Trades before the deadline?

[User Name]

People tell you you have reading comprehension problems because you do. It happens because you don't bother to read what others post and continue to spout your opinion as fact and repeating the same nonsense. Don't play the victim, since you are often guilty of the behaviors you describe above.

[Standing Room]

bringing nothing to the table? C'mon man we have discussed this over and over and over so many times, look at threads, this isn't new at all. We already rest the case sooooooo many times.

 

Sure, You can agree or disagree on this but saying that we haven't brought nothing to the table is not fair.

 

All sarcasm and posturing aside, the issue boils down to this.

 

Is Papelbon so much better than Tazawa that he is worth giving up a top 15 prospect and paying $14 million a year for, in the event that Bailey isn't able to be an effective closer?

 

Yes or No.

[iortiz]

People tell you you have reading comprehension problems because you do. It happens because you don't bother to read what others post and continue to spout your opinion as fact and repeating the same nonsense. Don't play the victim, since you are often guilty of the behaviors you describe above.

 

Playing the victim? Nahhhh man. Not at all.

 

You say that to all that dare to disagree with you. That is a fact too.

[iortiz]

All sarcasm and posturing aside, the issue boils down to this.

 

Is Papelbon so much better than Tazawa that he is worth giving up a top 15 prospect and paying $14 million a year for, in the event that Bailey isn't able to be an effective closer?

 

Yes or No.

 

Yes, and that is my opinion. I already rest my case.

[Standing Room]

Yes, and that is my opinion. I already rest my case.

 

Let's compare the two pitchers then. Here are their numbers since Tazawa returned from TJS as a reliever.

 

Tazawa - 1.89 ERA, 2.63 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 0.94 BB/9, 9.79 K/9, 0.59 HR/9 IP

Papelbon - 2.30 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.03 BB/9, 10.87 K/9, 1.01 HR/9

 

Am I missing something here? Tazawa appears to have performed better. So why is it that Papelbon would be worth a top 15 prospect and $14 million a year?

[a700hitter]

Yes, and that is my opinion. I already rest my case.

I am pretty sure that you answered this in response to SFF's post a page or two back. See below:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/851848-post341.html

 

But somehow, people think that you have reading comprehension problems.

[iortiz]

Let's compare the two pitchers then. Here are their numbers since Tazawa returned from TJS as a reliever.

 

Tazawa - 1.89 ERA, 2.63 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 0.94 BB/9, 9.79 K/9, 0.59 HR/9 IP

Papelbon - 2.30 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.03 BB/9, 10.87 K/9, 1.01 HR/9

 

Am I missing something here? Tazawa appears to have performed better. So why is it that Papelbon would be worth a top 15 prospect and $14 million a year?

 

Do you aware that pitching in the last inning is something else than pitching in the 7th or 8th and mostly in close games and/or pressure situations? Do you? If not, do not keep reading, would be worthless the discussion.

 

My point all along is that Papelbon is not an experiment. He's a stud in that role. Look at his career numbers. IMO He is in that famous Mo's highway . He's been consistent and durable for 9 yrs man, 9! And still young and with a lot experience under his belt ... And not to mention and mostly already proved in your own environment. Notice that I'm not saying that Tazawa couldn't do the job, but to me would be another experiment. He is an unproven closer in the end. I'm not sure about you, but I'm done with experiments. Look what happened with Bard, Aceves, Etc. and in the meantime those experiments and bad decisions had cost us a lot of money-- could have used on Pap's contract--, prospects and most important, wins.

 

Again that is my opinion.

[iortiz]

I am pretty sure that you answered this in response to SFF's post a page or two back. See below:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/851848-post341.html

 

But somehow, people think that you have reading comprehension problems.

 

Well, since he is "new" here I tried to make a compilation of that discussion that started 2 years ago

[Standing Room]

Do you aware that pitching in the last inning is something else than pitching in the 7th or 8th and mostly in close games and/or pressure situations? Do you? If not, do not keep reading, would be worthless the discussion.

 

My point all along is that Papelbon is not an experiment. He's a stud in that role. Look at his career numbers. IMO He is in that famous Mo's highway . He's been consistent and durable for 9 yrs man, 9! And still young and with a lot experience under his belt ... And not to mention and mostly already proved in your own environment. Notice that I'm not saying that Tazawa couldn't do the job, but to me would be another experiment. He is an unproven closer in the end. I'm not sure about you, but I'm done with experiments. Look what happened with Bard, Aceves, Etc. and in the meantime those experiments and bad decisions had cost us a lot of money-- could have used on Pap's contract--, prospects and most important, wins.

 

Again that is my opinion.

 

If you want someone with closing experience, what about Uehara? He also has better numbers than Papelbon, and would not cost $14 million or prospets.

 

Do you have anything to suggest that a solid set up man can't easily become a solid closer? Because I've got plenty of examples that would suggest they can - Grilli, Mujica, Balfour, Frieri, Perkins, Janssen and Holland. Even your boy Papelbon used to pitch in middle relief before Joel Pineiro had a bad outing.

[a700hitter]

Well, since he is "new" here I tried to make a compilation of that discussion that started 2 years ago

He's not new. Dutch has been banned under at least a couple of usernames since Papelbon left the Sox.

[iortiz]

What's different about pitching the 9th inning? Do you have anything to suggest that a solid set up man can't easily become a solid closer? Because I've got plenty of examples that would suggest they can - Grilli, Mujica, Balfour, Frieri, Perkins, Janssen and Holland. Even your boy Papelbon used to pitch in middle relief before Joel Pineiro had a bad outing.

 

What's different? Everything man, everything. The environment is different. The pressure is different. The mentality is different. The batters focus even more when is a close game. Etc. if you do not notice that, sorry but we will agree to disagree.

 

For some reason very few can succeed in the last inning reason why the closer role had become so important and a big difference in order to win more games, mostly considering how tough the competition has turned in recent years in the majors.

 

Again, if you want to experiment with Tazawa, be my guest, I'm not in that band wagon.

[Standing Room]

What's different? Everything man, everything. The environment is different. The pressure is different. The mentality is different. The batters focus even more when is a close game. Etc. if you do not notice that, sorry but we will agree to disagree.

 

For some reason very few can success in the last inning reason why the closer role had become so important and a big difference in order to win more games, mostly considering how tough the competition has turned in recent years in the majors.

 

Again, if you want to experiment with Tazawa, be my guest, I'm not in that band wagon.

 

OK, then what's wrong with Uehara? He has the magical ability to pitch the 9th inning and he has better numbers than Papelbon. Why is Papelbon worth $14 million and a prospect more than Uehara?

[iortiz]

OK, then what's wrong with Uehara? He has the magical ability to pitch the 9th inning and he has better numbers than Papelbon. Why is Papelbon worth $14 million and a prospect more than Uehara?

 

Koji? I like Koji, but cmon man he is another unproven closer. 15 SVs under his belt through 7 yrs doesn't make him a closer.

[Standing Room]

Koji? I like Koji, but cmon man he is another unproven closer. 15 SVs under his belt through 7 yrs doesn't make him a closer.

 

Alright, I can respect that. I disagree with the fundamental principal that there's something special about pitching the 9th inning, many a good reliever (including Papelbon and Rivera) have transitioned seamlessly in to the role. But you've demonstrated that there is at least a thought process behind why you want Papelbon.

[iortiz]

Alright, I can respect that. I disagree with the fundamental principal that there's something special about pitching the 9th inning, many a good reliever (including Papelbon and Rivera) have transitioned seamlessly in to the role. But you've demonstrated that there is at least a thought process behind why you want Papelbon.

 

We can agree to disagree, I have no problem at all with that.

 

In fact, I will be pleased if Bailey bounce back or Tazawa/Koji/Miller turn in a Papelbon 2.0 version.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just to be clear on Tazawa - Here are his career stats in save situations vs that of Pap:

 

(NOTE: I do concede that Taz has only a small sample, but large enough to at least discuss)

 

Games:

 

Taz - 20

Pap - 313

 

Opponents OPS:

 

Taz - .565

Pap - .561

 

WHIP:

 

Taz - 0.787

Pap - 0.998

 

K/9:

 

Taz - 11.07

Pap - 11.01

 

BB/9:

 

Taz - 1.33

Pap - 2.34

 

ERA:

 

Taz - 2.66

Pap - 2.23

 

So, having said all of that, at this point, saying that Tazawa would not be a good option is based on one of two things: 1. Lack of research, or 2. Blind pessimism. His numbers are almost identical to those of Papelbon's.

 

This is not an attack on anyone, I'm just saying, if you're willing to part with prospects for Papelbon, you better be 110% sure that none of your in house options would provide comparable results. Based on the limited sample we have with Tazawa, it appears as though he would.

 

Given his numbers (and 20 G for a closer is ~ 1/3 of a season), it would be a much better option to have Tazawa prove that he can't close rather than assume that he can't.

[User Name]

 

Given his numbers (and 20 G for a closer is ~ 1/3 of a season), it would be a much better option to have Tazawa prove that he can't close rather than assume that he can't.

 

This is the key right here.

[iortiz]

Just to be clear on Tazawa - Here are his career stats in save situations vs that of Pap:

 

(NOTE: I do concede that Taz has only a small sample, but large enough to at least discuss)

 

Games:

 

Taz - 20

Pap - 313

 

Opponents OPS:

 

Taz - .565

Pap - .561

 

WHIP:

 

Taz - 0.787

Pap - 0.998

 

K/9:

 

Taz - 11.07

Pap - 11.01

 

BB/9:

 

Taz - 1.33

Pap - 2.34

 

ERA:

 

Taz - 2.66

Pap - 2.23

 

So, having said all of that, at this point, saying that Tazawa would not be a good option is based on one of two things: 1. Lack of research, or 2. Blind pessimism. His numbers are almost identical to those of Papelbon's.

 

This is not an attack on anyone, I'm just saying, if you're willing to part with prospects for Papelbon, you better be 110% sure that none of your in house options would provide comparable results. Based on the limited sample we have with Tazawa, it appears as though he would.

 

Given his numbers (and 20 G for a closer is ~ 1/3 of a season), it would be a much better option to have Tazawa prove that he can't close rather than assume that he can't.

 

I wouldn't make a case comparing his numbers with Pap since as you said the sample is not comparable.

 

On the other hand I would prefer give Tazawa a chance than keep trying with Bailey.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I wouldn't make a case comparing his numbers with Pap since as you said the sample is not comparable.

 

On the other hand I would prefer give Tazawa a chance than keep trying with Bailey.

 

You can't just completely dismiss it. Before a closer has 313 games under their belt, they have to have 20.

 

In 06, were you saying "I want Pap as closer" or "Go out and get Trevor Hoffman"? Developing key positions internally is the main key to success in today's game.

[User Name]

You can't just completely dismiss it. Before a closer has 313 games under their belt, they have to have 20.

 

In 06, were you saying "I want Pap as closer" or "Go out and get Trevor Hoffman"? Developing key positions internally is the main key to success in today's game.

 

Funny, since the last four WS champions, and most of the teams who have made the playoffs the last four seasons have developed their closer internally. It's the right way to build a bullpen.

[iortiz]

You can't just completely dismiss it. Before a closer has 313 games under their belt, they have to have 20.

 

In 06, were you saying "I want Pap as closer" or "Go out and get Trevor Hoffman"? Developing key positions internally is the main key to success in today's game.

 

Yup, but still incomparable my friend, IMO.

 

I really appreciate what you tried to do, though, I mean it.

 

As I said, hopefully they give him a chance before keep trying with Bailey and becomes the answer.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yup, but still incomparable my friend, IMO.

 

I really appreciate what you tried to do, though, I mean it.

 

As I said, hopefully they give him a chance before keep trying with Bailey and becomes the answer.

 

So, let me ask you this -

 

All things equal (meaning the cost of acquiring him), would you rather 1. Give up the prospects today and go get Papelbon for tonight's game in Detroit, or 2. See what Tazawa has from now until late July, and reassess as to the best course of action?

[a700hitter]

I don't think Tazawa has the raw overpowering stuff to be a closer. He always had good command from an early age, and he has decent secondary pitches. I just don't think he has dominating closer stuff. As for Uehara, I have never understood how he can throw 89 mph fastballs by hitters, but he does. I like him as a late inning arm, but I don't trust his stuff enough to have him close on a regular basis.

 

Miller has overpowering stuff, and when he has his stuff together, he can be untouchable. His problem is having consistent command of his stuff. Of the internal options, he would be the first trial at closer. The second option would be Alex Wilson. I have liked what I have seen from him in his appearances.

[User Name]

Tazawa:

Average fastball velocity: 93.6 MPH

Slider velocity: 82.3

Split velocity: 87.3

 

Papelbon:

 

Average fastball velocity: 92.6

Slider velocity: 76.6

Split velocity: 86.7

 

Tazawa has better "raw stuff" than Papelbon this year, and better stuff than a lot of succesful closers (Nathan, Betancourt for example) actually. Things like this take thirty seconds to look up. Do your research

[SoxFanForsyth]

Miller certainly has better velocity and better swing and miss stuff, but he's also going to carry a huge WHIP and goes throw hiccups where he walks the stadium.

 

Give me a little less velocity and slightly more contact for 1/4 of the BB/9 all day everyday.

[iortiz]

So, let me ask you this -

 

All things equal (meaning the cost of acquiring him), would you rather 1. Give up the prospects today and go get Papelbon for tonight's game in Detroit, or 2. See what Tazawa has from now until late July, and reassess as to the best course of action?

 

 

Well, all depends on which prospects we are talking about. Something around Brentz or Lav as you suggested, I would do it. Something around JBJ or Xander, I would skip.

 

What I would really have done, would have been give him that contract in 2011, but again, that's just me and few others included the Phillies

[Standing Room]

Tazawa:

Average fastball velocity: 93.6 MPH

Slider velocity: 82.3

Split velocity: 87.3

 

Papelbon:

 

Average fastball velocity: 92.6

Slider velocity: 76.6

Split velocity: 86.7

 

Tazawa has better "raw stuff" than Papelbon this year, and better stuff than a lot of succesful closers (Nathan, Betancourt for example) actually. Things like this take thirty seconds to look up. Do your research

 

Yeah, Tazawa has great stuff. I don't know how you watch Tazawa pitch and not think he has great stuff. And the K/9 numbers, the velocity, the vertical and horizontal movement on his pitches all confirm that.

[Standing Room]

Just to be clear on Tazawa - Here are his career stats in save situations vs that of Pap:

 

(NOTE: I do concede that Taz has only a small sample, but large enough to at least discuss)

 

Games:

 

Taz - 20

Pap - 313

 

Opponents OPS:

 

Taz - .565

Pap - .561

 

WHIP:

 

Taz - 0.787

Pap - 0.998

 

K/9:

 

Taz - 11.07

Pap - 11.01

 

BB/9:

 

Taz - 1.33

Pap - 2.34

 

ERA:

 

Taz - 2.66

Pap - 2.23

 

So, having said all of that, at this point, saying that Tazawa would not be a good option is based on one of two things: 1. Lack of research, or 2. Blind pessimism. His numbers are almost identical to those of Papelbon's.

 

This is not an attack on anyone, I'm just saying, if you're willing to part with prospects for Papelbon, you better be 110% sure that none of your in house options would provide comparable results. Based on the limited sample we have with Tazawa, it appears as though he would.

 

Given his numbers (and 20 G for a closer is ~ 1/3 of a season), it would be a much better option to have Tazawa prove that he can't close rather than assume that he can't.

 

Great post. And I think almost all of us are on the same page. iOrtiz disagrees, but he's more of an oldschool guy who wants a proven closer and I don't think anyone's going to change his mind. The topic has been discussed to death at this point, but I have a feeling the next time Papelbon or Bailey have a rough outing it will probably be re-hashed again.

[jung]

No argument from me. I would not be displeased to see some miracle move that brought us a proven starter but I do not want to see the Sox moving prospects what have you to get a closer. Somebody has to do the job...no question but spending prospects and money for a closer is just a bad idea.

 

Injuries and the issues that have plagued some of these players even going into this season are rearing their ugly head and there is still plenty of season left to go. The 162 is truly a death march.

 

Weather the hip or something else, the 162 was always going to be the big question mark for Napoli. Love Nava but that damn wrist of his appears back again to haunt him. I said earlier this year that his improvement in bat speed has been the biggest dif for him and I think that goes out the window with the wrist. Ross is just a bad break and it somewhat offsets Salty's contribution. If he has to catch almost every game, he is going to be worn to s***. Hopefully the Sox can get something out of Lavs.

 

The Sox need to make an effort to get WMB back on track and at least get him to the point where he can contribute something. Now that the regular season is taking its toll, they need more guys to contribute and that means they have to get something out of WMB. If XB can give us something this year, the way things are going for Naps, it would not be a complete surprise to see WMB playing some 1st base if they can get him going with XB and Iggy and Drew sharing 3rd and SS. Carp can play some 1st and will likely see some outfield time as well.

 

I don't think Naps or Nava are going to make it through the season. Nava may make it but not contributing at the level he has so far. Naps may not make it at all. Ross may be done now and Bailey is all but done. Vic will likely be nursing that tender back and the hammy for the rest of the season. Still got my fingers crossed but it is looking more and more like Ortiz can get through the season as long as he does not take a misstep on those ankles.

 

So with the pieces the Sox can bring up and what they have it seems to me that they have to:

Get Buch back on the field

Get something out of WMB

Nurse the pen along shuffling pitchers in and out along the way

Maybe pull some miracle picking up one more proven starter from somewhere

Pray for the September call ups

 

I do think the Sox will end up leaning heavily on the everyday players and pitchers that are already somewhere in the system before it is all over.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tazawa:

Average fastball velocity: 93.6 MPH

Slider velocity: 82.3

Split velocity: 87.3

 

Papelbon:

 

Average fastball velocity: 92.6

Slider velocity: 76.6

Split velocity: 86.7

 

Tazawa has better "raw stuff" than Papelbon this year, and better stuff than a lot of succesful closers (Nathan, Betancourt for example) actually. Things like this take thirty seconds to look up. Do your research

 

Just an FYI, velocity is only a part of raw stuff. I'd want to see movement in there too before jumping to that conclusion