Should we resign Jacoby Ellsbury?

[marklmw]

As bad as i hate to think it. I see the Spanks as the dark horse to sign Ells. Alot of talk of Seattle and Texas wanting him but the Spanks have seen Ells alot and stealing bases all over them and with Granderson a FA they could make a big run at Ells.

Damon worked out well for them I would imagine that Ells will also.

[User Name]

You can never discount the Yankees, but it's unlikely. They have too many holes.

[redsoxrules]

Ellsbury was on 2 championship teams. He is the fastest guy that I have seen in a Red Sox uni in my lifetime. I love the element of elite speed that he brings to the game. I would be happy to keep him with the Red Sox. I don't really care much about extra draft picks. That doesn't excite me anywhere near the excitement that I feel when Ells hits one in the gap or down the line or when he takes off to steal second base.

 

Name me players with exceptional speed like Ells that did not fade away ( meaning lost a few steps) past 32 years old not named Rickey Henderson

[mvp 78]

Personally, I like the excitement of Ben the boob handing us a WS title. If he wants to let Ells go, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and don't see a reason to bitch about him for a while.

[seabeachfred]

I'm not crazy about the new toy. If money had nothing to do with this I'd want Ells as the starting CF next year.

You have to admit it would be quite a gamble to give Ells CC type contract.

 

No!!!! No seven year contract!!! But I would try for a five year one to keep him in Red Sox RED. I happen to be in the minority on one thing on this board and that happens to be what goes with JBjr. I still have some reservations about his being able to hit Major League pitching consistently. Those who come to me with that "small sample" business might have a point but his hitting was weak to the max while here. If he tanks next season there might be some real recriminations about losing Ellsbury. Besides, Ells is a better all around player than Bradley, has more speed and more power. He also knows how to play and thrive in Boston and most of us know that many players (CC for a glaring example) cannot handle the Boston fan and media pressure. Having said that I have also said that one or two teams are going to offer Jacoby a CC type contract because teams seem to be loaded with money nowadays. That most likely means we have to root like hell for Jackie and I have to hope my fears about his hitting or lack of same is completely wrong.

[seabeachfred]

As bad as i hate to think it. I see the Spanks as the dark horse to sign Ells. Alot of talk of Seattle and Texas wanting him but the Spanks have seen Ells alot and stealing bases all over them and with Granderson a FA they could make a big run at Ells.

 

Dupree, it is good to see you and a couple of others like my pal Ted see the Yankees for what they are.....a pack of slithering lying bastards laying in wait and then like the snakes they are leap up and snag another one of our players. They did it with Damon after lying through their friggin' teeth that they had no interest, then three years later waiting in the weeds for us to keep offering Teixeira more money and more money and then leaping in with a bigger offer of their own. Again, before than they hadn't said they had any interest in Mark.

 

Just keep your eyes on the Yankees. This is their typical sneaky MO, and I don't give a rat's ass about what the threshold is on the team salary cap because the Yankees want to win and will gladly pay the millions in penalties to get themselves back in contention. Remember, their team in old, crippled and their farm system isn't worth a pitcher of spit. Don't take your eyes off those bastards at all.

[jung]

To me, Ells strengths as a player are his weaknesses as you consider how many years of effective play he has in him while trying to justify a super big money deal at anything like 6-7 years.

 

CF is known to take it out of a player but CF is also where he offers the most value. He is clearly one of the most athletic players we have ever seen in a Sox uni at least for any length of time. However even now, clearly into his middle career, he still relies mainly on that athleticism to get things done. What happens to him as that starts to decline?

 

I have not gotten myself convinced that he adapts well over time. That is not to say that my opinion is worth anything in the world of the MLB GM. But there it is. What incentive will he have to buck that tide of age if somebody does sign him for six or seven years? He clearly will not be the same player at 37 than he is at 30 even more so than your average superstar big money contract player. I don't see a ballooned up Ells cracking 20 dingers a year at that age. However I also do not see the exciting speed demon we currently love.

 

For Ells and players like him, this is also where the PA's inability to develop a formula that drives more of the money deeper into the roster comes home to roost. Yes he is a superstar or at least a star. But without big power and with the salary gap that exists between the stars of the league and much of the rest of the rank and file, you can envision buying what Ells could very well end up being at age 35 and 36 for way less money than his big money contract would cost a team in those out-years.

 

Ells probably knows this better than anybody and with two championships under his belt, if somebody tosses 6-7 years down that will probably suggest to him that such a contract takes him to the end of his effective big contract negotiating life as a player. 5 years leaves him in decline, not ready to give up the game but in a lousy position to negotiate that last deal. So, I think Ells ends up really favoring whichever teams or team tosses down 6-7 years covering those last two years at a very attractive income for him based on the player that there is every chance he might be at that point.

[callandor1000]

I would like to see the Sox make Ellsbury a crazy offer. At least something to make him blink. I think most can at least understand the difficulty of offering a high dollar contract for a long time. Length is the biggest factor but we wouldn't be worrying if Ellsbury was hunting for 7 years 75 million.

 

I would like to see him offered 4 years at $120 million with incentives to reach $130 million. I think Ellsbury has at least two really good dynamic years ahead of him. This would be good for both parties, IMO.

[User Name]

What if the Red Sox offered Ellsbury a really front-loaded contract? Maybe that's the best of both worlds for both parties.

[Dojji]

 

Name me players with exceptional speed like Ells that did not fade away ( meaning lost a few steps) past 32 years old not named Rickey Henderson

 

Oh there's little doubt that the days of elite speed are numbered, they always are, the question is can he do what Kenny Lofton did, and turn elite speed into great timing and savvy with the speed he does have. He'll have to transform himself into a smarter hitter as his generational speed fades into merely being above average but there's more than a few veterans who demonstrate how that transition can be made.

[marklmw]

What if the Red Sox offered Ellsbury a really front-loaded contract? Maybe that's the best of both worlds for both parties.

 

what do you have in mind?

[User Name]

what do you have in mind?

 

The Sox could offer a backloaded contract that pays him 20 million in 14 and 15, 18 in 16 and 17, then 16 in 18 and 19.

 

That'd average out to 18 over six years (108 millions total).

[Dojji]

I'd offer him a 10M AAV with an incentive that adds $8M in every year he reaches 125 games played.

[User Name]

....and he'd never, ever take it.

[Dojji]

Don't see why not, he's trying to convince us his durability problem is a thing of the past. Why not ask him to share the risk?

 

Just a thought to throw out there. A lower AAV with incentives for games played (which we know is legal under the CBA) might be a way to get a deal done that satisfies both sides.

[User Name]

Simple: How does it benefit Ellsbury?

 

It doesn't. That makes no sense.

 

If you offered 15 with an exorbitant incentive that took his salary to the stratosphere, that'd be a whole other deal. He could get 18 per for 5 years with his eyes closed and with no gimmicks required.

[Bellhorn04]

Dupree, it is good to see you and a couple of others like my pal Ted see the Yankees for what they are.....a pack of slithering lying bastards laying in wait and then like the snakes they are leap up and snag another one of our players. They did it with Damon after lying through their friggin' teeth that they had no interest, then three years later waiting in the weeds for us to keep offering Teixeira more money and more money and then leaping in with a bigger offer of their own. Again, before than they hadn't said they had any interest in Mark.

 

Just keep your eyes on the Yankees. This is their typical sneaky MO, and I don't give a rat's ass about what the threshold is on the team salary cap because the Yankees want to win and will gladly pay the millions in penalties to get themselves back in contention. Remember, their team in old, crippled and their farm system isn't worth a pitcher of spit. Don't take your eyes off those bastards at all.

 

Nah, Fred, the Yankees are done with the big free agent signings. They haven't done one since their pre-2009 spending orgy. This is Hal's team now.

 

OK, I'm messing with you a bit.

 

But keep in mind they have to deal with Cano this year.

 

And as every day goes by I'm hoping more and more that A-Rod wriggles out of his suspension so they have to keep paying his lying ass.

[Palodios]

Simple: How does it benefit Ellsbury?

 

It doesn't. That makes no sense.

 

If you offered 15 with an exorbitant incentive that took his salary to the stratosphere, that'd be a whole other deal. He could get 18 per for 5 years with his eyes closed and with no gimmicks required.

 

Has anyone really been all that interested in Ellsbury so far? It seems like Boras has his mouthpieces out there saying that teams are interested, and those teams explicitly go out of their way to say no, they aren't. He did the same thing with Edwin Jackson -- teams were pretty clear that they weren't interested and Boras kept lying out of his ass.

[User Name]

Has anyone really been all that interested in Ellsbury so far? It seems like Boras has his mouthpieces out there saying that teams are interested, and those teams explicitly go out of their way to say no, they aren't. He did the same thing with Edwin Jackson -- teams were pretty clear that they weren't interested and Boras kept lying out of his ass.

 

....yet he still got a team to overpay big time. Someone always does.

[Dojji]

He got less money per year for Jackson than Dempster got. he got more years, true, but they're the age 29-32 years, the ones that are usually worth paying for.

 

if you assume that you have to evaluate free agents strictly based on what similar free agents get paid, Jackson really wasn't overpaid. Now he did underperform for what he was paid to be but that's an entirely different question IMHO.

[redsoxrules]

Theres obviously teams interested in Ellsbury but how many are willing to go 7 years.... I doubt there isn't many if any.

[a700hitter]

Personally, I like the excitement of Ben the boob handing us a WS title. If he wants to let Ells go, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and don't see a reason to bitch about him for a while.

If you are seeing bitching about Ben, you have a really warped filter.

[User Name]

He got less money per year for Jackson than Dempster got. he got more years, true, but they're the age 29-32 years, the ones that are usually worth paying for.

 

if you assume that you have to evaluate free agents strictly based on what similar free agents get paid, Jackson really wasn't overpaid. Now he did underperform for what he was paid to be but that's an entirely different question IMHO.

 

This would be valid if Jacksonwas anything more than mediocre.

[Dojji]

He was. Prior to this year of course, he had a well established track record as a roughly average starter with a very high level of durability. Those guys are more valuable than their ERA+ lets on.

[User Name]

He was. Prior to this year of course, he had a well established track record as a roughly average starter with a very high level of durability. Those guys are more valuable than their ERA+ lets on.

 

But that doesn't guarantee them big money or years. Boras got Jackson a good deal, that's the reality of it.

[Palodios]

....yet he still got a team to overpay big time. Someone always does.

 

It all comes down to the One-Dumb-Owner theory. The question is -- is anyone seriously dumb enough to pay 150 million for Crawford part 2?

[User Name]

It all comes down to the One-Dumb-Owner theory. The question is -- is anyone seriously dumb enough to pay 150 million for Crawford part 2?

 

Probably not. But there's a realistic chance someone goes 6/120 for him with the justification that it's less money than Jayson Werth got for a better, younger player. That's probably too rich for the Sox' blood.

[seabeachfred]

Don't see why not, he's trying to convince us his durability problem is a thing of the past. Why not ask him to share the risk?

 

Just a thought to throw out there. A lower AAV with incentives for games played (which we know is legal under the CBA) might be a way to get a deal done that satisfies both sides.

 

I don't think he'd accept that either Doj. He has no incentive to share any risk whatsoever. In his position it is a seller's market and from other team's it's a buyer's one as long as the buyer is willing to fork over a lot of money for his services. If the Red Sox were the only team interested it might work but not with a few other teams willing to throw money at him. BTW, any rumors out there of any particular team willing to take the lead and sign him?

[seabeachfred]

Nah, Fred, the Yankees are done with the big free agent signings. They haven't done one since their pre-2009 spending orgy. This is Hal's team now.

 

OK, I'm messing with you a bit.

 

But keep in mind they have to deal with Cano this year.

 

And as every day goes by I'm hoping more and more that A-Rod wriggles out of his suspension so they have to keep paying his lying ass.

 

The Cano thing could put a crimp in their plans because they have to sign him--that's a fact!!!!! If they don't they lose their best player and there is no one out there that can replace him on the FA market. They would have to trade for a slugger, say like Stanton, but they don't have s*** to trade for him, their farm system being in the outhouse. Then there's A-Fraud. I can't see how he could wiggle away from a suspension when others got them and took them. But there's a good chance the sentence could be reduced. I think the Yankees want to get that problem resolved faster than anyone else while I would like to see it drag out so they don't have a clue which way to go. Still every time we win like 2004 and 2007 they go on a spending binge. I would still keep my eye on those creeps.

[marklmw]

Has anyone really been all that interested in Ellsbury so far? It seems like Boras has his mouthpieces out there saying that teams are interested, and those teams explicitly go out of their way to say no, they aren't. He did the same thing with Edwin Jackson -- teams were pretty clear that they weren't interested and Boras kept lying out of his ass.

I am constantly telling my 4 y.o. son to tell the truth ... I might be giving the lad bad advise and perhaps being politically incorrect at the same time.