Where to Spend the Money Next Year

[Orange Juiced]

We're having a blast with the Sox this season, but lots of talk about the future, so I figured I would paint the picture for where the Sox are at.

 

Start here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

Here are the commitments for the Sox for 2014:

 

Rotation:

SP Lackey - 15.25 m

SP Peavy - 14.5 m

SP Dempster - 13.25 m

SP Buchholz - 7.7 m

SP Doubront - 0.515 m

SP Lester - 0.25 m buyout, option for 13 m

 

Bullpen:

RP Thornton - 1 m buyout, 6 m option

RP Breslow - 3.8 m

RP Bailey - arbitration (4.1 m in 2013)

RP Bard - arbitration (1.86 m in 2013)

RP Morales - arbitration (1.49 m in 2013)

RP Tazawa - arbitration (0.815 m in 2013)

RP Miller - arbitration (1.48 m in 2013)

RP Villarreal - 0.5 m

RP Uehara - arbitration (4.25 m in 2013)

RP Workman - 0.5 m

RP Hanrahan - free agent

 

Position Players:

C Saltalamacchia - free agent

C Ross - 3.1 m

C Lavarnway - 0.5 m

1b Napoli - free agent

2b Pedroia - 12.5 m

3b Middlebrooks - 0.5 m

SS Drew - free agent

LF Gomes - 5 m

CF Ellsbury - free agent

RF Victorino - 13 m

IF Bogaerts - 0.5 m

IF Holt - 0.5 m

OF Nava - 0.505 m

OF Kalish - 0.5 m

OF Carp - 0.5 m

 

According to b-ref, their commitments - if all the options are exercised, and estimating what people will make through arbitration - is about $149.2 million. It doesn't factor in the guys who are scheduled to be free agents (Hanrahan, Drew, Salty, Napoli, Ellsbury).

 

Now, the luxury tax threshold in 2014 is $189 million. That's the number the Sox have as their "cap". Obviously, as businessmen, Henry/Werner would like to stay as low as possible, but we know they're going to spend the money. Let's say that $185 million is their hard cap. That means that they have about $39.8 million available to spend, which would take them from $149.2 million up to $185 million.

 

Where should they spend the money? Here is that list again, but with additions and subtractions as I would recommend.

 

Rotation:

SP Lackey - 15.25 m

SP Peavy - 14.5 m

SP Dempster - 13.25 m - Trade him to the NL for a good (not great) prospect. Might have to eat $7 million of this. Net: frees up 6.25 m

SP Buchholz - 7.7 m

SP Doubront - 0.515 m

SP Lester - 0.25 m buyout, option for 13 m - Exercise the option for 13 m. Net: 0, because his option was already assumed to be exercised.

 

Bullpen:

RP Thornton - 1 m buyout, 6 m option - Decline the option for 6 m. I like him but think we can do without him. Net: frees up 5 m, because that 6 m was factored into the 149.2 m total.

RP Breslow - 3.8 m

RP Bailey - arbitration (4.1 m in 2013) - Do not offer arbitration. Net: frees up 4.1 m since that was factored into their 149.2 m total.

RP Bard - arbitration (1.86 m in 2013) - Do not offer arbitration. Net: frees up 1.86 m since that was factored into their 149.2 m total.

RP Morales - arbitration (1.49 m in 2013)

RP Tazawa - arbitration (0.815 m in 2013)

RP Miller - arbitration (1.48 m in 2013)

RP Villarreal - 0.5 m

RP Uehara - arbitration (4.25 m in 2013)

RP Workman - 0.5 m

RP Hanrahan - free agent - Do not re-sign him. Net: 0.

 

*So far, we've reduced the rotation down to: Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubront. With Webster, Barnes, DeLaRosa, Workman, and Ranaudo waiting in the wings. I think that's a pretty solid group.

*So far, we've made the bullpen this: Breslow, Miller, Morales, Tazawa, and Uehara. I think Workman is best suited to a starting role, and probably will be best served to stay in AAA next year as a SP until they need him for late in the year as a reliever. So this means they need to add another relief pitcher. Preferably a RH power arm. I'll come back to this.

*And so far, with the players I've traded away, let go as free agents, or declined arbitration, we've saved $17.21 million. Add that to the $39.8 million we had available to start with, and now we have just a tick over $57 million available to do some real work.

 

Position Players:

C Saltalamacchia - free agent - I'd try to either re-sign Salty (he's grown on me, to be honest) or McCann. McCann is just a terrific all-around catcher - solid defensively (always has a positive dWAR), and a tremendous hitter. Consistently good, has a career ops+ of 118 (outstanding for a C). Averages about 20-25 hr and 80-85 rbi a season. Would be a great fit in Boston. But also pricey. Currently getting paid $12 million, and I can see his price being around $15 million. He's 29 years old, so he probably still has several very good years left in him. I'd offer him a 4/60 deal and see if that'll get it done. If not, I'd re-sign Salty, and I think it'll likely take about a 4 or 5 year deal, averaging around $8-10 million. His value really has gone up this season. Given that they love Salty, I think that's probably what'll happen. So even though I'd prefer McCann, I think they'll end up with Salty. Let's say, just for fun, I get my way and we get McCann for $15 m in 2014.

C Ross - 3.1 m

C Lavarnway - 0.5 m

1b Napoli - free agent - Here's where I'd definitely go after the Cuban 1b, Abreu. He's a monster. 26 year old with tremendous power. Will it translate to the majors? Who knows, but I think the odds are pretty good, given the success of recent Cubans in MLB. He's a guy with 35-40 homer power, and he's still young enough to have his best years ahead of him. What will it cost? Well, here are three recent Cubans: Puig (7/42 with a 2014 cost of 3.7); Cespedes (4/36 with a 2014 cost of 10.5); Gonzalez (6/60, unsure of his 2014 cost). So I think Abreu, who may be more MLB-ready than any of these guys, will probably get a 6/72 kind of deal. I'd do that in a heartbeat, b/c $12 million isn't enough to bury you if you're wrong, and if you guess right on him, he'll be an absolute steal as he matures. Heck, they were going to sign Napoli, with a balky hip at age 31, to a 3/39 deal. I'd do Abreu for 6/72, and let's say that's enough to get it done. So add Abreu in for a cost of $12 m in 2014.

2b Pedroia - 12.5 m

3b Middlebrooks - 0.5 m

SS Drew - free agent - Say goodbye to Drew. I think he's been solid for the Sox, but I am ready to roll with Bogaerts at SS, and a veteran backup behind him (Holt? who knows).

LF Gomes - 5 m

CF Ellsbury - free agent - I don't think the Sox will want to pay what he's going to get most likely, but because, up to this point in my figuring, I've spent $27 million out of the $57 million the Sox have available, and I've solved the problem at C and 1b, I think the Sox have enough dough to handle Ellsbury. And I'd offer him first a 3-year deal for $75 million. Go short-term with him but at a much higher AAV than what other teams will likely offer. I think those would be the best 3 years of the rest of his career, and if you're wrong, it's a short-term deal. And that allows JBJ time to mature so that when Ellsbury leaves after the 2016 season, JBJ steps in right at the start of the prime of his career to patrol CF. It's a perfect fit. I wonder if Jacoby would take such an offer. If not (and let's say he says no to that), in this scenario I bite the bullet and sign him to 6/120 (ugh, I hate to do that!!!). That adds $20 million to my 2014 cost, which means that I still have $10 million left over.

RF Victorino - 13 m

IF Bogaerts - 0.5 m

IF Holt - 0.5 m

OF Nava - 0.505 m

OF Kalish - 0.5 m

OF Carp - 0.5 m

 

Now, I need to get back to my last arm in the bullpen. A guy I kick the tires on is Ryan Madson. He has been hurt all season, but before his injury he was a terrific pitcher. If he's healthy, I try to get him. Hard, sinking action on his fastball, over 9 k/9 the past 3 seasons, has experience as a closer. He's making $3.25 million this year and, coming off an injury, I don't think he'd cost more than that for 2014. Jesse Crain (excellent pitcher, making $4.5 million this year) is also a free agent. He'd be pricier, but he's outstanding. I think you can get a veteran power arm in the bullpen for around $5 million or less. And they can always just say, heck with it, we'll keep Workman in the bullpen, or make DeLaRosa a permanent reliever. They still have Beato and Alex Wilson available as well. But let's say they spend $5 million on a veteran power RHP.

 

So when all is said and done, I still have over $5 million to spend, and I have the following roster:

 

SP - Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront

RP - Morales, Breslow, Miller, Tazawa, Uehara, Madson/Crain

 

C - McCann

1b - Abreu

2b - Pedroia

3b - Middlebrooks

SS - Bogaerts

LF - JBJ

CF - Ellsbury

RF - Victorino

DH - Ortiz

C - Ross, Lavarnway (minors probably)

IF - Holt, Carp (1b/OF)

OF - Gomes, Nava

 

Primary Lineup:

CF Ellsbury

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Abreu

C McCann

3b Middlebrooks

LF Bradley/Gomes

SS Bogaerts

 

I mean, that's a HELL of a potential lineup, with a great mix of kids and veterans, speed and power, and lefties and righties. The bench has quality hitters from either side. And the minors still have lots of possibilities waiting in the wings.

 

Meanwhile, the rotation is solid, 1-5. Three righties, two lefties, lots of power arms. And again, a handful of quality kids on the cusp of being MLB contributors. And the bullpen has depth and versatility as well.

 

And all this can be done while keeping the Sox under the luxury tax threshold.

[Orange Juiced]

Now, this sets you up in 2015 as follows. Lester and Peavy would be free agents, so two big holes would need to be filled in the rotation. But fortunately, Lackey's salary in 2015 drops down to just 500 k (!), and Doubront is arbitration eligible for 2015, so he'd likely get a significant bump up to, say, $6 million. And Buchholz' salary jumps to $12 million. So you're losing Lester's $13 million and Peavy's $14.5 million, and Lackey drops from $15.25 million down to $0.5 million. So the net reductions come to $42.25 million, while the net increases come to around $11 million. Thus you need to replace two starting spots and you have about $31 million with which to work.

 

Among the position guys, Ortiz comes off the books, and I just don't know if they'd sign him for much at that point in his career. I'd say adieu after 2014 (he'll be 39 in the 2015 season), so there's a DH spot that would need to be filled. But I'm not too worried about that. And since his 2014 salary would be $11 million, that's an additional $11 million to play with to fill that role. The rest of the spots would be in very good shape, however, so there wouldn't be many holes to fill besides 2 SP spots and a DH. Maybe by then Lavarnway will be the masher we all hope he can be.

 

Anyway, all that can be done without burying the team for the future, giving away prospects, or hamstringing them financially. And it gives the Sox an incredible roster for 2014.

[Bellhorn04]

Good stuff OJ. The only thing I disagree with is Ellsbury. He's gone baby gone. Bradley in CF, Vic in RF, Gomes/Nava in LF. Now you have lots more money to play with! An extension for one of Peavy or Lester maybe?

[Orange Juiced]

Good stuff OJ. The only thing I disagree with is Ellsbury. He's gone baby gone. Bradley in CF, Vic in RF, Gomes/Nava in LF. Now you have lots more money to play with! An extension for one of Peavy or Lester maybe?

 

Thanks. I think Ellsbury is likely gone, but there really aren't that many places to spend it for next year. I already suggested upgrades at C and 1b, but if you don't sign Ellsbury, there's a TON of money left over....but for what? The list of FA pitchers is not inspiring. There aren't many premier position players that are FA after Ellsbury. Well, there's Cano, but the Sox already have Pedroia. I can't imagine Cano signs here for $30 million to play 3b...though he'd be amazing here, no doubt, and it would have the double effect of stinging the Yankees big-time.

 

So where else would you spend the $$ if not on Ellsbury? Extending Lester/Peavy would go on the 2015 figure, not the 2014 one. I mean, they don't *HAVE* to spend the $$ I guess, but man, the team I suggested in the OP would be incredible.

[sk7326]

No McCann - he is going to want years, and his body will not be able to sustain it, and I don't know whether he justifies being a DH in years 4 and 5. Drew going makes sense - convenient marriage, everyone has benefitted. Boegarts filling in is fine. At the same time, a Drew-Middlebrooks-Bogaerts SS-1B-3B rotation is not unreasonable either. Ellsbury will be hard to lose, but I get it - and Bradley will be a solid replacement.

 

They could use another starter - who couldn't? I'd expect they'll try to extend Lester to something fair (5/75).

[Orange Juiced]

No McCann - he is going to want years, and his body will not be able to sustain it, and I don't know whether he justifies being a DH in years 4 and 5. Drew going makes sense - convenient marriage, everyone has benefitted. Boegarts filling in is fine. At the same time, a Drew-Middlebrooks-Bogaerts SS-1B-3B rotation is not unreasonable either. Ellsbury will be hard to lose, but I get it - and Bradley will be a solid replacement.

 

They could use another starter - who couldn't? I'd expect they'll try to extend Lester to something fair (5/75).

 

McCann would be a terrific DH. He doesn't play as much at C as he would at DH. If you project his career numbers (which have been remarkably consistent, btw, so it seems reasonable to do this) over, say, 154 games instead of just the 135 he typically plays, his average numbers come to:

 

.279/.351/.476/.827, 118 ops+, 65 r, 25 hr, 92 rbi

 

I'd happily take those numbers from a DH for a couple of seasons, and he could also provide you with bonus depth at C.

 

Your idea of extending Lester is fine for down the road, but there's still a ton of freed up money in 2014. Especially if we go without McCann at $15 m and instead go with Salty at about $10 m, and really if we go without Ellsbury.

[User Name]

McCann would be an excellent addition for five years. 3 at C, 2 as a part time C/DH.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I really like the plan. I'm extremely torn on Ellsbury.

 

I would love to resign him, but at what cost?

 

Looking at the farm, it's as deep as it's been in a long time, particularly with starting pitching (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, and De La Rosa all at AAA or MLB level right now, plus Owens who looks to be a potential ace if he can refine is curveball), and we have 6 starters in the rotation right now. I'm still of the mindset that De La Rosa will gain a lot more control next year, as this is his first year back from TJS. That's a ton of pitching depth, which is the most expensive commodity. Perhaps that frees up a good bit of money to sign Ellsbury.

 

The biggest piece missing from this team is 1B, where they have zero depth. I would not let Abreu get away from me. No chance. We've seen how good Puig is and Cespedes had a monster year last year.

 

A little tidbit I found on Abreu:

 

Jose Abreu earned his brief stateside fame when Davenport ran the first widely available attempt to translate Cuban numbers to MLB equivalents. His system suggested Cespedes was a .291/.357/.542 hitter at his very best, and a .258/.319/.471 MLB hitter in his Cuban career. For Abreu's age 24 season, the translator spit out .358/.468/.754. The year before that? .316/.435/.634.

 

Cespedes said he's as good as Miguel Cabrera.

 

He's the #1 target this offseason, and I can't imagine the Red Sox, with the resources they have both in freed up money and a lack of depth in the minor league system, don't come down with him.

[User Name]

SFF, you always think the Red Sox are going to come down with every good player available.

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, you always think the Red Sox are going to come down with every good player available.

 

of course I do. But THIS one is for real!

 

Seriously though, it makes a ton of sense for the Sox to be all over this guy.

 

I also thought it made a ton of sense for the Sox to go after Haren last offseason.

[User Name]

I was on that bandwagon too.

[Orange Juiced]

I really like the plan. I'm extremely torn on Ellsbury.

 

I would love to resign him, but at what cost?

 

Looking at the farm, it's as deep as it's been in a long time, particularly with starting pitching (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, and De La Rosa all at AAA or MLB level right now, plus Owens who looks to be a potential ace if he can refine is curveball), and we have 6 starters in the rotation right now. I'm still of the mindset that De La Rosa will gain a lot more control next year, as this is his first year back from TJS. That's a ton of pitching depth, which is the most expensive commodity. Perhaps that frees up a good bit of money to sign Ellsbury.

 

The biggest piece missing from this team is 1B, where they have zero depth. I would not let Abreu get away from me. No chance. We've seen how good Puig is and Cespedes had a monster year last year.

 

A little tidbit I found on Abreu:

 

Jose Abreu earned his brief stateside fame when Davenport ran the first widely available attempt to translate Cuban numbers to MLB equivalents. His system suggested Cespedes was a .291/.357/.542 hitter at his very best, and a .258/.319/.471 MLB hitter in his Cuban career. For Abreu's age 24 season, the translator spit out .358/.468/.754. The year before that? .316/.435/.634.

 

Cespedes said he's as good as Miguel Cabrera.

 

He's the #1 target this offseason, and I can't imagine the Red Sox, with the resources they have both in freed up money and a lack of depth in the minor league system, don't come down with him.

 

I agree wholeheartedly. I was encourage that they were as in on Gonzalez as they were; it gives me hope for Abreu.

 

But in my plan they can afford McCann, Abreu, AND Ellsbury. It doesn't have to be an either/or scenario for any of them.

 

PS - I forgot to mention Owens in my list of SP that might be on the cusp of contributing at the major league level.

[Thunder]

Good stuff OJ. The only thing I disagree with is Ellsbury. He's gone baby gone. Bradley in CF, Vic in RF, Gomes/Nava in LF. Now you have lots more money to play with! An extension for one of Peavy or Lester maybe?

 

Why do you think he's gone? The only thing he has lacked this year is the power, which he only had once in the best. If anyone in this OF was the odd man out, it would be Gomes/Nava/Carp. Now I love Gomes, Nava has been great all year, and after last night, I want to see Carp stay. Tough call, but I think Ells definitely stays.

[mvp 78]

Why do you think he's gone? The only thing he has lacked this year is the power, which he only had once in the best. If anyone in this OF was the odd man out, it would be Gomes/Nava/Carp. Now I love Gomes, Nava has been great all year, and after last night, I want to see Carp stay. Tough call, but I think Ells definitely stays.

 

Too much money. Not because he is a bad player.

[Dojji]

I keep Stephen Drew. He's good enough at a rare enough position to find a good player that I don't dream of moving him on just because we have a prospect. Prospects have busted out before. If we can afford the cost in dollars, I absolutely hold onto Drew. We're not the Royals where we might have to boot an effective veteran just because a kid looks good.

 

As for the offseason:

 

I walk away from Napoli, bring in Abreu, with the idea of working Abreu and Carp at first and seeing what that looks like with the idea that if I do need to do something later, this franchise doesn't have a ton of other holes so it should be easy to prioritize.

 

Resign Drew for 4 years 13M AAV. There will be plenty of room for Bogaerts even with Drew.

 

Move Dempster. Plan A rotation: Buchholz, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront. Workman, de la Rosa Ranaudo, Wright and Webster is fine depth in the wings. We don't really need Dempster. Give him a loving home out in the AL West.

 

The bullpen is fine. Bring in some mix and match types because a little depth can't hurt anyone but I can't imagine us failing to find 7 good pitchers with the mix of talent we already have.

 

I make an effort to bring in Jamey Carroll in a utility role. He's a solid professional utility guy who'd be easy to push aside when Bogaerts is ready to justle for playing time, and if that doesn't happen for some reason, I'd be cool with keeping him around. He's the type that has something to teach the youngsters.

 

Ellsbury I keep if I can, if there's a reasonable way to get that done I shift Nava before I lose out on Ellsbury. If need me Bradley can play left field and we can just suffer through the fastest outfield in the major leagues.

Edited August 29, 2013 by Dojji

[Dojji]

of course I do. But THIS one is for real!

 

Seriously though, it makes a ton of sense for the Sox to be all over this guy.

 

I also thought it made a ton of sense for the Sox to go after Haren last offseason.

 

Yep. More to the point, NYY is going to have issues going after Abreu. They don't really believe in full time DH's and have a number of aging hitters, and first place is occupied for the next several years.

 

Honestly the team that worries me when it comes to Abreu, is Oakland. This is where Beane likes to plant his flag, and I think the A's are going to be big players for Abreu.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yep. More to the point, NYY is going to have issues going after Abreu. They don't really believe in full time DH's and have a number of aging hitters, and first place is occupied for the next several years.

 

Honestly the team that worries me when it comes to Abreu, is Oakland. This is where Beane likes to plant his flag, and I think the A's are going to be big players for Abreu.

 

I don't know if the A's would put in the dollars for this guy honestly, especially if he is going to be getting 6/72 or so. That's a lot of money for a lot of years for a team that doesn't have a ton of financial capacity to absorb a bad decision or a decision that backfires.

 

I could see the Nats as a team that would be in on him though. But really, all the big market teams who could compete with the Sox in their offers already have first basemen. Dodgers have AGon, Yanks have Tex, Nats have LaRoche but he's on a short term deal so I could see then in on him, Orioles could be a dark horse. Cubs have Rizzo, Angels have Pujols and Trumbo.

 

Just not sure where else he could go. Mariners and Marlins could both be in the mix.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox are going to have an interesting dilemma come this offseason. They will have holes in spots that have solid prospects lined up to take over. But if you are going to go for the gusto, having 3 spots manned by a rookie typically spells doom for your playoff chances in year 1.

 

FA's after 2013 include (and I think Lester's option is picked up)

1B- Mike Napoli (2.2 WAR)

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (5.1WAR)

C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.6 WAR)

SS- Stephen Drew (2.3 WAR)

CL- Joel Hanrahan

LHP- Matt Thornton ($6 mil option for 2014)

 

For the position players, that is 12.2 WAR that needs to be replaced. And the likelihood is, all of the above players hit the market and find lucrative deals elsewhere.

 

So let's say they go the young route. Cecchini is playing well in AA, he could move up to the bigs at 3b. That would move Middlebrooks over to 1b and Bogaerts would take over at SS. You have JBJ taking over in CF and you'd have to scour the market for a C, or decide it is Lavarnway's time. While that decision likely would lead to further long term success, it would not yield a playoff caliber roster come 2014.

[Orange Juiced]

The sox are going to have an interesting dilemma come this offseason. They will have holes in spots that have solid prospects lined up to take over. But if you are going to go for the gusto, having 3 spots manned by a rookie typically spells doom for your playoff chances in year 1.

 

FA's after 2013 include (and I think Lester's option is picked up)

1B- Mike Napoli (2.2 WAR)

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (5.1WAR)

C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.6 WAR)

SS- Stephen Drew (2.3 WAR)

CL- Joel Hanrahan

LHP- Matt Thornton ($6 mil option for 2014)

 

For the position players, that is 12.2 WAR that needs to be replaced. And the likelihood is, all of the above players hit the market and find lucrative deals elsewhere.

 

So let's say they go the young route. Cecchini is playing well in AA, he could move up to the bigs at 3b. That would move Middlebrooks over to 1b and Bogaerts would take over at SS. You have JBJ taking over in CF and you'd have to scour the market for a C, or decide it is Lavarnway's time. While that decision likely would lead to further long term success, it would not yield a playoff caliber roster come 2014.

 

Middlebrooks would lose a lot of his value playing at 1b. At 3b, he's a plus defender, and that gets lost at 1b. I think they go very hard after Abreu, who is a potential 40 hr stick at 1b. That would fill a lot of the offensive hole they'd be losing. Maybe year 1 he's a 20-25 hr guy, which still isn't bad.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The sox are going to have an interesting dilemma come this offseason. They will have holes in spots that have solid prospects lined up to take over. But if you are going to go for the gusto, having 3 spots manned by a rookie typically spells doom for your playoff chances in year 1.

 

FA's after 2013 include (and I think Lester's option is picked up)

1B- Mike Napoli (2.2 WAR)

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (5.1WAR)

C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.6 WAR)

SS- Stephen Drew (2.3 WAR)

CL- Joel Hanrahan

LHP- Matt Thornton ($6 mil option for 2014)

 

For the position players, that is 12.2 WAR that needs to be replaced. And the likelihood is, all of the above players hit the market and find lucrative deals elsewhere.

 

So let's say they go the young route. Cecchini is playing well in AA, he could move up to the bigs at 3b. That would move Middlebrooks over to 1b and Bogaerts would take over at SS. You have JBJ taking over in CF and you'd have to scour the market for a C, or decide it is Lavarnway's time. While that decision likely would lead to further long term success, it would not yield a playoff caliber roster come 2014.

 

Salty will likely get resigned, which means Lavarnway will likely get dealt this offseason.

 

Basically the assumption that you've made here is that the Sox are going to go into 2014 with about 120mm in payroll.

 

The Sox, defensively, will probably be Salty - Abreu - Pedroia - Bogaerts - Middlebrooks - Nava/Gomes - JBJ - Victorino - Ortiz.

 

Rotation of Buchholz Lester Peavy Lackey Doubront

 

Bullpen of Uehara Tazawa Miller Breslow Workman Bailey Britton

 

Lineup of Bradley Victorino Pedroia Ortiz Abreu Nava Bogaerts Salty Middlebrooks

 

To say that the above team is not a post season caliber team is silly. That's a 92+ win team, particularly considering the SP depth.

[jacksonianmarch]

If ARod's suspension holds up, I expect the Yankees to be in on Abreu hard. Him and Tanaka. If ARod gets it reduced below a full season, then theyre probably out

[SoxFanForsyth]

If ARod's suspension holds up, I expect the Yankees to be in on Abreu hard. Him and Tanaka. If ARod gets it reduced below a full season, then theyre probably out

 

Where are they going to put Abreu?? DH?

 

I think the Yankees will be a bit too preoccupied with Cano, and the need isn't nearly strong enough to justify outbidding teams that actually need him.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

The sox are going to have an interesting dilemma come this offseason. They will have holes in spots that have solid prospects lined up to take over. But if you are going to go for the gusto, having 3 spots manned by a rookie typically spells doom for your playoff chances in year 1.

 

FA's after 2013 include (and I think Lester's option is picked up)

1B- Mike Napoli (2.2 WAR)

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (5.1WAR)

C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.6 WAR)

SS- Stephen Drew (2.3 WAR)

CL- Joel Hanrahan

LHP- Matt Thornton ($6 mil option for 2014)

 

For the position players, that is 12.2 WAR that needs to be replaced. And the likelihood is, all of the above players hit the market and find lucrative deals elsewhere.

 

So let's say they go the young route. Cecchini is playing well in AA, he could move up to the bigs at 3b. That would move Middlebrooks over to 1b and Bogaerts would take over at SS. You have JBJ taking over in CF and you'd have to scour the market for a C, or decide it is Lavarnway's time. While that decision likely would lead to further long term success, it would not yield a playoff caliber roster come 2014.

 

Well you predicted the Sox to fail this year too, with the Yankees coming out on top. How is that working out for you? Also in 2007(WS Champs bitch) and we had rookies Buchholz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury. Having rookies doesn't translate into failure all the time.

[Behindenemylines]

For the most part what OJ said I agree with. I would pass on McCann though. Let me start by saying that I think he is a really good catcher/hitter. This is why I think the Sox should stick with Salty. McCann as a FA is going to cost a lot more then Salty. Are you going want to invest big $$$$$ on a soon to be 30 year old catcher. Offensively Salty has improved this year, and is even hit a little from the right side. Everyone saw how the transition from the Captain to Salty hurt the pitching. Now that the pitchers are getting more comfortable throwing to Salty are we going to want to bring in another new catcher that has to learn the whole pitching staff. I think the Sox stick with Salty until Swihart or Vazquez is ready for the job. I find it hard to invest big $$$$$ in a catcher because of the injury factor being so great.

I kind of like the idea of 3 year 75 million offer to Ellsbury. You are over paying, but for probably the three best years Ellsbury has left as the type of player he is. I like the idea of Bradley-Ellsbury-Victorino outfield. Great D! Gomes could still get ABs against lefties and Nava as your 5th outfielder that switch hits. Nava also can play some first and I think he is more productive if he isn't over used. Ellsbury probably wouldn't take that offer though. The Sox do have some extra $$$$ there so I would not be opposed of them spending it on Ellsbury.

As far as the Lester / Peavy resigning, I'm not sure what will happen. Remember at some point some of these young arms (Barnes, Owens, Ranaudo, etc.) are going to start to make their way to Boston.

[mvp 78]

Well you predicted the Sox to fail this year too, with the Yankees coming out on top. How is that working out for you? Also in 2007(WS Champs bitch) and we had rookies Buchholz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury. Having rookies doesn't translate into failure all the time.

Ells only played in 33 games, clay only 4. It's not like they were counted on in April - July. They were just late season call ups. Different than starting untested guys on April 1.

[Dojji]

The sox are going to have an interesting dilemma come this offseason. They will have holes in spots that have solid prospects lined up to take over. But if you are going to go for the gusto, having 3 spots manned by a rookie typically spells doom for your playoff chances in year 1.

 

FA's after 2013 include (and I think Lester's option is picked up)

1B- Mike Napoli (2.2 WAR)

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (5.1WAR)

C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.6 WAR)

SS- Stephen Drew (2.3 WAR)

CL- Joel Hanrahan

LHP- Matt Thornton ($6 mil option for 2014)

 

For the position players, that is 12.2 WAR that needs to be replaced. And the likelihood is, all of the above players hit the market and find lucrative deals elsewhere.

 

So let's say they go the young route. Cecchini is playing well in AA, he could move up to the bigs at 3b. That would move Middlebrooks over to 1b and Bogaerts would take over at SS. You have JBJ taking over in CF and you'd have to scour the market for a C, or decide it is Lavarnway's time. While that decision likely would lead to further long term success, it would not yield a playoff caliber roster come 2014.

 

So you're assuming the Red Sox find no way to get anything done with any of their future FA.

 

Hey whatever makes Yankee fans sleep at night I guess.

[Dojji]

Ells only played in 33 games, clay only 4. It's not like they were counted on in April - July. They were just late season call ups. Different than starting untested guys on April 1.

 

This is true, which is one of the big reasons I hold onto Stephen Drew if I at all can. It's one thing to be confident in Bogaerts' ability to be a starting caliber SS, it's another for one of the richest teams in baseball to go count on it without a viable Plan B.

 

I'm pretty comfortable that Cherington has been in touch with Drew's agent about trying to find some common ground. He's been useful enough to hold onto, especially if we can move Dempster (who wasn't a disaster, but isn't really needed now) and hold onto Drew with Dempster's money.

 

If Bogaerts reprises Ellsbury's performance and makes it clear he's ready to go, we ought to fetch a decent return for Drew, just like we did for Crisp. It's a better way to run a franchise than throwing away a solid professional starting caliber PLAYER because you have a good high-ceiling PROSPECT. At least when that franchise is trying to compete every year.

 

As for Salty? If he's willing to sign at a reasonable price I'll keep him too. We have some young depth at catcher but nothing explosive and he is, again, a solid professional catcher when you average out his strengths against his weaknesses. I don't want to go all-rookie at the catcher's position next year, so if we lost Salty and someone else nabs McCann, I think we have a problem at catcher. Lavarnway and Butler/Vazquez have the raw talent to play the catcher's position, but there's a lot more to catching than strapping on the pads and getting baseballs thrown at you.

 

I'd be really anxious about our situation if we lost Salty, even with guys like Lavarnway, Vazquez, Swihart, and even Dan Butler who no one's heard of but is actually a very interesting catching prospect worth giving a shot at some point. There's such a thing as "too young" when it comes to catchers, much moreso than other positions.

Edited August 31, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

I really like the plan. I'm extremely torn on Ellsbury.

 

I would love to resign him, but at what cost?

 

Looking at the farm, it's as deep as it's been in a long time, particularly with starting pitching (Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, and De La Rosa all at AAA or MLB level right now, plus Owens who looks to be a potential ace if he can refine is curveball), and we have 6 starters in the rotation right now. I'm still of the mindset that De La Rosa will gain a lot more control next year, as this is his first year back from TJS. That's a ton of pitching depth, which is the most expensive commodity. Perhaps that frees up a good bit of money to sign Ellsbury.

 

The biggest piece missing from this team is 1B, where they have zero depth. I would not let Abreu get away from me. No chance. We've seen how good Puig is and Cespedes had a monster year last year.

 

A little tidbit I found on Abreu:

 

Jose Abreu earned his brief stateside fame when Davenport ran the first widely available attempt to translate Cuban numbers to MLB equivalents. His system suggested Cespedes was a .291/.357/.542 hitter at his very best, and a .258/.319/.471 MLB hitter in his Cuban career. For Abreu's age 24 season, the translator spit out .358/.468/.754. The year before that? .316/.435/.634.

 

Cespedes said he's as good as Miguel Cabrera.

 

He's the #1 target this offseason, and I can't imagine the Red Sox, with the resources they have both in freed up money and a lack of depth in the minor league system, don't come down with him.

 

1B the Sox lack depth - but it is also the easiest position to find a productive guy. Heck, a true Napoli-Carp platoon would actually be a pretty productive 2-headed 1B. The Sox can look at a guy like Abreu if they really think he can be a true 5-10 year solution at the position, but otherwise, simply filling it with a stopgap guy or two will not hurt them. Knowing how this team rolls, I'd expect them to spend their money (if they are going to lay out) on the rotation and the core positions. (up the middle while being opportunistic on the corners if a bat like Choo is possible)

[example1]

They need to find the bat that will ultimately replace Papi as the middle of the order run producer. Whether Papi is one or two seasons away from being less-good we know it is coming.

 

In that regard I'm also a big fan of going after guys like Abreu. While they cost a lot more than draft picks would financially, their contracts certainly aren't absurd in most cases and they are ready to play now. The Sox should have the money to make it happen and this would fit into their immediate and long term plans--assuming that Abreu is clean, good, and actually the age as advertised.

 

As for the list at the top of the thread, I actually like it a lot. Nothing too unrealistic about it and yet the end result is a very formidable team. Ellsbury will probably depart, though if he resigned for something reasonable I would be happy. JBJ has the tools to replicate what Ellsbury does in most facets of the game, except the speed, and it might take he and Bogaerts a year or two to fully acclimate to MLB games.

 

The pitching depth is tremendous right now, without even including Henry Owens, who is the best pitcher in the system. I bet they have 2-3 rotation regulars in the minors right now, with at least the ceiling of Felix Doubront, which is pretty darn good.

[mvp 78]

Whatever example says, I agree with.