2013 Bold Predictions Thread(discussion only)

[BSN07]

Self explanatory.. have fun, no one get too but hurt. This is the place where we are encouraging the act of going out on a limb, have fun :thumbsup:

[rjortiz]

The Cubs are going to the playoffs as a Wild Card team

 

Lol

[mvp 78]

There's a reason they are "bold" predictions. Kuddos to Rick.

[jacksonianmarch]

RS3, if those players finish 27 games over .500 you will win 95 games

[cak33]

red sox trade for stanton

[a700hitter]

red sox trade for stanton

Red sox fans around the world hope that you are right on this one.

[PlugInHysteriaBaby]

Hi everyone. First post. I'm glad to have found this forum.

 

If watching MLB has taught any of us anything it's that we should expect the unexpected - Oakland, Washington being THAT good, the LAD/BOS trade, Baltimore, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnancion, so on, so forth.

 

When it comes to bold predictions for the Sox:

 

1) The team will contend for the playoffs.

 

2) The rotation will be better than people are giving them credit for.

 

Lester - 17 W, 3.30, 220 K

 

Buchholz - 10-11 W, 3.75. I can see him missing time. He's never given the team 30 starts in a season.

 

Lackey - 12 W, 4.25, eat innings.

 

Dempster - 12-15 W, Low 4.00's, dependable.

 

Felix Doubront is the wild card for me, and I see his season looking like this:

 

15-8, 3.55, 1.32, 191 IP, 62 BB, 197 K.

 

3) Surprisingly Good:

 

Jonny Gomes - 20-25 HR, .260-.275, leads from the front. Beloved in the clubhouse, and by fans.

 

Daniel Bard - Refocused on being a late innings RP, ERA in the 2.50 range, 10.0 or better K/9.

 

Will Middlebrooks - This is my real breakout player. I can see a line of .285/.340/105/35/115.

 

4) Surprisingly Ineffective:

 

David Ortiz will miss at least 50 games, will hit for some power, but will be under .250 for the year.

 

Andrew Bailey - The struggles continue, and it's discovered that he's still injured. Just a hunch. Will be largely a non-factor, but will lead to the promotion of Alex Wilson, who will be another surprise in the pen.

 

If I had to guess on a record/result I'd say 88-74, narrowly missing the playoffs.

[rjortiz]

Lackey had a 6.41 ERA before TJ surgery, but he is going to surprise everyone and manage to have a good season. I don't see how people are reaching this conclusion.

[Bellhorn04]

Lackey had a 6.41 ERA before TJ surgery, but he is going to surprise everyone and manage to have a good season. I don't see how people are reaching this conclusion.

 

It's just a guess on my part and an optimistic one at that. But it's certainly not inconceivable that Lackey's numbers were directly impacted by his injury. It's not like he's been a bum his whole career. He's only been a bum with us. :dunno:

[rjortiz]

It's just a guess on my part and an optimistic one at that. But it's certainly not inconceivable that Lackey's numbers were directly impacted by his injury. It's not like he's been a bum his whole career. He's only been a bum with us. :dunno:

 

Those also happen to be the last few years of his career. He's getting older, coming off a major surgery, and was the worst starter in all of baseball two years ago. This guy is going to suck so bad. The Red Sox should move quickly on Marcum, and let Lackey pitch out of the bullpen.

[Behindenemylines]

There's a reason they are "bold" predictions. Kuddos to Rick.

 

It looks like Rick started his New Year's celebration early!

[Bellhorn04]

Those also happen to be the last few years of his career. He's getting older, coming off a major surgery, and was the worst starter in all of baseball two years ago. This guy is going to suck so bad. The Red Sox should move quickly on Marcum, and let Lackey pitch out of the bullpen.

 

Tommy John surgery has done wonders for many pitchers.

[NativeBostonian]

How about this for a bold prediction. The Yankees will be in fourth-place in the American League East by the end of the season.

[a700hitter]

How about this for a bold prediction. The Yankees will be in fourth-place in the American League East by the end of the season.

 

I keep waiting for age to catch up to them and for them to crumble. Sooner or later it has to happen... No?

[NativeBostonian]

I keep waiting for age to catch up to them and for them to crumble. Sooner or later it has to happen... No?

 

It could happen. I think the division is the best it's been in a while. The rays jays and the o's are much better then they used to be.

[User Name]

Tommy John surgery has done wonders for many pitchers.

 

I keep saying this. At least velocity wise, pitchers seem to come back stronger from TJ surgery no matter the age with little exception.

[wyo-sox]

I have looked and could not find any studies or stats on post t.j. surgery pitching success. Anybody know of any? I've been curious what average changes, if any, there have been and how much it changes by age group. I hear the stories of those pitchers who come back after t.j. with great success. I suspect there are a great deal that do not return to pitch well but those do not make good stories so we do not hear much about them. Just a guess.

[jung]

Strength does not seem to be a problem after TJ. The pitcher has to learn how to pitch all over again though. He knows what he wants to do and he knew what result he would get with the old arm. So he is way ahead of the game as he has all of that pitching experience to fall back on. But he does not have the old arm anymore. He may never in his professional pitching life have had the arm he has now.

 

The younger the guy is the more time he has to adapt. The fewer pitches he needs to command to succeed the easier it is to adapt. Power pitchers should tend to have an easier time coming back than multiple pitch, location/control pitchers. Even power pitchers often don't have much of an idea where the ball is going for a period. They often have an arm that is much more lively than what they had.

 

Oddly enough Tommy John himself was a sinker ball pitcher not a power pitcher before his surgery, a soft tosser. After his historic operation, he taught himself how to pitch as in, did not even have the same motion although he still got you out keeping the ball down. So even John is not an example of a guy that came back and was simply able to pick up where he left off with the "new arm".

 

What most people don't realize is that the surgery that bears his name was not initially intended to put John back on the mound again but was intended to allow him to have normal functionality with the arm. I cannot remember when he got the idea that he could pitch again at a major league level but I think he did what you would expect a guy like him to do. He tried throwing a baseball....felt no discomfort and kept throwing. Eventually went to Mike Marshall and together they rebuilt a new motion for him and he was back in business.

[rjortiz]

Tommy John surgery has done wonders for many pitchers.

 

I'd like to see a study of how many of those pitchers were actually good before they had TJ surgery.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have looked and could not find any studies or stats on post t.j. surgery pitching success. Anybody know of any? I've been curious what average changes, if any, there have been and how much it changes by age group. I hear the stories of those pitchers who come back after t.j. with great success. I suspect there are a great deal that do not return to pitch well but those do not make good stories so we do not hear much about them. Just a guess.

 

90% recover, 10% have surgical complications. In terms of velocity, those who return with intact velocity are typically young, under 28 yrs old. Those who see a gain in velocity are those who had chronic tears of the UCL rather than the acute tear (think Strasburg for an acute tear) and are typically younger as well. The older guys coming off TJS tend to lose some velo

[BSN07]

Couple good recent articles that might help answer some questions,

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/11/15/3650488/tommy-john-surgeries-continuing-research-and-analysis

[Bellhorn04]

90% recover, 10% have surgical complications. In terms of velocity, those who return with intact velocity are typically young, under 28 yrs old. Those who see a gain in velocity are those who had chronic tears of the UCL rather than the acute tear (think Strasburg for an acute tear) and are typically younger as well. The older guys coming off TJS tend to lose some velo

 

Is Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals a good comp for Lackey? Carpenter had TJS in 2007.

[BSN07]

a700, have you made your Doubront predictions yet?

[a700hitter]

a700, have you made your Doubront predictions yet?

Not yet.

[BSN07]

Not yet.

 

Ok was just making sure I hadn't missed it somewhere.