2013 Red Sox predictions.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Dempster was throwing in the mid 80s last year. I don't think we can expect a lot.

 

His average velocity was 90.79 on his fastball last year. Not sure where you're getting mid 80's.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=133225

 

And going toward your other post, this pitching staff is better than last year if Lester and Buchholz return to their normal selves, which is a very reasonable expectation, especially given the disaster of a clubhouse and pitching coach drama that was 2012.

 

That's the whole basis. I expect both Buch and Lester to be anywhere from 3.30 to 3.60 in ERA.

[jung]

Bell I think it will take a miracle for Dempster to pull off 190 at 4.6

 

Maybe he can get them to take all three swings at one pitch....thought only Daffy Duck had that pitch but with luck maybe Dempster can perfect it.

 

But like I have said in a few posts, the junkers often had uncanny success last year against the AL East's free swinging beasts almost regardless of where they played. Jurjens ate us alive last year and at a point when we actually still had a lineup for example.

 

In fairness I don't remember him being below 90 with his FB last year either. If anything he might be getting a little to close to the hairy edge on the delta between the FB and the breaking stuff. Wish he had a heavier sinker than I remember

[SoxFanForsyth]

I totally respect SFF's optimistic take. But if things go sour he's gonna hear it.

 

When things go right for the Sox this year, I'll be gloating my ass off :thumbsup:

[SoxFanForsyth]

Mediocre in the NL, last year was an obvious fluke IMO. This dude's getting rocked.

 

You should read this.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/ryan-dempster-moves-east/

 

Dempster FIP and xFIP after the move to Texas were 4.06 and 3.85, respectively. His ERA was inflated by a .330 BABIP and a terrible strand rate (around 66%).

 

The article states that expecting 12-15 wins and a sub 4 era from him is reasonable, though I think that's a bit aggressive. I'd be happy with 12-13 wins and a 4.2 era.

[a700hitter]

I totally respect SFF's optimistic take. But if things go sour he's gonna hear it.

I am not going to jump on SFF, who is a nice guy, but I will jump all over the FO. Last year, they had an obvious need for 2 starting pitchers. They did nothing, made Bard a starter picked up some guys off the scrap heap for minor league contracts and crossed their fingers. Those who defended the FO reasoned that getting rid of Wakefield and Lackey was addition by subtraction and that our pitching couldn't get worse than 2011. That argument was made all over the pages of this forum. Alas, things got much worse. Even as things imploded and we were subjected to the torture of 2012, people pointed out that they had no payroll flexibility as they were already over the 8:14:52 AM cap.

 

They purged themselves of a ton of payroll in August and they had a ton of payroll flexibility going into the off season. I thought surely they would strengthen their pitching. Tomorrow is February 1st and all we have added is a soft throwing Dumpster who was mediocre in his NL career. Are you kidding me? This is way below any reasonable expectations. I am not interested in hearing the excuses that no real aces were available or that the market was over priced an yada yada yada ******** excuses. As usual, a long list of starting pitchers changes laundry in the off season, and many will be very productive for their new teams. Even a team like the Mets, with little prospect for success in the NL East and an austerity payroll landed Marcum who many of us wanted. The O's got Jurjens for $1 million. These guys would have helped us. Pitchers were available. We had the money and we did nothing. What about trades? People criticize the Blue Jays, but are you kidding me? If we added Dickey, Buehrle and Josh Johnson to our staff, we would all be tickled pink. On the offensive side of the ball, they added Reyes and Melky. We got their loser manager. WTF!

 

Those same people who said that losing Lackey and Wakefield after 2011 was addition by subtraction are now trying to sell me on the return of Lackey being a good thing. He's in great condition. He's going to be the Lackey who pitched for the Angels etc. Etc. Make up your minds. Is having Lackey a good thing or is losing him a good thing. Talk about a severe flip flop. To sum up, our starting pitching has little hope of being productive. We have to get rid of Salty. That should help. The strengthened bullpen should be able to salvage some games in the early part of the season before they get worn out, and we have to hope that all of our starting pitchers are juicing HGH so they can stay healthy. Those are our chances.

[a700hitter]

His average velocity was 90.79 on his fastball last year. Not sure where you're getting mid 80's.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=133225

 

And going toward your other post, this pitching staff is better than last year if Lester and Buchholz return to their normal selves, which is a very reasonable expectation, especially given the disaster of a clubhouse and pitching coach drama that was 2012.

 

That's the whole basis. I expect both Buch and Lester to be anywhere from 3.30 to 3.60 in ERA.

I guess they were registering his other puff balls as offspeed pitches. I watched this guy in particular at the trading deadline to see what he had. The games that I watched he was sitting 84-87. I remember thinking that his velocity had dropped off considerably from what he had been. My recollection could be faulty, or maybe he was starting to wear down by then, but I think we will not see a guy sitting at 90 unless Fenway juices its gun.

[Palodios]

They purged themselves of a ton of payroll in August and they had a ton of payroll flexibility going into the off season. I thought surely they would strengthen their pitching. Tomorrow is February 1st and all we have added is a soft throwing Dumpster who was mediocre in his NL career. Are you kidding me? This is way below any reasonable expectations. I am not interested in hearing the excuses that no real aces were available or that the market was over priced an yada yada yada ******** excuses. As usual, a long list of starting pitchers changes laundry in the off season, and many will be very productive for their new teams. Even a team like the Mets, with little prospect for success in the NL East and an austerity payroll landed Marcum who many of us wanted. The O's got Jurjens for $1 million. These guys would have helped us. Pitchers were available. We had the money and we did nothing. What about trades? People criticize the Blue Jays, but are you kidding me? If we added Dickey, Buehrle and Josh Johnson to our staff, we would all be tickled pink. On the offensive side of the ball, they added Reyes and Melky. We got their loser manager. WTF!

 

 

My first instinct here was to come up with some argument against you to support this team. Unfortunately, you're absolutely right. The Red Sox needed one more pitcher, and they never bothered.

[a700hitter]

When things go right for the Sox this year, I'll be gloating my ass off :thumbsup:

And you will have every right to gloat and I for one will be very happy for you. You will not get any snide remarks from me like even a stopped clock iis right twice a day, nor will there be any references to blind squirrels and nuts. Those are the things that I hear from some asshats even though I am right much more than I am wrong. You are a knowledgeable guy and you have been right about a lot of stuff. You may be the only guy who saw something positive in Miller at the start of last season, and he was a pleasant surprise. I hope you are right about our pitching this year, because last year was torture.

 

BTW I am still mad at you for ruining Kalish's season.

[jung]

One more stinkin' lousy gamble guy would have been worth it. Maybe for a lousy $1m they could have caught lightning in a bottle with somebody....maybe not but it would have been worth it to take that shot...now they got what they got and thats probably that.

[Emmz]

You should read this.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/ryan-dempster-moves-east/

 

Dempster FIP and xFIP after the move to Texas were 4.06 and 3.85, respectively. His ERA was inflated by a .330 BABIP and a terrible strand rate (around 66%).

 

The article states that expecting 12-15 wins and a sub 4 era from him is reasonable, though I think that's a bit aggressive. I'd be happy with 12-13 wins and a 4.2 era.

 

He's pitching a full season in the toughest division for pitchers in the entire league. Also, Fenway is a good point.

 

Anyways, I don't know if he's as bad as his Rangers numbers suggest, but I think it's obvious he's closer to that than his numbers with the Cubs.

[a700hitter]

My first instinct here was to come up with some argument against you to support this team. Unfortunately, you're absolutely right. The Red Sox needed one more pitcher, and they never bothered.

I don't understand the compulsion to disagree with me. After all, we are diehard fans of the same team, and we both know a lot about baseball. We are bound to agree with each other at least occasionally. We have withstood the test of time on this forum. Many have gone by the wayside voluntarily and involuntarily.

[a700hitter]

He's pitching a full season in the toughest division for pitchers in the entire league. Also, Fenway is a good point.

 

Anyways, I don't know if he's as bad as his Rangers numbers suggest, but I think it's obvious he's closer to that than his numbers with the Cubs.

But on the bright side, we have him for 2 seasons.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And you will have every right to gloat and I for one will be very happy for you. You will not get any snide remarks from me like even a stopped clock iis right twice a day, nor will there be any references to blind squirrels and nuts. Those are the things that I hear from some asshats even though I am right much more than I am wrong. You are a knowledgeable guy and you have been right about a lot of stuff. You may be the only guy who saw something positive in Miller at the start of last season, and he was a pleasant surprise. I hope you are right about our pitching this year, because last year was torture.

 

BTW I am still mad at you for ruining Kalish's season.

 

Hahaha. Well I refuse to take credit for Kalish's injury because......my wife was there too so it's her fault!!

 

A couple days after that he did frisbee at the park again and that time brought Middlebrooks so I got to meet him and throw the football w him for a bit. Except my wife wasn't there this time, and he's still healthy!

[Palodios]

I don't understand the compulsion to disagree with me. After all, we are diehard fans of the same team, and we both know a lot about baseball. We are bound to agree with each other at least occasionally. We have withstood the test of time on this forum. Many have gone by the wayside voluntarily and involuntarily.

 

Oh no, there is no compulsion to disagree with you. I just happen to wear a nice pair of rose colored glasses. The problem is... the lens I use to look at the starting pitching is busted.

[a700hitter]

Hahaha. Well I refuse to take credit for Kalish's injury because......my wife was there too so it's her fault!!

 

A couple days after that he did frisbee at the park again and that time brought Middlebrooks so I got to meet him and throw the football w him for a bit. Except my wife wasn't there this time, and he's still healthy!

I hope Middlebrooks is okay. The Sox need him to be a power bat. Plus, I just picked him up in a pre-draft fantasy trade where I parted with Machado.

 

 

Middlebrooks looks like an imposing specimen. He must have been able to rifle the football.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I hope Middlebrooks is okay. The Sox need him to be a power bat. Plus, I just picked him up in a pre-draft fantasy trade where I parted with Machado.

 

 

Middlebrooks looks like an imposing specimen. He must have been able to rifle the football.

 

Absolute cannon. He turned down a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M to sign w the Sox ya know. He was throwing bullets.

[Bellhorn04]

With regard to the speed of Dempster's fastball, I think this may have been a mixup with Marcum. I'm pretty sure I read that Marcum's average fastball last year was something like 86.7, the slowest of any non-knuckleballer. Marcum is the ultimate soft tosser, living and dying with his changeup. Not that it much matters to us now...

[Bellhorn04]

Absolute cannon. He turned down a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M to sign w the Sox ya know. He was throwing bullets.

 

Good thing he's not a pitcher. We've had about enough of those Lone Star boys pitching for us in recent years.

[a700hitter]

With regard to the speed of Dempster's fastball, I think this may have been a mixup with Marcum. I'm pretty sure I read that Marcum's average fastball last year was something like 86.7, the slowest of any non-knuckleballer. Marcum is the ultimate soft tosser, living and dying with his changeup. Not that it much matters to us now...

I was just going on my personal observations, almost entirely in the second half of the season. He wasn't throwing hard at all in my recollection. Hopefully, I am wrong about that.

[jung]

Don't let BC know that WMB has a cannon. Before you know it we will hear that "WMB always wanted to be a pitcher" and " we plan on inserting him into the 5 hole and see how it goes"!

[a700hitter]

Absolute cannon. He turned down a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M to sign w the Sox ya know. He was throwing bullets.

Maybe he injured Kalish with one of those bullets.

[mvp 78]

When things go right for the Sox this year, I'll be gloating my ass off :thumbsup:

 

I hope you are able to gloat and win many sig bets.

[wyo-sox]

When things go right for the Sox this year, I'll be gloating my ass off :thumbsup:

 

 

Why not...... I'm in on the optimism . So my two big predictions are that SFF is correct and the Sox have a good year making the post season. Secondly, I break the 1000 post mark this year.

[NativeBostonian]

Wouldnt that be nice. I pretty much get the Same feeling as everyone here, The Redsox season Will either succeed or fail because of Lester and buch. Ive wanted to ask you guys something. Ive seen alot of people saying that Dempster will be a back of the rotation starter. But in my mind dont be surprised if he Is our opening day starter. The way i see our rotation shaping up is,

 

1.Dempster

2.Lester

3.Buch

4.Dubrount

5Lackey.

 

Let me know what you guys think.

Dempster isn't a number one starter. Also, I think buch needs to be higher in the rotation.

[KrisBryant23USD]

Dempster isn't a number one starter. Also, I think buch needs to be higher in the rotation.

 

You watch i Guarentee thats how the rotation is gonna shake out. I know dempster isnt a True #1 but hes the best we have right now. Everyone thinks im crazy for saying dempster will be at the top of the rotation but when it happens ill be here to tell everyone i told you so... Lol

 

Plus with the rotation the way i have it its RH,LH,RH,LH,RH.

[Bellhorn04]

You watch i Guarentee thats how the rotation is gonna shake out. I know dempster isnt a True #1 but hes the best we have right now. Everyone thinks im crazy for saying dempster will be at the top of the rotation but when it happens ill be here to tell everyone i told you so... Lol

 

If you're right, there may not be anyone here to tell it to...because it'll mean we suck even worse than last year.

[KrisBryant23USD]

If you're right, there may not be anyone here to tell it to...because it'll mean we suck even worse than last year.

 

Lol. I dont get why you guys think dempster is THAT bad. This is the same Ryan Dempster that was highly saught after at the trade deadline right?

[Spitball]

Absolute cannon. He turned down a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M to sign w the Sox ya know. He was throwing bullets.

 

He is a lifelong friend of Patriot backup quarterback Ryan Mallett, btw.

[Bellhorn04]

Lol. I dont get why you guys think dempster is THAT bad. This is the same Ryan Dempster that was highly saught after at the trade deadline right?

 

Yep. And the same guy who posted a 5 ERA for the Rangers in his first AL stint.

 

Part of the pessimism is the bad history of lifelong NL pitchers coming to the AL.

[KrisBryant23USD]

Yep. And the same guy who posted a 5 ERA for the Rangers in his first AL stint.

 

Part of the pessimism is the bad history of lifelong NL pitchers coming to the AL.

 

I cant disagree with that he did look pretty bad in his first couple starts in the AL. But if you look at his stats of his last few starts they would suggest that Dempster was starting to get the feel of pitching in the AL.