Rotation

[dupree]

Those are some remarkable numbers. Man, what a durable group...Doubront and Lackey each over 200 innings!

 

Bill must have created some new projection models.

 

Must have. But why is Clay only at 190 inning & Lackey is over 200

The #2 should have better numbers than the #4

I dont see Doubrant & Lackey pitching to those standards

but what do i know Bill James is paid to analysis & im not

 

I hope hes right & if the FO is seeing those same #s we are only a middle rotation away from being right back at the top of the talks of being a contender on a day to day basis

[DocHolliday]

Must have. But why is Clay only at 190 inning & Lackey is over 200

The #2 should have better numbers than the #4

I dont see Doubrant & Lackey pitching to those standards

but what do i know Bill James is paid to analysis & im not

 

I hope hes right & if the FO is seeing those same #s we are only a middle rotation away from being right back at the top of the talks of being a contender on a day to day basis

 

I'd say the Doubront and Lackey IP projections are atleast 20 IP over what would be expected.

[a700hitter]

Those are some remarkable numbers. Man, what a durable group...Doubront and Lackey each over 200 innings!

 

Bill must have created some new projection models.

James clearly has gone nuts. It should have been obvious that he had gone nuts when he protected Paterno in the Sandusky case in that interview.

[a700hitter]

I think Ben should consider pursuing Chris Capuano from the Dodgers. The Dodgers have probably squeezed him from a starting role.

[Station 13]

I think Ben should consider pursuing Chris Capuano from the Dodgers. The Dodgers have probably squeezed him from a starting role.

 

he would give up about 40 bombs in the AL East.

[kapsis21]

Found this interesting.

 

Here are Bill James projections for the Sox pitching in 2013:

 

Jon Lester: 211 IP, 3.72 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 190 IP, 3.64 ERA

Felix Doubront: 201 IP, 3.70 ERA

John Lackey: 209 IP, 4.05 ERA

 

According to James, the Sox pitching is about a mid-3's ERA guy away from being a very good rotation.

 

It's interesting because his predictions are typically very conservative IMO.

 

that name is Anibal Sanchez. his 2012 salary was 8 million.

 

give that guy 13mill a year for first 3 years and 4th and 5th with incentives on completing innings etc

5 year 70 mill.. seems like no one is in the market to give him a 100 mill deal.. or we give him a 1 year deal 1 year 13 mill so he can test the market out again since he is not getting any offers or it would seem that way.

[rjortiz]

He's getting a lot more than that.

[dupree]

Being the 2nd best pitcher he is more than 5/70

Any other year with a better crop of FA pitchers he would be in that range

[Palodios]

Found this interesting.

 

Here are Bill James projections for the Sox pitching in 2013:

 

Jon Lester: 211 IP, 3.72 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 190 IP, 3.64 ERA

Felix Doubront: 201 IP, 3.70 ERA

John Lackey: 209 IP, 4.05 ERA

 

According to James, the Sox pitching is about a mid-3's ERA guy away from being a very good rotation.

 

It's interesting because his predictions are typically very conservative IMO.

 

He also projects Iglesias playing 139 games, Kalish playing 129, and Ross catching 93. I would bet that he's counting on the Red Sox to have elite-elite defense in all of the most important defensive positions.

[Behindenemylines]

I don't know how you can predict Lackey pitching over 200 innings coming after missing a whole season with TJ. Just as bad is Doubront pitching 200. It would be a miracle if one pitched that much, but both is not likely. If you count Lester that is three pitchers over 200 innings. Not realistic because the four league championship teams last year only had two 200 inning pitchers each last year. Sox still need a SP that not only eats innings, but pitches effectively.

[User Name]

James' model not only uses a compilation of past data, but also a "progression" model that assumes how a pitcher should behave given his past history, current age, and the assumption of freedom from injury.

[SoxFanForsyth]

On a side note, but still on James projections, he has Middlebrooks line as .277/.316/.490, 29 HR, 99 RBI. Give me that line from my 25 year old 3B any day of the week please.

 

That's over 565 PA. If he clips the 600 PA mark, he'll be at 31 HR/105RBI.

[Lucienbel]

James' model not only uses a compilation of past data, but also a "progression" model that assumes how a pitcher should behave given his past history, current age, and the assumption of freedom from injury.

 

At this point in time I don't think we should be assuming how any of our pitchers should be behaving in any manner. I do think the pitching will improve, but Bill James is thinking a miracle here.

[User Name]

At this point in time I don't think we should be assuming how any of our pitchers should be behaving in any manner. I do think the pitching will improve, but Bill James is thinking a miracle here.

 

That's why i bolded the should. With all of the under-performance the Red Sox got from the pitching staff last year, specially in the IP department, how can two head cases, a post-op guy and a sophomore all break the 190 IP? With above league average ERA's to boot.

[Lucienbel]

That's why i bolded the should. With all of the under-performance the Red Sox got from the pitching staff last year, specially in the IP department, how can two head cases, a post-op guy and a sophomore all break the 190 IP? With above league average ERA's to boot.

 

Wasn't going at you, kind of realized it sort of looks like that though. Going after those numbers though. Sorry, it's getting late. And with that said, before I go to bed, I've kind of settled on the thought that Edwin Jackson would probably be our best realistic choice (barring trades). So now I'm kind of hoping that they sign him. Part of me wanted them to last year, a lot of me wants them to this year.

[jung]

how can two head cases, a post-op guy and a sophomore all break the 190 IP? With above league average ERA's to boot.

 

"Boss boss have I got good news"

 

"What is it Ben...can't you see I am busy planning my next European vacation."

 

"I just bought this lamp from the antique shop down the street. The shop keeper assures me that if I just rub the lamp a genie will appear granting me three wishes......What do ya' think I'm gonna wish for boss?"

 

"Well I am sure you are going to tell me anyway...So, go ahead, but hurry up....I can't be expected to spend much time with you when I have so many suckers, I mean loyal fans to convince to come on down to Fenway this year."

 

"Well I think I got three good wishes here boss. First, I am gonna' wish for peace on earth....second, I am gonna' wish for good will to all men and I guess women too"

 

"Gee Ben you have come a long way son.....you really think you can toss women in there too and wish good will for them as well? God we have become a progressive organization."

 

Well this is the best one boss, I am going to wish that our starting rotation just as it is will all pitch over 200 innings each and post ERA's at or below 4.00! What do ya' think boss?"

 

"Well, I think you might have a shot at the first two Ben but that third one....man that is gonna' have to be one hell of a genie ya' got in there son....Well anyway let me know how it all works out but right now your making me late for my manicurist....these fangs need constant sharpening so I can sink them into the next poor unsuspecting Sox fan that happens by my door". When ya' need the volume of turkeys....I mean suckers...I mean fans that I need to keep the ole' man happy....ya' can't spend much time reelin' each of em' in....ya' know what I mean son!"

 

"Your my hero boss...I could only aspire to some day be as slithery as you are.....actually I think I would be happy if I had a personality or presence of any kind at all."

 

"Keep at it son....at the rate you are going you might have a shot at making it to toad one day....snake may be just beyond your scope...but, ya' never know."

 

Yes folks....just another day down at the ole' ballpark.::D

[Bellhorn04]

Are the Red Sox considering A. Sanchez at all?

 

If you include his postseason numbers last year, he posted a 3.67 ERA in 216 innings. Even better, if you use only his numbers with Detroit, including postseason, he posted a 3.32 ERA in 95 innings.

 

Sanchez's asking price of 15 million is not unreasonable considering what other FA's are getting. The 6 years is obviously a killer. What about 5/80? Why not? Sanchez probably projects as well or better over the next 5 years as anybody we've got.

[BSN07]

Are the Red Sox considering A. Sanchez at all?

 

If you include his postseason numbers last year, he posted a 3.67 ERA in 216 innings. Even better, if you use only his numbers with Detroit, including postseason, he posted a 3.32 ERA in 95 innings.

 

Sanchez's asking price of 15 million is not unreasonable considering what other FA's are getting. The 6 years is obviously a killer. What about 5/80? Why not? Sanchez probably projects as well or better over the next 5 years as anybody we've got.

 

It depends on his price. At 4/60M they may consider him. At 5-6 years? it's doubtful. He's a guaranteed overpay at this point considering the SP shortage.

[Bellhorn04]

It depends on his price. At 4/60M they may consider him. At 5-6 years? it's doubtful. He's a guaranteed overpay at this point considering the SP shortage.

 

Sure it's an overpay. But will there be a time in the foreseeable future that there won't be an SP shortage, or that you won't have to overpay to acquire a starter? I have my doubts.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have done some encouraging things so far this offseason, but not in the area of starting pitching. The offer they made to Dempster is not a good sign at all. If they don't do something better than that, they're going to end up looking like the same old dumbasses in spite of good moves in other areas.

[BSN07]

Sure it's an overpay. But will there be a time in the foreseeable future that there won't be an SP shortage, or that you won't have to overpay to acquire a starter? I have my doubts.

 

That's not a way to approach FA SP. The last time the Sox went with this kind of thought they landed Lackey... And he's had meatball problems ever since.

 

To be honest there's no one worth more then a one year commitment out there. The Sox shouldn't strap themselves long term with anyone this year.

[Palodios]

The guys the Red Sox have been focusing on scare me quite a bit. Dempster, Lohse, Dickey, Liriano. I sure hope that is just smoke, and they go after better targets. Marcum, Garza, Jackson interests me a lot more, but I haven't heard much at all about the Red Sox having interest.

[Lucienbel]

The guys the Red Sox have been focusing on scare me quite a bit. Dempster, Lohse, Dickey, Liriano. I sure hope that is just smoke, and they go after better targets. Marcum, Garza, Jackson interests me a lot more, but I haven't heard much at all about the Red Sox having interest.

 

Totally forgot Marcum was on the market too. Guy is far from bad, and pitched pretty decent in the AL East while he was here. Actually, can't really understand why his name hasn't come up a little more. He probably wouldn't be a terrible choice either.

[example1]

The guys the Red Sox have been focusing on scare me quite a bit. Dempster, Lohse, Dickey, Liriano. I sure hope that is just smoke, and they go after better targets. Marcum, Garza, Jackson interests me a lot more, but I haven't heard much at all about the Red Sox having interest.

 

Yeah, it is odd. Perhaps Marcum is known to be too risky or hates Boston or something? He in particular seems like a guy the Sox could make a sizeable take it or leave it offer to.

 

My only hope is that BC has something more significant in the works here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Been really quiet lately.

 

Too quiet almost. Not even any smoke or rumors.

[Bellhorn04]

To be honest there's no one worth more then a one year commitment out there. The Sox shouldn't strap themselves long term with anyone this year.

 

It's debatable. Who's going to be available next year? Does anybody even know at this point?

 

If what you're saying is correct, they should have moved on Haren or McCarthy.

[a700hitter]

The guys the Red Sox have been focusing on scare me quite a bit. Dempster, Lohse, Dickey, Liriano. I sure hope that is just smoke, and they go after better targets. Marcum, Garza, Jackson interests me a lot more, but I haven't heard much at all about the Red Sox having interest.

Other than Buchholz, our entire rotation (all 3 of them) scares me.

[dupree]

Peter Gammons just reported on Hot Stove this morning that the Red Sox believe prospect Steven Wright may very well slot into the rotation this year. That he is the next R.A. Dickey throws his knuckleball at 82mph. That he has pitched very well & that the Red Sox love a knuckleball thrower slotted into a rotation to break up hitter's getting locked in

 

Maybe we all have been wrong & thinking they will go out & get free agent pitchers and just stay in house and bring kids up from the farm

[a700hitter]

Peter Gammons just reported on Hot Stove this morning that the Red Sox believe prospect Steven Wright may very well slot into the rotation this year. That he is the next R.A. Dickey throws his knuckleball at 82mph. That he has pitched very well & that the Red Sox love a knuckleball thrower slotted into a rotation to break up hitter's getting locked in

 

Maybe we all have been wrong & thinking they will go out & get free agent pitchers and just stay in house and bring kids up from the farm

Good God another knuckleballer! This team needs to get some top pitching evaluators into the organization.

[kapsis21]

Are the Red Sox considering A. Sanchez at all?

 

If you include his postseason numbers last year, he posted a 3.67 ERA in 216 innings. Even better, if you use only his numbers with Detroit, including postseason, he posted a 3.32 ERA in 95 innings.

 

Sanchez's asking price of 15 million is not unreasonable considering what other FA's are getting. The 6 years is obviously a killer. What about 5/80? Why not? Sanchez probably projects as well or better over the next 5 years as anybody we've got.

 

exactly my point. i was thinking 13 mill but 15 mill is not a farcry, we need to get 1 starter that has shown some poise and the list was Greinke Haren Sanchez Jackson .. rest are not a sureshot...

 

We need to get Anibal Sanchez. i can see the rotation get pretty solid with him..