2013 Spring Training

[SoxFanForsyth]

I have never accused you of being crazy-- just very optimisitic.

 

I am not the only one that thinks 6 AL teams are better than us. Here are the Vegas odds as of today:

 

Here is the full list of odds to win the 2013 World Series, along with odds to win the NL and AL pennants.

 

2013 WORLD SERIES

 

ANGELS 7-1

DODGERS 7-1

TIGERS 7-1

NATIONALS 8-1

BLUE JAYS 10-1

REDS 12-1

YANKEES 14-1

BRAVES 14-1

PHILLIES 14-1

GIANTS 14-1

CARDINALS 14-1

RAYS 16-1

RANGERS 18-1

A'S 30-1

RED SOX 30-1

WHITE SOX 40-1

ROYALS 40-1

DIAMONDBACKS 50-1

ORIOLES 50-1

PIRATES 50-1

CUBS 50-1

BREWERS 60-1

MARINERS 80-1

Guardians 80-1

METS 100-1

PADRES 100-1

TWINS 100-1

ROCKIES 100-1

MARLINS 300-1

ASTROS 300-1

 

Teams built for the WS =/= teams built for the regular season. The Sox can get through a 90 win season with their rotation. But when they have to face Verlander and the Tigers in a short series, they're in really bad shape.

[a700hitter]

So, I just want to be 100% clear here.

 

You think 69 wins + 10 wins for BP + 5 wins for Lester = 84 Wins. Lackey is a wash with Beckett, so that's no improvement. You award 5 wins for Lester, who would likely go from a 9-14, 4.82 ERA to a 14-8, 3.50 ERA, correct?

 

Yet, you award zero wins for Dempster, who is replacing Cook/Dice/Stewart, who went 5-20 in 31 starts and had a combined 7.12 ERA.

 

I see zero logic in that last part. Dempster over that garbage is worth at least 6 wins.

Wins will not correlate to the changes as directly and precisely as you are expecting. These numbers are very loose. Bottom line is I expect 79-84 wins. The only reason I expect some improvement is because we added talent to the pen. All the rest is a wash or worse. Your numbers will not translate to wins with such a direct correlation. Vegas and all other objective authorities view us as a 4th place or last place team.

[mvp 78]

Fundamental misunderstanding of how Vegas makes odds...

[a700hitter]

No misunderstanding. Suffice to say that teams that are in the middle of the pack or below at the opening odds are not thought to be very good. There is no action at the time the initial odds are set to sway the odds. The initial odd setting is based on an evaluation of the relative strengths of the teams.

[a700hitter]

The other authorities referred to that have picked us at the bottom of the pile are not oddsmakers.

[Behindenemylines]

Most people are picking the Sox for 4th or 5th in their division. If that is the case then winning 90 can not happen since we play the teams in our division so much. Even if we finish in 3rd place winning 90 would be very tough. Thats just the math. We can hope that one or two of the teams picked above us blow up and have season like the 2012 Sox. It would be fun to see the $panks go through that. The bottom line the Sox have to have a lot of things go right to sniff 90 wins.

[Lucienbel]

Most people are picking the Sox for 4th or 5th in their division. If that is the case then winning 90 can not happen since we play the teams in our division so much. Even if we finish in 3rd place winning 90 would be very tough. Thats just the math. We can hope that one or two of the teams picked above us blow up and have season like the 2012 Sox. It would be fun to see the $panks go through that. The bottom line the Sox have to have a lot of things go right to sniff 90 wins.

 

90 wins may be a bit much. I still have faith that this team can do well if everything falls right for them, but 90 wins may be a stretch.

 

With that said, I'm getting excited for Spring Training. The offseason always seems so long and I can never keep myself amused enough without baseball. Whatever this team ends up being, I am happy that they'll be more fun to watch than last year. In general it seems like the club house will be a lot more positive. That always makes for a more fun to watch team.

[iortiz]

I have never accused you of being crazy-- just very optimisitic.

 

I am not the only one that thinks 6 AL teams are better than us. Here are the Vegas odds as of today:

 

Here is the full list of odds to win the 2013 World Series, along with odds to win the NL and AL pennants.

 

2013 WORLD SERIES

 

ANGELS 7-1

DODGERS 7-1

TIGERS 7-1

NATIONALS 8-1

BLUE JAYS 10-1

REDS 12-1

YANKEES 14-1

BRAVES 14-1

PHILLIES 14-1

GIANTS 14-1

CARDINALS 14-1

RAYS 16-1

RANGERS 18-1

A'S 30-1

RED SOX 30-1

WHITE SOX 40-1

ROYALS 40-1

DIAMONDBACKS 50-1

ORIOLES 50-1

PIRATES 50-1

CUBS 50-1

BREWERS 60-1

MARINERS 80-1

Guardians 80-1

METS 100-1

PADRES 100-1

TWINS 100-1

ROCKIES 100-1

MARLINS 300-1

ASTROS 300-1

 

Seems like we are in a worst position than last year.

[BSN07]

http://http://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/299547863556448258/photo/1

 

Lackey has definitely switched to Bud Light

 

Btw I loaded this from my phone, so I may have messed it up

[mvp 78]

http://http://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/299547863556448258/photo/1

 

Lackey has definitely switched to Bud Light

 

Btw I loaded this from my phone, so I may have messed it up

 

It's always been Bud Light. He probably has just cut back, or works out more.

[mvp 78]

 

What a crappy game thread this was. I'm sure A700 remembers...

[Palodios]

http://http://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/299547863556448258/photo/1

 

Lackey has definitely switched to Bud Light

 

Btw I loaded this from my phone, so I may have messed it up

 

This is the best one I've seen so far:

 

https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/299539026409574400/photo/1

 

Its crazy how much weight he lost. I know Lackey is just some big PR move, but even some of the critics like a700 and Fred have to hand it to him.

[a700hitter]

This is the best one I've seen so far:

 

https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/299539026409574400/photo/1

 

Its crazy how much weight he lost. I know Lackey is just some big PR move, but even some of the critics like a700 and Fred have to hand it to him.

I can't count how many times some over the hill player showed up in camp after losing a ton of weight and everyone got their hopes up that he would recapture his youth. Almost none of them do, but almost all of them recapture the weight eventually.

[a700hitter]

I do remember the thread where Bud Light was being blamed for Lackey stinking.

[Palodios]

I can't count how many times some over the hill player showed up in camp after losing a ton of weight and everyone got their hopes up that he would recapture his youth. Almost none of them do, but almost all of them recapture the weight eventually.

 

I didn't say you had to expect good things from him. I just meant that you had to hand it to a guy who lost like 50 pounds

[jung]

Heck Red Sox pitchers have to lose weight in the off season so that they are ready for the tonnage they are going to put on under the watchful eyes of the Sox conditioning coaches and various and sundry other Sox entities. I think I have finally concluded that the Sox conditioning coaches are actually all chefs from various local restaurants, brought in by management to treat the players in the style to which they have grown accustomed.

[a700hitter]

I didn't say you had to expect good things from him. I just meant that you had to hand it to a guy who lost like 50 pounds

Yes, he does deserve credit for losing the 50 lbs. How did he do it? Was he on Dancing with the Horse-faced Stars?

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Lackey looks like he has cancer

[a700hitter]

Lackey looks like he is a cancer

I corrected your post^

[VA Sox Fan]

Lackey looks like he has cancer

 

I corrected your post^

 

:lol:

[seabeachfred]

There's a lot of Lackey being hurled here and about but I think the key is whether crybaby Lester and nervous nelly Buchholz will get their s*** together and give us a credible one-two punch on the hill so we can get out of the outhouse this season. As I've said before, I really think Lackey will surprise a lot of us but without a solid Jon and Clay we are in trouble before we start.

[Palodios]

There's a lot of Lackey being hurled here and about but I think the key is whether crybaby Lester and nervous nelly Buchholz will get their s*** together and give us a credible one-two punch on the hill so we can get out of the outhouse this season. As I've said before, I really think Lackey will surprise a lot of us but without a solid Jon and Clay we are in trouble before we start.

 

I don't know about everyone else... but spring training has made me feel much better about the rotation. Pretty much the entire pitching staff was already in florida atleast a week earlier-- some longer. These guys are dedicated to pitching better this year. Whether that will turn into results is yet to be seen, but the attitude is significantly improved over what we saw last year, and I like to believe that when talented people work hard in life, they succeed.

[a700hitter]

I don't know about everyone else... but spring training has made me feel much better about the rotation. Pretty much the entire pitching staff was already in florida atleast a week earlier-- some longer. These guys are dedicated to pitching better this year. Whether that will turn into results is yet to be seen, but the attitude is significantly improved over what we saw last year, and I like to believe that when talented people work hard in life, they succeed.

The real rub for me is that I don't see a high talent level on this staff, question marks aside. Other than the top 2, I don't see a lot of talent. The top 2 will have to win virtually every time they take the ball to keep this team competitive.

[rjortiz]

Lackey looks like he has cancer

 

[mvp 78]

Haha, hoho, cancer jokes! So funny!

[SoxFanForsyth]

Quick update on the NESN scheduling for the ST Games:

 

NESN will televise 14 Red Sox games during spring training. Here is the schedule:

 

Feb. 23 vs. Rays, 1:30 p.m.

Feb. 27 at Orioles, 7 p.m.

March 1 vs. Pirates, 7 p.m.

March 3 vs. Yankees, 1:30 p.m.

March 8 vs. Twins, 7 p.m.

March 9 vs. Orioles, 7 p.m.

March 10 at Rays, 1 p.m.

March 15 vs. Twins, 7 p.m.

March 17 vs. Rays, 1 :30 p.m.

March 21 vs. Phillies, 7 p.m. (NESN Plus)

March 23 vs. Pirates, 1:30 p.m.

March 24 at Phillies, 1 p.m.

March 28 vs. Twins, 7 p.m.

March 30 vs Twins, 1:30 p.m. (NESN Plus)

 

NESN will start 11 consecutive days of "Red Sox Live" from Fort Myers on Feb. 10. The show, hosted by Tom Caron, will feature Peter Gammons along with Sox players, coaches, and executives.

[SoxSport]

There's a lot of Lackey being hurled here and about but I think the key is whether crybaby Lester and nervous nelly Buchholz will get their s*** together and give us a credible one-two punch on the hill so we can get out of the outhouse this season. As I've said before, I really think Lackey will surprise a lot of us but without a solid Jon and Clay we are in trouble before we start.

 

yup.

[seabeachfred]

I don't know about everyone else... but spring training has made me feel much better about the rotation. Pretty much the entire pitching staff was already in florida atleast a week earlier-- some longer. These guys are dedicated to pitching better this year. Whether that will turn into results is yet to be seen, but the attitude is significantly improved over what we saw last year, and I like to believe that when talented people work hard in life, they succeed.

 

Very good of you to mention this Palodios and that is very good news from where I sit. For awhile the attitude among the players seems to have left a lot to be desired but there does seem to be a new spirit down in Florida this February. As you said, whether this will turn into positive results remains to be seen, but I'll tell you this.....I would rather see this happening one hundred times over than hearing about all the angry and sad faces down at Fort Myers. A positive outlook can't do anything but help get our whole team on track.

 

One point I want to amplify from what you said. About Lackey, I have always liked the guy and think he will be a pleasant surprise for us. You rightly said I and 700 are pretty critical and only speaking for myself, I plead guilty, but not with Lackey. He pitched when he was hurting and I think he wants to make amends and I think he will.

[jung]

Nice that they are down there early. Hard to tell that it will mean anything at this point. We are just going to have to see how they pitch....especially Lester and Buch.

[Palodios]

Very good of you to mention this Palodios and that is very good news from where I sit..... A positive outlook can't do anything but help get our whole team on track.

 

About Lackey, I have always liked the guy and think he will be a pleasant surprise for us. You rightly said I and 700 are pretty critical and only speaking for myself, I plead guilty, but not with Lackey. He pitched when he was hurting and I think he wants to make amends and I think he will.

 

 

The real rub for me is that I don't see a high talent level on this staff, question marks aside. Other than the top 2, I don't see a lot of talent. The top 2 will have to win virtually every time they take the ball to keep this team competitive.

 

Lackey and Dempster are your token #3 type pitchers. ERAS in the 4.00s, with high strikeouts and high innings. If healthy and effective, they'll keep the Red Sox in games for the offense/bullpen to finish off. Ofcourse, that is a big if.

 

Doubront and Morales are lefties with 96-97 MPH fastballs-- Morales being a top 10 overall draft pick. They're both young pitchers who simply haven't gotten everything together for a good season yet, but the talent is definitely there.

 

There are a lot of IFS, and I'm aware of it. However, the way the team has started alleviates some of my concerns.