaving Boston on the first plane available.

[jung]

I suppose you could argue that the power expectations for a 1st baseman are greater than those of a 3rd baseman. On the other hand Will's real problems at the plate are more like, will he hit at all. Might be easier to assume that if he hits at all he will have some pop than to worry about him being a singles hitter.

[seabeachfred]

Should Napoli sign with another club I can see Drew, Bogaerts with Middlebrooks at 1B. Why not. We had Youk moving between 1st and 3rd for many years. If Middlebrooks does not work out we can deal with that when and if the time comes. Can Nava play 1B. Carp has but not very well.

 

Put Middlebrooks at third and keep him there. He had that sophomore jinx but is smart and heady enough to make adjustments and he did just that when he was recalled this summer. You don't shitcan a guy who can hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs and he has the ability to do just that---and surprise as it may seem, we can use some good right handed power we will get in Will and Xander.

[jung]

In Ells case you have to figure the Sox made the QO purely for the pick. Drew may just take the QO and look to improve his offense over the course of a year. Imagine how many dollars it would mean to Drew in a contract if he just added a bit more offense to his defense? You would think his defense is not going anyplace over a time period as short as a year. So maybe the way he might figure it, the downside to taking the QO is nothing barring injury and the upside could be pretty tasty. $14M for 1 year at SS is a hell of a sweet way to get paid to work on your hitting.

 

If that happens it makes for an interesting situation for WMB. You have to figure if that happens Drew gets SS and XB gets 3rd. Will gets to go back to AAA or maybe ends up with some time at 1st.

Edited November 5, 2013 by jung

[Dojji]

Should Napoli sign with another club I can see Drew, Bogaerts with Middlebrooks at 1B. Why not. We had Youk moving between 1st and 3rd for many years. If Middlebrooks does not work out we can deal with that when and if the time comes. Can Nava play 1B. Carp has but not very well.

 

What on earth is this fascination with moving Middlebrooks to first base? Until he gets his consistency right Will Middlebrooks would be a very troubled first baseman.

 

Besides, if there's a hole at first, you have to think that Mike Carp would get first crack at it, as a lefty power hitter he's the safer bet.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Dojji

[Dojji]

. With Salty leaving, I would trade Lavarnway and call up Butler, but only trade Lavarnway when we think Butler is ready.

 

What?

 

I mean, Butler is one of my guys, and I think he'll make someone a good backup at some point, but shedding both Lavarnway and Salty and starting him with Ross next year... ummhuzzawha?

 

I mean it's not even like it has zero chance of working if it was tried, it's that there's NO way it will be tried. the FO likes to have a starting catcher who hits, and Butler isn't going to hit at first, his consistency at AAA is too low to expect it of him while he's adjusting to catching in the big leagues.

[jung]

I definitely don't want to see WMB moved to 1st. I am just wondering aloud what the Sox do if Drew takes the QO because if I were Drew I would find $14M to improve my hitting looking for a much bigger contract offer one year later pretty appealing.

 

As for Salty, just because the Sox did not offer him a QO does not mean they won't try to bring him back. I just think for one thing the Sox were unwilling to lay out QO money for Salty even for one year and likely believe that even with few catchers out there, the bidding for Salty is not going to get outrageous. In fact, Salty may well decide that taking shorter money to stay in Boston is way better at this point than moving on. He knows this pitching staff now and Salty may not be ready to leave the security blanket of knowing the lay of the land in Boston. Leaving here right now could actually turn out to be very disappointing for Salty. So it is entirely possible that the Sox are banking on getting Salty back here on a reasonable deal and making Salty/Ross the bridge to the next catching solution. On the other hand, the Sox may be ready to say goodbye to Salty and bring up Lavs or go in a completely different direction. I doubt they want to pay big bucks for the really big bucks catching option out there this year though. So realistically it looks to me like Salty/Ross or Lavs/Ross for 2014.

[marklmw]

In Ells case you have to figure the Sox made the QO purely for the pick. Drew may just take the QO and look to improve his offense over the course of a year. Imagine how many dollars it would mean to Drew in a contract if he just added a bit more offense to his defense? You would think his defense is not going anyplace over a time period as short as a year. So maybe the way he might figure it, the downside to taking the QO is nothing barring injury and the upside could be pretty tasty. $14M for 1 year at SS is a hell of a sweet way to get paid to work on your hitting.

 

If that happens it makes for an interesting situation for WMB. You have to figure if that happens Drew gets SS and XB gets 3rd. Will gets to go back to AAA or maybe ends up with some time at 1st.

 

imo ... if Drew finds a 3-4 year offer from another club he is good as gone.

[marklmw]

What on earth is this fascination with moving Middlebrooks to first base? Until he gets his consistency right Will Middlebrooks would be a very troubled first baseman.

 

Besides, if there's a hole at first, you have to think that Mike Carp would get first crack at it, as a lefty power hitter he's the safer bet.

This discussion is all contingent on Drew being back next season. Hold on to your hat.

[Thunder]

What?

 

I mean, Butler is one of my guys, and I think he'll make someone a good backup at some point, but shedding both Lavarnway and Salty and starting him with Ross next year... ummhuzzawha?

 

I mean it's not even like it has zero chance of working if it was tried, it's that there's NO way it will be tried. the FO likes to have a starting catcher who hits, and Butler isn't going to hit at first, his consistency at AAA is too low to expect it of him while he's adjusting to catching in the big leagues.

 

I'm not saying trade Lavarnway right now. Trade him when Butler is fully developed, meaning the end of 2014 at the earliest.

[BornToRun]

Salty not getting the QO isn't a guarantee that he's not back next year. Just because we don't want to pay him 14.1 million dollars is not a certain indicator that we don't want him.

 

The catching market is thin and I don't see us overpaying for McCann or signing an old and coming off a PED suspension Carlos Ruiz.

 

I like Salty and hope he's back here for 2014 and perhaps beyond that but ignoring my own biases, he's probably the best candidate to be our catcher going forward than anything else currently on the market.

[marklmw]

I definitely don't want to see WMB moved to 1st. I am just wondering aloud what the Sox do if Drew takes the QO because if I were Drew I would find $14M to improve my hitting looking for a much bigger contract offer one year later pretty appealing.

 

As for Salty, just because the Sox did not offer him a QO does not mean they won't try to bring him back. I just think for one thing the Sox were unwilling to lay out QO money for Salty even for one year and likely believe that even with few catchers out there, the bidding for Salty is not going to get outrageous. In fact, Salty may well decide that taking shorter money to stay in Boston is way better at this point than moving on. He knows this pitching staff now and Salty may not be ready to leave the security blanket of knowing the lay of the land in Boston. Leaving here right now could actually turn out to be very disappointing for Salty. So it is entirely possible that the Sox are banking on getting Salty back here on a reasonable deal and making Salty/Ross the bridge to the next catching solution. On the other hand, the Sox may be ready to say goodbye to Salty and bring up Lavs or go in a completely different direction. I doubt they want to pay big bucks for the really big bucks catching option out there this year though. So realistically it looks to me like Salty/Ross or Lavs/Ross for 2014.

 

Could be that if Drew accepts the QO that the Sox end up offering him a multi-year deal. If so this is where the Middlebrooks at first comes in. Can Middlebrooks give the team Napoli type of numbers? One thing the Sox would like to have is a good balance of younger and experienced players.

[Thunder]

Salty not getting the QO isn't a guarantee that he's not back next year. Just because we don't want to pay him 14.1 million dollars is not a certain indicator that we don't want him.

 

The catching market is thin and I don't see us overpaying for McCann or signing an old and coming off a PED suspension Carlos Ruiz.

 

I like Salty and hope he's back here for 2014 and perhaps beyond that but ignoring my own biases, he's probably the best candidate to be our catcher going forward than anything else currently on the market.

 

So even if Salty stays, we can still trade Lavarnway for Butler. Lavarnway is a good young catcher, and some teams could be drooling over him. Ross has two years left tops, so by 2015, Butler could be the new thing. From what I've seen of Butler, he could be the next Jason Varitek but faster, and a better hitter.

[sk7326]

So even if Salty stays, we can still trade Lavarnway for Butler. Lavarnway is a good young catcher, and some teams could be drooling over him. Ross has two years left tops, so by 2015, Butler could be the new thing. From what I've seen of Butler, he could be the next Jason Varitek but faster, and a better hitter.

 

Lavarnway has value if he can actually catch - still up in the air. Otherwise he's a fringy DH, though he might have a better chance at doing well there.

[rjortiz]

I'm waiting to see how this all plays out. When he stays here, I reserve the right to rub it in all of your faces.

Ellsbury would have to be very stupid to accept a QO. He'd be leaving at least $86 million on the table.

[rjortiz]

I think Ellsbury's tenure in Boston ended the moment they offered Drew the QO.

[marklmw]

I think Ellsbury's tenure in Boston ended the moment they offered Drew the QO.

 

Really? What makes you say that?

[rjortiz]

imo ... if Drew finds a 3-4 year offer from another club he is good as gone.

 

3/36 for Drew is probably the absolute minimum someone would have to bid to get him to reject the QO.

[User Name]

So even if Salty stays, we can still trade Lavarnway for Butler. Lavarnway is a good young catcher, and some teams could be drooling over him. Ross has two years left tops, so by 2015, Butler could be the new thing. From what I've seen of Butler, he could be the next Jason Varitek but faster, and a better hitter.

 

Then you've seen very little. Butler does not project as a starter. He's not that good.

[rjortiz]

Really? What makes you say that?

 

Drew accepts the QO, which gives the Red Sox about $28 million left to spend. Ellsbury is going to command $20 million at least. Signing him would leave only $8 million to fill catcher and first base.

[a700hitter]

After 2004, we lost 3 guys to free agency-- OCab, Pedro and Lowe. Tek was also a FA. This year Napoli, Drew, Salty and Ells are eligible for free agency. Losing Pedro and Lowe was very disruptive to our pitching and that was magnified by Schilling's injury that cost him a lot of time oit of the rotation. If we lose some or all of this year's crop, it shouldn't be too disruptive to the team. Personally and as a fan, I would prefer that Ells be retained. The others are more easily replaceable. Ells speed is an elite weapon and very rare commodity. I'd be disappointed to lose him.

[Palodios]

After 2004, we lost 3 guys to free agency-- OCab, Pedro and Lowe. Tek was also a FA. This year Napoli, Drew, Salty and Ells are eligible for free agency. Losing Pedro and Lowe was very disruptive to our pitching and that was magnified by Schilling's injury that cost him a lot of time oit of the rotation. If we lose some or all of this year's crop, it shouldn't be too disruptive to the team. Personally and as a fan, I would prefer that Ells be retained. The others are more easily replaceable. Ells speed is an elite weapon and very rare commodity. I'd be disappointed to lose him.

 

Napoli is going to be tough to replace. Sure he struck out a lot, but he had the best UZR/150 among first basemen, and had some very clutch playoff hits. When he got hot, he carried the team. Everyone seems to think he will re-sign, and I sure hope he does.

[Dojji]

We have too much young catching waiting in the wings for me to think a veteran starting catcher is coming to Boston. With Ross, we're perfectly set up to put the team's young future starter of choice on the roster with him and let the youngster learn on the job with Ross on hand to take over if there's a problem.

 

The issue is that we have as many as three potential starters of choice, depending on whether you want to try to develop a catcher who's offense first (Lavarnway) one who won't hit that much but performs at a very high defensive level (Vazquez) or a guy who may not stand out along any one vector but is also notably short on glaring weaknesses (Butler).

 

There's arguments for and against any single one of those three catchers, and if you asked me who should be in the lead, my answer is it comes down to team philosophy. Which since the team has valued offense from the catching position over other factors in the past, leads me to believe Lavarnway will get first crack. Personally I would go for Butler, if only because he's the oldest of the three and we will have opportunities later on to get a better look at the other two.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Dojji

[Palodios]

We have too much young catching waiting in the wings for me to think a veteran starting catcher is coming to Boston. With Ross, we're perfectly set up to put the team's young future starter of choice on the roster with him and let the youngster learn on the job with Ross on hand to take over if there's a problem.

 

The issue is that we have as many as three potential starters of choice, depending on whether you want to try to develop a catcher who's offense first (Lavarnway) one who won't hit that much but performs at a very high defensive level (Vazquez) or a guy who may not stand out along any one vector but is also notably short on glaring weaknesses (Butler).

 

There's arguments for and against any single one of those three catchers, and if you asked me who should be in the lead, my answer is it comes down to team philosophy. Which since the team has valued offense from the catching position over other factors in the past, leads me to believe Lavarnway will get first crafk.

 

The Red Sox have no intention of starting a rookie catcher. How much did we see of Lavs and Butler in September? Little to none. They will find a one-year deal on a catcher because they need time to let the young backstops develop. Honestly, they'll probably regret not giving Salty the QO -- a one-year deal on him seemed like it would probably be worth it.

[Dojji]

If you never start a rookie catcher, you'll never have a homegrown veteran at the dish.

 

I can believe that they want to have a veteran on hand to help cushion them from the risks of running with the rook, but that's what Ross is for, and he's very good at it. I was very impressed with Cody Ross and would be comfortable leaning on him for a stretch if the rookie needs to go down to AAA and try to lose a bad habit.

[Palodios]

If you never start a rookie catcher, you'll never have a homegrown veteran at the dish.

 

I can believe that they want to have a veteran on hand to help cushion them from the risks of running with the rook, but that's what Ross is for, and he's very good at it. I was very impressed with Cody Ross and would be comfortable leaning on him for a stretch if the rookie needs to go down to AAA and try to lose a bad habit.

 

David Ross.

 

Vazquez and Swihart are the guys the Sox want behind the plate, and I think those are the guys that need another year.

[Dojji]

Possibly. I know I wouldn't be entirely comfortable with Lavarnway, because I'm a defense guy. This team would not have traded for VMart if it agreed with me however.