Shoring Up the Rotation

[BSN07]

how do you know?

 

Because your on talksox and they are paid 6 figure salaries to run a multi million dollar business.

 

Should you be the CEO of Mcdonalds just because you eat there everyday and know the dollar menu by heart?

[Palodios]

It seems that Buchholz's collarbone/shoulder soreness is lingering longer than expected.

 

I would rather they baby Buchholz and see him throw 160-180 innings than to see him get hurt and pitch 110, and miss the playoffs. Cy Youngs are fun, but its not worth hurting the team's playoff chances for one.

[wyo-sox]

Because your on talksox and they are paid 6 figure salaries to run a multi million dollar business.

 

Should you be the CEO of Mcdonalds just because you eat there everyday and know the dollar menu by heart?

 

That's funny.

[MJantomaso]

how do you know?

 

Bc you complaining about sending Aceves down. Only a moron would want to keep Aceves up after 1 quality start. If you have watched any of his outing you would notice that he has been absolute s***. Almost as s***** as your point of views on things. Its hard to take someone serious when they base their opinions on 1 game.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about sending Aceves down is, now that he showed he can be a #6 starter, they probably want to maintain him as a starter, and he can only do that at Pawtucket until he's needed again.

[jung]

The thing about sending Aceves down is, now that he showed he can be a #6 starter, they probably want to maintain him as a starter, and he can only do that at Pawtucket until he's needed again.

 

I think this is their real motivation for sending him down. In fact I even think they are doing Aceves something of a favor. He is getting paid based on the terms of a contract so he is not losing any money. If they can keep him coming back for spot starts that is likely the very best way for him to prove that he can be in a ML rotation for somebody. I think Ace has made it fairly clear that a rotation job is really what he wants.

[Standing Room]

PHILADELPHIA — Clay Buchholz threw in the bullpen at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon and felt no pain in the AC joint of his right shoulder. John Farrell said Buchholz is tentatively scheduled to start against the Yankees on Sunday.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Mike Axisa said today in his weekly chat that he thinks the Sox will land Cliff Lee. He says they'll probably trade Webster + Cecchini + another prospect which I assume means a lower leveler.

 

I can't imagine them trading Webster though. I would have to think that, perhaps if Ranaudo keeps dominating, they trade him instead if Webby.Then again, Webster has fallen off quite a bit in terms of command.

 

What are your thoughts? If they do make that deal, you gotta think they would be in great shape to take the AL East and make a deep deep run. That top 3 would be as good as any in baseball, and Lackey is no bum in the 4 slot.

 

I also think once De La Rosa hits around 75 innings he comes up and takes Mortensons slot in the pen.

[a700hitter]

Mike Axisa said today in his weekly chat that he thinks the Sox will land Cliff Lee. He says they'll probably trade Webster + Cecchini + another prospect which I assume means a lower leveler.

 

I can't imagine them trading Webster though. I would have to think that, perhaps if Ranaudo keeps dominating, they trade him instead if Webby.Then again, Webster has fallen off quite a bit in terms of command.

 

What are your thoughts? If they do make that deal, you gotta think they would be in great shape to take the AL East and make a deep deep run. That top 3 would be as good as any in baseball, and Lackey is no bum in the 4 slot.

 

I also think once De La Rosa hits around 75 innings he comes up and takes Mortensons slot in the pen.

Does he have any basis for thinking this (i.e. meetings or conference calls between team execs for Sox and Phils) or is it something that just thinks would make sense?

[User Name]

no ways. Jim Johnson is going to blow a lot of games this year...

 

I just found this post an, wow. Nostrkapsis

 

This was discussion about the Orioles' luck in one-run games mind you.

[Orange Juiced]

Mike Axisa said today in his weekly chat that he thinks the Sox will land Cliff Lee. He says they'll probably trade Webster + Cecchini + another prospect which I assume means a lower leveler.

 

I can't imagine them trading Webster though. I would have to think that, perhaps if Ranaudo keeps dominating, they trade him instead if Webby.Then again, Webster has fallen off quite a bit in terms of command.

 

What are your thoughts? If they do make that deal, you gotta think they would be in great shape to take the AL East and make a deep deep run. That top 3 would be as good as any in baseball, and Lackey is no bum in the 4 slot.

 

I also think once De La Rosa hits around 75 innings he comes up and takes Mortensons slot in the pen.

 

I'm intrigued with the Cliff Lee talk. In the last 6 seasons, all he's done is this:

 

77-44

2.85 era

144 era+

1.09 whip

7.9 k/9

 

Dude has been ridiculously good. Contract is very steep, though, and that could be a problem. But the Sox would have him under control through 2016 for just over $100 million the rest of the way. I don't know whether it would be good or bad to have him under control at that cost for that length of time. But wow, if he could give you a few more years at the level he's given the past few, he would give the Sox just an unbelievably good rotation: Lee, Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, and Lackey. That's tremendous, and the top 3 would be excellent for the post season.

 

I don't love the idea of giving up Webster, but Cliff Lee is a guy you'd want to go get if you had a serious chance at the title. Which they probably would with him on the team.

[Rdsxmbnt]

No way I'd trade both Webster and Cecchini for Lee, if we're trading that much it better be for a young pitcher (IE when the Red Sox got a 25 year old Beckett).

 

The Red Sox are in an amazing position right now. They have a first place MLB team, a top 5 (probably even better now) farm system, and zero unmovable contracts. Makes no sense to mortgage that future for a 25mil a year aging pitcher no matter how good he is.

[Orange Juiced]

No way I'd trade both Webster and Cecchini for Lee, if we're trading that much it better be for a young pitcher (IE when the Red Sox got a 25 year old Beckett).

 

The Red Sox are in an amazing position right now. They have a first place MLB team, a top 5 (probably even better now) farm system, and zero unmovable contracts. Makes no sense to mortgage that future for a 25mil a year aging pitcher no matter how good he is.

 

I would agree that "mortgaging the future" would be a bad idea. However, if their farm system truly is top 5, then they have a LOT of assets available, so they should be able to make this kind of a trade *without* mortgaging the future.

[Standing Room]

I would trade that for Cliff Lee. It's pretty rare a pitcher of his caliber is on the trading block when they're under contract for an additional three years. It beats the hell out of anything available on the free agent market both in talent and in value.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I would agree that "mortgaging the future" would be a bad idea. However, if their farm system truly is top 5, then they have a LOT of assets available, so they should be able to make this kind of a trade *without* mortgaging the future.

 

I think when you factor in price it just becomes way too high a cost. For 25-30 mil the Sox could potentially sign two of Garza/Choo/McCann (just examples) as free agents this offseason and still have two top 30 prospects in Webster and Cecchini. Seems like much better value and creates way more depth. The way to truly build a dynasty here is to stop making short sighted trades and develop talent internally. Not every prospect is gonna make it but the more you have the greater the chances you have.

[User Name]

I would trade that for Cliff Lee. It's pretty rare a pitcher of his caliber is on the trading block when they're under contract for an additional three years. It beats the hell out of anything available on the free agent market both in talent and in value.

 

Define "value" in this instance. He'll be the wrong side of 30 AND making 25 per for those three years.

 

A study was done not long ago about pitchers who have managed 200 IP season in both their age 35 and 36 years. The list is rather short.

 

Sometimes you need to look past star power and realize that the possibility of sudden decline for a pitcher of that age is not only possible, but likely. Look at Halladay for a prime example.

 

I'd love Lee, but not trading two top prospects and absorbing his whole salary too. I'd trade for him under one of those scenarios.

[Standing Room]

Define "value" in this instance. He'll be the wrong side of 30 AND making 25 per for those three years.

 

A study was done not long ago about pitchers who have managed 200 IP season in both their age 35 and 36 years. The list is rather short.

 

Sometimes you need to look past star power and realize that the possibility of sudden decline for a pitcher of that age is not only possible, but likely. Look at Halladay for a prime example.

 

I'd love Lee, but not trading two top prospects and absorbing his whole salary too. I'd trade for him under one of those scenarios.

 

By value, I mean worth more than they're being paid. He's been worth $27.96 million a year over the last five seasons, if he were to hit the free agent market he'd make more than his current salary. I'm not too worried about his age, he's a finesse pitcher.

[User Name]

By value, I mean worth more than they're being paid. He's been worth $27.96 million a year over the last five seasons, if he were to hit the free agent market he'd make more than his current salary. I'm not too worried about his age, he's a finesse pitcher.

 

I understand that, the point was that he may not be able to keep providing the same amount of value over the next three years. And when we're talking about a pitcher's longevity, not being a hard thrower helps maintain effectiveness longer, that is true. The problem is that there are not a lot of examples of guys who maintained that level of performance into their late 30's. Lee may be one of the exceptions. But at two upper-level prospects and twenty five per, that's a big gamble on mere possibility.

[a700hitter]

Cherries hasn't shown an inclination toward big splashy moves. I don't see him making a deal like this, regardless of the prospects involved.

[Standing Room]

I understand that, the point was that he may not be able to keep providing the same amount of value over the next three years. And when we're talking about a pitcher's longevity, not being a hard thrower helps maintain effectiveness longer, that is true. The problem is that there are not a lot of examples of guys who maintained that level of performance into their late 30's. Lee may be one of the exceptions. But at two upper-level prospects and twenty five per, that's a big gamble on mere possibility.

 

Are there any other top of the rotation starters that you feel like we could acquire for less? Or are you suggesting we trade for a hitter or perhaps stand pat?

[User Name]

Are there any other top of the rotation starters that you feel like we could acquire for less? Or are you suggesting we trade for a hitter or perhaps stand pat?

 

As things are right now, i'd stand pat. But depending how things unfold in the OF for the next 4-6 weeks, a trade for an OFer might be a good idea.

[Standing Room]

As things are right now, i'd stand pat. But depending how things unfold in the OF for the next 4-6 weeks, a trade for an OFer might be a good idea.

 

Yes, I would stand pat at this point too. I was talking about down the road if Lee was available in July, I would be willing to give up that price if he still made sense. Who knows what we'll look like in a couple months.

[User Name]

Yes, I would stand pat at this point too. I was talking about down the road if Lee was available in July, I would be willing to give up that price if he still made sense. Who knows what we'll look like in a couple months.

 

They way i see it, i don't think Lee will be available come July, and this team's biggest need will be offense and not pitching.

 

Of course, with baseball you never know. Next thing you know Napoli, WMB and Gomes break out, and you're leading the league in runs socred, but Dempster/Lackey implode and you desperately need a starter.

[Standing Room]

They way i see it, i don't think Lee will be available come July, and this team's biggest need will be offense and not pitching.

 

Of course, with baseball you never know. Next thing you know Napoli, WMB and Gomes break out, and you're leading the league in runs socred, but Dempster/Lackey implode and you desperately need a starter.

 

Yeah, I think people expecting Lee to be available are jumping the gun. Anything could happen, but I'd be surprised if our offense is an issue. We're second in the majors with a .339 wOBA on the year and we've had a steady .339 wOBA in each month of the season. Lefties, we have struggled to hit a bit this year. But I don't think that will be an issue once Middlebrooks, Victorino and Gomes are healthy and see their splits against lefthanders revert towards their normal career trends. I also love Iglesias against lefthanders, he's killed them so far in the majors.

 

Our pitching ranks slightly worse. Among AL teams, our pitching is 6th in WAR and 3rd in xFIP. Those are some pretty good numbers, so I hardly think it's time to panic. But the inconsistency we've seen lately from Lester and Dempster is concerning, and it's too early to tell what we'll get from Doubront.

 

Then again, we have prospects that could fill holes on our pitching staff and in our lineup. Jackie Bradley Jr. could help stabilize the outfield, Jose Iglesias could help us hit lefthanders, Webster, De La Rosa or Ranaudo could fill a rotation spot. Our needs in July will probably have a lot to do with which one of those prospects pan out this year and which ones struggle. Or which one of our regulars has a serious injury.

[Orange Juiced]

I think when you factor in price it just becomes way too high a cost. For 25-30 mil the Sox could potentially sign two of Garza/Choo/McCann (just examples) as free agents this offseason and still have two top 30 prospects in Webster and Cecchini. Seems like much better value and creates way more depth. The way to truly build a dynasty here is to stop making short sighted trades and develop talent internally. Not every prospect is gonna make it but the more you have the greater the chances you have.

 

Who were the key players in the Red Sox' 2004 championship?

 

- Pedro Martinez - acquired by trading away prospects

- Curt Schilling - acquired by trading away prospects

- Keith Foulke - free agent signing

- David Ortiz - acquired by trade

- Manny Ramirez - free agent signing

- Jason Varitek - acquired by trade

- Bill Mueller - free agent signing

 

Etc. In other words, they didn't exactly develop that team from "within". They used many of their prospects to acquire top talent like Pedro and Schilling.

 

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Just have to use your resources wisely. They traded away Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez and got back Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell...two guys without whom they wouldn't have won the 2007 World Series. Would we want those two guys back now? Absolutely. But they got a ring out of it.

 

I'm not saying empty the farm. I love seeing prospects come up through the system and do well with the Sox. But I also know they are a valuable commodity that can be used to acquire other pieces that can help even more. Cliff Lee's contract and age are concerns, but there's zero question that he is one of the finest pitchers in all of baseball, and right now, he'd help this team immensely.

[User Name]

David Ortiz was a Free Agent signing.

[a700hitter]

There's an article in the Globe today that says Lester is trending down after his fast starts. I looked at his numbers and was surprised to see that his k/9 innings is at last year's levels which were down substantially from his peak. I wonder if he has found the 3 inches of movement that he lost on his cutter from 2010. What do you guys think? Was yesterday the Lester we will see for most of the office?

[rjortiz]

Phillies don't really need to trade Lee. They aren't terrible, and they have some salary coming off the books. I have to believe that the Phillies would want two elite prospects, and all of Lee's salary. I don't think Red Sox should make a major splash. We'd be paying Lee, Dempster, and Lackey almost $55 million next year. We also have to extend Buchholz and Lester. I think renting someone like Garza would be the wiser move.

[Station 13]

His swinging strike has gone down every year, while the contact rates has climb. He needs to find the feel for an offspeed pitch back, otherwise he is too predictable. I wouldn't resign him after next year if the market calls for a 5/90M to retain him.

[rjortiz]

Maybe we could swap Lester plus one prospect for Lee.