How to score a lot of runs

[Bellhorn04]

Way to advertise your own thread.

 

Huh..doesn't matter whose thread it is...just trying to keep things more organized. It ain't like I'm getting paid for 'my thread'.

[VA Sox Fan]

Huh..doesn't matter whose thread it is...just trying to keep things more organized. It ain't like I'm getting paid for 'my thread'.

 

Keep up the good work Bell!

[Thunder]

Huh..doesn't matter whose thread it is...just trying to keep things more organized. It ain't like I'm getting paid for 'my thread'.

 

I'm bored. It's an off day. I say stupid things.

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm bored. It's an off day. I say stupid things.

 

Only on an off day???? ;)

[Thunder]

Only on an off day???? ;)

 

Yes. I'm sticking to that.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm bored. It's an off day. I say stupid things.

 

It's OK. You're not much older than I was when I became a Sox fan in 1969. Back then the only way I could follow games was on the transistor radio, AM band. The game wouldn't start to come in clearly until about 8 Eastern time, an hour into the game. Amazingly, that hasn't changed over the years through all the technology. If I'm listening to the game in the car on AM radio it still doesn't come in till around that time.

[jung]

Everybody is talking about four pitchers like four pitchers matters in a post season playoff. I suspect we do it because that is what we have...four really good pitchers and we want to make what we have more relevant in a post season scenario. The guy at the top of the rotation is the guy that matters once you hit the post season cause you are going to see him in games 1 and 4. If he can dominate you in games 1 and 4, your only real chances are games 2 and 3 out of the first four. That makes a 7 games series tough to win because you you are getting stoned in games 1 and 4.

 

Don't know how many hockey fans there are here but if you told me I was going to face a dominating stone me goalie in games 1 and 4 of a playoff series, I would have a hard time thinking I could win that series if what I had was a pair of solid but not dominant goalies. I would feel that way even if I was told that the opponent's second string goalie was going to play games 2 and 3 and was not better than average.

 

Detroit is the only team that really worries me. However I don't see much chance of Detroit not getting to the ALC game unless they happen to fall out of 1st in the central. I just don't much believe in this "anything can happen" stuff when you get to teams like what Detroit is this year.

 

If Price represented in my eyes what Scherzer represents, then I would fear the Rays as well. I just don't think Price is as consistently able to go out there and just stone you like Scherzer can. Scherzer is going on average a ridiculous number of innings per game for a starter and that is a real concern. Our offense chews up middle relief...a great strategy for the regular season. But you may not see much middle relief in the post season and I am not sure the Sox offense can sustain itself without it.

[Bellhorn04]

Everybody is talking about four pitchers like four pitchers matters in a post season playoff. I suspect we do it because that is what we have...four really good pitchers and we want to make what we have more relevant in a post season scenario. The guy at the top of the rotation is the guy that matters once you hit the post season cause you are going to see him in games 1 and 4. If he can dominate you in games 1 and 4, your only real chances are games 2 and 3 out of the first four. That makes a 7 games series tough to win because you you are getting stoned in games 1 and 4.

 

Actually you do need 4 starters in a 7 game series now, because managers hardly ever use their starters on 3 days rest anymore. Look up the postseason game logs for the last few years and you'll see what I mean. Game 4 is usually on the 4th day after Game 1 because there's only one off-day between.

 

If you remember back to the 2007 ALCS there was a lot of controversy over whether we should start Wakefield in Game 4 or start Beckett on short rest. Tito took huge flak for sticking with Wakefield, especially when he stunk and we lost. But it worked out well after that.

[Orange Juiced]

Everybody is talking about four pitchers like four pitchers matters in a post season playoff. I suspect we do it because that is what we have...four really good pitchers and we want to make what we have more relevant in a post season scenario. The guy at the top of the rotation is the guy that matters once you hit the post season cause you are going to see him in games 1 and 4. If he can dominate you in games 1 and 4, your only real chances are games 2 and 3 out of the first four. That makes a 7 games series tough to win because you you are getting stoned in games 1 and 4.

 

Don't know how many hockey fans there are here but if you told me I was going to face a dominating stone me goalie in games 1 and 4 of a playoff series, I would have a hard time thinking I could win that series if what I had was a pair of solid but not dominant goalies. I would feel that way even if I was told that the opponent's second string goalie was going to play games 2 and 3 and was not better than average.

 

Detroit is the only team that really worries me. However I don't see much chance of Detroit not getting to the ALC game unless they happen to fall out of 1st in the central. I just don't much believe in this "anything can happen" stuff when you get to teams like what Detroit is this year.

 

If Price represented in my eyes what Scherzer represents, then I would fear the Rays as well. I just don't think Price is as consistently able to go out there and just stone you like Scherzer can. Scherzer is going on average a ridiculous number of innings per game for a starter and that is a real concern. Our offense chews up middle relief...a great strategy for the regular season. But you may not see much middle relief in the post season and I am not sure the Sox offense can sustain itself without it.

 

In a seven game series, most teams don't throw the same pitcher out in games 1, 4, and 7. Most teams - even those with a dominant ace - tend to use 4 starters these days. For example, in 2011, the Tigers and Rangers faced each other in the ALCS. In game 1, Verlander (the undisputed ace of that staff, CYA and MVP winner) lost a narrow game 3-2. The Rangers took game 2 and the Tigers took game 3. So what to do in game 4, down 2 games to 1? Instead of throwing Verlander (who had thrown just 82 pitches in game 1), they opted for Rick Porcello, who had a 4.75 era and 1.41 whip that year. They lost 7-3 in 11 innings.

 

They then pitched Verlander in game 5 and Detroit won, but wound up losing game 6.

 

Why wouldn't Detroit use Verlander in game 4, when they were down 2-1, which also might have enabled him to pitch in game 7 as well (should it get that far)? No idea. It was a perfect situation to use your ace in games 1, 4, and 7, especially when the alternative was a guy with a 4.75 era.

 

Not saying that teams just don't do it anymore ever, but I wouldn't really worry about it in a 7 game series, to be honest.

[mvp 78]

Seeing how the Sox struggle against lefties, I'd be really concerned if they had to face Price. Right now, the Sox can't match up with another team's ace (i.e. Price) because the Sox pitching staff is filled with 2's and 3's. Who is the #1 today? Lester? Peavy? An "injured" Buchholz? Price is a lot better than any of those guys.

[User Name]

Even worse, the Rays have Price AND Moore, who can pitch as good as Price at his best on any given night.

[Bellhorn04]

Seeing how the Sox struggle against lefties, I'd be really concerned if they had to face Price. Right now, the Sox can't match up with another team's ace (i.e. Price) because the Sox pitching staff is filled with 2's and 3's. Who is the #1 today? Lester? Peavy? An "injured" Buchholz? Price is a lot better than any of those guys.

 

On average, he is. On a given day, who knows? Price has bad games like everybody.

[Orange Juiced]

Seeing how the Sox struggle against lefties, I'd be really concerned if they had to face Price. Right now, the Sox can't match up with another team's ace (i.e. Price) because the Sox pitching staff is filled with 2's and 3's. Who is the #1 today? Lester? Peavy? An "injured" Buchholz? Price is a lot better than any of those guys.

 

Agreed. But he isn't superhuman. On May 15, the Sox beat up on Price, winning 9-2 behind 7 strong innings from Lester.

 

Now, it may have been that Price wasn't 100% healthy, because that was his last start before going on the DL, but still. He can be beat. He has six starts (out of 20 total) where he's given up 4 or more earned runs. I could see Lester or Peavy or Lackey holding the Rays to 1 or 2 runs and the Sox winning a 3-2 game against Price.

[mvp 78]

On average, he is. On a given day, who knows? Price has bad games like everybody.

 

Well, of course. It's not impossible to beat him. The Sox still have one of the best teams in the league. I'm just saying not to overlook what a dominant starter can do in the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

Verlander has been one of the most dominant pitchers since 2006.

 

But in 11 postseason starts (ignoring the 1 inning rain-shortened start) he only has 4 Quality Starts.

[sk7326]

Actually you do need 4 starters in a 7 game series now, because managers hardly ever use their starters on 3 days rest anymore. Look up the postseason game logs for the last few years and you'll see what I mean. Game 4 is usually on the 4th day after Game 1 because there's only one off-day between.

 

If you remember back to the 2007 ALCS there was a lot of controversy over whether we should start Wakefield in Game 4 or start Beckett on short rest. Tito took huge flak for sticking with Wakefield, especially when he stunk and we lost. But it worked out well after that.

 

Very much agreed here. If you look at the AL contenders, only Darvish and Verlander are any sort of solid candidates to pitch on 3-days rest. The Sox are in good shape in almost every #3/#4 vs #3/#4 matchup. The top 2 is a little trickier, but a team with Boston's approach at the plate could easily scuffle against a Price but still chase him before the 7th on just pitch counts.

[rjortiz]

Everybody is talking about four pitchers like four pitchers matters in a post season playoff. I suspect we do it because that is what we have...four really good pitchers and we want to make what we have more relevant in a post season scenario. The guy at the top of the rotation is the guy that matters once you hit the post season cause you are going to see him in games 1 and 4. If he can dominate you in games 1 and 4, your only real chances are games 2 and 3 out of the first four. That makes a 7 games series tough to win because you you are getting stoned in games 1 and 4.

 

Don't know how many hockey fans there are here but if you told me I was going to face a dominating stone me goalie in games 1 and 4 of a playoff series, I would have a hard time thinking I could win that series if what I had was a pair of solid but not dominant goalies. I would feel that way even if I was told that the opponent's second string goalie was going to play games 2 and 3 and was not better than average.

 

Detroit is the only team that really worries me. However I don't see much chance of Detroit not getting to the ALC game unless they happen to fall out of 1st in the central. I just don't much believe in this "anything can happen" stuff when you get to teams like what Detroit is this year.

 

If Price represented in my eyes what Scherzer represents, then I would fear the Rays as well. I just don't think Price is as consistently able to go out there and just stone you like Scherzer can. Scherzer is going on average a ridiculous number of innings per game for a starter and that is a real concern. Our offense chews up middle relief...a great strategy for the regular season. But you may not see much middle relief in the post season and I am not sure the Sox offense can sustain itself without it.

 

Some other people covered it, but I can't remember the last time someone pitched in Game 1 and Game 4. Even in the ALDS, they use a four man rotation. I also don't see how you can completely write off Game 1 and 4, even if that were the case. How much of a favorite would Detroit be? 60%? Those odds aren't insurmountable.

[rjortiz]

Even worse, the Rays have Price AND Moore, who can pitch as good as Price at his best on any given night.

 

Moore has a lot of talent, but he still has control problems. I like the Red Sox patient approach against a pitcher like him.

[rjortiz]

Well, of course. It's not impossible to beat him. The Sox still have one of the best teams in the league. I'm just saying not to overlook what a dominant starter can do in the playoffs.

 

I don't think anyone is overlooking the potential impact. I don't think it is as massive as many people think it is. An ace pitcher against the Red Sox, even at home, wouldn't be more than a -150 favorite, and even that line might be a little high.

[User Name]

Moore has a lot of talent, but he still has control problems. I like the Red Sox patient approach against a pitcher like him.

 

The problem, however, is that when he comes in throwing strikes, he's the bane of the Sox' offensive approach. A lefty power pitcher pounding the strike zone is not something the Red Sox have been particularly able to overcome this season. And look no further than Moore's July 22 start against the Sox for evidence.

[User Name]

I don't think anyone is overlooking the potential impact. I don't think it is as massive as many people think it is. An ace pitcher against the Red Sox, even at home, wouldn't be more than a -150 favorite, and even that line might be a little high.

 

One thing i don't understand is your insistence on using "betting lines" to illustrate points. I don't really think anyone else looks at them or takes them into consideration.

[Bellhorn04]

Some other people covered it, but I can't remember the last time someone pitched in Game 1 and Game 4.

 

Schilling pitched Games 1, 4 and 7 of the 2001 WS. That's the last one I can think of.

[mvp 78]

One thing i don't understand is your insistence on using "betting lines" to illustrate points. I don't really think anyone else looks at them or takes them into consideration.

 

Betting lines are about spreading the money, not entirely about the likelihood of an outcome.

[mvp 78]

I don't think anyone is overlooking the potential impact. I don't think it is as massive as many people think it is. An ace pitcher against the Red Sox, even at home, wouldn't be more than a -150 favorite, and even that line might be a little high.

 

To me, it seemed like jung was saying that he wasn't overly concerned about facing Price. I just think the pitching matchups between the Rays and Sox favor the Rays. Whether the Sox offense can make up the difference (especially against lefties) remains to be seen.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm more concerned about our bullpen than I am about how our starters match up. On paper we would have a hard time winning many bullpen wars. Uehara has been incredible, but the bridge to Uehara is a little wobbly. It's a question of whether guys like Workman and Britton can step up and be postseason heroes.

[sk7326]

I'm more concerned about our bullpen than I am about how our starters match up. On paper we would have a hard time winning many bullpen wars. Uehara has been incredible, but the bridge to Uehara is a little wobbly. It's a question of whether guys like Workman and Britton can step up and be postseason heroes.

 

It's not actually bad at all .. Breslow/Tazawa/Uehara is as good a bridge to the end of the game as any team puts out there. Thornton, Britton are decent. Dempster being converted into a swing man I am confident in (he has bullpen experience, swing and miss stuff and the fastball could be more 92-94 than 90-91 in relief).

[Orange Juiced]

Schilling pitched Games 1, 4 and 7 of the 2001 WS. That's the last one I can think of.

 

I think the Yankees did it with Sabathia too. Yep, in the ALCS he pitched games 1 and 4, and then again in the World Series he pitched in games 1 and 4. In both cases each series went 6 games, but Sabathia undoubtedly would have gone in game 7 if necessary.

[Orange Juiced]

It's not actually bad at all .. Breslow/Tazawa/Uehara is as good a bridge to the end of the game as any team puts out there. Thornton, Britton are decent. Dempster being converted into a swing man I am confident in (he has bullpen experience, swing and miss stuff and the fastball could be more 92-94 than 90-91 in relief).

 

Tazawa is very interesting. His raw numbers are very solid: 2.75 era, 1.15 whip, 7.0 k/9. He's pitched in 59 games (59 innings pitched as well), and in those 59 games, he's allowed the other team to score 17 times (28.8% of the time). In other words, pretty much once out of every four games he allows a run. But only *twice* has he allowed more than one run: April 30 (vs. Tor), 2 runs; and then June 29 (vs. Tor), 2 runs. So he never "blows up".

 

Notice the opponent in those two games: Toronto. They seem to be his kryptonite. Here are his numbers:

 

- vs. Toronto: 7.2 ip, 11 h, 7 r, 7 er, 3 bb, 7 k, 5 hr, 8.22 era, 1.83 whip, 8.2 k/9, 1.53 ip/hr

- vs. Everyone Else: 51.1 ip, 48 h, 12 r, 11 er, 6 bb, 56 k, 3 hr, 1.93 era, 1.05 whip, 9.8 k/9, 17.11 ip/hr

 

I mean, he's nails against everyone but Toronto, apparently. The good news for him is that in the playoffs, he won't be facing the Jays. :-)

[User Name]

I think the Yankees did it with Sabathia too. Yep, in the ALCS he pitched games 1 and 4, and then again in the World Series he pitched in games 1 and 4. In both cases each series went 6 games, but Sabathia undoubtedly would have gone in game 7 if necessary.

 

And that's partly why Fat sabby is now a shell of his former self.

[rjortiz]

One thing i don't understand is your insistence on using "betting lines" to illustrate points. I don't really think anyone else looks at them or takes them into consideration.

 

You can convert the betting line into a percentage. -150 is a 60% chance to win a game. That seems to be a reasonable number. The point being that even with Scherzer on the mound, the Tigers win probability isn't anywhere near the point where you could just write off Game 1. Betting lines are just one way to look at that. They pretty much use the same statistical data that other experts use to make projections, plus the track record of sportsbooks are good enough that they should be taken into consideration when making a prediction. It should at least erase the idea that Scherzer is an absolute lock to win every game he pitches in.

 

BTW, this was more in response to Jung's statement about Scherzer.