2014 Roster Projections

[sk7326]

Ride out Lester's contract does not make sense at this point. Surely they will exercise his option. He will be at the peak of his value and there is surely a good possibility that they will be offered an absolute pot of gold for him and might simply find that too appealing to pass up. If the pot of gold does not look like it would be that sweet, then the possibility gets greater that they keep him and would at that point bite the bullet and resign him. At that point sign and trade remains a real possibility as well.

 

You certainly cannot be sentimental. We can all sniff about not completing the alleged Myers deal - but a top 5 prospect with an all star ceiling for Lester is nothing to sneeze at. That Myers was not a superstar out of the box does not affect his projection at all. Obviously I am glad we had Lester today, but that doesn't mean it was a crazy deal. If someone blows us away with an offer for Lester you have to look at it. That is part of being a good GM.

 

That said, Lester is one of the surest things in the league. I don't like extending 30+ starters - but his durability and effectiveness have been one of the general constants for this franchise - he had a crappy 2012, granted. But workhorses are hard to find, and he has a true track record of not missing starts - he is not a guy I'd feel bad about giving a 4-5 year extension to.

[Bellhorn04]

The Giants were very fortunate to win the WS the last two times they won it. It will not be so easy going forward based on the competition they now have to face.

 

You're always fortunate to win a WS. Winning 2 is a jackpot. They're probably done for a while now.

[marklmw]

I have had a change of heart considering next years team. Might be because I watched the last 2 innings of WS Game 6 this morning.

 

Sign Nap's ... same deal that he had this year. If he does not sign then make QO or perhaps go after Justin Morneau or Billy Butler.

Sign Drew ... 30M/3 ... I do not trust Middlebrooks. If Middlebrooks does well in Pawtucket we can package him in a trade.

Sign Ellsbury ... 120M / 6. The guy has been a big part of 2 WS Championships ... how many players can say that. Shoulder injuries usually take 2 years to fully recover. Ells will hit 20 HR next year and if he goes to the Yankees he will hit 28 dingers. That will really hurt to see him in pinstripes. Why the Yankees .... because it makes them better and Boston not as good.

Let JBJ develop at Pawtucket and by 2015 JBJ should be major league ready to replace Gomes.

Sign Salty ... 14M / 2. If he does not sign maybe make a QO. This will buy two years for the Sox to find replacement ... maybe from within. This is still a very good increase over his present 4.5M

Sign Tanaka ... 60M / 6. Boston Management has deep pockets and winning is addictive. Owners can handle posting fee.

Deal Dempster and/or Peavy ... pick up a couple prospects and eat part of their contracts.

Part with Hanrahan and Bailey.

Comments welcome.

Edited November 1, 2013 by marklmw

[mvp 78]

When are QO's due?

 

I'd make a QO for Salty, because I think another team will overpay for him.

 

I don't know anything about Tanaka.

[Bellhorn04]

When are QO's due?

 

I'd make a QO for Salty, because I think another team will overpay for him.

 

I don't know anything about Tanaka.

 

I think they're due by Monday.

[SoxSport]

One priority is to figure out a way of getting rid of Dempster. He's a liability--they have young starters waiting in the wings that need opportunities. Drew is another who is blocking young players. You also could say Ells or Vic are blocking Bradley, but they may be able to fit JBJ in an outfield backup role if he's ready. Salty also blocks the younger catchers, and Ross has established himself as the no.1 now based on the World Series. It's clear defense and game calling have to be the priority at catcher--not hitting.

[mvp 78]

I think they're due by Monday.

 

Thanks Bell!

 

"The deadline for a club to make a qualifying offer to any of its qualifying free agents is 5 p.m. ET on the fifth day following the conclusion of the World Series. A player has until 5 p.m. ET on the seventh day after receiving the offer to accept. If he does so, it takes him off the free-agent market and keeps him with his 2013 team."

[marklmw]

I think they're due by Monday.

Due by Monday? this coming Monday? how do the Sox makes any deals before Monday?

[Bellhorn04]

Due by Monday? this coming Monday? how do the Sox makes any deals before Monday?

 

You just have to make the QO by Monday.

[sk7326]

One priority is to figure out a way of getting rid of Dempster. He's a liability--they have young starters waiting in the wings that need opportunities. Drew is another who is blocking young players. You also could say Ells or Vic are blocking Bradley, but they may be able to fit JBJ in an outfield backup role if he's ready. Salty also blocks the younger catchers, and Ross has established himself as the no.1 now based on the World Series. It's clear defense and game calling have to be the priority at catcher--not hitting.

 

Ross is a career backup - that he had a good week does not change that. The Red Sox value him for being able to catch 50 games or so and provide some solid stability, but he is not somebody you want to give 110 starts to, never has been. Salty had a good season - and was a decent defensive catcher (poor at stopping the run game, pretty good at blocking). There is a lot of narrative associated with him that follows from since they dealt for him but does not really square with 2013 reality. If Swihart were a next year guy, that is blocking. Lavarnway has had a lot of chances to take the job and has not been able to - and he is legitimately bad defensively.

 

Dempster I expect will be shopped. But that he is a healthy, durable starter who does miss bats gives him intrinsic value. He's not someone you want near a playoff game, but it is hard for championship teams to get through the marathon without guys like him. He doesn't have a knuckleball, but a lot of what folks like to laud Wakefield for applies here.

 

His contract is also extremely movable now. 1 year, 12 million ... considering what Tim Lincecum makes now (yes, he has more "fan appeal"), Dempster's salary does not actually look crazy at all

[Bellhorn04]

Dempster I expect will be shopped. But that he is a healthy, durable starter who does miss bats gives him intrinsic value. He's not someone you want near a playoff game, but it is hard for championship teams to get through the marathon without guys like him. He doesn't have a knuckleball, but a lot of what folks like to laud Wakefield for applies here.

 

His contract is also extremely movable now. 1 year, 12 million ... considering what Tim Lincecum makes now (yes, he has more "fan appeal"), Dempster's salary does not actually look crazy at all

 

Good points. And trading Dempster would add a huge amount of flexibility for 2014. I think it happens.

[sk7326]

Good points. And trading Dempster would add a huge amount of flexibility for 2014. I think it happens.

 

I think they want to. But I would not deal him as a pure salary dump - the contract is not nearly enough of an albatross to tell a team "just take him please". I'd want some actual value coming back if a team wants us to eat some of his salary.

[Dojji]

Peavy was a 200 inning guy as recently as 2012.

 

Peavy's total innings pitched by year for each of the last 4 years:

 

107

111 2/3

219

144 2/3

 

Looks to me like he's just about on the same plane as buchholz. Kudos for having one really durable year out of the last 4 though.

 

If Lackey regresses at all, we start having to count very heavily on Peavy, buchholz and Doubront to improve on their recent performances.

[User Name]

6 years at 20 per for Ells would be really stupid. Crawford stupid. How can you guarantee he'll hit 20 homers next year? What do you base this on? Other than the 2011 outlier he's never even sniffed 20 homers.

[rjortiz]

I have had a change of heart considering next years team. Might be because I watched the last 2 innings of WS Game 6 this morning.

 

Sign Nap's ... same deal that he had this year. If he does not sign then make QO or perhaps go after Justin Morneau or Billy Butler.

Sign Drew ... 30M/3 ... I do not trust Middlebrooks. If Middlebrooks does well in Pawtucket we can package him in a trade.

Sign Ellsbury ... 120M / 6. The guy has been a big part of 2 WS Championships ... how many players can say that. Shoulder injuries usually take 2 years to fully recover. Ells will hit 20 HR next year and if he goes to the Yankees he will hit 28 dingers. That will really hurt to see him in pinstripes. Why the Yankees .... because it makes them better and Boston not as good.

Let JBJ develop at Pawtucket and by 2015 JBJ should be major league ready to replace Gomes.

Sign Salty ... 14M / 2. If he does not sign maybe make a QO. This will buy two years for the Sox to find replacement ... maybe from within. This is still a very good increase over his present 4.5M

Sign Tanaka ... 60M / 6. Boston Management has deep pockets and winning is addictive. Owners can handle posting fee.

Deal Dempster and/or Peavy ... pick up a couple prospects and eat part of their contracts.

Part with Hanrahan and Bailey.

Comments welcome.

 

Red Sox don't have that kind of money. I think they have about $42 million to spend.

[BoSox92]

The excellence of Papi, bullpen, and players who were in slumps stepping up at the right time led us to a World Series.

 

I'd keep a majority of the pitching staff -- Hanrahan, Dempster are gone. We're getting arms back and developing some in Triple-A this year, the pitching of this team just looks too strong for the next couple of seasons. Buchholz will enjoy the time off and come ready to go for Spring Training. Lester, Peavy, and Lackey are quality arms during the regular season and Doubront I'm expecting big things from next year. He was considered an ace at one time when everyone else was struggling.

 

Fielders is where we're gonna do a majority of the offseason shopping. Ellsbury is too damn important to this team. He's a quality lead off hitter, stole 50+ bases, hit just under .300 and delivered crucial hits and walks throughout the post season. Solid fielder and he's a guy, even at 30, you want to keep. And hopefully with the World Series title he will take a little bit of a pay cut to win another title here. I'd give him a 5 year/$90 million contract.

 

Are we really ready for Jackie Bradley Jr to put Ellsbury numbers or be a lead off guy? I don't think so. I say make him earn a spot in LF or RF (swapping with Victorino to save his legs due to the green monster in left). That outfield has a lot of speed, and if JBJ can get on base in the 9 hole, with Ells and Vic due up next, this team in 2014 will score runs.

 

Stephen Drew is all done. Terrible World Series, he couldn't hit a beach ball. However, made huge plays in the field. But, I think its time to let Middlebrooks and Bogaerts take over at 3B and SS, and man I can't wait.

 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia had a great regular season. But he isn't a game manager we want behind the plate, and at 28 soon to be 29, serving behind Varitek when he first got here and still hasn't picked up how to call a game yet is troubling. We had to bring in David Ross who really contributed when we needed it most. Salty made some costly mistakes in the post season as well. We can platoon with Lavarnway, Butler and Ross for a majority of the season. We have some quality Catchers ready in another year or two, so no point in signing Salty to a long term deal. Christain Vasquez and Blake Swihart.

 

Mike Napoli, due to the shortage of first base names in the market, needs to be re-signed. I'd give him 2 year/$26 million contract or, similar to his deal last December, 3 year/$39 million. He also wants to be here next year.

 

I got Nick Punto returning to us because we will need an infielder who can play the middle infield positions and even at 3B. Also, he's a high character guy, Cherrington seems to love those type of players as do I.

Edited November 1, 2013 by BoSox92

[marklmw]

Red Sox don't have that kind of money. I think they have about $42 million to spend.

 

What are your assumptions?

[mvp 78]

I think Salty can call a decent game, he just has hands of stone and an erratic arm.

[rjortiz]

What are your assumptions?

 

I'd like to see them trade for Carlos Gonzalez, resign Napoli, and sign McCann. However, I can't really make any serious projections until after the QO period.

[User Name]

If you think Ellsbury's going to take a pay cut to stay here, i have a bridge i'd like to sell you.....

[marklmw]

If you think Ellsbury's going to take a pay cut to stay here, i have a bridge i'd like to sell you.....

You mean discount not pay cut ... his pay is going up! I did not realize that he makes his home in Arizona. I guess we will find out ... right. What bridge are you selling?

[rjortiz]

Also, I'd love to see Stanton on this team. Give him 7/140 instead of Ellsbury (assuming we are able to trade and extend him)

[User Name]

You mean discount not pay cut ... his pay is going up! I did not realize that he makes his home in Arizona. I guess we will find out ... right. What bridge are you selling?

 

I say "pay cut" because in my mind, someone paying 20 per for him is already a guarantee. Also, i am selling the Brooklyn bridge.

[marklmw]

I say "pay cut" because in my mind, someone paying 20 per for him is already a guarantee. Also, i am selling the Brooklyn bridge.

 

Let's say for the fun of it that the Sox offer Ellsbury 120 / 6 and Seattle offers him 140 / 7. You say he heads to Seattle?

 

I'll get back to you on the bridge ... I have my heart set on the Golden Gate.

[BoSox92]

If you think Ellsbury's going to take a pay cut to stay here, i have a bridge i'd like to sell you.....

I just think if we want to win another title, he is a vital piece to it. I don't think JBJ will be ready to put up similar numbers to Ells in the next year or two. Plus the luxury of having Victorino, Ells, and Bradley in the outfield, lot of speed and great defense in the outfield. You have to look at windows of players, and Ortiz has probably another season left at maximum. We have to go into 2014 ready to win another title or at least defend it respectively.

 

Boras is looking at $20-25 million a year for Ells. If Ells wants to be here and a part of this special team, like I think he does, I would think he'd take a pay cut of $2-7 million a year roughly.

[marklmw]

I just think if we want to win another title, he is a vital piece to it. I don't think JBJ will be ready to put up similar numbers to Ells in the next year or two. Plus the luxury of having Victorino, Ells, and Bradley in the outfield, lot of speed and great defense in the outfield. You have to look at windows of players, and Ortiz has probably another season left at maximum. We have to go into 2014 ready to win another title or at least defend it respectively.

 

Boras is looking at $20-25 million a year for Ells. If Ells wants to be here and a part of this special team, like I think he does, I would think he'd take a pay cut of $2-7 million a year roughly.

 

If another team gives Ellsbury 25M per for more than 3 years then you can count him gone. I do not see that happening but you cannot blame Boras for trying.

[marklmw]

Also, I'd love to see Stanton on this team. Give him 7/140 instead of Ellsbury (assuming we are able to trade and extend him)

I do not believe that Stanton is a free agent ... paying him 7 /140 is a lot of money and dealing top prospects as well would not be in the Sox best interest.

[User Name]

Let's say for the fun of it that the Sox offer Ellsbury 120 / 6 and Seattle offers him 140 / 7. You say he heads to Seattle?

 

I'll get back to you on the bridge ... I have my heart set on the Golden Gate.

 

Yeah, most likely. That extra year means a lot to both the ballplayer, and the agent.

[marklmw]

Yeah, most likely. That extra year means a lot to both the ballplayer, and the agent.

 

You are probably right ... if Ellsbury's family loved being in Boston and were a big part of the community then things could be different but they are what they are.

[sk7326]

Peavy's total innings pitched by year for each of the last 4 years:

 

107

111 2/3

219

144 2/3

 

Looks to me like he's just about on the same plane as buchholz. Kudos for having one really durable year out of the last 4 though.

 

If Lackey regresses at all, we start having to count very heavily on Peavy, buchholz and Doubront to improve on their recent performances.

 

He had a devastating shoulder injury ... and then hurt his chest this season. He made all his starts in 2012 and then missed a bunch for a non-recurring reason this year. That ain't Buchholz. Peavy has a track record as a hoss (the giant shoulder asterisk noted) ... Buchholz has never gotten that.

 

Team could use some help in the rotation - spending 100 million on a #3 Japanese starter ain't it - but pitcher health is sort of the variable every team faces. And if one is afraid of missing starts - that's what Dempster is for.