Trades before the deadline?

[rjortiz]

Define "glaring". The Sox have a 4.07 team bullpen ERA. Most of the damage has come against Alfredo Aceves and Clayton Mortensen, who is essentially the one true weak link this BP is dealing with right now.

 

Also, adding fourth and fifth options relievers aren't that costly in terms of prospects. Oliver Perez could probably be had for a Brian Johnson type prospect.

[rjortiz]

AL or MLB?

 

MLB.

[a700hitter]

MLB.

Oh, I think I said "the league". I was referring to the AL. IMO think he is definitely a top 5 hitter in the AL, but it depends on the metric being looked at. I measure a hitter by how tough he is to get out. Mauer has the 5th highest career OBP of all active players. Runs are produced by getting hits and getting on base. Mauer is one of the best. He is still top 5 AL, IMO.

[rjortiz]

Oh, I think I said "the league". I was referring to the AL. IMO think he is definitely a top 5 hitter in the AL, but it depends on the metric being looked at. I measure a hitter by how tough he is to get out. Mauer has the 5th highest career OBP of all active players. Runs are produced by getting hits and getting on base. Mauer is one of the best. He is still top 5 AL, IMO.

 

In that case, I agree with you. 4th in WAR, tied for 6th in RC+, 1st in OBP since 2007. All while catching.

[User Name]

Top 10, yes. Top 5, debatable.

 

I would personally rank Cabrera, Ortiz, Cano, Alex Gordon (severely underrated), Trout, Fielder, and Pedroia as better overall hitters than Mauer right now.

 

And again, rjortiz, as you notice, the fact that he's a catcher is a big reason for his overall value.

[Bellhorn04]

I like Mauer a lot. But he has to be downgraded quite a bit for his mediocre power numbers.

 

Mauer's career averages are pretty close to J. D. Drew's.

[a700hitter]

I like Mauer a lot. But he has to be downgraded quite a bit for his mediocre power numbers.

 

Mauer's career averages are pretty close to J. D. Drew's.

And there was nothing wrong with J.D.'s game. His problem was that he didn't play enough.

[reYoukilis]

Define "glaring". The Sox have a 4.07 team bullpen ERA. Most of the damage has come against Alfredo Aceves and Clayton Mortensen, who is essentially the one true weak link this BP is dealing with right now.

Well its their weak point compared to offense and starting pitching. Don't forget Hanrahan, he maybe did more damage to the ERA than anybody.

[rjortiz]

And again, rjortiz, as you notice, the fact that he's a catcher is a big reason for his overall value.

 

I think he'd still be an elite option at 1B. My only issues with Mauer is whether he'd maintain his value relative to contract going forward, and whether he'd be worth parting with a lot of talent. Maybe if we assumed the contract, we wouldn't have to give up as much. I'd still guess the Twins would want back three quality prospects.

[rjortiz]

Well its their weak point compared to offense and starting pitching. Don't forget Hanrahan, he maybe did more damage to the ERA than anybody.

 

I disagree. Our highest leveraged innings are manned by three elite options. We also have two quality left-handers in Breslow and Miller. The only problem is that we lack a long reliever, and maybe a sixth option. I would hardly call those issues pressing.

 

As it stands right now, our fourth spot in the playoffs would be pitched by Ryan Dempster. I'd rather slide Lackey to that spot, and acquire Cliff Lee.

[User Name]

I think he'd still be an elite option at 1B. My only issues with Mauer is whether he'd maintain his value relative to contract going forward, and whether he'd be worth parting with a lot of talent. Maybe if we assumed the contract, we wouldn't have to give up as much. I'd still guess the Twins would want back three quality prospects.

 

At least two teams (one of them being the Sox) have unsuccessfully tried to obtain Mauer by absorbing the totality of his contract. Thus far, the Twins aren't interested in that trade scenario.

 

Also, i highly doubt Mauer could be an "elite" 1B with his mediocre power. Positional standards exist for a reason.

[User Name]

I disagree. Our highest leveraged innings are manned by three elite options. We also have two quality left-handers in Breslow and Miller. The only problem is that we lack a long reliever, and maybe a sixth option. I would hardly call those issues pressing.

 

As it stands right now, our fourth spot in the playoffs would be pitched by Ryan Dempster. I'd rather slide Lackey to that spot, and acquire Cliff Lee.

 

Agree with the first point, disagree with the second. Lee is just not a realistic option for this team, with the money he's owed, his age, and the prospects it would take to pry him loose from Philly. That type of "win-now" move is exactly the reason 2012 ended up happening.

[SoxSport]

I disagree. Our highest leveraged innings are manned by three elite options. We also have two quality left-handers in Breslow and Miller. The only problem is that we lack a long reliever, and maybe a sixth option. I would hardly call those issues pressing.

 

As it stands right now, our fourth spot in the playoffs would be pitched by Ryan Dempster. I'd rather slide Lackey to that spot, and acquire Cliff Lee.

 

Dempster needs 10 runs to win. Lackey has been better. Hard to see Lee traded, but they have the ponies to get him. The Yankees would give the moon for him.

 

The other night, Farrell lost a game because he threw Morales and Mortenson into a high leverage situation--a mistake. Sometimes you need your best an inning or so earlier than usual. Mortenson continues to lead a charmed life. The man without an option.

[MJantomaso]

What's wrong with bringing in Morales? Then when the game started to get out of hand they brought in Mort. Why put in a key bullpen arm down 4 runs first game of the series?

[jung]

Remember guys, that was a double header day. It looked to me like much of what Farrell did was based on knowing Felix was very likely to leave innings to be pitched cause he has all year long. I suspect he wanted to give Frankie a shot to pick Felix up and would have likely used the bullpen differently in game one if they had stayed in that game. I really don't think Farrell knew for sure what he could get out of Frankie under the circumstances but I can't think of a better situation to use to try to find out. As it was, Frankie did not get it done. However in the end, the Sox ended up with the split. Winning both ends of a DH is not easy in this year of no days off. Really not sure why Farrell used as many guys as he did in game 1 after the horse was outta' the barn. Not sure it mattered in the end.

 

I do not think I have seen a season with fewer days off for all the teams. We are off on another seven straight days on the road right now, playing and traveling on the same day per usual.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Agree with the first point, disagree with the second. Lee is just not a realistic option for this team, with the money he's owed, his age, and the prospects it would take to pry him loose from Philly. That type of "win-now" move is exactly the reason 2012 ended up happening.

 

This is a very extremist point of view.

 

One of the biggest advantages of having prospect depth is not so you can watch some succeed and some fizzle. It's so that you can use them as pieces in deals that make your team competitive while not mortgaging the future.

 

If the Red Sox give up Webster and Cecchini for Lee, they still have RDLR, Barnes, Workman, Ranaudo, Owens, and now Ball all coming through the system for SP depth.

 

You don't just hoard prospects, you utilize them to get proven pieces.

 

Adrian Gonzalez wasn't the reason we had 2012. Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Bobby Valentine are the reasons we had 2012. And Josh Beckett also led us to a WS Championship in 07, too, so dishing HanRam and Anibal Sanchez for him and Lowell wasn't a bad deal either.

[User Name]

How is it an extremist point of view? Explain your definition of "extremist".

 

What i'm saying is that Lee is a guy you're only going to be able to control medium term, at big money, for prospects and who's, well, pretty old.

 

If you're going to move significant pieces and money it should be for in-its-prime talent. I don't know how you reached the conclusions of "extremist" and "talent hoarding". I would certainly be singing a different tune if the available pitcher was Felix, or a guy like Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner. And mind you, it's not even a certainty that Lee IS available with the Phillies hovering around .500, they may have delusions of making the playoffs.

[SoxFanForsyth]

How is it an extremist point of view? Explain your definition of "extremist".

 

What i'm saying is that Lee is a guy you're only going to be able to control medium term, at big money, for prospects and who's, well, pretty old.

 

If you're going to move significant pieces and money it should be for in-its-prime talent. I don't know how you reached the conclusions of "extremist" and "talent hoarding". I would certainly be singing a different tune if the available pitcher was Felix, or a guy like Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner. And mind you, it's not even a certainty that Lee IS available with the Phillies hovering around .500, they may have delusions of making the playoffs.

 

It comes across as extremist because it sounds like you're not willing to take on any more big salaries, because you're gunshy after seeing a couple big contracts blow up in our face last year. Lee is still very much an elite talent.

 

He's got a 2.55 era, 5.19 K:BB ratio, and looks as strong as ever right now. Generally speaking, I agree you don't want to pick up the last 3 years of an aging pitchers salary, but Lee is one of those special talents who seemingly only gets better with age.

 

It seems like a lot of people are afraid of getting burnt by big contracts because of what happened, but you have to take gambles. I know the Sox were very much in on Lee this past offseason, and I certainly think they'll be checking in on him at the deadline. Whether or not he's available, who knows, but they certainly should check on him.

 

You definitely have to pick your spots, but they built this prospect depth and left themself with a lot of financial flexibility (almost 30mm from the cap right now) so that they could make that move to give this team a really good chance at winning a championship. And if you don't think that a rotation of Buch Lee Lester puts this team as a WS favorite (for this year and next year as well, and potentially 2015), that's crazy.

 

Not to mention by the time his salary may start to hurt (2015), you've got Ortiz and Lackey off the books, all while giving yourself a really good shot at winning a lot of games and a World Series title for the next 2-3 years, and not mortgaging your future.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And just to be clear, UN, I really do like reading your posts and point of view on these things, so don't take any of these arguments as anything personal, you're one of the posters I enjoy conversing with. Just wanted to be clear on that so as not to give you the wrong impression.

[User Name]

My problem is taking on big salaries for players who are: A) Past their prime, B ) Have some sort of checkered injury history, C ) Derive part of their value from playing in a position they could not stay on.

 

If you wanted to trade half the farm for a guy like Hernandez, Kershaw, Machado (not that it will ever happen), Darvish, Alex Gordon, etc. i'd be all for it.

 

But Lee and Mauer both have a prohibitive salary and question marks surrounding them that make them a risk that this franchise should not be willing to take.

[rjortiz]

My problem is taking on big salaries for players who are: A) Past their prime, B ) Have some sort of checkered injury history, C ) Derive part of their value from playing in a position they could not stay on.

 

If you wanted to trade half the farm for a guy like Hernandez, Kershaw, Machado (not that it will ever happen), Darvish, Alex Gordon, etc. i'd be all for it.

 

But Lee and Mauer both have a prohibitive salary and question marks surrounding them that make them a risk that this franchise should not be willing to take.

 

If Lee was on a one year deal would you make a trade for him?

[User Name]

If Lee was on a one year deal would you make a trade for him?

 

Yup. I'd take on his remaining salary and ship away two middling prospects.

[Behindenemylines]

My problem is taking on big salaries for players who are: A) Past their prime, B ) Have some sort of checkered injury history, C ) Derive part of their value from playing in a position they could not stay on.

 

If you wanted to trade half the farm for a guy like Hernandez, Kershaw, Machado (not that it will ever happen), Darvish, Alex Gordon, etc. i'd be all for it.

 

But Lee and Mauer both have a prohibitive salary and question marks surrounding them that make them a risk that this franchise should not be willing to take.

 

I agree. Watching the Angels play the Sox today and the lack of production from Pujols and Hamilton, and their big contracts will hurt them moving forward. Don't want to see the Sox get hosed by one of these big contracts from a player who has question marks surrounding them.

[MJantomaso]

If Carp continues to hit like he has all season, what do you think of him for the future? Could we consider him a cheap option for 1b?

[redsoxfan3]

If Carp continues to hit like he has all season, what do you think of him for the future? Could we consider him a cheap option for 1b?

 

I don't know about him as a cheap option for 1B if it comes to him being the full-time starter. I think a realistic option as a backup 1B and backup LF is more realistic, like his current role. His career numbers suggest that he would probably not be able to hit the way he has so far this year over an entire season. He hasn't played in more than 79 games in a season before. He has a 1.048 OPS this year, but his career OPS is .782.

 

We are fortunate to get the kind of production that we have from him so far this year. I think he could be an effective and cheap option as a role player like he has been this year. I don't know if you were thinking about him being an everyday starter at 1B when you are talking about him as a cheap option at 1B or not. I would want someone that has proven to be more consistent as my everyday first baseman.

 

It might be worth a gamble if it is the only option we have, but I think we can do better than Carp being our starting 1B. I love the way he has played for us this year, and it seems like it is working out for him. Not to mention he is only 26. He is the type of player that we need to have around if someone were to get injured. Fortunately, we have been able to rely on him in LF thanks to Nava being able to hold down the fort in RF without Victorino. I think his playing time will start to decrease now, especially with Victorino back and Nava probably going to get the majority of the playing time in LF, with Gomes and Carp filling in when necessary.

[User Name]

Carp should see more time against tough righties at 1B spelling Napoli. You also never know when Victorino will crash against a wall or Jacoby will have some sort of injury problem as well. He'll play.

[MJantomaso]

I don't know about him as a cheap option for 1B if it comes to him being the full-time starter. I think a realistic option as a backup 1B and backup LF is more realistic, like his current role. His career numbers suggest that he would probably not be able to hit the way he has so far this year over an entire season. He hasn't played in more than 79 games in a season before. He has a 1.048 OPS this year, but his career OPS is .782.

 

We are fortunate to get the kind of production that we have from him so far this year. I think he could be an effective and cheap option as a role player like he has been this year. I don't know if you were thinking about him being an everyday starter at 1B when you are talking about him as a cheap option at 1B or not. I would want someone that has proven to be more consistent as my everyday first baseman.

 

It might be worth a gamble if it is the only option we have, but I think we can do better than Carp being our starting 1B. I love the way he has played for us this year, and it seems like it is working out for him. Not to mention he is only 26. He is the type of player that we need to have around if someone were to get injured. Fortunately, we have been able to rely on him in LF thanks to Nava being able to hold down the fort in RF without Victorino. I think his playing time will start to decrease now, especially with Victorino back and Nava probably going to get the majority of the playing time in LF, with Gomes and Carp filling in when necessary.

 

I reall take his past numbers with a grain of salt. He was an inexperianced platoon player on a terrible team. He's only 26 years old, beautiful swing, and makes solid contact consistently. These aren't bloops or seeing eye singles. This kid can rake, along with his pretty decent plate discipline. I'm not putting all chips in his basket right now but if he continues to play like he has, it should be something to look into.

[SoxSport]

A lot of media people think Ells will get dealt. Partly because Bradley is heir apparent who looks ready, and partly because Ells' agent is the shark Boras. Bradley, by the way, also has Boras as his agent, but he is protected until 2019 or thereabouts.

[SoxSport]

The Angels have been hurt by Weaver going down. They'll be better if he can get back to form. It's clear, though, they continue to underspend on pitching. Pujols was a horrible signing--worse than Hamilton. The guy is declining--evident even when he was in St Louis. It was a reckless signing for 10 years. A waste of all that TV money.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, Pujols was an incredibly stupid contract. The Angels could see the A-Rod disaster unfolding right in front of them and they chose to copy it anyway.