Lester on the block

[seabeachfred]

You usually cherry pick and split numbers in order to justify the unjustifiable. Sorry, it's the way you are. Is still the pitching there? IDK. He has shown a decline, that is a fact. If you do not want to see that, is up to you. You split his numbers in order to prove that his pitching still there, hopefully still there... In the end...It's your opinion but nobody knows. Sorry but If he keeps posting high ERAs (hopefully no, if he stays), your splits will not have sense. He will suck, plain and simple.

 

I'm not concerned about Lester's future, If he stays fine, If he walks fine... I'm concern because our FO office has not done nothing in order to fix this team. Almost forget, we have to be patience, like last off-season.

 

Patience is a nice virtue to have iortiz but to me what seems to be going on is nothing more than notorious procrastination, as if doing nothing won't get anyone in trouble. I have a pal here named Elktonnick and he really came up with a gem. He said it either here or on Sawxheads that given the choice of making a tough decision on a personnel matter or doing nothing, Cherington would rather do nothing. He has me convinced.

[Bellhorn04]

He has been declining for two seasons. People forget that after 2011, Lester was talking about having a rebound season in 2012.

 

Rebound from September/11 that is. On September 6/11 Lester had a 2.93 ERA. Then suddenly, he and the rest of the staff were mysteriously infected with the 'Cantpitchworthashit' virus, that still lingers.

[User Name]

Patience is a nice virtue to have iortiz but to me what seems to be going on is nothing more than notorious procrastination, as if doing nothing won't get anyone in trouble. I have a pal here named Elktonnick and he really came up with a gem. He said it either here or on Sawxheads that given the choice of making a tough decision on a personnel matter or doing nothing, Cherington would rather do nothing. He has me convinced.

 

Which is a ridiculous thing to say because no one here knows Cherington personally. On the other hand, do we even know if he has any power?

[jung]

I certainly do not know this but I think there is a chance that the Sox upper management really does not have much confidence in Baseball Operations. If that is the case then they need to make a change. I am suggesting that if there is a logjam....a place down there at Fenway where there is maybe some degree of unwillingness to act it may well be above BC's pay grade. If in fact they have no confidence in Baseball Ops but won't make changes then BC is being left as a placeholder, indefinitely.

 

If I had to guess, my guess would be that the Sox will end up making one really big blockbuster deal this offseason....big enough to draw the attention and direct participation of of LL and JH and after that, a bunch of smaller deals that don't really amount to much but that allows the guys that have been languishing down on the farm a chance to play.

 

in part that is why I think Hamilton may really be on the radar screen. The Sox get Hamilton and wait for an opening to bring in a serious arm for the rotation while they wait for the guys like the B's etc to come up. In the meantime, Kalish, Iggy and Lavs get to play and the Sox get to really figure out what they have there. All leads to a major push in 2014 behind a combination of the B's coming up, the guys that work out this year, Hamilton and Ortiz holding down the middle of the order and an arm or two brought in between now and the start of the 2014 season.

[jung]

By the way by smaller deals I mean deals for guys that are trying to reestablish some value or have some degree of risk attached to them but that come without hefty price tags in years and maybe not even in dollars. I suspect that Hamilton comes in to draw crowds and solidify the middle of the order with Ortiz. But the real plan ends up pointing to 2014 when the Sox will:

- still have Ortiz have Hamilton

- the B's starting to arrive on the scene,

- the young guys playing this year that work out

- the guys they sifted through from these smaller deals finding the gems in them.

 

Somewhere along the way they add at least one really solid arm to the rotation I hope and bang they are rolling in 2014.

[Elktonnick]

I certainly do not know this but I think there is a chance that the Sox upper management really does not have much confidence in Baseball Operations. If that is the case then they need to make a change. I am suggesting that if there is a logjam....a place down there at Fenway where there is maybe some degree of unwillingness to act it may well be above BC's pay grade. If in fact they have no confidence in Baseball Ops but won't make changes then BC is being left as a placeholder, indefinitely.

 

If I had to guess, my guess would be that the Sox will end up making one really big blockbuster deal this offseason....big enough to draw the attention and direct participation of of LL and JH and after that, a bunch of smaller deals that don't really amount to much but that allows the guys that have been languishing down on the farm a chance to play.

 

in part that is why I think Hamilton may really be on the radar screen. The Sox get Hamilton and wait for an opening to bring in a serious arm for the rotation while they wait for the guys like the B's etc to come up. In the meantime, Kalish, Iggy and Lavs get to play and the Sox get to really figure out what they have there. All leads to a major push in 2014 behind a combination of the B's coming up, the guys that work out this year, Hamilton and Ortiz holding down the middle of the order and an arm or two brought in between now and the start of the 2014 season.

 

I cwertainly don't disagree with your analysis. One of the key factors which leads me to believe that Cherries is more a coordinator of baseball operations than a GM in the traditional mode are the published reports that JH wanted Bill James to play a larger role and reporting to ownership not to Cherrington. The second point is that JH and LL not only played the key roles in the A-Gon Beckett deal but also in the negotiations for Farrell as well. One wonders how much independence Cherrington has.

 

If you recall when Cherrington was originally promoted to his current position those who knew him well in the media characterized him as very deliberate overly so. That characterization has certainly been proven accurate by events since Epstein's departure. One has to conclude that's why he was promoted. His job is to propose but the big boys (JH and LL) actually make the decisions.

[Bellhorn04]

I cwertainly don't disagree with your analysis. One of the key factors which leads me to believe that Cherries is more a coordinator of baseball operations than a GM in the traditional mode are the published reports that JH wanted Bill James to play a larger role and reporting to ownership not to Cherrington. The second point is that JH and LL not only played the key roles in the A-Gon Beckett deal but also in the negotiations for Farrell as well. One wonders how much independence Cherrington has.

 

If you recall when Cherrington was originally promoted to his current position those who knew him well in the media characterized him as very deliberate overly so. That characterization has certainly been proven accurate by events since Epstein's departure. One has to conclude that's why he was promoted. His job is to propose but the big boys (JH and LL) actually make the decisions.

 

I find that plausible. I could see Cherington's role as sifting through all the information and putting forth proposals. It makes some sense knowing what we do about Lucchino's involvement, the Valentine hiring, the power struggle with Theo etc.

[Lord Snow]

Of course Cherington isn't going to have free reign. He is a second year GM with no track record of success. In fact 2012 turned out to be a very bad rookie campaign for him. Although he will get a mulligan from upper management because he cleaned out a lot of Theo's mess and essentially saved the near future of the club.

 

Adrian Gonzalez struggled mightily in 2012, and definitely didn't live up to the $22M/year he is getting paid. He wasn't a bad player but to me he just wasn't worth the money. I'm a firm believer that $20M+/year offensive players need to produce absolute minimums of .280/.360/.500 to be worth their contract last season Gonzalez didn't hit any of those totals, he did in 2011 but he produced well above his career averages as well which is largely unsustainable.

 

And Carl Crawford? He is overpaid by about $11M per year. At 7-years $70M he wouldn't have been a bad signing. But his contract is just ludicrous. It's the type of contract that handcuffs a team for the better part of a decade. Good riddance.

 

The pressure is definitely on Cherington. He has immense payroll flexibility and only one bad contract in John Lackey (2 if you count Jonny Gomes) who is manageable owed only $31M over the next 2 years.

[a700hitter]

The pressure is definitely on Cherington. He has immense payroll flexibility and only one bad contract in John Lackey (2 if you count Jonny Gomes) who is manageable owed only $31M over the next 2 years.

I agree with your post, but there is the scary possibility that for reasons not known to us that they don't have a lot of payroll flexibility. There's probably a lot going on with the owner's finances- and some of it might not be very pretty.

[jung]

Well I hate to say it but it does make you wonder if they are waiting for the initial returns on ticket sales before deciding what to do next. While I always expect the Sox and any other team for that matter to care first about the top and bottom line, I could also be convinced that it goes so far this year to include, checking the early ticket sales and turning the money tap just as far as they think they need to go to make that ticket sale line move. Would be a shame if that is what is going on.

[Elktonnick]

Lucchino was interviewed on the D& C radio show this AM. He refused to either confirm or deny that the Red Sox were in discussions with the Royals about a Lester deal.

[BSN07]

Lucchino was interviewed on the D& C radio show this AM. He refused to either confirm or deny that the Red Sox were in discussions with the Royals about a Lester deal.

 

That means they have talked. If it was a BS report he would have called it that. He doesn't want to comment because it might happen or it might not happen. No reason to back yourself into a corner with a hard line answer. Still IMO it means they have had trade talks concerning him.

 

ex1 said he mentioned something about a COF acquisition coming soon. Could be the Myers deal?

[jung]

Well like I said before I will be really surprised if they give up on Lester with Farrell coming to town and so many holes to fill already in the rotation. That said how typical would it be for the Sox to trade pitching for a "potential" bat even when they are already starved for pitching.

 

Tom Yawkey walks back through the door every 5 minutes down there at Fenway. There is a thought that will probably send half the board running for their oxygen masks.

[Lord Snow]

Well I hate to say it but it does make you wonder if they are waiting for the initial returns on ticket sales before deciding what to do next. While I always expect the Sox and any other team for that matter to care first about the top and bottom line, I could also be convinced that it goes so far this year to include, checking the early ticket sales and turning the money tap just as far as they think they need to go to make that ticket sale line move. Would be a shame if that is what is going on.

 

I disagree. The money in the tv ratings just as much as the ticket sales, if not more. The Sox own NESN. If the team is bad, less people watch, and that is less money NESN can charge for advertising. The Red Sox will have a healthy payroll next season. I'm guessing it will be at least $150M, things just haven't taken shape yet.

[jung]

The TV ad rates for this year will be based on last year's numbers. So whatever that number is ...it is done for 2013. They will sell spots...it all boils down to who buys them and at what rate. If things are bad...plan on fewer Lexus ads and more Weed Whacker ads. But that is determined by the rate. Either Weed Whacker types can afford to advertise on Sox games or they can't. No slight to Weed Whacker or their parent. The spots will be filled though.

 

"yes folks do you wonder how that Fenway lawn always looks so manicured....the trusty Weed Whacker of course.":D:D

[a700hitter]

I disagree. The money in the tv ratings just as much as the ticket sales, if not more. The Sox own NESN. If the team is bad, less people watch, and that is less money NESN can charge for advertising. The Red Sox will have a healthy payroll next season. I'm guessing it will be at least $150M, things just haven't taken shape yet.

 

Doesn't the largest amount of revenue still come from ticket sales?

[BSN07]

Doesn't the largest amount of revenue still come from ticket sales?

 

In the case of the Red Sox I would think it does. I don't think that's the case for the LA teams now. It be interesting to know what they bring in per game on average for a season.

[jung]

I can't remember which it is with the Dodgers but I think they don't own their sport's TV network but have a huge contract with one that will bring them just monster $$'s. FSG does own NESN so the ad revenues are something they have a stake in. LA has their contract and they will get paid regardless of the Network's ad revenue. The Dodgers won't have to worry about that again until their contract is up for renewal.

[BSN07]

I can't remember which it is with the Dodgers but I think they don't own their sport's TV network but have a huge contract with one that will bring them just monster $$'s. FSG does own NESN so the ad revenues are something they have a stake in. LA has their contract and they will get paid regardless of the Network's ad revenue. The Dodgers won't have to worry about that again until their contract is up for renewal.

 

Fox is paying the Dodgers 200M a year. 3x what NESN brings the Red Sox. They are the new financial Juggernaut. First time in my baseball life that some team could outspend the Yankees.

[Lord Snow]

Fox is paying the Dodgers 200M a year. 3x what NESN brings the Red Sox. They are the new financial Juggernaut. First time in my baseball life that some team could outspend the Yankees.

 

All the same. There is big money in TV.

 

The Red Sox need to field a team that people will watch 162 days a year otherwise they'll see their profits go out the window.

[SoxSport]

All the same. There is big money in TV.

 

The Red Sox need to field a team that people will watch 162 days a year otherwise they'll see their profits go out the window.

 

And where do you think that big TV money comes from? It comes from our cable bills--about 50% of our cable bill goes to TV sports. regardless of whether you watch sports or not. That's the real crime--and one of the reasons why TV is swimming in money and the sports salaries keep going up. They just increase the cable bills to pay for it.

[Lucienbel]

Well like I said before I will be really surprised if they give up on Lester with Farrell coming to town and so many holes to fill already in the rotation. That said how typical would it be for the Sox to trade pitching for a "potential" bat even when they are already starved for pitching.

 

Tom Yawkey walks back through the door every 5 minutes down there at Fenway. There is a thought that will probably send half the board running for their oxygen masks.

 

I'd also be pretty surprised. It seems like a bonus to signing Farrell was the fact that he had worked well with the pitchers in the past. Granted, he's not in that capacity anymore, I'm sure there's still a large amount of interest in him helping and giving input that he can too.

[jung]

If the Sox were rich in pitching I could see Lester going for a bat but they are not. They are so NOT RICH in pitching that like I posted earlier I don't think it really matters whether Lester would be pegged as a 1 or a 2 or a 3. He eats innings...struggling or not he eats innings. He does not eat #1 rotation guy innings but he definitely eats rotation 2 innings. I think the Sox pen is on pretty thin ice considering how overused they have been two years running and right now chances are pretty good that they will be overused again this year. Once they get blown out more than lets say twice in a year, they are like a bicycle racer suffering oxygen death. All they can do is stop. We have already gotten some healthy doses of what happens then.

[Behindenemylines]

If the Sox were rich in pitching I could see Lester going for a bat but they are not. They are so NOT RICH in pitching that like I posted earlier I don't think it really matters whether Lester would be pegged as a 1 or a 2 or a 3. He eats innings...struggling or not he eats innings. He does not eat #1 rotation guy innings but he definitely eats rotation 2 innings. I think the Sox pen is on pretty thin ice considering how overused they have been two years running and right now chances are pretty good that they will be overused again this year. Once they get blown out more than lets say twice in a year, they are like a bicycle racer suffering oxygen death. All they can do is stop. We have already gotten some healthy doses of what happens then.

 

I agree that Lester is a guarentee innings eater for the Sox. If the Sox trade Lester then 2013 is a total bridge year, and a total rebuild with youth is underway. I can't see them trading from a weakness of SP and still be competitive in 2013. SP continues to be their biggest hole. Hopefully, BC starts to fill some of the holes next week in Nashville.

[RedSoxNC84]

All the same. There is big money in TV.

 

The Red Sox need to field a team that people will watch 162 days a year otherwise they'll see their profits go out the window.

 

Already counting them out of the postseason??

[Plumpamania]

Wil Myers for Lester should be a no brainer for us.

[jung]

I don't know that it is that easy to give up a 28 year old experienced, reasonably successful pitcher that admittedly has some work to do but is healthy for a guy that as yet has not had a ML at bat.

 

At Lester's age of 28 it is not IMO an easy decision to make even if the Sox are giving up on 2013. Make no mistake though....taking a prospect for Lester would make 2013 a bridge year in every sense of the word.

[Plumpamania]

It already is and Myers is as close to can't miss as you can't get w/o saying Trout or Harper.

[jung]

Not in "every sense of the word". There is not able to really compete for the division bridge year and at least remain competitive for a WC with an eye toward the immediate (as in 2014) bridge year. Giving up a 28 year old starting pitcher gives up on even a WC effort in 2013 and may even bring the plan for 2014 into question.

[Dojji]

It already is and Myers is as close to can't miss as you can't get w/o saying Trout or Harper.

 

Yeah but there's a difference between identifying that you have little chance, and giving yourself no chance at all.