Is it safe to say that, for the most part, PEDs are gone from MLB?

[Orange Juiced]

I ask this question, offering the following as evidence. Look at the annual home run leader board.

 

1996

- # of players with 20+ hr: 83

- # of players with 30+ hr: 43

- # of players with 40+ hr: 17

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4962

 

1997

- # of players with 20+ hr: 80

- # of players with 30+ hr: 31

- # of players with 40+ hr: 12

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4640

 

1998

- # of players with 20+ hr: 85

- # of players with 30+ hr: 33

- # of players with 40+ hr: 13

- # of players with 50+ hr: 4

- # of players with 60+ hr: 2 (McGwire had 70)

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5064

 

1999

- # of players with 20+ hr: 103

- # of players with 30+ hr: 46

- # of players with 40+ hr: 13

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2

- # of players with 60+ hr: 2

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5528

 

2000

- # of players with 20+ hr: 102

- # of players with 30+ hr: 47

- # of players with 40+ hr: 16

- # of players with 50+ hr: 1

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5693

 

2001

- # of players with 20+ hr: 90

- # of players with 30+ hr: 41

- # of players with 40+ hr: 12

- # of players with 50+ hr: 4

- # of players with 60+ hr: 2 (Bonds had 73)

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5458

 

2002

- # of players with 20+ hr: 81

- # of players with 30+ hr: 28

- # of players with 40+ hr: 8

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5059

 

2003

- # of players with 20+ hr: 86

- # of players with 30+ hr: 30

- # of players with 40+ hr: 10

- # of players with 50+ hr: 0

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5207

 

2004

- # of players with 20+ hr: 93

- # of players with 30+ hr: 37

- # of players with 40+ hr: 9

- # of players with 50+ hr: 0

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5451

 

2005

- # of players with 20+ hr: 78

- # of players with 30+ hr: 27

- # of players with 40+ hr: 9

- # of players with 50+ hr: 1

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5017

 

2006

- # of players with 20+ hr: 91

- # of players with 30+ hr: 34

- # of players with 40+ hr: 11

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5386

 

2007

- # of players with 20+ hr: 86

- # of players with 30+ hr: 26

- # of players with 40+ hr: 5

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4957

 

2008

- # of players with 20+ hr: 92

- # of players with 30+ hr: 28

- # of players with 40+ hr: 2

- # of players with 50+ hr: 0

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4878

 

2009

- # of players with 20+ hr: 87

- # of players with 30+ hr: 30

- # of players with 40+ hr: 5

- # of players with 50+ hr: 0

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5042

 

2010

- # of players with 20+ hr: 77

- # of players with 30+ hr: 18

- # of players with 40+ hr: 2

- # of players with 50+ hr: 1

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4613

 

2011

- # of players with 20+ hr: 68

- # of players with 30+ hr: 24

- # of players with 40+ hr: 2

- # of players with 50+ hr: 0

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4552

 

2012

- # of players with 20+ hr: 79

- # of players with 30+ hr: 27

- # of players with 40+ hr: 6

- # of players with 50+ hr: 0

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4934

 

2013

- # of players with 20+ hr: 70

- # of players with 30+ hr: 14

- # of players with 40+ hr: 2

- # of players with 50+ hr: 1

- # of players with 60+ hr: 0

- # of HR hit in MLB: 4660

 

The curve downward isn't perfectly smooth, of course, but the trend is obvious. Let me just shrink this down and compare 1999 with 2013:

 

Category: 1999 - 2013

- # of players with 20+ hr: 103 - 70 (decrease of 32.0%)

- # of players with 30+ hr: 46 - 14 (decrease of 69.6%)

- # of players with 40+ hr: 13 - 2 (decrease of 84.6%)

- # of players with 50+ hr: 2 - 1 (decrease of 50.0%)

- # of players with 60+ hr: 2 - 0 (decrease of 100.0%)

- # of HR hit in MLB: 5528 - 4660 (decrease of 15.7%)

 

So it is safe to say that the "steroid era" is officially over? (knowing that some guys will still take PEDs, no matter what)

[mvp 78]

Hell no.

[User Name]

So pitchers don't juice?

[Orange Juiced]

I'm curious as to what you guys' theory is of why home runs are down dramatically then.

[sk7326]

I'm curious as to what you guys' theory is of why home runs are down dramatically then.

 

As has often been the case in history ... EXPANSION!!!! 1997 Rays and DBacks entered the league, which means 30-40 additional pitchers from the muck of AAA ... when Maris hit his 61 it was also an expansion aided season.

[Orange Juiced]

As has often been the case in history ... EXPANSION!!!! 1997 Rays and DBacks entered the league, which means 30-40 additional pitchers from the muck of AAA ... when Maris hit his 61 it was also an expansion aided season.

 

And you think that accounts for these differences:

 

TOTAL MLB HR

2000: 5693

2013: 4660

DIFF: 1033 (34.4 per team)

 

MLB OPS

2000: .782

2013: .714

DIFF: .068

 

Total MLB Runs Scored

2000: 24,971

2013: 20,248

DIFF: 4,723 (157.4 per team)

[sk7326]

And you think that accounts for these differences:

 

TOTAL MLB HR

2000: 5693

2013: 4660

DIFF: 1033 (34.4 per team)

 

MLB OPS

2000: .782

2013: .714

DIFF: .068

 

Total MLB Runs Scored

2000: 24,971

2013: 20,248

DIFF: 4,723 (157.4 per team)

 

Not entirely, but a start ... also look at the ballpark construction trend during that time ... and note that 22 of the 30 opened new stadiums since 1991. Teams in the early part of the trend were shifting from multipurpose monstrosities to Camden Yards sort of bandboxes. To wit, the Orioles going from Memorial Stadium to Camden Yards, the Reds going from Riverfront to Great American, the Pirates going from Three Rivers to PNC, the Astros going from the Astrodome to Minute Maid Park. Only really Seattle went the other way (Kingdome to Safeco) and San Francisco stayed about the same. And let's not even discuss Coors Field. Since the middle of the last decade the new stadiums with the notable exception of Yankee Stadium have involved teams going the other way, (Qualcomm to Petco, Busch Stadium, Metrodome to Target Field, Shea to Citi Field) to much more pitching oriented layouts. That impact cannot be ignored.

 

I am not discounting that PEDs had some impact - but given a sport where such specialized skills are involved, I have no way of guessing exactly how much of an impact it DID have (not what the players or media THINK happened). And there are other external factors.

[Station 13]

So pitchers don't juice?

 

Bartolo Colon is throwing mid 90s at age 42 or whatever his age is.

[User Name]

More pitchers juicing than hitters may actually be the answer to the question.

[Wasatch]

Bartolo Colon is throwing mid 90s at age 42 or whatever his age is.

 

I say he is using, definitely when he was with the skanks.

[jung]

I don't believe PED's have been eliminated as yet. I think players who are not using may now be less inclined to use with players starting to believe that the league may finally get its act together with regard to prevention. So I think it is going the right way.

 

As for the hitting totals, pitching has gone through several phases of prominence and decline in MLB. As has already been pointed out periods of expansion wreck havoc on the quality of pitching, especially starting pitching. Expansion or the lack of same is usually the biggest factor. We have had live baseballs, dead baseballs and differences in mound heights all of which have made contributions one way or the other.

 

Clearly pitching is resurgent again and that usually really means starting pitching. The difference during this phase of the pendulum swinging back is that we now have fully developed the concept of the relief pitcher as far as it has ever been and certainly farther than it historically ever was. So this time, as starting pitching improves, we now have specialists all over the bullpen. Obviously, we have the closer. However we also have the fireman. We have the matchup guys and we have the guys that are tailored for the innings leading up to the closer.

 

Some of us probably remember what it meant to bring in somebody other than a guy who was supposed to take the ball through the ninth inning back in the 60's. If your team had to bring some guy in that clearly was not intended to finish the game or that was not your very best bullpen arm, your head was in your hands and your heart was in your throat. "OH no....not the relief pitcher"!!!!! Now its what inning is it and do we bring in our "X" inning pitcher or do we start to go match up or do we need to put out a fire first. "Oh its the 9th inning......closer".

 

I actually believe that PEDs will not ever be completely eliminated in baseball. I believe that the PA, owners and players will eventually come to terms with PED usage....mainly as a means to get injured players back in the game sooner rather than later. I suspect that eventually you will see baseball crack down hard on use purely for the sake of enhancing performance while at the same time regulating use for purposes of reducing time on the shelf due to injury. I think that will be the trade off...legal usage for recovery from injury for meaningful testing and truly ugly fines and suspensions for performance related usage.

[sk7326]

Orgs have gotten smarter about pitching for sure - in terms of prioritizing development over free agency. Also, I think that when a team sees a pitcher who is not slated to be a #3 or better sort of starter, the first option before moving him to #4 starters-ville is to see if he can be a dynamite reliever - like a guy with a dynamite first pitch but no big league level 3rd pitch, a guy with an insane platoon split, or a guy whose delivery screams "catastrophic injury ahead, just see what we can get out of him in the meantime".

 

The baseball world came to terms with PEDs in the days of yore where our old heroes were popping amphetamines like they were tic-tacs. You look at the NFL - which was allegedly ahead of everybody, and guys are still doing it all the time. Bill Romanowski was a human science experiment for chrissakes. It's like any sort of "crimefighting" apparatus - rules will change, people will try to work around them. There is way too much at stake not to.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's safe to say that the situation has improved considerably. That's as far as I would go.

[mvp 78]

We just really have no idea who is on what. There will always be some sort of medical enhancement in the game. There's too much money in the game not to cheat. Think Cabrera feels bad about the millions he made after getting caught?

[Bellhorn04]

We just really have no idea who is on what. There will always be some sort of medical enhancement in the game. There's too much money in the game not to cheat. Think Cabrera feels bad about the millions he made after getting caught?

 

Yeah, Cabrera is a classic, and very recent example of a guy who turned PED's into much better numbers and a nice payday - in spite of getting caught!

[mvp 78]

If the only downside to getting caught is not being allowed into the HOF, then who cares? Cruz, Colon, Cabrera, Braun and the rest don't.

[Dojji]

Hell no.

 

I scrolled down to say exactly this, only to happily note that it was the first response. Good work MVP.

 

I think that the difference is simply due to the improvement in pitching technique. I don't think we have more or fewer bandbox stadiums or caverns than we did in days gone by, I think the pitchers are ahead of the hitters at the moment and advances in hitting technique are eventually going to come along and catch them back up. Maybe at about the point when managers stop bunting in all but the most bunt-obvious situations.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Dojji

[jung]

Well hitting came around when it got help. Hitting rarely came around on its own. Periods of expansion were always huge boosts for the hitters cause there would just not be enough pitchers to go around. Lowering the mound really helped hitters....the live baseball helped, not as much as lowering the mound or periods of expansion. It did help though. The DH is a huge help to hitters in the AL. They all see better pitches to hit....AL pitchers cannot pitch to the lineup nearly as much. Heck NL pitchers are planning for the pitcher as soon as they see the guys batting 6th and 7th in the opposing lineup.