2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?

[Bellhorn04]

He is still Salty......he is playing above his talent level this year. Hes been pretty good, but he is not worth a 3 year extension, and hes NOWHERE near being a 15M a year player as someone suggested earlier. Let him walk, get a real defensive catcher and replace the offense somewhere else.

 

Playing above his talent level? Come on man, are you a major league scout? He's 28 years old, he hasn't even played 600 games yet. Isn't it possible he's improving with experience?

 

And 'replace the offense somewhere else' - you're making that sound pretty simple. What if the new catcher has a .580 OPS? At what position are we going to make up the lost 200 points of OPS?

[jung]

Well OK, I don't think Salty is a $15M man either but the argument for getting the offense elsewhere and just finding a better defensive catcher all rolls off the tongue nicely but is to me harder to pull off in principle.

 

In the first place, runs aside, this team is not an offensive juggernaut. They have a great process IMO that works for them. They believe in it and they practice what they preach. But even with that, if you took Ortiz out of this offense, they would be toast...one player...... So I am not ready to toss Salty at this point because he is part of a process that works for this team and he has worked to get to that point. How many times have we been just about amazed seeing him draw a walk? He is producing a bit more offense than I think we would have expected on balance and he is "marginally" better behind the plate. Was not really showing even a mosquito's yo-yo worth of improvement as a catcher at the start of the season but got a little better as the season progressed.

 

I have no idea why anybody would offer him 3/45. Don't see it. But I do think he will come to terms with the Sox who know his limitations. He fits here and I bet he knows it.

Edited August 13, 2013 by jung

[Lord Snow]

Well OK, I don't think Salty is a $15M man either but the argument for getting the offense elsewhere and just finding a better defensive catcher all rolls off the tongue nicely but is to me harder to pull off in principle.

 

In the first place, runs aside, this team is not an offensive juggernaut. They have a great process IMO that works for them. They believe in it and they practice what they preach. But even with that, if you took Ortiz out of this offense, they would be toast...one player...... So I am not ready to toss Salty at this point because he is part of a process that works for this team and he has worked to get to that point. How many times have we been just about amazed seeing him draw a walk? He is producing a bit more offense than I think we would have expected on balance and he is "marginally" better behind the plate. Was not really showing even a mosquito's yo-yo worth of improvement as a catcher at the start of the season but got a little better as the season progressed.

 

I have no idea why anybody would offer him 3/45. Don't see it. But I do think he will come to terms with the Sox who know his limitations. He fits here and I bet he knows it.

 

I don't think anybody is suggesting offering him $15M a year, nor do I think any team will. Salty is a $5-8M per year player. I'd be very surprised if somebody offers him $10M/year. And the Sox would be wise to extend him before McCann signs and all the teams who miss out on him turn their attention to Salty.

[Palodios]

[/b]

 

I certainly do. But the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts a heartbeat away.

 

If XB plays SS, then who plays 3B? If Middlebrooks plays 3B, who plays 1B? I don't think the Red Sox need Drew, but he's worth taking a chance on a qualifying offer.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think anybody is suggesting offering him $15M a year, nor do I think any team will. Salty is a $5-8M per year player. I'd be very surprised if somebody offers him $10M/year. And the Sox would be wise to extend him before McCann signs and all the teams who miss out on him turn their attention to Salty.

 

Based on what? WAR, contract comparisons or just your own personal sentiments?

[sk7326]

[/b]

 

I certainly do. But the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts a heartbeat away, all indications are that he should be worth at least a .780 OPS, and hopefully much better. Why anybody wants to sign up Drew beyond 2013 defies logic. There is simply no need.

 

You used a similar argument that I used for Salty. The difference is the Red Sox don't have a top 10 prospect who plays catcher with half a season at AAA under his belt.

 

There is no need - and I think the Red Sox might be spooked from a qualifying offer because Drew might take it. He made 9.5 million because that is the going rate for an above average SS, which he has been before.

 

You have to look a bit beyond OPS here - although that is a solid place to start. He got on base at a good clip - which is more important than the slugging part. His BABIP is a little high (.321) but not at the absurd levels Iglesias was enjoying. Ultimately he is going to end this year as a 3-4 win player, and frankly in this economic climate that is a bargain for $9.5 million.

 

Good to excellent defense, excellent approach, good power ... he is going to have suitors this offseason. He has probably had the best SS season since Nomar left and the position became a black hole. Let's put it this way, there are plenty of at-bats for everybody if Drew and Boegarts come back. Middlebrooks might get squeezed, but part of that is on him.

[Dojji]

[/b]

 

I certainly do. But the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts a heartbeat away, all indications are that he should be worth at least a .780 OPS, and hopefully much better. Why anybody wants to sign up Drew beyond 2013 defies logic.

 

Because prospects always fill their potential immediately?

 

Because shortstops on that caliber grow on trees?

 

Because this team's FO and fanbase are well known for their patience and ability to wait a year for results?

 

Because there's no way to crowd both Bogaerts and Drew into the lineup given the one man wrecking crew that is Will Middlebrooks?

 

Look -- I get the love for Bogaerts. I do. But at this point the absolute most big league experience he could possibly get is a little over a month, and that mostly against diluted competition. Meanwhile we have a fully established high level professional on the roster already. I surrender that advantage only grudgingly, after everything I can think of to hold onto it.

 

Drew's usually going to hit the DL a couple times in a given year. There will be plenty of chances for Bogaerts to strut his stuff, and if he's clearly better, then you can trade Drew. That strikes me as a great deal saner than just closing our eyes and wishing real hard that Bogaerts doesn't have any growing pains.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

I don't think anybody is suggesting offering him $15M a year, nor do I think any team will. Salty is a $5-8M per year player. I'd be very surprised if somebody offers him $10M/year. And the Sox would be wise to extend him before McCann signs and all the teams who miss out on him turn their attention to Salty.

 

Salty is probably closer to your number than $15M. But he is not really much worse than Brian McCann who'd cost years, money, and you are buying the later years of a body with a LOT of miles on him. It is hard to picture him making 110 starts ever again. You are better off finding Salty a useful righthanded caddy and be done with it.

[Lord Snow]

Based on what? WAR, contract comparisons or just your own personal sentiments?

 

Yeah because WAR is the #1 factor in what makes a player great *rolls eyes*.

 

Based on knowledge of past baseball signings, I figure that is what Salty will sign for. Nothing really jumps off the page at you when it comes to his game. Last year the 25 bombs did but that was 2012 and wasn't repeated in 2013. If he hit 25 homers last year, and 25 this year, you can bet a team would get over-anxious and throw big bucks at him but that isn't going to happen. Something like 3-4 years and $20-30M makes sense.

[SoxSport]

They should be shooting for better defense than Salty. He hits good for a catcher, but his defense needs improvement. Catching is like SS--it's a defensive position. Unless you have Johnny Bench, you pay for defense.

[SCM33]

Playing above his talent level? Come on man, are you a major league scout? He's 28 years old, he hasn't even played 600 games yet. Isn't it possible he's improving with experience?

 

And 'replace the offense somewhere else' - you're making that sound pretty simple. What if the new catcher has a .580 OPS? At what position are we going to make up the lost 200 points of OPS?

 

Think about what you just said. You said he is 28, and hasn't played 600 career games. There is a reason for that, someone out there didn't think he was good enough.

 

If they want to extend him, offer him a 1 year deal. Anything longer than that, no way.

[jung]

They should be shooting for better defense than Salty. He hits good for a catcher, but his defense needs improvement. Catching is like SS--it's a defensive position. Unless you have Johnny Bench, you pay for defense.

 

But you are talking about a point in baseball time that is long gone and hard to find I think. Maybe Catcher is one of the positions that has been most impacted by the surge in pro football with potential catchers opting for a different sport or something. I really don't know but the time you are talking about is gone. So much so that if I really had aspirations to have a kid be a pro ballplayer, I would teach him to crouch before he could walk. Maybe it is the way the position can in some cases shorten a career. Again I really don't know but wherever catchers used to come from, somebody turned off the tap. Take the Molina brothers away, (and how many times do you really see brothers at the same position) and the catching situation in baseball would really be piss poor. We have Salvator Perez who I would give my eye teeth for, Posey, Wieters I guess, the aging Molinas and then who....not many guys I would give anything for, especially guys young enough to make me take notice.

[Thunder]

Okay, this is my first post in this thread, and this is my take

I used this site: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

Everyone with expiring contracts besides rookies:

STAY:

Ellsbury

Middlebrooks

Napoli

Lester

Tazawa

Salty

Uehara

Miller

Doubront

Carp

Nava

 

 

GO:

Drew

Hanrahan

Morales

Bailey

 

Thoughts?

Edited August 13, 2013 by Thunder

[SCM33]

Okay, this is my first post in this thread, and this is my take

I used this site: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

Everyone with expiring contracts besides rookies:

STAY:

Ellsbury

Middlebrooks

Napoli

Lester

Bailey

Salty

Uehara

Miller

Doubront

Carp

Nava

 

 

GO:

Drew

Hanrahan

Morales

Tazawa

 

Thoughts?

 

Why would you let Tazawa go? He is the second best arm we have in the pen.

[Thunder]

Why would you let Tazawa go? He is the second best arm we have in the pen.

 

They need a lefty (Miller), and they've been pleased with Koji and satisfied with Bailey. They don't really need to do a whole lot to the pen, and Tazawa was the odd man out. Since I have Morales leaving, I see them picking up another lefty. Tazawa could tough be to decide. He could honestly go either way.

[Jasonbay44]

I would much rather keep Taz than Bailey.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay, this is my first post in this thread, and this is my take

I used this site: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

Everyone with expiring contracts besides rookies:

STAY:

Ellsbury

Middlebrooks

Napoli

Lester

Bailey

Salty

Uehara

Miller

Doubront

Carp

Nava

 

 

GO:

Drew

Hanrahan

Morales

Tazawa

 

Thoughts?

 

Not meaning to gang up on you here, but Bailey is a goner. Who knows if he'll even pitch in the big leagues again.

 

And Tazawa? He's not going anywhere. He's been our second-best reliever and his numbers since returning last year are outstanding.

[sk7326]

One - welcome ...

 

Two - the bullpen guys - you'll need them all, and you can't count on any of them. Just the nature of the position and when you are collecting performance data 50 innings or so at a time. Uehara looks like the most reliable (and his option will vest, so this discussion is moot). Tazawa is worth bringing back, but if somebody offers him 3 years - that becomes a very tough ask ... bringing ANY reliever back for that kind of commitment with the natural volatility of the position is generally a bad idea.

[Thunder]

I would much rather keep Taz than Bailey.

 

Yes, but if Bailey leaves, then Koji is the full time closer, which he can probably only handle for a year. Tazawa could fill in though...

[Thunder]

Not meaning to gang up on you here, but Bailey is a goner. Who knows if he'll even pitch in the big leagues again.

 

And Tazawa? He's not going anywhere. He's been our second-best reliever and his numbers since returning last year are outstanding.

 

Oh right. I actually forgot about Bailey. I'm a bit out of the loop. I'm just getting back into the civilized world. I knew he was out, but forgot why. Let me update the list.

[Jasonbay44]

Also, I'm almost positive Tazawa isn't even an expiring contract.. and I'm 100% positive that WMB isn't, this is his 2nd season.

 

Nava and Doubront definitely aren't going to be free agents either.

[Bellhorn04]

Tazawa isn't eligible for free agency until 2017.

[Jasonbay44]

Yes, but if Bailey leaves, then Koji is the full time closer, which he can probably only handle for a year. Tazawa could fill in though...

 

Bailey struggled as a closer and suffered a very serious injury, its not even clear when he'll be able to pitch again, he's likely going to miss at least a majority of next season.

 

Taz is a very reliable reliever and I see no reason whatsoever to let him go, especially in order to keep Bailey.

[Thunder]

Bailey struggled as a closer and suffered a very serious injury, its not even clear when he'll be able to pitch again, he's likely going to miss at least a majority of next season.

 

Taz is a very reliable reliever and I see no reason whatsoever to let him go, especially in order to keep Bailey.

 

Yes. I'm aware of that now. Read my post on the last spot of page 8. It's hard to leave the outside world for 3 weeks and remember everything that is going on.

[marklmw]

They need a lefty (Miller), and they've been pleased with Koji and satisfied with Bailey. They don't really need to do a whole lot to the pen, and Tazawa was the odd man out. Since I have Morales leaving, I see them picking up another lefty. Tazawa could tough be to decide. He could honestly go either way.

 

Satisfied with Bailey ... who is satisfied with Bailey.

[Brock Holt]

If you love s*****, injury prone relievers, Bailey is a great player to have.

[lospunchados]

Not keeping Tazawa is crazy, as he has three Arbitration eligible years left. If you get two good years out of the three he will be a bargin. He has pitched really well this whole year except a few bad outings and he has only had one month with an era over 3 (3.29).

[Station 13]

Bailey is in his last year of arbitration after this season. He isn't ready until next August after his surgery. I bet he is non-tendered and re-sign a minor contract, saving a roster spot for other player(s).

 

Cherrington including a vesting option for Uehara is genius. He will make the same next season at 4.2M. Had Uehara went to arbitration instead, he would get 7M with the season he is having. This saves them about $3M to target other relievers. Plus they are off the hook with $15M invested in Hanarahan, Bailey and Aceves in 2013.

 

Also I can't believe anyone want Tazawa gone. Since 2012, he has pitch 90 games, 98 inning for Boston with a 2.00ERA

[jad]

Maybe they could trade some of their crappy pitchers for this amazing shortstop that Detroit has.

[Behindenemylines]

I like the thought of a Bradley - Ellsbury - Victorino outfield, but Ellsbury would have to take less then he could get on the open market. He will not (Boras will not) take the 6 years at 90 million. It will take 110 to 120 million. If you let Drew and Napoli walk, and play Bradley LF - Bogaerts at SS - Carp 1B the money you will save will allow them to sign Ellsbury. I keep Salty (knows the staff and you get enough with the bat) at reasonable $$$$$, because an investment in McCann and catchers in general is a big risk.

 

1B Carp (probably need a right handed bat against tough lefties)

2B Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

3B WMB

LF Bradley (Gomes can still play against lefties)

CF Ellsbury

RF Victorino

C Salty / Ross

DH Papi

Edited August 13, 2013 by Behindenemylines
Left C / DH off