The Jacoby Ellsbury trade extravaganza thread

[jung]

Nah we're all set. The guys we have just need to pitch better.

[Palodios]

Ya as long as they don't sign another OF he won't be going anywhere for now.

 

I still think a Salty for SP deal happens. Porcello be nice, but I don't know what Detroit is looking for. I'm hoping they get Jurrjens and stash him in AAA.

 

The big name SP might just not be out there right now. They're probably more likely to add a mid to lower rotation guy for now and look later n the season to see who is now available.

 

The big name SP are never out there. You have to overpay in prospects or in money. No easy decision there, but the Red Sox should have gone the money route.

 

13 million for Haren? 15 million for Mccarthy? 24 million for Guthrie? I get that those destinations may be better fit for the players, but you need to overpay your pitchers, not your hitters, so maybe offering a couple more million than the next guy should have been the plan there.

[SoxSport]

Wilbur gives a different perspective on these short term deals:

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2012/12/is_red_sox_rebu.html

 

He says Henry might be setting the team up for a sale in the near future.

He also says the selloff to the Dodgers was done by upper management, not Cherington, as a number of sources have reported.

[a700hitter]

:thumbsup:

Wilbur gives a different perspective on these short term deals:

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2012/12/is_red_sox_rebu.html

 

He says Henry might be setting the team up for a sale in the near future.

He also says the selloff to the Dodgers was done by upper management, not Cherington, as a number of sources have reported.

That deal had upper managements fingerprints all over it. They probably let Cherington negotiate the prospects coming back. IMO, JH and LL didn't really care if they got anything back. They needed to get enough back that the deal would be approved by Selig. None of the guys that the Dodgers gave up had any career path to the majors for the Dodgers except for the one pitcher coming of TJ (and he probably projects as a bullpen guy)?

[Bellhorn04]

Wilbur gives a different perspective on these short term deals:

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2012/12/is_red_sox_rebu.html

 

He says Henry might be setting the team up for a sale in the near future.

He also says the selloff to the Dodgers was done by upper management, not Cherington, as a number of sources have reported.

 

Wilbur knows nothing more about any of this than we do. Guessy guessy.

 

It's clear we'll be hearing speculation about Henry selling the team from now until it actually happens.

 

FWIW there's growing speculation about the Steinbrenner boys wanting to sell too.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Bellhorn04]

There are perfectly good reasons why the Red Sox would be looking for short term deals other than the 'prepping to sell' theory. For one thing they just got burned on a bunch of longer term deals. Second they've got prospects a year or two away. Guys like Wilbur love the conspiracy stuff.

[Behindenemylines]

Ellsbury is moved only if: 1) they can get a top of the rotation starter or 2) they bring in Hamilton. I don't see either happening and I believe Ellsbury starts the season in Boston.

[BSN07]

I don't care f Henry sells the team or not. Just as long as Selig let's the team go to an owner who's going to spend money. And for how much some group is gonna have to pay for the Red Sox, they are going to want to spend money on the on field product.

 

But Bell's views on the current short term deals seems more reasonable. Maybe ts a combo of both. Maybe it's a baseball wide thing and those 7 year deals are going to only go to guys who sign extensions with their current clubs(Tulo, Kemp, Longoria) and the occasional superstar that makes it to FA. They might stop handing those deals out every year just because player X happens to be the best available that season.

[SoxSport]

Wilbur knows nothing more about any of this than we do. Guessy guessy.

 

It's clear we'll be hearing speculation about Henry selling the team from now until it actually happens.

 

FWIW there's growing speculation about the Steinbrenner boys wanting to sell too.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

The guy in Fox business who originated the rumor stands by it. He says Henry has offered the team up for sale. His source might be one of those Henry contacted.

[Bellhorn04]

The guy in Fox business who originated the rumor stands by it. He says Henry has offered the team up for sale. His source might be one of those Henry contacted.

 

There was a later rumor that Henry was looking to sell part of his interest to another minority shareholder but would remain principal shareholder. That makes a bit more sense to me and may have been the source of the Fox story.

 

If Henry was actively trying to sell the team the story would have spilled out by now...you can't hide something like that from the Boston media.

[SoxSport]

There was a later rumor that Henry was looking to sell part of his interest to another minority shareholder but would remain principal shareholder. That makes a bit more sense to me and may have been the source of the Fox story.

 

If Henry was actively trying to sell the team the story would have spilled out by now...you can't hide something like that from the Boston media.

 

Safe to say selling the team is just another possibility, based on the rumors out there, and based on their current financial state. Their moves so far haven't contradicted that possibility.

 

In the late 1990s, when Harrington was putting the team up for sale, Duquette was suddenly given the green light to sign Manny to a long term deal--for the biggest bucks at the time. The media explanation at the time was the Sox were accumulating assets to jack up the selling price. Harrington suddenly got very generous with FAs after being stingy for awhile. I remember Fenway Park was a pigpen at the time--dirty seats, etc.

 

Henry has behaved the opposite of Harrington up to this point. Of course, the team was way overstretched on spending, so he had to bail out with the Dodger deal. They had no financial room to plug holes. Now, they are nearer to middle ground. The team is more financially sound, and in a better state for Henry either to keep the team or sell. He could go either way.

[Spudboy]

Any successful ( and most unsuccessful businesses ) are up for sale. The entire idea is to yield a profit from your investment. Anyone would be a fool to look the other way when there is interest in your business and someone is willing to hand over hundreds of millions of dollars. Rich guys are very good at this process. That is one of the reasons they are rich.

[DeadHorseSociety]

There are perfectly good reasons why the Red Sox would be looking for short term deals other than the 'prepping to sell' theory. For one thing they just got burned on a bunch of longer term deals. Second they've got prospects a year or two away. Guys like Wilbur love the conspiracy stuff.

 

 

 

Which long term contracts besides Greinke's? Plus, they don't have a flood of blue chip prospects in AA and AAA that will infuse this team with star talent in the coming years. Outside of Xander, Barnes and maybe Webster that is.

[DocHolliday]

Which long term contracts besides Greinke's? Plus, they don't have a flood of blue chip prospects in AA and AAA that will infuse this team with star talent in the coming years. Outside of Xander, Barnes and maybe Webster that is.

 

Bradley not considered star talent?

[rjortiz]

Bradley not considered star talent?

 

No. He's not a star. Boegaerts is the only one in our system that you could say has that kind of potential.

[DocHolliday]

No. He's not a star. Boegaerts is the only one in our system that you could say has that kind of potential.

 

Its certainly arbitrary to debate what "star" power is. But if you're going to throw names like Bogaerts, Barnes, and Webster out there as potential "stars", Bradley's name certainly has to be included at this point.

 

At this point, I'd definitely put Bradley's potential higher than Webster. Certainly not the same potential as Bogaerts, but nonetheless, its pretty much unanimous among the team and independent minor league talent evaluators that Bradley has a high ceiling.

[example1]

So maybe he's the perfect candidate to make available in a trade for a SP. what is his absolute peak comp? An elite multi year gold glove CF with decent power and okay speed? High OBP with low SLG, maybe a few years over .900 OPS but more likely in the .800s. Sound reasonable? A tori hunter type? With better OBP and worse power? I'm just guessing.

 

He's coming off an electric campaign in milb and his value could easily diminish with injury or just meeting better competition. Great talent but whereas Barnes might be untouchable, Bradley might be reluctantly available.

[BSN07]

So maybe he's the perfect candidate to make available in a trade for a SP. what is his absolute peak comp? An elite multi year gold glove CF with decent power and okay speed? High OBP with low SLG, maybe a few years over .900 OPS but more likely in the .800s. Sound reasonable? A tori hunter type? With better OBP and worse power? I'm just guessing.

 

He's coming off an electric campaign in milb and his value could easily diminish with injury or just meeting better competition. Great talent but whereas Barnes might be untouchable, Bradley might be reluctantly available.

 

With Victorino on the team for 3 years it's more conceivable that they could move Bradley. it didn't make alot of sense with Ellsbury getting ready to walk and Bradley being 1-2 years before he's most likely truly ready. Bogaerts and Barnes are the only untouchables in my book right now. And I could be convinced on Barnes in a deal for an young ace type. But I'd really like to see him come up on the Sox. Bogaerts is an absolute no for me unless it's Stanton, Trout, Harper coming back. And that ain't happening. I have high hopes for him. I think he might be the next Hanley but possibly better. I think he's more athletic and has a way better attitude.

[example1]

With Victorino on the team for 3 years it's more conceivable that they could move Bradley. it didn't make alot of sense with Ellsbury getting ready to walk and Bradley being 1-2 years before he's most likely truly ready. Bogaerts and Barnes are the only untouchables in my book right now. And I could be convinced on Barnes in a deal for an young ace type. But I'd really like to see him come up on the Sox. Bogaerts is an absolute no for me unless it's Stanton, Trout, Harper coming back. And that ain't happening. I have high hopes for him. I think he might be the next Hanley but possibly better. I think he's more athletic and has a way better attitude.

 

I don't think they can afford to move Barnes for anyone other than truly elite, no doubt pieces. That's probably what you are saying too. Even for a guy like Bauer it would be a stretch unless he was the main significant piece. Felix? Yeah, I'd do that.

 

I'm not interested in moving Bradley but realize it might be a good idea if the right offer comes along. A mediocre season in AA from him and his value drops considerably.

 

Honestly, I'm disappointed that the Rays got Myers (in an enormous player heist, too). The Sox are in a tough spot where they don't have the depth to be competitive if they deal Lester and can't afford the PR or financial implications of a full rebuild. Also, the other pitching they would need isn't really out there on the market. Signing Sanchez would make up part of the difference but not enough.

 

Our best hope is that Lester returns to form as the pitcher he was the five previous seasons. There is precedent for good pitchers experiencing a bump in the road like this. Cliff Lee comes to mind.

[BSN07]

I don't think they can afford to move Barnes for anyone other than truly elite, no doubt pieces. That's probably what you are saying too. Even for a guy like Bauer it would be a stretch unless he was the main significant piece. Felix? Yeah, I'd do that.

 

I'm not interested in moving Bradley but realize it might be a good idea if the right offer comes along. A mediocre season in AA from him and his value drops considerably.

 

Honestly, I'm disappointed that the Rays got Myers (in an enormous player heist, too). The Sox are in a tough spot where they don't have the depth to be competitive if they deal Lester and can't afford the PR or financial implications of a full rebuild. Also, the other pitching they would need isn't really out there on the market. Signing Sanchez would make up part of the difference but not enough.

 

Our best hope is that Lester returns to form as the pitcher he was the five previous seasons. There is precedent for good pitchers experiencing a bump in the road like this. Cliff Lee comes to mind.

 

Like I said in the other thread, part of me is glad they are trying to contend this season but part of me thinks having that package TB just got for Lester(if it was that kind of offer, I think Friedman took KC to school so maybe they couldn't have got as much) would have been better.

 

Barnes

De la Rosa

Webster

Workman

Odorizzi

Montgomery

 

+Myers

 

all on the cusp in 2014 would have been sweet.

[DeadHorseSociety]

Bradley not considered star talent?

 

 

Bradley's a slower Denard Span.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bradley's a slower Denard Span.

 

Maybe 08-09 Span, when he had an OBP in the high .380's, low .390's.

 

Not a 2010-2012, when he had a combined .334 OBP.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No. He's not a star. Boegaerts is the only one in our system that you could say has that kind of potential.

 

De La Rosa anyone?

[BSN07]

De La Rosa anyone?

 

I think people are down on him because he hasn't proven being back fully from TJS. If he does people will come around. Guy has high 90's stuff.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think people are down on him because he hasn't proven being back fully from TJS. If he does people will come around. Guy has high 90's stuff.

 

High 90's in the 7th inning as a starting pitcher.

 

That's extremely, extremely rare.

[DocHolliday]

High 90's in the 7th inning as a starting pitcher.

 

That's extremely, extremely rare.

 

I like the promise, but I'm waiting to see more when he returns to health.

 

That being said, can't understand why some on this board are discrediting Bradley. He did about as much as anyone could've expected of him in his first year of pro ball, even making the adjustment at AA. And, any reputable source that follows the minor leagues projects him as an above average regular in the ML.

[BSN07]

I like the promise, but I'm waiting to see more when he returns to health.

 

That being said, can't understand why some on this board are discrediting Bradley. He did about as much as anyone could've expected of him in his first year of pro ball, even making the adjustment at AA. And, any reputable source that follows the minor leagues projects him as an above average regular in the ML.

 

Most aren't discrediting. Mostly just see his value is high and since he's young there's always the chance of regression, hurting his value. With Victorino signed it's easier to move him and see what develops over the next 3 seasons then it was when he was likely Ellsburys replacement come 2014. Don't look at more people being ok moving him as a sign of discredit. The willingness is the only thing that's changed as the circumstances have changed.

[rjortiz]

De La Rosa anyone?

 

I like him, but he's still working on his control and secondary pitches.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I like him, but he's still working on his control and secondary pitches.

 

Still, as a 22 year old he posted a 3.71 ERA in 10 starts. His average velocity (per Brooks) is 96.57. Thats freaking heat.

 

Given, it was a SSS, but in his 10 starts his xFIP was 3.55.

 

As Keith Law put it, if he can just have an average slider (fix his arm slot, which shouldn't be difficult), this kid has an ace ceiling.

[Station 13]

I actually watch Ruby start prior to his injury and I was pretty impressed with the arsenal. If he doesn't make it as a starter, he's a potential great BP arm.