2013 Red Sox predictions.

[Palodios]

LOL, wow. You cannot think of 5 teams in the AL that are better? You dont think the Yankees are better? WTF planet are you on man?

 

Maybe you haven't noticed... but the Yankees have gotten one year older, and have done significantly more subtraction than addition.

 

They lost Swisher, Martin, Chavez, Soriano, Garcia, Jones, and Ibanez.

Arod is out for most of the season, and the player replacing him is just as injury prone.

Jeter and Rivera are coming off season ending injuries.

The #2 starter on the team is 38 years old, and the #3 is 42.

Most of the Yankee's top prospects ended last season in A ball. Banuelos is out with Tommy John.

The Yankee's current bench hit a combined .650 in 2013.

 

The Yankees have just as many question marks as the Red Sox, but with none of the depth.

[Bellhorn04]

So yes. The Sox have a better team than the Yanks right now. I'll give the Angels, Tigers, and Jays as teams that, right now, look better. We'll see how the Jays mesh, but on paper they're certainly more talented. Outside of that, like I said, a lot of teams are lumped together. The Yanks, Sox, A's, Rays, and ChiSox are all in that group to varying degrees. But to say with any certainty that there are 5 teams better than the Sox? No way.

 

I appreciate your optimism, I really do. I just can't see where it's founded on much except optimism itself. Our team is 76-113 in its last 189 games. Our upgrades on that team, aside from the bullpen where we have definitely improved, are a group of journeyman players. Our rotation is a complete mystery and x factor. It might improve greatly on last year's 5+ ERA, but it might not.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I appreciate your optimism, I really do. I just can't see where it's founded on much except optimism itself. Our team is 76-113 in its last 189 games. Our upgrades on that team, aside from the bullpen where we have definitely improved, are a group of journeyman players. Our rotation is a complete mystery and x factor. It might improve greatly on last year's 5+ ERA, but it might not.

 

I am one of the apparent few who rely more heavily on career stats than 1-year aberrations and injury filled seasons.

 

This team went 9-27 in September/October last year because they put out the most putrid team that I've seen in my life. They were without Middlebrooks for nearly the entire 2nd half. They were without Ortiz for the entire 2nd half. They were without Ellsbury for the entire 1st half and Pedroia played with a busted thumb the entire 1st half. Lester posted a career high ERA, Buchholz set an MLB record in allowing 5 runs in 6 straight starts, and we received 30 starts from Cook (5.65 ERA), Stewart (ERA north of 20), and DiceK (ERA north of 8.50).

 

For the Red Sox to be a bad team again, these are all items that would need to repeat themselves. Plain and simple, it's extremely unlikely for the Sox to have to go through such an injury ridden and underperforming season as last year. They set an MLB record for days on the DL.

 

It's not blind optimism. It's counting on players to return to their level of normalcy rather than playing to career worst years. It's waiting for players to get hurt before you project a season with them injured.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe you haven't noticed... but the Yankees have gotten one year older, and have done significantly more subtraction than addition.

 

They lost Swisher, Martin, Chavez, Soriano, Garcia, Jones, and Ibanez.

Arod is out for most of the season, and the player replacing him is just as injury prone.

Jeter and Rivera are coming off season ending injuries.

The #2 starter on the team is 38 years old, and the #3 is 42.

Most of the Yankee's top prospects ended last season in A ball. Banuelos is out with Tommy John.

The Yankee's current bench hit a combined .650 in 2013.

 

The Yankees have just as many question marks as the Red Sox, but with none of the depth.

 

Yes, they have subtracted. They have also improved in some areas that you are conveniently leaving out.

 

#1- their SP was very good last yr and that was with CC struggling with bone chips in the elbow and Pettitte only making 12 starts (freak ankle injury and started the season late). They also saw a big step forward for Phil Hughes, who put up better numbers than the annointed one (Buchholz) but is somehow expected to involute into a firebomb and die. We also saw David Phelps emerge as a true big league rotation candidate. We saw Ivan Nova take 1 step forward in learning how to set up and put away hitters, and 2 steps back in that he threw less strikes and gave up more HRs. Yes, their SP are a year older, that being said, our geriatric club started 45 games last yr. I say that it is highly, highly likely we see them start more than that. Add in a second yr for Phelps, a contract yr for Hughes, and a fully healthy season from CC and I dont think it is even close in terms of SP.

 

#2- their RP was very good last yr, and we lose Soriano but gain a healthy Mariano. Say what you want about Rivera, he was heading for another standard Mo season last yr before he blew out his knee. His arm should be fine. Throw in a healthy yr from Joba, who finally started looking like his old self towards the end of the yr as well as a healthy yr from Aardsma, another full yr from Robertson and Logan and the cadre of pen arms behind him, the Yankee pen will be formidable again. The biggest reason why their pen will be formidable is the fact that they will get a ton of innings out of their SP. Last yr, only Seattle and the Bombers had their starters eclipse 1000IP. With a full yr of Pettitte on the horizon, that looks more likely than not.

 

#3- the offense will take a small step back without Swisher. We brought in Ichiro which won't completely offset the offensive loss, but defensively and speed wise, we upgrade significantly. And for those who forgot, we will have a healthy Brett Gardner back in the lineup. You know, the guy who had 10.7WAR from 10-11 but missed all but 16 games in 2012. Youkilis should be able to replace the ARod we had last yr. Obviously, he cannot replace the ARod during his prime, but last yr's ARod had an OPS of .782. Once Youk got out of the poisonous Boston environment, he put up an OPS of .771. Jeter is coming off ankle surgery, which is a concern. It'd be even more of a concern if he was still limited. Well, he isnt. The guy is back on the field performing his normal baseball activities. While I doubt he can sustain a .300+AVG, he should be good enough for above average production for the entire yr, as usual. We should also see improvements from Granderson. You brought up Martin, but he was a terrible hitter for most of the yr. He had some power and walked a good amount, but his OPS was barely over .700 and it was driven almost entirely by his HRs. We can replace the defense with Romine, and we shouldnt see too much of a slide offensively since there wasnt far to go in a downward trajectory. Overall, I expect the offense to put up 800+ runs like it always does. I think the sox offense will be in that vicinity too, although they're not nearly as complete as you think they are.

 

Overall, our pen can keep up with yours because they wont be overworked and have the personnel to go head to head, our offense should be a tick better than yours, and our starters are head, shoulders, knees and toes better. It aint close

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Palodios points are more valid because you carry too many "what ifs".

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm stating the truth. Mariano, Joba, Jeter, Gardner and Pettitte are healthy and will be healthy headed into the yr. We retained Ichiro and Kuroda. We have a kid who can replicate Martin's defense.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I'm not saying you're not stating the truth, you can't just say they're going to come back and perform well.

[Bellhorn04]

I am one of the apparent few who rely more heavily on career stats than 1-year aberrations and injury filled seasons.

 

This team went 9-27 in September/October last year because they put out the most putrid team that I've seen in my life. They were without Middlebrooks for nearly the entire 2nd half. They were without Ortiz for the entire 2nd half. They were without Ellsbury for the entire 1st half and Pedroia played with a busted thumb the entire 1st half. Lester posted a career high ERA, Buchholz set an MLB record in allowing 5 runs in 6 straight starts, and we received 30 starts from Cook (5.65 ERA), Stewart (ERA north of 20), and DiceK (ERA north of 8.50).

 

For the Red Sox to be a bad team again, these are all items that would need to repeat themselves. Plain and simple, it's extremely unlikely for the Sox to have to go through such an injury ridden and underperforming season as last year. They set an MLB record for days on the DL.

 

It's not blind optimism. It's counting on players to return to their level of normalcy rather than playing to career worst years. It's waiting for players to get hurt before you project a season with them injured.

 

The starting rotation is the complete x factor.

 

1) Lester 4.82 ERA in 2012, 5.40 in Sept/11. Why, and can he rebound?

2) Buchholz 4.56 ERA in 2012. Only his second full year in the majors. Had a terrible start, nice stretch in mid-season, and a terrible finish. Very hard to predict.

3) Lackey 5.26 ERA as a Red Sox. Coming off missed season and TJ surgery.

4) Dempster career National Leaguer, 5.09 ERA in first and only AL stint last year.

5) Doubront 4.86 ERA in 2012. And jump in innings has him on the 'Verducci list'.

 

Optimism that several of these guys will have decent seasons is certainly not unwarranted and I hope they do. But there's really nothing there to feel especially confident about.

[Palodios]

Yes, they have subtracted. They have also improved in some areas that you are conveniently leaving out.

 

#1- their SP was very good last yr and that was with CC struggling with bone chips in the elbow and Pettitte only making 12 starts (freak ankle injury and started the season late). They also saw a big step forward for Phil Hughes, who put up better numbers than the annointed one (Buchholz) but is somehow expected to involute into a firebomb and die. We also saw David Phelps emerge as a true big league rotation candidate. We saw Ivan Nova take 1 step forward in learning how to set up and put away hitters, and 2 steps back in that he threw less strikes and gave up more HRs. Yes, their SP are a year older, that being said, our geriatric club started 45 games last yr. I say that it is highly, highly likely we see them start more than that. Add in a second yr for Phelps, a contract yr for Hughes, and a fully healthy season from CC and I dont think it is even close in terms of SP.

 

Just a simple request-- please try to break up posts like this.

 

As far as the starting pitching, we know CC is going to be a beast. But there are a good number of concerns with the advanced ages of Kuroda and Pettite. Pettite hasn't pitched a full season since 2009. Nova and Phelps are decent back-end filler, but I don't see them turning into difference makers.

 

Buchholz and Hughes have very similar inning patterns over the last four years, but Clay is the one who has shown he can be dominant over the course of a year. You also have to worry about Hughes getting hurt again-- just as much as the Red Sox should worry.

Buchholz over the last 4 years: 537 innings, 3.62 ERA

Hughes over the last 4 years: 528, 4.24 ERA

[SoxFanForsyth]

Didn't address the offensive reliance on the HR ball at all. You took out a guy in Swisher, who put up a .360+ OBP and 25+ HR (OBP creating less reliance on the HR ball) and replaced him with an 8-10 HR, .335 OBP guy. Not sure how that translates to a better offense. Gardner will help the offense because he produces a solid OBP, but you're still getting very little offensive production from the OF.

 

Again. You're counting on a 41 year old who hasn't thrown more than 129 IP since 2009 to provide you with 180-200 IP. If the Sox were doing that, oh the humanity.

 

As much as you want to discredit Martin, he was very helpful to the Yankees offense because of his power, which they rely on. When they go through spurts where they're not getting that HR production (See: 2012 PS), they're not a very good team and must put a ton of reliance on their rotation.

 

Depend all you want on Hughes. He still has yet to put up a sub-4.20 ERA season over more than 90 innings. It's crazy for our pitchers to return to their career norms, but your pitchers will somehow throw to career years.

 

Dismissing Jeter's ankle and CC's elbow is very Jackso'ish. Last year Crawford looked like he was going to be ready by Opening Day too. How'd that turn out. Aged players run into issues when recovering from injuries. That includes Jeter. Not to mention that you haven't even seen him. Saying he's "returned to baseball activities" doesn't mean he's not going to have extremely limited range next year. Stephen Drew returned to baseball activities too. He actually played games. And he was not even close to the same player. It takes a long time to recover from a broken ankle as a middle infielder.

 

And your bullpen can't hold the Sox bullpen's jock strap. Joba posted a 4.35 ERA last year, but somehow he's back to a sub 3.00 ERA. Boone Logan (3.74 ERA last year, career high innings_ isn't even as good as Andrew Miller, who is basically our 3rd lefty. Aardsma is coming off of TJS and has a 4.22 career ERA. Robertson is a solid arm, and Rivera is obviously too but he's coming off of a major, major injury and he's 42 years old. Outside of that, I don't even know who the other arm is. The Sox have Uehara, Hanrahan, Tazawa, Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Morales, Miller, Breslow, and have Alex Wilson waiting in AAA as another power arm, not to mention the potential of De La Rosa if he's needed. To say they'll be able to match? That's a joke.

 

Plain and simple, the only edge the Yanks have on the Sox is CC and Kuroda.

 

I'm noticing a nice trend here, though. The Yankees pitchers are all going to come back, throw to career best seasons, all be healthy and throw a career high in innings. The Yankees hitters are all going to be fully recovered from injuries (Gardner, Youkilis, Jeter) and perform to career norms.

 

The Red Sox pitchers are all the 2012 version of themselves, outside of Lackey who is the 2011 version. The bullpen will likely implode because of the complete and utter reliance on them (see starting pitchers assumption above). The offense is solid, but they certainly aren't allowed to be any better than the Yankees despite being marginally more talented and certainly much more balanced.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's face it, if Ivan Nova was a Red Sox we'd be looking for him to rebound from his bad 2012 season to his good 2011 season.

[Palodios]

#2- their RP was very good last yr, and we lose Soriano but gain a healthy Mariano. Say what you want about Rivera, he was heading for another standard Mo season last yr before he blew out his knee. His arm should be fine. Throw in a healthy yr from Joba, who finally started looking like his old self towards the end of the yr as well as a healthy yr from Aardsma, another full yr from Robertson and Logan and the cadre of pen arms behind him, the Yankee pen will be formidable again. The biggest reason why their pen will be formidable is the fact that they will get a ton of innings out of their SP. Last yr, only Seattle and the Bombers had their starters eclipse 1000IP. With a full yr of Pettitte on the horizon, that looks more likely than not.

 

The only thing I ever say against Rivera is this: He can't do this forever. He turns 43 this year. At some point he has to give, and last year we saw that. The guy has had a routine for 15 years, and for the first time in his career, he has to find a way to adjust and rebuild. Robertson is a lock. Logan is solid. But everyone else? They're year to year players. Sometimes they do well, sometimes they suck. Aardsma is a flyball pitcher in Yankee stadium. The Yankees bullpen isn't what it was in 2012, and you know it.

[Palodios]

#3- the offense will take a small step back without Swisher. We brought in Ichiro which won't completely offset the offensive loss, but defensively and speed wise, we upgrade significantly. And for those who forgot, we will have a healthy Brett Gardner back in the lineup. You know, the guy who had 10.7WAR from 10-11 but missed all but 16 games in 2012. Youkilis should be able to replace the ARod we had last yr. Obviously, he cannot replace the ARod during his prime, but last yr's ARod had an OPS of .782. Once Youk got out of the poisonous Boston environment, he put up an OPS of .771. Jeter is coming off ankle surgery, which is a concern. It'd be even more of a concern if he was still limited. Well, he isnt. The guy is back on the field performing his normal baseball activities. While I doubt he can sustain a .300+AVG, he should be good enough for above average production for the entire yr, as usual. We should also see improvements from Granderson. You brought up Martin, but he was a terrible hitter for most of the yr. He had some power and walked a good amount, but his OPS was barely over .700 and it was driven almost entirely by his HRs. We can replace the defense with Romine, and we shouldnt see too much of a slide offensively since there wasnt far to go in a downward trajectory. Overall, I expect the offense to put up 800+ runs like it always does. I think the sox offense will be in that vicinity too, although they're not nearly as complete as you think they are.

 

Youkilis, Jeter and Gardner all had significant health issues in 2012, and expecting career numbers from them might not be realistic. Granderson, Texiera, and Cano will probably have good seasons, but I just don't see any kind of depth from the Yankees. Ichiro moves from a backup role to a starting role. Romine is unproven and could take some time to accustom to the majors. The Yanks have no designated hitter. Its a very top heavy lineup that is one or two injuries from being punchless.

 

 

Overall, our pen can keep up with yours because they wont be overworked and have the personnel to go head to head, our offense should be a tick better than yours, and our starters are head, shoulders, knees and toes better. It aint close

 

The offense should be a wash, maybe advantage Boston because of depth. The Yankees do have better starting pitching, but it is very topheavy. The Red Sox's bullpen is head and shoulders above the Yankees.

[User Name]

Jackson, for as much as you accuse SFF of being a homer, that post demonstrates that not only are you a homer too, but you're a way worse one. Take off the rose-colored glasses.

[Spitball]

We have a kid who can replicate Martin's defense.

 

I believe you have been reading and believing the Yankee organizational propaganda. It is always hard to judge Yankee prospects because they generally come so over-hyped.

 

I saw him in 2010 in Portland, Maine, with the Trenton Thunder, and he was awful. I couldn't believe how raw his technique was. He looked like he was too tall and slow to move to the pitch. He was reaching for everything. In fact, the winning run scored for the Sea Dogs on a ball that went to the backstop because he tried to backhand a ball breaking down and to his right. It really was pathetic effort and technique.

 

He may have progressed some, but he sure had a long way to go. I believe injuries have kept him from playing all that much since I saw him, though.

 

I watch a lot of double-A ball and can't say I have seen too many guys that looked less at home behind the plate.

[seabeachfred]

I keep going back to this. I just can't think of 5 AL teams that are better than the Sox. And it's not homerism. I've got the Angels and Tigers as locks. I don't think the Yankees are better. They have a better rotation, but the pen is not as good, nor is the offense. The Jays are better. So that's 3 teams.

 

I don't know. I think it's going to be a very interesting season. Certainly the Sox are right up there with any WC contending team, but I really just don't see who is better than the Sox.

 

I like your optimism SFF!!! It is not off the wall and is grounded is some sound precepts. You have to believe that after season after season of crushing injuries, a season collapse that left the team in tatters in "11 and a dysfuncitonal season the past year, that finally Dame Fortune might finally smile on us and give us a fightng chance without a ton of roadblocks in our way. Hell, we could even win the division if Lester and Buchholz would finally put together a complete and successful season. I don't think that Farrell is that great a manager but he should be a refreshing breath of fresh air after what went down last year and maybe with Francona's book out now instead of in April, maybe the tumult will die down and the excitement and upbeat feelings will return to Fenway Park. You have a good way of looking at it and I'm slowly coming around to that myself.

[jung]

I would not be completely surprised to see both the Yanks and the Sox turn out to be somewhat irrelevant in 2013 with a slight edge to the Yanks for their propensity to focus on starting pitching....something we never ever seem to do, certainly not often enough. The Yanks also seem more likely to pull out the stops and make mid-season moves if the Yankee flag is not flying close to its usual spot whereas the Sox seem more likely to let the team they constructed at the start of a season play out the string making moves to acquire players only if it looks like they have a legit shot at post season play.

 

Most disconcerting is that Ortiz status appears to still be very uncertain and once again the Sox seem to be building out on another question mark filled roster. The starting rotation that is being trotted out is already wearing Riddler costumes plastered with question marks and Ortiz alone makes for a big enough lineup question mark to be disconcerting. More often than not when a team starts the season not sure if it is standing on quicksand or solid ground it turns out to be quicksand.

[seabeachfred]

I would not be completely surprised to see both the Yanks and the Sox turn out to be somewhat irrelevant in 2013 with a slight edge to the Yanks for their propensity to focus on starting pitching....something we never ever seem to do, certainly not often enough. The Yanks also seem more likely to pull out the stops and make mid-season moves if the Yankee flag is not flying close to its usual spot whereas the Sox seem more likely to let the team they constructed at the start of a season play out the string making moves to acquire players only if it looks like they have a legit shot at post season play.

 

Most disconcerting is that Ortiz status appears to still be very uncertain and once again the Sox seem to be building out on another question mark filled roster. The starting rotation that is being trotted out is already wearing Riddler costumes plastered with question marks and Ortiz alone makes for a big enough lineup question mark to be disconcerting. More often than not when a team starts the season not sure if it is standing on quicksand or solid ground it turns out to be quicksand.

 

Well that put a gallon of cold water on my previous upbeat post but, then again Jung, you could be right. We do have some real question marks and I was under the impression that Ortiz had a clean bill of health. If he is lame when the season begins we could be in some offensive trouble. I'm just hoping that after the better part of four seasons being a MASH unit we can have a season or two where we somewhat home free. That still puts us two in the hole but right now I'd take it .

[jung]

Well that Yankee team is going to look like AARP has decided to become part of MLB. You look at older ballplayers and they still look good in their unis and start the season will all the hope in the world but it is hard to imagine that they can stay sown together for an entire season.

 

As for the Sox even if Ortiz gets completely comfortable with his achilles before opening day he is so important to the Sox lineup yet is really at the same point in his career as many of the Yankee war horses. Injury can befall him at any time and can easily be season ending. True the Sox have bolstered the bullpen but we have had a pretty strong pen the last two years. You just cannot expect to get to many innings out of your pen. If pen mates could go innings they would be starters. So as a group they are better still than they were last year but regardless of how good they are....ask them to pitch to many innings they will get burned out just like they have for two straight years now.

[Bellhorn04]

Presumably the Red Sox 3-4 hitters will be Ortiz and Napoli. That's a very good pair if they're healthy, but one has the Achilles issue and the other has the hip issue.

[Spitball]

Presumably the Red Sox 3-4 hitters will be Ortiz and Napoli. That's a very good pair if they're healthy, but one has the Achilles issue and the other has the hip issue.

 

I don't know. If they can retain their pre-2012 OBP, I would like to see Ellsbury and Victorino in the first two spots. Pedroia number three and Ortiz number four. I agree Ortiz is better suited to the 3rd hole, but not with this personel.

[DocHolliday]

Well that Yankee team is going to look like AARP has decided to become part of MLB. You look at older ballplayers and they still look good in their unis and start the season will all the hope in the world but it is hard to imagine that they can stay sown together for an entire season.

 

As for the Sox even if Ortiz gets completely comfortable with his achilles before opening day he is so important to the Sox lineup yet is really at the same point in his career as many of the Yankee war horses. Injury can befall him at any time and can easily be season ending. True the Sox have bolstered the bullpen but we have had a pretty strong pen the last two years. You just cannot expect to get to many innings out of your pen. If pen mates could go innings they would be starters. So as a group they are better still than they were last year but regardless of how good they are....ask them to pitch to many innings they will get burned out just like they have for two straight years now.

 

I'll go out on a limb and predict that the bullpen will not be taxed in 2013 as they were in 2010-2012. Won't go as far to say that the rotation will be lights out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Lester, Buch, Dempster, and Lackey combine to pitch 700-750 innings (to varying degrees of quality). Guys like Doubront, Morales, De La Rosa, et al should fill out the rest of the expected starter's innings that were being thrust onto various bullpen names and AAAA starting depth guys the past few seasons.

[KrisBryant23USD]

I see it as it Really all comes down to starting pitching. If the Starters can give you 5 to 6 innings on a regular basis then the Sox Will be contenders again this year. If not Its gonna be another long season.

[jung]

The rotation more than ever really boils down to Lester and Buch. No Beckett to point fingers at any longer. Lester for his part has been the consummate #2 pitcher but has never as yet stepped up to accept the #1 role and to be honest I no longer expect it of him. That might be alright if he can even duplicate the better statistical performances he has had throughout his career. Buch for his part has never stepped up to your expectations of a #2 in the rotation. If Lester gives us no more than what we have already seen from him and Buch does not step up in a big way, we are in trouble already cause I don't see much help coming from the rest.

 

Dempster will likely be as advertised at best.....makes hay on the lower echelon AL teams and gets his clock cleaned by the upper half. Felix may actually have more potential than Dempster has to contribute. However that says more about Dempster than it does about Felix. I don't know how anybody can have more expectations for Lackey his first year back from TJ than that he will be a solid #5....maybe even a solid #4.5. He will be lucky to be able to figure out where the ball is going his first year back......And then there is Frankie....well OK....and.....

 

It is easier to see the whole thing as a house of cards than it is to see it as a solid rotation. This is why so many have been pining for one more starting pitcher even if it is a gamble type of deal which has been basically all there has been out there for quite a while now. But folks would rather see one more gamble type guy brought in here than go with what we have right now which speaks volumes.

 

So for my money it boils down to "Buch we need ya' more than ever buddy" and not just to have one of your usual, half on half off, half in the rotation half on the DL sort of Buch seasons.

 

As for 5-6 innings on average as a rotation....if that is the best they can do from 1-5, the bullpen will be sucking wind by the end of the season again. Your #1 and 2 have to be giving you 6.5-7 innings on average to allow for #3-5 to average 5-6. If the whole rotation can only average 5-6 put your face between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. It does not sound like much of a difference but by the end of the season it turns out to be 50+ extra innings you are asking of the pen and that turns out to be a tall order especially with half your games in Fenway as well as competing in the AL East.

[a700hitter]

The rotation more than ever really boils down to Lester and Buch. No Beckett to point fingers at any longer. Lester for his part has been the consummate #2 pitcher but has never as yet stepped up to accept the #1 role and to be honest I no longer expect it of him. That might be alright if he can even duplicate the better statistical performances he has had throughout his career. Buch for his part has never stepped up to your expectations of a #2 in the rotation. If Lester gives us no more than what we have already seen from him and Buch does not step up in a big way, we are in trouble already cause I don't see much help coming from the rest.

 

Dempster will likely be as advertised at best.....makes hay on the lower echelon AL teams and gets his clock cleaned by the upper half. Felix may actually have more potential than Dempster has to contribute. However that says more about Dempster than it does about Felix. I don't know how anybody can have more expectations for Lackey his first year back from TJ than that he will be a solid #5....maybe even a solid #4.5. He will be lucky to be able to figure out where the ball is going his first year back......And then there is Frankie....well OK....and.....

 

It is easier to see the whole thing as a house of cards than it is to see it as a solid rotation. This is why so many have been pining for one more starting pitcher even if it is a gamble type of deal which has been basically all there has been out there for quite a while now. But folks would rather see one more gamble type guy brought in here than go with what we have right now which speaks volumes.

 

So for my money it boils down to "Buch we need ya' more than ever buddy" and not just to have one of your usual, half on half off, half in the rotation half on the DL sort of Buch seasons.

 

As for 5-6 innings on average as a rotation....if that is the best they can do from 1-5, the bullpen will be sucking wind by the end of the season again. Your #1 and 2 have to be giving you 6.5-7 innings on average to allow for #3-5 to average 5-6. If the whole rotation can only average 5-6 put your face between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. It does not sound like much of a difference but by the end of the season it turns out to be 50+ extra innings you are asking of the pen and that turns out to be a tall order especially with half your games in Fenway as well as competing in the AL East.

Also, they are rolling the dice big time on a post op Lackey. I am not seeing the wisdom in that. If he has a hiccup, or Doubront hits a sophomore slump, or Dempster has a dumpster type year and it will be a very rough season. One or more of these things are likely to happen. If 2 or more happen, the house of cards will collapse very quickly, and it will not matter if our offense is like the 2004 Sox.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Also, they are tolling the dice big time on a post op Lackey. I am not seeing the wisdom in that. If he has a hiccup, or Doubront hits a sophomore slump, or Dempster has a dumpster type year and it will be a very rough season. One or more of these things are likely to happen. If 2 or more happen, the house of cards will collapse very quickly, and it will not matter if our offense is like the 2004 Sox.

 

I very, very much disagree. In terms of Lackey, Dempster, and Doubront, we have 3 guys (Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa) who can come in and provide similar (league average) production. In fact, I think this year we are much more equipped to handle the hiccups/injuries of the back half of our rotation much more than in years past.

 

If Lester or Buchholz goes down, then yes, we're going to be hurting. But if it's one of the other 3, I see very little transition from them to Morales/Aceves/De La Rosa.

[Dojji]

Also, they are tolling the dice big time on a post op Lackey. I am not seeing the wisdom in that. If he has a hiccup, or Doubront hits a sophomore slump, or Dempster has a dumpster type year and it will be a very rough season. One or more of these things are likely to happen. If 2 or more happen, the house of cards will collapse very quickly, and it will not matter if our offense is like the 2004 Sox.

 

Which it won't be. I have definite qualms about this offense. They've replaced "great" with "good enough" in too many positions since the World Series days, and that ignores the possibility that a "great" player merely has a "good enough" year.

[a700hitter]

I very, very much disagree. In terms of Lackey, Dempster, and Doubront, we have 3 guys (Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa) who can come in and provide similar (league average) production. In fact, I think this year we are much more equipped to handle the hiccups/injuries of the back half of our rotation much more than in years past.

 

If Lester or Buchholz goes down, then yes, we're going to be hurting. But if it's one of the other 3, I see very little transition from them to Morales/Aceves/De La Rosa.

None of those guys, Morales, Aceves or De La Rosa have been big league starters that have held down rotation spots for close to a season. Morales season high in innings is 75. Even with his relatively light workload, he has had arm issues. As for De La Rosa, unless he is lights out in camp, he has to prove in the minors that he can take the ball every 5th day. Aceves is another guy who has never been a regular starter. This is not ideal depth. Could these guys step up? Yes, that could happen, but IMO it is unlikely. If the house of cards comes down with our starting 5, these guys will be very unlikely to stem the damages. When I talked about hiccups, I wasn't talking about missing a few starts, I was referring to the fact that one or more of our starters might have lost seasons. If that happens, we do not have the depth to be successful taking regular rotation turns for 3 or 4 months.

[Bellhorn04]

The rotation is indeed a house of cards. Optimism that things will work out is natural, it's part of being a fan. On the other hand, confidence that things will work out for the rotation this year is unfounded, in my opinion. It's a 'watch and see and hope for the best' scenario.

[SoxFanForsyth]

None of those guys, Morales, Aceves or De La Rosa have been big league starters that have held down rotation spots for close to a season. Morales season high in innings is 75. Even with his relatively light workload, he has had arm issues. As for De La Rosa, unless he is lights out in camp, he has to prove in the minors that he can take the ball every 5th day. Aceves is another guy who has never been a regular starter. This is not ideal depth. Could these guys step up? Yes, that could happen, but IMO it is unlikely. If the house of cards comes down with our starting 5, these guys will be very unlikely to stem the damages. When I talked about hiccups, I wasn't talking about missing a few starts, I was referring to the fact that one or more of our starters might have lost seasons. If that happens, we do not have the depth to be successful taking regular rotation turns for 3 or 4 months.

 

I would much, much, much rather have guys like De La Rosa, Morales, or Aceves who may not be able to throw 200 IP, but will give you 100 IP of 4.2-4.4 ERA baseball, as opposed to last year having a guy like Aaron Cook who can throw 200 IP but will give you 5.70 ERA.

 

If someone goes down for a full season, it may have to be a collaborative effort to make up his innings, or they can look externally at the trade deadline to fill the hole if there is too much workload being put on some of the fill in starters because, at that point, the fill ins still wouldn't have bumped up to their innings limits.

 

The fact that we have Aceves, Morales, and De La Rosa makes me much more comfortable with the back end of our rotation this year than I would be if we had Cook and DiceK back there. And it's not close. I actually feel relatively comfortable with the back 3 of our rotation right now, knowing we have some pretty talented guys waiting in the wings to take over in case of underperformance and/or injury.