Rotation

[Palodios]

I'm gong out on a limb here, but I think IF healthy Doubront is going to be the biggest surprise in the rotation this season. I'll be sure to put it in the "Bold Predictions" thread as soon as one pops up

 

If there isn't one by the end of the night, I'll throw one up there:lol:

[BSN07]

If there isn't one by the end of the night, I'll throw one up there:lol:

 

I was actually expecting it within like 5 mins of that post hahaha

 

I'm gonna have some doozies

[a700hitter]

I'm gong out on a limb here, but I think IF healthy Doubront is going to be the biggest surprise in the rotation this season. I'll be sure to put it in the "Bold Predictions" thread as soon as one pops up

Be a little more specific. Do your best Bill James. What kind of numbers are you projecting?

[BSN07]

Be a little more specific. Do your best Bill James. What kind of numbers are you projecting?

 

IF healthy( I am worried about his innings jump), these are my predictions(I will make sure to add them in the thread Pal and I were joking about)

 

17-10 190 IP 3.90 ERA 200+K 95BB 1.30 WHIP

 

 

And yes I know a lot of people aren't going to agree with this, but that's what makes it a bold prediction. I'm gonna make a thread lol

[a700hitter]

IF healthy( I am worried about his innings jump), these are my predictions(I will make sure to add them in the thread Pal and I were joking about)

 

17-10 190 IP 3.90 ERA 200+K 95BB 1.30 WHIP

 

 

And yes I know a lot of people aren't going to agree with this, but that's what makes it a bold prediction. I'm gonna make a thread lol

Stop with the hedging about injuries. Durability is baked into your prediction, so we will hold you to it if he gets injured. How about a signature bet? I post my projections and whoever comes closer on more categories win.

[a700hitter]

on a side note...no disrespect to anyone on this board, but there are a large percentage of folks here who are super negative. Understandably, to a point given the recent terrible seasons etc. But come on people, lol.

In he ALE poll, out of 19 votes so far, only 1 person voted that the Red Sox would win the division. Either the positive posters don't think the team has much of a chance or they didn't vote. There's no reason not to vote, because the votes are anonymous.

[BSN07]

Stop with the hedging about injuries. Durability is baked into your prediction, so we will hold you to it if he gets injured. How about a signature bet? I post my projections and whoever comes closer on more categories win.

 

My prediction is based on what I think Doubront can do in a full season. No I shouldn't have added if healthy. I will stand behind the fact I think he goes a full season.

[BSN07]

In he ALE poll, out of 19 votes so far, only 1 person voted that the Red Sox would win the division. Either the positive posters don't think the team has much of a chance or they didn't vote. There's no reason not to vote, because the votes are anonymous.

 

I voted for TB. They have the best SP and the least amount ?. Who finishes behind them is a crap shoot.

[a700hitter]

My prediction is based on what I think Doubront can do in a full season. No I shouldn't have added if healthy. I will stand behind the fact I think he goes a full season.

Are you interested in the signature bet?

[BSN07]

Are you interested in the signature bet?

 

Sure, let's say a week(keep it short so that we can use other sig bets with other posters as well) or 100 posts you have to keep the signature. Starts first day after the regular season. I will go back into the predictions thread and add that a sig bet has been placed with you on Doubront.

[jung]

Well I would be interested to know what sort of basis there will be for Felix to improve. He seems to be sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place. He had not as of the end of last season learned how to record outs in any significant quantity without recording K's. Setting up every batter for a SO really pumps up his pitch count and last year before you knew it he had been bounced out of the game from fatigue. He had 29 starts so his average was above 5 innings per start but below 6.

 

So I guess my question would be:

Do you think he will have between these two seasons learned how to get guys out on more ontact as opposed to relying so heavily on the SO?

 

Do you think he will have bulked up so much that he can withstand the high K percentage and stay in games longer? He certainly does not seem to be a version of Sandy Koufax or even a cousin of a version of Sandy Koufax from the perspective of stamina.

 

His high K percentage and inability to get enough contact outs seems to me to be his biggest hurdle from the perspective of a really major improvement. In addition I don't see him becoming so much stronger that he can withstand the effect from having to use so many pitches to record an out, yet if he has not learned by now how to get a sufficient number of contact outs, when is he going to learn that? I believe that to be a not insignificant challenge for a pitcher that has not figured that out yet.

 

What kind of an improvement are you thinking about in his case? Do you think he will pitch 200 innings at an ERA below 4:00 for example. I think that would be considered a surprise. It would certainly surprise me.

 

If however you believe he might make it to a rotation 3 well then I have always thought that was his upside boundary...certainly not an insignificant accomplishment but not elevating him to the stature of a rotation 1 or 2.

[BSN07]

Well I would be interested to know what sort of basis there will be for Felix to improve. He seems to be sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place. He had not as of the end of last season learned how to record outs in any significant quantity without recording K's. Setting up every batter for a SO really pumps up his pitch count and last year before you knew it he had been bounced out of the game from fatigue. He had 29 starts so his average was above 5 innings per start but below 6.

 

So I guess my question would be:

Do you think he will have between these two seasons learned how to get guys out on more ontact as opposed to relying so heavily on the SO?

 

Do you think he will have bulked up so much that he can withstand the high K percentage and stay in games longer? He certainly does not seem to be a version of Sandy Koufax or even a cousin of a version of Sandy Koufax from the perspective of stamina.

 

His high K percentage and inability to get enough contact outs seems to me to be his biggest hurdle from the perspective of a really major improvement. In addition I don't see him becoming so much stronger that he can withstand the effect from having to use so many pitches to record an out, yet if he has not learned by now how to get a sufficient number of contact outs, when is he going to learn that? I believe that to be a not insignificant challenge for a pitcher that has not figured that out yet.

 

What kind of an improvement are you thinking about in his case? Do you think he will pitch 200 innings at an ERA below 4:00 for example. I think that would be considered a surprise. It would certainly surprise me.

 

If however you believe he might make it to a rotation 3 well then I have always thought that was his upside boundary...certainly not an insignificant accomplishment but not elevating him to the stature of a rotation 1 or 2.

 

IF healthy( I am worried about his innings jump), these are my predictions(I will make sure to add them in the thread Pal and I were joking about)

 

17-10 190 IP 3.90 ERA 200+K 95BB 1.30 WHIP

 

 

And yes I know a lot of people aren't going to agree with this, but that's what makes it a bold prediction. I'm gonna make a thread lol

[Dojji]

Well I would be interested to know what sort of basis there will be for Felix to improve.

 

Lefty

Throws low to mid 90's

Solid offspeed stuff

Winning pitcher on a lousy team

160IP last year, should be poised to bump that up to 200 no problem.

9+k/9

 

Honestly he's a pretty trivial jump in command away from breaking out. HE was at 4bb/9, needs to get it down to the mid 3's and make a few less mistakes high in the zone is about it. Doubront impressed me last year. He's got everything he needs to make a big jump unless he struggles with his health.

[jung]

Should be interesting to watch but this sort of stuff does not just happen. It would seem to me that Felix either has to get more contact outs or has to be sufficiently strong to overcome the number of pitches it takes to set up and K so many guys as a percentage of total outs.

 

200 innings is not like rolling out of bed. I could believe 180 with an ERA still north of 4 somewhere....maybe something like 4.25-4.5 for an ERA.

 

Felix has been a starter his entire career as I recall. So it is not like he has been making a major conversion with that as a basis for issues that have curtailed his progress. I would be tickled pink if he threw for 180 at an ERA around 4.25

[BSN07]

Lefty

Throws low to mid 90's

Solid offspeed stuff

Winning pitcher on a lousy team

160IP last year, should be poised to bump that up to 200 no problem.

9+k/9

 

Honestly he's a pretty trivial jump in command away from breaking out. HE was at 4bb/9, needs to get it down to the mid 3's and make a few less mistakes high in the zone is about it. Doubront impressed me last year. He's got everything he needs to make a big jump unless he struggles with his health.

 

Damn it your giving it all away! :harhar:

[TutGadol]

Lefty

Throws low to mid 90's

Solid offspeed stuff

Winning pitcher on a lousy team

160IP last year, should be poised to bump that up to 200 no problem.

9+k/9

 

Honestly he's a pretty trivial jump in command away from breaking out. HE was at 4bb/9, needs to get it down to the mid 3's and make a few less mistakes high in the zone is about it. Doubront impressed me last year. He's got everything he needs to make a big jump unless he struggles with his health.

 

I really don't think the 160 to 200 jump is trivial. He really struggled with those 160 innings in terms of stamina. I think 150 over a 3.8-3.9 era is reasonable. If he goes much past 160 there will be consequences numbers-wise.

[Dojji]

Doesn't matter. If he plays up to his potential in the first 150 innings next year, the last 50 won't hurt his numbers that badly.

 

This kid has the potential and stuff to be our best pitcher next year even if Buchholz and Lester rebound. He's very talented, we haven't seen half of what this kid can do yet. He got over 9 k/9 for a full season facing big league hitters for the first time. That's A grade stuff. Lester didn't do that, and Buchholz didn't do that. I say Doubs has all the potential he needs to become a top of the rotation starter a few years from now, if he can harness it and remain healthy.

 

It comes down to him taking a step forward in his command. If he does that, he pitches more efficiently and everything else comes easier.

[rjortiz]

Doesn't matter. If he plays up to his potential in the first 150 innings next year, the last 50 won't hurt his numbers that badly.

 

This kid has the potential and stuff to be our best pitcher next year even if Buchholz and Lester rebound. He's very talented, we haven't seen half of what this kid can do yet. He got over 9 k/9 for a full season facing big league hitters for the first time. That's A grade stuff. Lester didn't do that, and Buchholz didn't do that. I say Doubs has all the potential he needs to become a top of the rotation starter a few years from now, if he can harness it and remain healthy.

 

It comes down to him taking a step forward in his command. If he does that, he pitches more efficiently and everything else comes easier.

 

Do you think he'll get his command issues settled?

[Dojji]

Depends on if you mean "this year" or "eventually."

 

This year I'd say maybe 40% chance. They're already closer to "settled" than either Lester or Buchholz were when they first came up.

 

In the long run I'm not THAT worried. I think he gets it down eventually, no problem.

[Palodios]

Edwin Jackson is looking for 4-5 years. Yikes, count me out.

[Palodios]

Cafardo mentions that the Red Sox could be in on both Garza and Soriano. Not sure if Soriano is worth a draft pick in the low 40s, but that bullpen would have friggen ridiculous potential if they signed him.

 

Garza... definitely worth checking in with Theo. Give him Iggy and Salty and see if he bites-- those were his guys.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Cubs gave up Archer, Lee, Fuld and Chirinos for Garza. They arent accepted s*** for him.

[rjortiz]

That proposal sucks, but he is a year from free agency and coming off an injury. His value isn't that high.

[Palodios]

The Cubs gave up Archer, Lee, Fuld and Chirinos for Garza. They arent accepted s*** for him.

 

He spent most of 2012 on the DL and he didn't exactly pitch like a complete ace when he did take the mound. He also will cost 12 million on the last year of his contract, and probably won't re-sign with the Cubs. Theo must have guys in this organization that he likes who aren't necessarily key prospects for this team.

[jacksonianmarch]

That proposal sucks, but he is a year from free agency and coming off an injury. His value isn't that high.

 

Right now, he's at least worth 1 yr of good production and a draft pick. Sounds like Theo is going to put on the full court press to re-sign him. You arent getting him for a no-hit SS and a no defense power only catcher. Especially since the Cubs have a SS they are committed to long term

[jacksonianmarch]

He spent most of 2012 on the DL and he didn't exactly pitch like a complete ace when he did take the mound. He also will cost 12 million on the last year of his contract, and probably won't re-sign with the Cubs. Theo must have guys in this organization that he likes who aren't necessarily key prospects for this team.

 

He spent 60% of the season being active, so using "most" is inaccurate. He had an 8+K/9IP with a sub 1.2WHIP and a 3+K/BB, so yes, he did pitch like an ace when he was out there. Getting Garza will cost you at least one big prospect, probably two. And, getting him gives you first crack to re-sign him, and I would assume that any deal would include a window to re-sign

[Palodios]

He spent 60% of the season being active, so using "most" is inaccurate. He had an 8+K/9IP with a sub 1.2WHIP and a 3+K/BB, so yes, he did pitch like an ace when he was out there. Getting Garza will cost you at least one big prospect, probably two. And, getting him gives you first crack to re-sign him, and I would assume that any deal would include a window to re-sign

 

I looked at innings, not games started, and his showed about half a season-- less if he actually was an ace. And just to point out, this was an all ominous elbow injury, not something minor.

 

Garza is probably equivalent in value to Dan Haren or Scott Baker. Teams historically value players they drafted higher than players other teams drafted. Theo knows most of the organization's prospects-- if he truly needs a B to move Garza, he's a lot worse a GM than I've given him credit for.

[dupree]

Instead of Garza i would rather trade for Rick Parcello. A trade with Theo would be hard to swing because he would want one or two of the B's and i wouldnt waste any B on Garza the only way Theo would get ahold of a B is a trade for Rizzo but the more and more i read about Rizzo he is the 1B in chicago for years to come

 

Parcello has been mentioned to be dangled by the tigers to be on the block so i think boston should atleast have a talk about acquiring him.

he would be a solid #3 starter in boston if not a #2 depending on how buch does this year i think a trade for parcello would still not make the rotation the elite staff in AL East but i do think they could do deep enough in games to not wear the bullpen out too early

 

Also speaking of the bullpen i think brian wilson need to get mentioned coming to boston. Not sure how close he is to being ready to help a team at the start of the season but would definitely be ready for an all star break addition for help going down the stretch

[rjortiz]

Instead of Garza i would rather trade for Rick Parcello. A trade with Theo would be hard to swing because he would want one or two of the B's and i wouldnt waste any B on Garza the only way Theo would get ahold of a B is a trade for Rizzo but the more and more i read about Rizzo he is the 1B in chicago for years to come

 

Parcello has been mentioned to be dangled by the tigers to be on the block so i think boston should atleast have a talk about acquiring him.

he would be a solid #3 starter in boston if not a #2 depending on how buch does this year i think a trade for parcello would still not make the rotation the elite staff in AL East but i do think they could do deep enough in games to not wear the bullpen out too early

 

Also speaking of the bullpen i think brian wilson need to get mentioned coming to boston. Not sure how close he is to being ready to help a team at the start of the season but would definitely be ready for an all star break addition for help going down the stretch

 

A solid number three? Have you seen his career numbers? You're essentially betting on a breakout. I'd like him as our #5 over Lackey.

[rjortiz]

He spent 60% of the season being active, so using "most" is inaccurate. He had an 8+K/9IP with a sub 1.2WHIP and a 3+K/BB, so yes, he did pitch like an ace when he was out there. Getting Garza will cost you at least one big prospect, probably two. And, getting him gives you first crack to re-sign him, and I would assume that any deal would include a window to re-sign

 

I think you could get him for one good prospect and an average one. Webster and Brentz would probably get a deal done for him.