Sizing up the ALCS - The Offenses

[Orange Juiced]

The Tigers and Red Sox both possess outstanding offenses. Boston ranked #1 in all of baseball in the most important statistical category of all: runs scored - and Detroit was #2. The gap between them was very large, however. Boston scored 853 runs, while Detroit plated 796 - a difference of 57 runs. The gap between #1 (Bos) and #2 (Det) was bigger than the gap between #2 (Det) and #6 (Cle). That shows you just how good the Red Sox' offense was. Here are some relevant categories and where each team ranked:

 

Runs

- Bos: #1 (853)

- Det: #2 (796)

 

Avg

- Bos: #2 (.277)

- Det: #1 (.283)

 

OBP

- Bos: #1 (.349)

- Det: #2 (.346)

 

SLG

- Bos: #1 (.446)

- Det: #2 (.434)

 

OPS

- Bos: #1 (.795)

- Det: #2 (.780)

 

Total Bases

- Bos: #1 (2521)

- Det: #2 (2491)

 

So the Red Sox and the Tigers are the top two offenses in all of baseball, with the Sox' offense being better in nearly every way. The difference is more pronounced when you factor in baserunning. The Red Sox were 4th in baseball with 123 stolen bases, while Detroit finished dead last with just 35. Moreover, the Sox were successful an MLB-leading 87% of the time, while Detroit was 28th at just 64%.

 

Beyond just stolen bases, the Red Sox took 173 extra bases this year, at a rate of 39%, while Detroit took 166 extra bases, at a rate of 33%. The bottom line is that the Red Sox were far more productive on the basepaths than the Tigers were this year. That's an extra weapon at Boston's disposal.

 

One area that the Red Sox excel in, which might be a big advantage in this series, is the number of pitches they see. As a team, the Red Sox see an average of 4.01 pitches per plate appearance, while Detroit sees 3.76. If we assume 100 as a rough number of pitches to get a starting pitcher out of a game, the Red Sox need just 25 plate appearances to get there, while Detroit needs nearly 27. Those two numbers may not seem like a big difference, but that could be 2/3 of an inning that the Detroit bullpen needs to get each game more than Boston needs out of theirs.

 

Each team's lineups look pretty similar, in that each of them has a roster of quality hitters through and through. If Peralta plays SS, then here's a likely Detroit lineup:

 

CF Jackson - 103 ops+

RF Hunter - 114 ops+

3b Cabrera - 187 ops+

1b Fielder - 120 ops+

DH Martinez - 111 ops+

SS Peralta - 119 ops+

C Avila - 87 ops+

2b Infante - 113 ops+

LF Dirks - 86 ops+

 

So 7 of the 9 starters will have an ops+ of 103 or better. There's quality all up and down this lineup. And though both Dirks and Avila have sub-90 ops+ numbers, each has enough pop in his bat to surprise you with a homer.

 

Meanwhile, here's the likely Boston lineup:

 

CF Ellsbury - 114 ops+

RF Victorino - 119 ops+

2b Pedroia - 116 ops+

DH Ortiz - 160 ops+

LF Nava - 128 ops+

1b Napoli - 129 ops+

C Saltalamacchia - 118 ops+

SS Drew - 111 ops+

3b Middlebrooks - 88 ops+

 

So 8 of the 9 Red Sox' hitters have an ops+ number of 111 or better, and Middlebrooks, the low man in the lineup, managed to hit 17 homers in just 348 at-bats, so he is dangerous.

 

Off the bench, the Tigers do not nearly have the depth the Red Sox have. They only have one reserve with an ops+ over 95, and that's Tuiasosopo, at 106. Meanwhile, the Red Sox can come at you in waves. They can play lefty-righty matchups, and bring Carp (140 ops+), Gomes (111 ops+), Bogaerts (terrific power, drew two huge walks in game 4 of the ALDS), and even Quinten Berry, who doesn't really hit but who is tremendous on the basepaths.

 

One area that the Sox will have a big advantage in is that Detroit has nothing but right-handed starters. As a team, the Sox had a .795 ops total, but against righties, that number jumps up to .818, a full 30 points better than the #2 team (Det).

 

This will be an intriguing series, because we have the two best offenses in baseball, going up against two of the best rotations in baseball, with bullpens that have significant holes should the rotations falter. The offensive advantage, for numerous reasons here, goes to Boston.

 

EDGE: BOSTON

[sk7326]

Offenses were nearly identical in production, though the Tigers are a little more top heavy. The Red Sox ability to start rallies from any spot in the order - as well as them just being healthier, gives them an edge. But I am expecting this to be a grind.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Tigers offense is very potent, yes, but this isn't the same offense that put up those numbers. Miggy's injury has completely ruined him.

 

During September, Miggy slugged .333. The Tigers team slugged .387. The Red Sox slugged .494 in September.

 

The Tigers offense is good, yes, but it's a no brainer that the Sox offense is significantly better with Miggy banged up.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Miggy sees a single pitch that is not on the outer half, I'll be absolutely stunned.

[Palodios]

The bat-s*** insane thing I learned today....

 

Napoli has had a comparable -- if not better -- season than Fielder this year.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The bat-s*** insane thing I learned today....

 

Napoli has had a comparable -- if not better -- season than Fielder this year.

 

Oh it's ridiculous.

 

Napoli WAR: 3.9

Fielder WAR: 2.2

 

Napoli wRC+: 129

Fielder wRC+: 125

 

This year? Napoli has been a better first baseman than Fielder.

[Spitball]

Nice post, OJ. In fact, I have found all your recent "Sizing up the ALCS" posts very interesting. Thanks! Edited October 11, 2013 by Spitball

[seabeachfred]

Nice post, OJ. In fact, I have found all your recent "Sizing up the ALCS" posts very interesting. Thanks!

 

Spitball----about a week ago I made the assertion that the 2013 Playoffs might be the toughest ones to judge as to the effectiveness of calling it, but it seems to have run by the boards. The teams that were supposed to win......the Cardinals, Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox have prevailed so maybe it wasn't so hard to dope after all. Still I saw the 2013 A's addition as much stronger than last year since this season they hit with more power and more consistently. The Pirates seemed to be the kind of team that won a lot of close games throughout the season. As for the Braves, they ran the tables on what was supposed to be a stronger division with Washington and Philly in it, but then those two crapped out so who knows if the Braves were really that good. As for the Rays, anytime you have pitching as they do it's a good idea to take them seriously.

 

Now these next two series? Are the Dodgers that good or mediocre as they were the first three months, will the Red Sox like in games one and two, or will they be more like the guys who struggled in the next two, and what of the Cards? Are their young pitchers ready for the main events, and how long before Cabrera and Fielder bust loose? Hard for me to figure this two series out. OK, I will take the Red Sox and Dodgers to meet in the World Series. God, please don't let me have jinxed the BoSox.

[Spitball]

Fred, like you said, the favorites seem to have advanced so far, but it is always difficult to impossible to call the playoffs. Usually I am a pessimistic Red Sox fan (due to history), but I feel the current team has the personality, but not really the talent, of the 2004 team.

 

I see the Sox winning this series. I honestly believe the modern game has passed Leyland by.

[jacksonianmarch]

How bout you size up the fact that you'll be facing the AL ERA leader, the AL 2013 Cy Young front-runner and the best pitcher in the bigs over the last 5 yrs in the first 3 games? The Tigers pitching is insane

[User Name]

We'll also be facing their "mighty bullpen" and we have a pretty competent pitching staff of our own. All this, of course, with our league-leading offense and a superior defense. How about you size that up?

[jung]

If Cabrera were not such a mess, you would have to at least show him the pitch inside to keep him from just reaching out and covering the entire plate. But his lower body is gone. In fact he appears to be gone from just below the chest down. That being the case, it does not seem to matter if he can reach out and cover the whole plate....he can't generate any power to the opposite field. So I do think Sox pitchers will just take their chances with him. Even if he knows they are feeding him pitches outside, if he gets a single, he becomes a road block on the base paths because he can't run either. I suspect anything he sees inside even off the plate will be a horrid mistake pitch.

[seabeachfred]

How bout you size up the fact that you'll be facing the AL ERA leader, the AL 2013 Cy Young front-runner and the best pitcher in the bigs over the last 5 yrs in the first 3 games? The Tigers pitching is insane

 

No one has said it would be easy Jacko; in fact, most of us here I venture to say believe it is going to be a tough series, but you conveniently forgot to mention how resourceful the Red Sox have been this year. Maybe I should remind you how we handled the Rays this season and your team as well. Keep also in mind that the Tigers bullpen is a little suspect and that we have some competitive and tough pitchers in the clutch on our side. Of course, I know you'd like to see us fall on our collective faces but I wouldn't hold my breath too long on it. I will concede this; it will be a tough ALCS series.

[jung]

No question, the Tigers have great starting pitching. However their best will be left to pitch later in the series and some of the options that Leyland would have had will be taken out of his hands. If Verlander is at the absolute top of his game, he can be like the hockey goalie that just snuffs out the other team's offense. But he has to be at the absolute top of his game to do that. Scherzer can get close to that as well but not quite as dominating. A little deeper in the rotation and not so much.

 

This is still going to boil down to the same things that the Sox used to generate offense in the regular season at least as far as their scoring is concerned. If they can drive up pitch counts they will make it very difficult for opposing starting pitchers to go deep into games, especially given the pressure of post season play. When you get into that Tiger's pen, you have reached the promised land. That is not to say that the Sox will not be able to eek out a run here or there along the way when facing Verlander or Scherzer. Also there is only so much high leverage, high pressure pitching that a guy can take even when he is a great pitcher. We have likely seen Verlander's best game for example.

 

Clearly the Sox should have opportunities to eek out a few runs against Sanchez or Fister. Not saying that the Tigers will just roll over and play dead. Their starters have swing and miss stuff and throw strikes...sort of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object to some extent.

 

As for controlling the Tigers offense, I really hope that Farrell manages these games sort of the way BB coaches football games. Take major weapons off the table and see if the opponent can beat you without them. Now the way Farrell handled Longoria suggests that he does not quite get that. Hope he learned from that lesson.

 

If you can keep Jackson, who is not so far having a great post season, off the base paths, then the Tigers really only have one way to score. They hit for power and blub...blub...blub...trundle their way around the base paths like rampaging rhinos. To be honest, it sorta' looks ridiculous. Is that the Lions offensive line, or the Tigers line up out there? If I were Farrell I would strategize around keeping Jackson at bay and then see if the Tigers can win games with the occasional 1 run HR. I suspect they can't and I honestly hope Farrell thinks about the game that way. Turn these games into games where both teams have to scratch and claw out runs and the Tigers are at an immediate disadvantage to the Sox.

[Orange Juiced]

How bout you size up the fact that you'll be facing the AL ERA leader, the AL 2013 Cy Young front-runner and the best pitcher in the bigs over the last 5 yrs in the first 3 games? The Tigers pitching is insane

 

Um....

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16696-Sizing-up-the-ALCS-starting-pitching

[Bellhorn04]

I think the one guy I'm most worried about is VMart. He has been swinging the bat very well since the ASB. He is a dangerous hitter when he's going good like this.

[marklmw]

I think the one guy I'm most worried about is VMart. He has been swinging the bat very well since the ASB. He is a dangerous hitter when he's going good like this.

 

I feel the same .. he is seeing the ball well and making very good contact.

[Palodios]

I didn't realize this earlier, but one of the most significant factors in this series is the handedness of the Tiger rotation. 4 right handed pitchers.

 

The Red Sox have an .820 OPS against righties and a .750 OPS against lefties. Was anyone expecting Nava to have a line of .322/.411/.484/.894 against RHP this season? . .411, what a monster OBP against righties. http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/bos/seasontype/2/cat/OPS/split/32/boston-red-sox

 

With the exception of Middlebrooks, the entire lineup has crushed right handed pitching with OBPs averaging in the .370's and bottoming out at .340. Not only that, having 4 straight righties lets some of the platoon guys be more comfortable with their roles, and gives Farrell a much easier decision managing each game. It does makes me seriously question the decision to leave Ryan Lavarnway off the playoff roster however.

Edited October 12, 2013 by Palodios

[Palodios]

 

One area that the Sox will have a big advantage in is that Detroit has nothing but right-handed starters. As a team, the Sox had a .795 ops total, but against righties, that number jumps up to .818, a full 30 points better than the #2 team (Det).

 

Oops, Orange Juice definitely mentioned this already. Great posts, btw. Wish you hadn't buried this point

[marklmw]

I didn't realize this earlier, but one of the most significant factors in this series is the handedness of the Tiger rotation. 4 right handed pitchers.

 

The Red Sox have an .820 OPS against righties and a .750 OPS against lefties. Was anyone expecting Nava to have a line of .322/.411/.484/.894 against RHP this season? . .411, what a monster OBP against righties. http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/bos/seasontype/2/cat/OPS/split/32/boston-red-sox

 

With the exception of Middlebrooks, the entire lineup has crushed right handed pitching with OBPs averaging in the .370's and bottoming out at .340. Not only that, having 4 straight righties lets some of the platoon guys be more comfortable with their roles, and gives Farrell a much easier decision managing each game. It does makes me seriously question the decision to leave Ryan Lavarnway off the playoff roster however.

Boston is definitely tough on RHP ... I am feeling good about this series.

[jad]

That was the worst hitting performance I have seen in a major league game in the past half century. Left-handers totally lost, waving at pitches outside the zone, taking obvious strikes, whining about the calls. I'm inclined to think the time off finally hurt (although of course, if they had hit like they did against TB, one could argue the reverse). But last night, no one seemed to have good swings at all. It was as if none of these guys had seen Major L pitching in a while, even though that seems preposterous.

[seabeachfred]

That was the worst hitting performance I have seen in a major league game in the past half century. Left-handers totally lost, waving at pitches outside the zone, taking obvious strikes, whining about the calls. I'm inclined to think the time off finally hurt (although of course, if they had hit like they did against TB, one could argue the reverse). But last night, no one seemed to have good swings at all. It was as if none of these guys had seen Major L pitching in a while, even though that seems preposterous.

 

Jad---we did hit like this against Tampa Bay-----the last two games we played them, but we didn't look as inept as we did last night. We should all hope to just chuck this off as a bad night and move on, but the fact remains this is a four loss series. There isn't that much margin for error because you don't get an ample opportunity to recover unless you do it quickly. I would imagine the whole mental state of the team would change for the better if we could come back tonight and get one for our side. It might turn the series around for us. But I would be less than honest if I didn't say that tonight is a must win for us.

[marklmw]

Jad---we did hit like this against Tampa Bay-----the last two games we played them, but we didn't look as inept as we did last night. We should all hope to just chuck this off as a bad night and move on, but the fact remains this is a four loss series. There isn't that much margin for error because you don't get an ample opportunity to recover unless you do it quickly. I would imagine the whole mental state of the team would change for the better if we could come back tonight and get one for our side. It might turn the series around for us. But I would be less than honest if I didn't say that tonight is a must win for us.

 

I think that Sanchez looks as tough or maybe tougher on left handed batters than right handed

[jung]

That was a horrid hitting performance. This is a team that is supposed to talk to each other in the dugout and figure this out. What were they talking about....how lousy West is as an ump? I can tell what they should have been telling each other... To stop trying to time off speed stuff thrown by an off speed master totally on his game last night. That 95 mph FB was flat as a pancake last night. The Sox should have been sitting for that pitch instead of swinging at so much garbage. They spent most of the night foolish complaining about calls. You players expect me to believe that you knew what was a ball and what was a strike while you are hacking away at stuff you could not hit with a boat oar? Get real.

 

It took till the 6th inning for Nava and Pedey to have two good AB's. They were just walks but at least they had stopped swinging at that garbage and it earned Drew two good FB's to swing at. He did nothing with them but they were meatballs. Unfortunately they had fouled themselves up so much by the 6th inning that they could no longer even do anything with a meatball.

 

Smarten up Sox. These games don't swing big. These games turn based on margins for error that are tiny when you compare them to the regular season.

 

Hopefully they do what they have done in the regular season and put this stinker behind them.

[Behindenemylines]

Game One the Sox swung at too many pitches out of the strike zone. Sanchez walked six guys and a lot of his strikeouts were on pitches out of the zone. If they make him throw strike to get them out they will have more success the next time they see him. The one positive is that they got his pitch count up and him out of the game after 6. The Tigers pen was able to close it out, but I'd rather take my chances with them. Game Two Mad Max was nasty. The Sox did get the pitch count up and him out of the game after 7. This time the Sox where able to do some damage to the Tigers pen. I'm hoping the Sox figure out how the Tiger starters are pitching to them and as the series goes forward they have more success.

[seabeachfred]

Game One the Sox swung at too many pitches out of the strike zone. Sanchez walked six guys and a lot of his strikeouts were on pitches out of the zone. If they make him throw strike to get them out they will have more success the next time they see him. The one positive is that they got his pitch count up and him out of the game after 6. The Tigers pen was able to close it out, but I'd rather take my chances with them. Game Two Mad Max was nasty. The Sox did get the pitch count up and him out of the game after 7. This time the Sox where able to do some damage to the Tigers pen. I'm hoping the Sox figure out how the Tiger starters are pitching to them and as the series goes forward they have more success.

 

Jung was asking what were the players doing in the dugout while their compadres were looking so inept on Saturday night? Well they were not enamored with the umpiring behind the plate but Farrell put it well when he said that West did not lose the game for them. Anyway, they found a way to get back in gear last night and it was a helluva win. Now they had better be all on the same page because they are now in hostile territory and the fans are not going to be with them. My take is that they are aware of what they have to do and what happened last night can be nothing but a big morale booster. We'll see what transpires the next three games in Detroit.

[sk7326]

The team's collective approach has saved them over two games. Offensively it has been horrid for most of the series - but they chased both of Detroit's starting pitchers with virtually nothing. That says something about the discipline of the attack. Yes, Leyland could have stuck with Scherzer but you have to count on any bullpen getting 6 outs with a 4 run lead.

 

Verlander is going to be much harder to wait out ... but the Red Sox will be better, because how can they not be? If Detroit spins start after start like the first two, we'll be eliminated no matter what we do. Has been a fun series.

[Orange Juiced]

I read yesterday that Scherzer admitted after the game that he was "done", so it's hard to get on Leyland for that move. And Verlander can go 130, so it'll be hard to wait him out. That may be why Gomes is playing instead of Nava - maybe a patient approach against Verlander isn't the way to go, and you'd rather have a guy that can just jump on a fastball.

[sk7326]

I read yesterday that Scherzer admitted after the game that he was "done", so it's hard to get on Leyland for that move. And Verlander can go 130, so it'll be hard to wait him out. That may be why Gomes is playing instead of Nava - maybe a patient approach against Verlander isn't the way to go, and you'd rather have a guy that can just jump on a fastball.

 

I read that as Scherzer being a mensch - no reason to throw his manager under the bus either way. Waiting out Verlander didn't happen, but pouncing on one mistake did. Tigers have forced our best - and really, they have gotten it. Has been a helluva first 3 games.

[seabeachfred]

I read that as Scherzer being a mensch - no reason to throw his manager under the bus either way. Waiting out Verlander didn't happen, but pouncing on one mistake did. Tigers have forced our best - and really, they have gotten it. Has been a helluva first 3 games.

 

We all should know as baseball fans that good pitching will stop good hitting most every time. We need no further proof that what we've seen in most of these playoff games that have been going on now for the better part of two weeks. That seems especially true of our set-to with the Tigers. Look at the batting averages of the players in these three games. Its like they're reeking from hunger. I do insist that we have to start hitting a little better than we have. A 1-0 win over Verlander is a big one and a gratifying one, but sooner or later one of our pitchers is going to need a little more support. One gripe I do have is that Farrell, though he was brilliant in handling the bullpen chores today, was remiss as hell in the offensive strategy department. Why Ellsbury was glued to first base when he got on in the fifth (or was it the sixth). He should have been running since one run could make all the difference, which it turned that it did. Then with Drew on second in the eighth and no outs why not sacrifice him to third and set up for maybe a sacrifice fly, wild pitch, squeeze bunt or something that would be easier to score another run from than just keeping Steven on second base. BTW, that is not a rant, just an observation of what I thought John might have done differently in that situation.