2014 Roster Projections

[marklmw]

Bailey is arb elegible. They can just cut him.

 

UN ... no money to pass go .... just cut him? Sweet.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier: Reds claimed Pedro Beato off waivers from the Red Sox.

[Behindenemylines]

Ellsbury only stays if he wants to take less money to stay. It would be nice to see him take less money like Pedroia did to stay, but I don't see it happening. JBJ will replace him in center. Hanrahan and Drew are both gone. Taz and Workman are good to start 2014 as right handed set up men for Koji. An Bogaerts will be the Sox SS in 2014. Because Naps D was better then anyone thought and he has said several times that he wants to stay I think he will be back at 1B. I think the Sox may go in another direction at C so Sallty may be gone.

[Dojji]

I'd go 3/45 for Napoli. It's not like the Drew or Ellsbury situation where we can argue about the quality of the replacement, but everyone knows who the replacement is. We lose Drew, Bogaerts is our shortstop. We lose Ellsbury, the answer is one of Victorino or Bradley, depending on who looks good at any given time. Those positions are not going to be gaping holes unless 2-3 guys all break down at once.

 

First base is much more exposed. We really don't have that guy right now who can come in and replace at a high level. The closest thing we have to an heir if we fail to retain Napoli, is Carp, and I like Carp off the bench a lot better than I like him starting.

[Palodios]

After all the discussion, Jon Heyman received word that the Red Sox will make qualifying offers to Drew, Napoli and Ellsbury. They are still on the fence about Salty.

[Dojji]

That's telling. Pretty much means Salty's gone. With Lavs and Vazquez, AND Butler AND Swihart, hard not to see why. We're overloaded with young catchers who deserve a shot sometime in the next 24 months.

[Palodios]

That's telling. Pretty much means Salty's gone. With Lavs and Vazquez, AND Butler AND Swihart, hard not to see why. We're overloaded with young catchers who deserve a shot sometime in the next 24 months.

 

The problem is they have a bit too much youth. Bogaertz, Bradley, Lavarnway, Workman, and Middlebrooks can't all be holding down spots.

[Dojji]

Don't see why not. It's not like they're not well ballasted by veterans like Pedroia, victorino, papi, Gomes, Lester, Lackey, etc.

 

It's not that I don't understand your concern, more that this was clearly part of the plan all along anyway, so as much as I might have trepidation about some of these young players, might as well go in for a pound as in for a penny.

 

if we really need that veteran presence behind the plate, Ross will be available to go back there for key games like he did in the World Series. This team loves its crusty old veteran backups, and I don't see that changing. Besides, with the level of defense he's shown this year "backup" might not be an accurate way to describe Ross's role. I'd expect him to start at least 30% of the games next year whether or not we keep Salty.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you believe in the kids, you have to ride with them. Maybe that means 2014 isn't a banner year. Maybe that means 2015 will be. Sometimes you have to do whats best for the franchise and that isn't always keep the whole gang together

[User Name]

If not, just ask the Giants. They kept the band together and look at how that turned out.

[Dojji]

With two world series rings in 4 years?

 

If you don't think the players on that roster can turn it around and win again next year, I respectfully disagree. They're not as bad as they looked this year, not by a lot. They're a left fielder, another SP, and a return to form for Lincecum and Cain, away from pushing 90 wins and making the playoffs again in the immediate future. Do NOT count the Giants out.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

Dojji, the Giants WS roster received minor shakeups after 2010, and other improvements during 2012. They kept the roster literally intact from 2012 to 2013 and missed the playoffs. Please think before you post.

[Dojji]

Eh, I stand by my statement. That Giants roster underperformend to a 2012-Sox-like degree, so pretending that their failure this year was because the band was kept together... I have to question that. Maybe to a degree it fed some complacency, but that's really the only argument to be made.

 

They will have to shake things up at least a little this offseason, picking up a left fielder who was worth his salt would be a good start for them, but that core is strong enough that despite its uncharacteristic struggles this year I expect to see SF in the playoffs again in the VERY near future.

[User Name]

They really didn't. They had a roster that had issues with offensive depth and those issues manifested themselves in a very ugly way. They had several holes in the lineup overshadowed by the production of Posey, roided up Melky and the addition of Scutaro plus a career year from Pagan.

 

The signs for offensive regression were there, but they didn't heed them.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a start on the 2014 payroll figures. These are the 12 guaranteed deals, assuming they exercise Lester's option.

 

The luxury tax limit is $189 million.

 

But keep in mind that about $16 million of that is chewed up by pension benefits and the amount being paid to the Dodgers over 3 years.

 

So we're already down to about $53 million of room.

 

John Lackey 16.50

Jake Peavy 14.50

Dustin Pedroia 13.75

Ryan Dempster 13.25

David Ortiz 13.00

Shane Victorino 13.00

Jon Lester 13.00

Clay Buchholz 7.40

Jonny Gomes 5.00

Koji Uehara 4.25

Craig Breslow 3.13

David Ross 3.10

119.88

[Dojji]

I think we can count on Cherington to find a home for Dempster. They're not kicking any of Lester, Lackey, Peavy Doubront, or Buchholz out of the rotation. They're not going to pay 7 figures for a reliever.

[User Name]

Did you take into account Lackey's AAV reduction because of his elbow clause? Also, you have to take into account around 12 million for general player expenditures. They've got around 40 million left pre-arb.

[Dojji]

The rotation does have me nervous, I will say that. Lester aside, we don't exactly have multiple 200+ inning guys. And we're going to have a couple pretty fragile characters in our main 5 in Peavy and buchholz. We're going to need to make sure our pitching depth is up to scratch.

 

Would not mind seeing the franchise puck up a dedicated go-to #6 type like Chad Gaudin to help shore things up. And if by some miracle a trade for a real horse of a #2 like James Shields becomes available, I'd expect to see Cherington move on it. Pushing Lackey down to #3 and counting on Peavy and Buchholz to dominate out of the bottom of the rotation would make me feel a lot more comfortable about the youth we'll have in the lineup if Drew and Ellsbury and Salty move on.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

Did you take into account Lackey's AAV reduction because of his elbow clause? Also, you have to take into account around 12 million for general player expenditures. They've got around 40 million left pre-arb.

 

That $16 million figure I quoted includes the 'general expenditures' - most of that is pension benefits.

 

As I understand it the Lackey clause has no effect on AAV until they actually exercise the option - it's not guaranteed yet.

[User Name]

That $16 million figure I quoted includes the 'general expenditures' - most of that is pension benefits.

 

As I understand it the Lackey clause has no effect on AAV until they actually exercise the option - it's not guaranteed yet.

 

Check and this is a discussion we've had several times but i believe the option vested when he had TJ. I could be wrong on that, and the impact isn't that significant anyways.

[sk7326]

With two world series rings in 4 years?

 

If you don't think the players on that roster can turn it around and win again next year, I respectfully disagree. They're not as bad as they looked this year, not by a lot. They're a left fielder, another SP, and a return to form for Lincecum and Cain, away from pushing 90 wins and making the playoffs again in the immediate future. Do NOT count the Giants out.

 

The Giants were able to exploit a bad divison a couple of times ... but you also look at Tim Lincecum becoming a replacement-level pitcher (and the Giants giving him $18M a year ANYWAY). They were an ordinary offensive team who never fixed it.

 

I am not sure underperforming is a fair term. Scutaro is nothing special ... Posey slipped some from MVP level, but Sandoval was still roughly the same. The problem with holding is that the other teams will be improving, and there are more candidates for non-peak than peak on the roster right now.

[sk7326]

The rotation does have me nervous, I will say that. Lester aside, we don't exactly have multiple 200+ inning guys. And we're going to have a couple pretty fragile characters in our main 5 in Peavy and buchholz. We're going to need to make sure our pitching depth is up to scratch.

 

Would not mind seeing the franchise puck up a dedicated go-to #6 type like Chad Gaudin to help shore things up. And if by some miracle a trade for a real horse of a #2 like James Shields becomes available, I'd expect to see Cherington move on it. Pushing Lackey down to #3 and counting on Peavy and Buchholz to dominate out of the bottom of the rotation would make me feel a lot more comfortable about the youth we'll have in the lineup if Drew and Ellsbury and Salty move on.

 

Peavy was a 200 inning guy as recently as 2012. He has his chest injury this year, but that does not qualify as chronic. He struggled in the playoffs - but he has a lot of track record to suggest he will be solid next season. Buchholz is more fragile - but hopefully he figures out something - there is risk there certainly. Pitching depth will always be a concern, but you also think Allen Webster is in a better position to contribute than he was in year 1, and maybe Anthony Ranaudo is as well or De La Rosa. I think KC exercised their option on Shields so he won't be going anywhere - that said he would have been a dangerous signing for Boston. Dempster could be gone, but I'm not selling him off either, 1 year, $12M for what he provides (durability basically) is a going rate in the marketplace, and the Red Sox should get a real asset for him.

 

I'd be comfortable with a true ace sort ... but who wouldn't. But a rotation of #2/#3 starters can win a World Series. Hell, it just did.

[Bellhorn04]

Check and this is a discussion we've had several times but i believe the option vested when he had TJ. I could be wrong on that, and the impact isn't that significant anyways.

 

The option has certainly vested. But it remains a team option that presumably can't be exercised until after the season. If they could exercise it early they probably would.

 

What makes it unusual of course is that it's an option for a dramatically lower salary. But for AAV calcs it retains the same qualities as other team options. For example, the 2014 team option on Lester was not factored into his AAV for 2013 and prior years.

[Palodios]

If not, just ask the Giants. They kept the band together and look at how that turned out.

 

There is a difference between keeping the band together, and locking the band down for years to come. The beauty of the QO system is that the Red Sox might be able to get away with 1 year deals for Napoli, Drew and Salty because of the potential cost of the 1st round pick for other teams. Worst case scenario, they have a rookie outperforming their veterans, so they trade away half-a-year of a player and let the rookie play.

[Palodios]

The option has certainly vested. But it remains a team option that presumably can't be exercised until after the season. If they could exercise it early they probably would.

 

What makes it unusual of course is that it's an option for a dramatically lower salary. But for AAV calcs it retains the same qualities as other team options. For example, the 2014 team option on Lester was not factored into his AAV for 2013 and prior years.

 

The Lackey option has been a big source of confusion for a while. There was a point last year where it seemed like exercising the 500k option would actually save them money because it removed 3 million off the top, taxed at 40%. Honestly, when we heard that they snuck under the cap last year, I assumed they had used it.

[jacksonianmarch]

What do you think they do with Lester? Do they re-sign him, ride out his contract yr, or deal him?

[mvp 78]

What do you think they do with Lester? Do they re-sign him, ride out his contract yr, or deal him?

 

After this postseason, he's here long term. He works hard and is a team leader. Even if his stuff regresses, he'll be great to have around to help mentor the young guys.

[jung]

Ride out Lester's contract does not make sense at this point. Surely they will exercise his option. He will be at the peak of his value and there is surely a good possibility that they will be offered an absolute pot of gold for him and might simply find that too appealing to pass up. If the pot of gold does not look like it would be that sweet, then the possibility gets greater that they keep him and would at that point bite the bullet and resign him. At that point sign and trade remains a real possibility as well.

[Orange Juiced]

What do you think they do with Lester? Do they re-sign him, ride out his contract yr, or deal him?

 

First pick up his option. That gives them a lot more time to work out an extension. Who knows…maybe in the meanwhile he suffers a major injury or whatever. The option was in his contract for a reason - they should use it.

[marklmw]

The Giants were able to exploit a bad divison a couple of times ... but you also look at Tim Lincecum becoming a replacement-level pitcher (and the Giants giving him $18M a year ANYWAY). They were an ordinary offensive team who never fixed it.

 

I am not sure underperforming is a fair term. Scutaro is nothing special ... Posey slipped some from MVP level, but Sandoval was still roughly the same. The problem with holding is that the other teams will be improving, and there are more candidates for non-peak than peak on the roster right now.

 

The Giants were very fortunate to win the WS the last two times they won it. It will not be so easy going forward based on the competition they now have to face.