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Old-Timey Member
Posted

I don't think Ells gets $20M per either and I think Boras knows it. Why else was he trying to hammer his way into that income bracket earlier this year?

 

That said, once you are willing to say that you would not let him walk for 5/$80 it is almost a forgone conclusion that the bidding will exceed that. I just don't think it gets to 5/$100. Lands somewhere in between maybe with a premium for shorter term. I would be leery of Ells injury history at 5 years, mainly because whenever he goes down, you could build a duplicate of the Queen Mary before he gets back.

Posted
I don't think Ells gets $20M per either and I think Boras knows it. Why else was he trying to hammer his way into that income bracket earlier this year?

 

That said, once you are willing to say that you would not let him walk for 5/$80 it is almost a forgone conclusion that the bidding will exceed that. I just don't think it gets to 5/$100. Lands somewhere in between maybe with a premium for shorter term. I would be leery of Ells injury history at 5 years, mainly because whenever he goes down, you could build a duplicate of the Queen Mary before he gets back.

 

To me, this is a no-brainer. We have a prospect who is ready and will immediately provide better defense. Within a couple of years, he could probably provide similar offense, and he will cost 1/30th the price of Ellsbury. Why not spend the extra $17.5 million a year on a power bat, a top of the rotation starter, or some bullpen depth?

Old-Timey Member
Posted

That was silly....pitchers were making Agons look like that at times last year.

 

Great win for the Sox....What a terrific way to start one of these west coast swing death marches

Posted
I don't think Ells gets $20M per either and I think Boras knows it. Why else was he trying to hammer his way into that income bracket earlier this year?

 

 

2014 will be a terrible time to sign free agents, IMO. Every team in baseball will get a pile of money from new MLB tv contracts in 2014, so every team will have more to spend. The luxury tax is also going up 10+ million. We've also seen more teams go gung-ho with trades and FA signings because of the second wild card. I think external factors may push Ellsbury up into the 100 million range.

Community Moderator
Posted
2014 will be a terrible time to sign free agents, IMO. Every team in baseball will get a pile of money from new MLB tv contracts in 2014, so every team will have more to spend. The luxury tax is also going up 10+ million. We've also seen more teams go gung-ho with trades and FA signings because of the second wild card. I think external factors may push Ellsbury up into the 100 million range.

 

Also, he looks like he is capable of pushing his numbers to healthy levels by the end of the year. If Ellsbury ends up with an OPS of .825 or higher, with all those steals, he should have no problem getting at least $100 million. Recency counts for a lot with many GM's looking to make a splash.

Posted
The problem with the Michael Bourn/BJ Upton and Nick Swisher comparisons to Ellsbury is that he's better than both Bourn (better average/power/D) and BJ (better average/D/OBP with less power) and a completely different, younger player than Swisher. He also has Boras as his advisor in an offseason where only he and Choo are elite lead-off options. He will get his money.
Posted
The problem with the Michael Bourn/BJ Upton and Nick Swisher comparisons to Ellsbury is that he's better than both Bourn (better average/power/D) and BJ (better average/D/OBP with less power) and a completely different, younger player than Swisher. He also has Boras as his advisor in an offseason where only he and Choo are elite lead-off options. He will get his money.

 

Bourn's defensive stats are significantly better defender than Ellsbury, but besides that your points are spot on.

 

The other factor was that there were such a large number of outfielders available last year, and many of them were quality center fielders. Victorino, Bourn, Upton, Revere, Pagan, Choo was traded as a CF, and even Drew Stubbs has given a solid WAR. That's a lot of options. With Choo likely moving back to a corner, and Granderson probably taking a pillow contract, Ellsbury will be the premier CF.

Posted
SFF----and let you be the first guy to tell me to shut my pie-hole of a mouth where Doobie is concerned. I was nervous as hell knowing he was opening up for us against the Angels and that lineup of theirs, but he did a damn good job and as you said I'll take 6.2 innings of winning pitching against that team. A friend on another board informed me that in nearly the last two months his ERA has been 2.87---with the caveat that it was done ugly with walks and a lot of pitches. I think I was concentrating more on the latter and not as much as should have been on the former. Now we have to be sure to win this series. The hat trick would be even better if we could swing it.
Posted
No more of those West Coast death marches. This year the way the team has been playing and their refusal to quit under any circumstances, they have the chance to bury those west coast blues once and for all.
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