Rotation

[BSN07]

Well, exactly.

 

Sanchez has had 3 straight years of 195 innings so he seems totally healthy.

 

I keep coming back to this but the Red Sox have about 70 million to spend this year without reaching the tax cap. They should be spending a pretty good chunk of that. And there aren't any bargain prices or sure things out there. No matter who they sign there will be question marks.

The Sox will not be going right back to the LT threshold this season IMO. I'm expecting a payroll of around 130M, 150M max.

I hate finishing last. I am not expecting a championship caliber team in 2013, but a couple of starters would make this a competitive respectable team. $60 million for Sanchez is a much better value than $82 million for a pig like Lackey. Sanchez will not break our bank. The payroll is very low right now, and so far no one has given him the 4/$60. If that is the top, it's not horrible and the length is not that bad, and maybe it will be lower.

 

He is demanding 6/90M and multiple executives expect him to receive it. 4/60M is most likely not going to get it done.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox will not be going right back to the LT threshold this season IMO. I'm expecting a payroll of around 130M, 150M max.

 

a) Why do you expect it would be as low as 130M?

 

Do you expect them to exceed the 189M cap in 2014 or any year after that?

[a700hitter]

The Sox will not be going right back to the LT threshold this season IMO. I'm expecting a payroll of around 130M, 150M max.

 

 

He is demanding 6/90M and multiple executives expect him to receive it. 4/60M is most likely not going to get it done.

Okay, 4/$60 is better than Lackey's or Beckett's contracts. Pitching continues to go at a premium. It's not like there is a bubble that will burst and the prices will come down at some point.

[BSN07]

a) Why do you expect it would be as low as 130M?

 

Do you expect them to exceed the 189M cap in 2014 or any year after that?

 

Maybe 130M is too low. And no I don't expect them to go past the threshold in the future. A well run franchise shouldn't have to really to field a competitive team.

[Palodios]

I hate finishing last. I am not expecting a championship caliber team in 2013, but a couple of starters would make this a competitive respectable team. $60 million for Sanchez is a much better value than $82 million for a pig like Lackey. Sanchez will not break our bank. The payroll is very low right now, and so far no one has given him the 4/$60. If that is the top, it's not horrible and the length is not that bad, and maybe it will be lower.

 

I don't think any of us would hesitate for a second to give Sanchez 4/60. But his stats are very similar to guys like Beckett/ Lackey/Burnett when they received 5/80 contracts, and with inflation I would not be surprised to see him get in that range-- especially since he is not going to cost a 1st round draft pick.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe 130M is too low. And no I don't expect them to go past the threshold in the future. A well run franchise shouldn't have to really to field a competitive team.

 

If the payroll goes down to 140 this year it means the owners are taking 35-40 million of the money saved on the Dodgers trade and putting it right into their pockets. If that happens and we have a lousy team this year it's not going to be a pretty sight. I think the payroll will be more than that.

[Palodios]

If the payroll goes down to 140 this year it means the owners are taking 35-40 million of the money saved on the Dodgers trade and putting it right into their pockets. If that happens and we have a lousy team this year it's not going to be a pretty sight. I think the payroll will be more than that.

 

It would definitely be a big PR hit, that's for sure. It is going to be closer to 150-160 I would think.

[example1]

I'm clearly in the minority here on Sanchez. I think 15m AAV is too high for the guy. That's almost what CJ Wilson got with the Angels. Can someone provide some numbers for me that say why he's in that category of pitcher this offseason? I don't think Wilson is a great pitcher but he was the best pitching FA last year, and I believe he had better numbers.

 

I would offer him like 13m at most, probably wouldn't land him, and would save the money for another acquisition.

[example1]

By WAR, lackey, Beckett and Burnett had all had numerous seasons that were better than Sanchezs best season when they signed their deals. Using Fangraphs, I just don't see the appeal of Sanchez. I've always liked him but he made 8m after winning his 3rd year arb case last year. He should be happy to get 11-13m guaranteed for multiple years. This has huge overpay written all over it. Even with their payroll flexibility they shouldn't spend bad money. The payroll will rise again and they will still need to maximize how that money is spent.

 

I don't care how much they feel they need pitching, it's not worth spending poorly.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I'm clearly in the minority here on Sanchez. I think 15m AAV is too high for the guy. That's almost what CJ Wilson got with the Angels. Can someone provide some numbers for me that say why he's in that category of pitcher this offseason? I don't think Wilson is a great pitcher but he was the best pitching FA last year, and I believe he had better numbers.

 

I would offer him like 13m at most, probably wouldn't land him, and would save the money for another acquisition.

 

If he'll take 4 years I think you have to bite at that. Wilson is a better pitcher but was also 2 years older and got a 5th year.

 

I think I'd offer Sanchez 4/52 but would probably go all the way up to 60.

[example1]

Why? What numbers of his justify that?

[Rdsxmbnt]

Why? What numbers of his justify that?

 

3 straight years of close to 200 IP, 3.70 ERA, solid peripherals, success in the AL last year, 29 years old.

[User Name]

I just don't understand how 15 million a year for Sanchez can be justified. Just because they have money doesn't mean they should throw it around like drunken sailors in a whorehouse.

[a700hitter]

By WAR, lackey, Beckett and Burnett had all had numerous seasons that were better than Sanchezs best season when they signed their deals. Using Fangraphs, I just don't see the appeal of Sanchez. I've always liked him but he made 8m after winning his 3rd year arb case last year. He should be happy to get 11-13m guaranteed for multiple years. This has huge overpay written all over it. Even with their payroll flexibility they shouldn't spend bad money. The payroll will rise again and they will still need to maximize how that money is spent.

 

I don't care how much they feel they need pitching, it's not worth spending poorly.

If they think the price for Sanchez is too high, they had better start exploring some trade options, because not adding to the current staff will land them in last place possibly topping their 93 losses from last year. I don't think ownership will want to live through another 2012 again.

[example1]

If they think the price for Sanchez is too high, they had better start exploring some trade options, because not adding to the current staff will land them in last place possibly topping their 93 losses from last year. I don't think ownership will want to live through another 2012 again.

 

I suspect they are one step ahead of you (at least with the idea of moving on if Sanchez is too expensive). The alternative would be to sit around doing nothing at all.

 

That said I really think people should be prepared to be patient. They might not make a big move with pitchers this offseason. I wouldn't hold it against them if they didn't drop absurd amounts on mediocre arms.

[Lord Snow]

Anibal Sanchez is the best free agent pitcher the Sox can pursue this off-season. Zack Greinke has anxiety issues and doesn't like to talk to the media which makes him a poor fit for Boston.

 

Sanchez hasn't posted an ERA north of 4 since 2008; however, he has never pitched 200 innings in a season, although he has come close in the past 3 seasons.

 

He is probably worth 4-years $60M. I'd take him at 5-years $75M. He has a long injury history but has made 30+ starts in each of the last 3 seasons and was a beast in October with the Tigers.

 

The Red Sox have the money to spend. Sanchez is the best option out there for the Sox. Paying him is a worthwhile gamble. Especially considering I've got little confidence in the starting rotation outside of Lester and Buchholz.

 

Lackey, at his age, coming off TJ, his physique... I wouldn't be surprised if he throws less than 30 innings this season.

 

Doubront showed some promise in 2012 but needs refinement. It's a mistake to expect him to be any better than a #4 or #5 in 2013. If he breaks out and posts a sub-4 ERA with 200 innings then that's great but the Sox definitely can't count on that.

 

Cherington has been very frugal when it comes to signing players (except he likes to overpay back-ups for some reason) so I wouldn't be surprised if he lays out an offer like 4-years $56M take it or leave it.

[a700hitter]

I suspect they are one step ahead of you (at least with the idea of moving on if Sanchez is too expensive). The alternative would be to sit around doing nothing at all.

 

That said I really think people should be prepared to be patient. They might not make a big move with pitchers this offseason. I wouldn't hold it against them if they didn't drop absurd amounts on mediocre arms.

It's hard to say "be patient' if they roll out a horror show like last year. The fans were patient last year and continued to fill the park for the most part. If they roll out the current staff and the season starts to resemble 2012, fans will just stop buying tickets and watching. There just was nothing interesting or fun about watching the team last year. You can say "be patient", but people are just not going to watch something that is not entertaining. We are all crazy fanatics on TalkSox and the game threads turned into an abandoned city.

[BSN07]

If the payroll goes down to 140 this year it means the owners are taking 35-40 million of the money saved on the Dodgers trade and putting it right into their pockets. If that happens and we have a lousy team this year it's not going to be a pretty sight. I think the payroll will be more than that.

 

There isn't talent available that would warrant them spending everything saved in the Dodgers trade this year. Just because it is there, doesn't mean they have to spend it right now. Besides being unhappy with a team that spends anywhere above a 140M+ on payroll is ridiculous. I don't care what the owners are pocketing. Teams are building contenders for much less.

 

You talk of the owners pocketing money like this is Miami <_>

[example1]

It's hard to say "be patient' if they roll out a horror show like last year. The fans were patient last year and continued to fill the park for the most part. If they roll out the current staff and the season starts to resemble 2012, fans will just stop buying tickets and watching. There just was nothing interesting or fun about watching the team last year. You can say "be patient", but people are just not going to watch something that is not entertaining. We are all crazy fanatics on TalkSox and the game threads turned into an abandoned city.

 

Oh I don't disagree. I guess my thinking is that sometimes teams should prioritize prudence over satisfying the fans at every turn.

 

Would you rather have a decent team from 2013-2016 or a bad team in 2013 and a great team from 2014-2017? I completely realize that's a bit of a false dichotomy, but it is indicative of the types of choices the FO needs to make. Spending 15m on Sanchez and 17 on Haren, say, would make them decent next year, but if a better choice comes along in the next year and a half they may have tied their hands for the sake of raising the team from 69 to 88 wins.

 

Please take those scenarios with the best intentions behind them. I state them under the heading of strike while the iron is hot, and the iron--in this case, the curren team, asking price for available FAs, and talent level of current FAs and trade options--might not be hot yet.

 

If they have something close to this payroll flexibility while also having some key spots filled by internal options like Bogaerts, Barnes and Bradley, they could really push the envelope and get premium players to set the team up for years.

 

My main point is that I assume a) the FO wants to win another WS and is doing everything in thei power to make that happen. It doesn't necessarily follow that bad contracts from a place of desperation is the way to go. That's what s***** teams do. Perhaps the FO can exercise patience and do it right, regardless of the success for 2013, with the assumption that the fans will be there in 2014 and beyond and will appreciate the highest quality product possible. If they build it, they will come... or something like that.

[Palodios]

There isn't talent available that would warrant them spending everything saved in the Dodgers trade this year. Just because it is there, doesn't mean they have to spend it right now. Besides being unhappy with a team that spends anywhere above a 140M+ on payroll is ridiculous. I don't care what the owners are pocketing. Teams are building contenders for much less.

 

You talk of the owners pocketing money like this is Miami <_>

 

Yes and no. I think they should spend big money this year, but only on short term deals. Spending 30 mill a year on Hamilton is silly, but throwing Marcum/Mccarthy 1/15 deals seems very reasonable to me.

[a700hitter]

Oh I don't disagree. I guess my thinking is that sometimes teams should prioritize prudence over satisfying the fans at every turn.

 

Would you rather have a decent team from 2013-2016 or a bad team in 2013 and a great team from 2014-2017? I completely realize that's a bit of a false dichotomy, but it is indicative of the types of choices the FO needs to make. Spending 15m on Sanchez and 17 on Haren, say, would make them decent next year, but if a better choice comes along in the next year and a half they may have tied their hands for the sake of raising the team from 69 to 88 wins.

 

Please take those scenarios with the best intentions behind them. I state them under the heading of strike while the iron is hot, and the iron--in this case, the curren team, asking price for available FAs, and talent level of current FAs and trade options--might not be hot yet.

 

If they have something close to this payroll flexibility while also having some key spots filled by internal options like Bogaerts, Barnes and Bradley, they could really push the envelope and get premium players to set the team up for years.

 

My main point is that I assume a) the FO wants to win another WS and is doing everything in thei power to make that happen. It doesn't necessarily follow that bad contracts from a place of desperation is the way to go. That's what s***** teams do. Perhaps the FO can exercise patience and do it right, regardless of the success for 2013, with the assumption that the fans will be there in 2014 and beyond and will appreciate the highest quality product possible. If they build it, they will come... or something like that.

Oh I get where you are coming from and I agree. It's crappy luck that we had our worst season in 46 years and the lowest payroll in more than a decade and the FA market stinks. Last year, there was a much better pool of players, but we had no flexibility. I don't think the FO will be patient, because I think they were really in disarray with all the negativity of coming in last place. We shall see. I doubt they will go so far as to bury themselves financially again.

[example1]

Oh I get where you are coming from and I agree. It's crappy luck that we had our worst season in 46 years and the lowest payroll in more than a decade and the FA market stinks. Last year, there was a much better pool of players, but we had no flexibility. I don't think the FO will be patient, because I think they were really in disarray with all the negativity of coming in last place. We shall see. I doubt they will go so far as to bury themselves financially again.

 

I think you are right. What I think that probably portends is the Sox waiting until toward the end of the offseason and being aggressive with the pitchers who are left over. That's not the exciting type of splash move that most people would want, but I'm afraid its about as good as it gets.

 

So players like Lohse, maybe Edwin Jackson, maybe Francisco Liriano, maybe even Dan Haren could all fall into the category of players who are willing to take a good salary for a one year shot. I suspect the Sox will essentially punt on the SP until they can get a guy who is a rotation mainstay and go for him. Perhaps Greinke is that guy (haven't heard much about him)... his numbers would certainly warrant a good look. I just think many of us are in agreement when we feel like there isn't an obvious candidate worth spending a ton of money on for multiple years.

 

I like Anibel Sanchez as a pitcher, but would like him a lot more if this team had a bonafide ace (even an expensive one) and 2-3 other pitchers who were nicely slotted 2-5 somehow. If Sanchez could be acquired as a pseudo-#2 or #3 for a team on the verge of being great, 15m and his years would make sense. The Sox simply aren't there yet, so it isn't worth doing, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh I don't disagree. I guess my thinking is that sometimes teams should prioritize prudence over satisfying the fans at every turn.

 

Would you rather have a decent team from 2013-2016 or a bad team in 2013 and a great team from 2014-2017? I completely realize that's a bit of a false dichotomy, but it is indicative of the types of choices the FO needs to make. Spending 15m on Sanchez and 17 on Haren, say, would make them decent next year, but if a better choice comes along in the next year and a half they may have tied their hands for the sake of raising the team from 69 to 88 wins.

 

Please take those scenarios with the best intentions behind them. I state them under the heading of strike while the iron is hot, and the iron--in this case, the curren team, asking price for available FAs, and talent level of current FAs and trade options--might not be hot yet.

 

If they have something close to this payroll flexibility while also having some key spots filled by internal options like Bogaerts, Barnes and Bradley, they could really push the envelope and get premium players to set the team up for years.

 

My main point is that I assume a) the FO wants to win another WS and is doing everything in thei power to make that happen. It doesn't necessarily follow that bad contracts from a place of desperation is the way to go. That's what s***** teams do. Perhaps the FO can exercise patience and do it right, regardless of the success for 2013, with the assumption that the fans will be there in 2014 and beyond and will appreciate the highest quality product possible. If they build it, they will come... or something like that.

 

e1, I think you did a good job encapsulating the payroll issues here.

[jung]

My main point is that I assume a) the FO wants to win another WS and is doing everything in thei power to make that happen.

 

I would assume that any pro baseball organization is going to do everything in its power to maximize its revenue and its bottom line and if a WS run can be accomplished within that spectrum, then they will take it.

 

I am no longer even sure that a pro baseball team will do everything in its power to win a WS since the team is made up of players all with disparate goals and aspirations. The money has just gotten to crazy to even assume that all players are in this to get to and win a WS. Although I more confident in the team in that regard than I am the organization.

[RedSoxNC84]

If the sox start signing guys like Marcum and McCarthy to 1 yr high AAV contracts, that's still a much smarter move than the approach to pitching depth last year. Of course they do have the flexibility to do this now, and not necessarily last season.

 

I'd also go as far as saying it's a smarter move than signing Anibal Sanchez to a ridiculous contract. He may be one of the best free agent pitchers available, but the years are long and the money is high. I'd rather see them take some shots on some real comeback options, not some deadbeats like last season. 2014 has a better free agent class, and even if they aren't as competitive this year if they don't get someone like Sanchez, they maintain the payroll flexibility to really grab some talent next year. As a lot of you are saying, they shouldn't mortgage the future, again.

 

At least we aren't seeing them throw away players who were useful to get 6 million in salary relief. Or signing Carlos Silva.

[SoxSport]

I would forget about signing a FA pitcher. The quality isn't there for the asking prices.

 

They are better off improving their pitching from within. That means their coaches better get off their asses and coach this year. Including Farrell. Last year was a coaching disaster. The pitching is loaded with underachievers, who have to get back to their norms this year. If that happens, and Bailey can avoid getting his pitching hand stuck in the toilet door, and Bard comes back to his rightful BP role, they'll be OK. Save the #5 starter slot for Morales or DeLaRosa or that other prospect pitcher they got in the Dodger deal.

 

And sign that superstar Hamilton to restore some luster to the team and re-energize the fan base.

[BSN07]

Zack Greinke's camp predicts the talented veteran will not only become the richest right-hander in history, but may also surpass Cole Hamels' $153MM contract, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com.

 

I think that prices Grienke out of Boston. Not that he was ever a real likelihood. But if he get's that much I can easily see some team offering Sanchez 80-90M, which prices his out of Boston as well. I don't like Lohse in the AL East. I feel it is far more likely they will be going with the 1-2 year guys like Haren, McCarthy, Hernandez, Blanton, so on and so forth. Next ear free agent crop has some interesting names but not #1. If this team get's a #1 is will either be traded for or Lester/Buchholz steps up.

 

I've seen Garza's name pop up recently on here. I'm not sure he's a true #1 and that's what it will certainly cost to get him and he's a free agent next season. I'd rather keep the prospects.

[Palodios]

I've seen Garza's name pop up recently on here. I'm not sure he's a true #1 and that's what it will certainly cost to get him and he's a free agent next season. I'd rather keep the prospects.

 

Garza is an injury risk #2 at best. He's not worth second tier prospects. The only way I can see a deal happening is if Theo really likes some of his old third tier draftees like a Wlson/Hassan/Ranaudo/Linares, but I wouldn't count that out.

[a700hitter]

I would forget about signing a FA pitcher. The quality isn't there for the asking prices.

 

They are better off improving their pitching from within. That means their coaches better get off their asses and coach this year. Including Farrell. Last year was a coaching disaster. The pitching is loaded with underachievers, who have to get back to their norms this year. If that happens, and Bailey can avoid getting his pitching hand stuck in the toilet door, and Bard comes back to his rightful BP role, they'll be OK. Save the #5 starter slot for Morales or DeLaRosa or that other prospect pitcher they got in the Dodger deal.

 

And sign that superstar Hamilton to restore some luster to the team and re-energize the fan base.

 

If they don't add a pitcher or 2 either through FA or trade, essentially, they will be fielding the same staff that has been failing miserably since September 2011 except that Lackey will be taking Beckett's spot and Bailey will be taking Papelbon's spot. Also, I think it is overly optimistic to think that Bard can return to what he was prior to 2012. He has all the signs of a shot pitcher. His command is completely gone and his velocity is way down.

 

IMO if we don't add pitching, we will lose 90+ games in 2013. I could see them. Having an even worse year. Our number 1 problem is our starting pitching. I realize that the FA crop is thin, but many posters believed that we should abstain from the 2012 FA market, because they expected this year's FA pool to have a bumper crop of top line pitchers including Cain and Hamels. They and other top pitchers extended with their current teams. Hoping that better pitching will be available next year or the year after carries no guarantee. The market is thin, but it is better than anything we have not named Lester and Buchholz, and Lester is a big question mark.

[a700hitter]

Garza is an injury risk #2 at best. He's not worth second tier prospects. The only way I can see a deal happening is if Theo really likes some of his old third tier draftees like a Wlson/Hassan/Ranaudo/Linares, but I wouldn't count that out.

Garza is too high of an injury risk. He is a TJ surgery case in waiting. I'd take him only if Theo is treying to dump him and the price is very low.