Red Sox Offseason Ideas

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wait, so a guy in low A is good enough for a guy who plays 1B, RF, and a little 3B with 30+HR power and a .800+ OPS? What f***in planet are you on?

 

I said Ells + Cecchini first off.

 

Second off, Trumbo has a career .780 OPS. He has had 1 season with an OPS over .800 (this year) and it was .808, not like it was .970.

 

He's essentially in the class of guys like Justin Morneau, Freddie Freeman, Mark Teixeira, etc.

 

Not vintage Tex. Old Tex.

 

Getting a .305/.394/.433 guy who stole 50 bags and was a top 100 prospect per both FG and Keith Law along with Jacoby Ellsbury would be a solid deal in return for Trumbo, who, by the way, is hitting pretty consistent with his career numbers in the minors (.804 OPS), and never made a top 100 listing.

 

The league average OPS for 1st basemen last year was .777. It was .791 in the AL in 2011, .801 in the NL in 2011. In 2010, the league average 1B hit to a .812 OPS (NL), putting Trumbo's current season below league average.

 

So, overall, you're getting a slightly above league average 1B who has a swing that is perfect for Fenway. His numbers would be monstrous at Fenway, no doubt. But in terms of his value as is, playing in LA? It's not nearly as high as you try make it sound.

 

Ellsbury + Cecchini would be a good deal for him.

[mvp 78]

I'd just put Ross at 1b.

[Behindenemylines]

Angels aren't tradingTrumbo, and they are one of the few teams who wouldn't jump on the chance to get Ellsbury. They have Trout in center. Trumbo's versatility is a bonus for the Angels. Albert is getting older he can play some 1B. He can play 3B, some OF and DH. An the power! I'd love it to happen, but its not. I'm still puzzled that the Angels didn't make the playoffs. I think their FO is to, but I don't see them doing anything major. If Trout isn't there Trumbo is their young star.

[Station 13]

I'm open to signing Swisher as long as he's willing to take 3-4 year at 12M a year. He's not getting $100m. He will get about half of that. High OBP with 20HR+ potential, the team has become a free hacking squad the last year+. Even Gonzalez wasn't taking his walks and swing at first pitches too often.

[Bellhorn04]

Swisher - it's such a rarity for us to sign somebody with credentials away from the Yankees that I don't even consider it as a realistic possibility.

[SoxSport]

I wish somebody would jump at the chance to get Ellsbury, but I'm afraid they won't get much value for him off-season, since he did nothing this year. I think they're stuck with him until at least mid season next year--if he shows something. I don't think they'll re-sign him. Boras is a factor.

[SoxSport]

I'm open to signing Swisher as long as he's willing to take 3-4 year at 12M a year. He's not getting $100m. He will get about half of that. High OBP with 20HR+ potential, the team has become a free hacking squad the last year+. Even Gonzalez wasn't taking his walks and swing at first pitches too often.

 

Swisher wants big bucks, and I doubt he'll get it. They can get somebody for far less. Maybe Ike Davis from the Mets. I'd like to see them give Gomez a good shot. He can hit, and showed he could play some 1B in September.

[Behindenemylines]

Best case for the Sox if next year is a bridge year is that both Ellsbury and J Bradley get off to hot starts. The Sox trade Ellsbury before trading deadline for other needs and promote Bradley.If Bradley not ready by middle of next season he should be good to go by the spring of 2014.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Best case for the Sox if next year is a bridge year is that both Ellsbury and J Bradley get off to hot starts. The Sox trade Ellsbury before trading deadline for other needs and promote Bradley.If Bradley not ready by middle of next season he should be good to go by the spring of 2014.

 

You'll get a hell of a lot more for Ellsbury by trading him before the season, when a team can get a draft pick for him if he leaves for FA.

[Behindenemylines]

Ellsbury's production when he came back from the injury was not that great. He needs to prove that he is 100% healthy, and to do that he needs to have a strong start to 2013. Regardless of were / if he is traded you no Boras is taking him to the open market. He will not sign before that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ellsbury's production when he came back from the injury was not that great. He needs to prove that he is 100% healthy, and to do that he needs to have a strong start to 2013. Regardless of were / if he is traded you no Boras is taking him to the open market. He will not sign before that.

 

Right, so you can get more for him now for a full year of production and, when he leaves, a draft pick to replace what you're giving up. If you trade him at the deadline, you're going to get nothing because he's not going to sign an extension and the acquiring team isn't going to get any compensation for him.

[redsoxfan3]

Right, so you can get more for him now for a full year of production and, when he leaves, a draft pick to replace what you're giving up. If you trade him at the deadline, you're going to get nothing because he's not going to sign an extension and the acquiring team isn't going to get any compensation for him.

 

I like Ellsbury, but I am definitely down for trading him this offseason. I agree with what you are saying. The value now might be at its highest for trading him. If we can package a deal around him for a true ace, then that is an obviously a no brainer.

[Plumpamania]

If we are going to deal Ellsbury it HAS to be THIS offseason. Otherwise his value plummets even more.

 

Ike Davis won't be available at all.

 

Giving Mauro Gomez a shot, are you kidding me? He's going on 30 and has posted bench lines at best since 2005.

 

Year	Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	RAN	AZL	.385	4	13	5	5	2	0	1	4	10	3	2	0	0	.471	.769	1.240
2005	Minors	 	.385	4	13	5	5	2	0	1	4	10	3	2	0	0	.471	.769	1.240
2006	RAN	AZL	.409	11	44	9	18	3	0	3	14	30	5	5	1	1	.480	.682	1.162
2006	BAK	CAL	.258	59	213	25	55	14	2	4	25	85	6	71	1	0	.279	.399	.678
2006	Minors	 	.284	70	257	34	73	17	2	7	39	115	11	76	2	1	.316	.447	.764
2007	CLI	MID	.262	132	497	72	130	28	0	21	74	221	23	115	2	3	.316	.445	.761
2007	Minors	 	.262	132	497	72	130	28	0	21	74	221	23	115	2	3	.316	.445	.761
2008	BAK	CAL	.244	80	316	30	77	13	0	8	41	114	14	93	0	0	.281	.361	.641
2008	Minors	 	.244	80	316	30	77	13	0	8	41	114	14	93	0	0	.281	.361	.641
2009	BAK	CAL	.285	124	501	75	143	35	3	28	94	268	31	141	1	0	.333	.535	.868
2009	Minors	 	.285	124	501	75	143	35	3	28	94	268	31	141	1	0	.333	.535	.868
2010	MIS	SOU	.281	133	495	67	139	42	2	16	80	233	46	122	1	2	.349	.471	.820
2010	Minors	 	.281	133	495	67	139	42	2	16	80	233	46	122	1	2	.349	.471	.820
2011	GWN	INT	.304	135	506	76	154	34	2	24	90	264	38	131	6	2	.356	.522	.878
2011	Minors	 	.304	135	506	76	154	34	2	24	90	264	38	131	6	2	.356	.522	.878
2012	PAW	INT	.310	100	387	65	120	34	1	24	74	228	35	88	1	0	.371	.589	.960
2012	Minors	 	.310	100	387	65	120	34	1	24	74	228	35	88	1	0	.371	.589	.960
2012	Majors	 	.275	37	102	14	28	5	2	2	17	43	8	26	0	0	.324	.422	.746

[Plumpamania]

If we are going to deal Ellsbury it HAS to be THIS offseason. Otherwise his value plummets even more.

 

Ike Davis won't be available at all.

 

Giving Mauro Gomez a shot, are you kidding me? He's going on 30 and has posted bench lines at best since 2005.

 

Year	Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	RAN	AZL	.385	4	13	5	5	2	0	1	4	10	3	2	0	0	.471	.769	1.240
2005	Minors	 	.385	4	13	5	5	2	0	1	4	10	3	2	0	0	.471	.769	1.240
2006	RAN	AZL	.409	11	44	9	18	3	0	3	14	30	5	5	1	1	.480	.682	1.162
2006	BAK	CAL	.258	59	213	25	55	14	2	4	25	85	6	71	1	0	.279	.399	.678
2006	Minors	 	.284	70	257	34	73	17	2	7	39	115	11	76	2	1	.316	.447	.764
2007	CLI	MID	.262	132	497	72	130	28	0	21	74	221	23	115	2	3	.316	.445	.761
2007	Minors	 	.262	132	497	72	130	28	0	21	74	221	23	115	2	3	.316	.445	.761
2008	BAK	CAL	.244	80	316	30	77	13	0	8	41	114	14	93	0	0	.281	.361	.641
2008	Minors	 	.244	80	316	30	77	13	0	8	41	114	14	93	0	0	.281	.361	.641
2009	BAK	CAL	.285	124	501	75	143	35	3	28	94	268	31	141	1	0	.333	.535	.868
2009	Minors	 	.285	124	501	75	143	35	3	28	94	268	31	141	1	0	.333	.535	.868
2010	MIS	SOU	.281	133	495	67	139	42	2	16	80	233	46	122	1	2	.349	.471	.820
2010	Minors	 	.281	133	495	67	139	42	2	16	80	233	46	122	1	2	.349	.471	.820
2011	GWN	INT	.304	135	506	76	154	34	2	24	90	264	38	131	6	2	.356	.522	.878
2011	Minors	 	.304	135	506	76	154	34	2	24	90	264	38	131	6	2	.356	.522	.878
2012	PAW	INT	.310	100	387	65	120	34	1	24	74	228	35	88	1	0	.371	.589	.960
2012	Minors	 	.310	100	387	65	120	34	1	24	74	228	35	88	1	0	.371	.589	.960
2012	Majors	 	.275	37	102	14	28	5	2	2	17	43	8	26	0	0	.324	.422	.746

[Palodios]

If we are going to deal Ellsbury it HAS to be THIS offseason. Otherwise his value plummets even more.

 

I'm starting to feel less and less as if that is the case. If the Red Sox aren't clever enough to offer him a 2 year deal, what are the possible outcomes?

 

1) They trade him this offseason, and sell low because of his poor 2012, and because they know the chance to resign him are low.

2) He has a great 2013, and they sell high on him at the trade deadline, or keep him for a title run.

3) He has a decent or bad 2013 and they keep him at the trade deadline and will be able to afford to extend him.

 

Selling low on him seems likes the worst option available. If the Red Sox can get two top prospects for him, absolutely pull the trigger. However OF is the one position that where there is a surplus in the free agent market this year, so I doubt any team is going to be willing to overpay for a guy who had a .680 OPS last year.

[rjortiz]

Ellsbury was a 9 WAR player in 2011. He's going to fetch something nice.

[Behindenemylines]

Boras guys using go where the $$$ are the greatest. That is not going to be with the Sox, unless he really wants to play here and takes less to stay. If that is the case then the two options are trade now or trade before the trading deadline in 2013. There are only a hand full of CF with the talent of Ellsbury so there will be a demand for him. The Sox need to get the best possible value for him that will speed up the rebuilding process.

[SoxSport]

I think they're trying to deal Ells right now--for a pitcher. There are rumors about Holland from Texas, but that may be just speculation. They have enough depth in the OF to deal him. That assumes they re-sign Ross.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think they're trying to deal Ells right now--for a pitcher. There are rumors about Holland from Texas, but that may be just speculation. They have enough depth in the OF to deal him. That assumes they re-sign Ross.

 

I hope it's not Derek Holland. I'd much rather have Ellsbury than Holland.

[Palodios]

How do people feel about Anibal Sanchez?

 

After seeing him shutout the Yankees for seven innings, I'd certainly be happy to see him do that for the Red Sox next year. Obviously, the Red Sox need a true ace on top of him, but I wouldn't mind seeing him here.

[SoxFanForsyth]

How do people feel about Anibal Sanchez?

 

After seeing him shutout the Yankees for seven innings, I'd certainly be happy to see him do that for the Red Sox next year. Obviously, the Red Sox need a true ace on top of him, but I wouldn't mind seeing him here.

 

After giving up the prospects for Infante and Sanchez, I'd be shocked if the Tigers didn't pay him. That's too much to give up for a rental. Having said that, I am not interested. There are better options out there IMO. When they Yankees aren't playing like the September Red Sox, they would have destroyed him. I don't think he'd be a good fit in the AL East.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am curious, though. What is everyone's optimal lineup going into next season? Realistically speaking, rotation, bullpen, and lineup? What moves do you think the Sox make to acquire the players too? I know this is kind of repeating what this thread already is, but I'd like to see some projected lineups.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, I'll kick it off.

 

Move 1: Sign Dan Haren to a 1 year, $14.5mm deal.

Move 2: Trade Felix Doubront, Daniel Bard, and Garin Cecchini to the Giants for Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has had an awful season, and has 1 year left on his deal for ~ $20mm. The Giants will certainly listen on him, especially if they're getting a couple cost controlled guys like Doubront and Cecchini in return, plus a guy (like Lincecum) who is coming off a down year but has elite talent.

Move 3: Trade Drake Britton and Frank Montas to the Mariners for Justin Smoak. He is a prime change of scenery guy, and can be had for pretty cheap. The Mariners are clearly not sold on him because they were shopping for young first baseman earlier (asking for Brandon Belt in return for League). I think Smoak still has a ton of talent, and he could be a prime buy low candidate. Not to mention, he's under club control for a while.

Move 4: Mix in the youngsters. Bryce Brentz and Jackie Bradley Jr. both start the season in Boston.

Move 5: Sign Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League. Really tidy up the back end of this bullpen.

Move 6: Trade Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, and Jose Iglesias for Troy Tulowitzki.

 

Rotation:

Tim Lincecum

Dan Haren

Clay Buchholz

Jon Lester

John Lackey

 

Bullpen:

Tazawa

De La Rosa

Breslow

Miller

League

Broxton

Bailey

 

Lineup:

Ellsbury (CF)

Bradley Jr (RF)

Pedroia (2B)

Tulowitzki (SS)

Ortiz (DH)

Middlebrooks (3B)

Brentz (LF)

Smoak (1B)

Lavarnway ©

 

The Sox would be getting rid of prospects: Garin Cecchini, Drake Britton, Frank Montas, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, and Chris Hernadez. However, the Sox would be acquiring a magnitude of talent, and would be retaining most of their elite talent (De La Rosa, Barnes, Webster, Bradley, Brentz, Owens).

 

I know it would really, really, really suck to have to get rid of Bogaerts, but let's think about this for a second. In a dream land, what would be our wish for Bogaerts? A 30+ HR, .300 hitter with Gold Glove defense? Well, if you can get that guaranteed, you make the deal. Again, this is a deal that I'm not 100% on, but if we traded Bogaerts and it netted us Tulo, I'd be ok with it.

[rjortiz]

Wow, that team would be bad.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Wow, that team would be bad.

 

how?

[rjortiz]

how?

 

The bottom three of your lineup is a black hole. Bradley and Brentz are both jumping directly from AA to the bigs. The rotation is putrid. Lincecum can't even get a spot over Zito, yet he's your number two.

 

Plus, you'd never get Tulowitzki for that horrible package.

[DocHolliday]

So, I'll kick it off.

 

Move 1: Sign Dan Haren to a 1 year, $14.5mm deal.

Move 2: Trade Felix Doubront, Daniel Bard, and Garin Cecchini to the Giants for Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has had an awful season, and has 1 year left on his deal for ~ $20mm. The Giants will certainly listen on him, especially if they're getting a couple cost controlled guys like Doubront and Cecchini in return, plus a guy (like Lincecum) who is coming off a down year but has elite talent.

Move 3: Trade Drake Britton and Frank Montas to the Mariners for Justin Smoak. He is a prime change of scenery guy, and can be had for pretty cheap. The Mariners are clearly not sold on him because they were shopping for young first baseman earlier (asking for Brandon Belt in return for League). I think Smoak still has a ton of talent, and he could be a prime buy low candidate. Not to mention, he's under club control for a while.

Move 4: Mix in the youngsters. Bryce Brentz and Jackie Bradley Jr. both start the season in Boston.

Move 5: Sign Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League. Really tidy up the back end of this bullpen.

Move 6: Trade Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, and Jose Iglesias for Troy Tulowitzki.

 

Rotation:

Tim Lincecum

Dan Haren

Clay Buchholz

Jon Lester

John Lackey

 

Bullpen:

Tazawa

De La Rosa

Breslow

Miller

League

Broxton

Bailey

 

Lineup:

Ellsbury (CF)

Bradley Jr (RF)

Pedroia (2B)

Tulowitzki (SS)

Ortiz (DH)

Middlebrooks (3B)

Brentz (LF)

Smoak (1B)

Lavarnway ©

 

The Sox would be getting rid of prospects: Garin Cecchini, Drake Britton, Frank Montas, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, and Chris Hernadez. However, the Sox would be acquiring a magnitude of talent, and would be retaining most of their elite talent (De La Rosa, Barnes, Webster, Bradley, Brentz, Owens).

 

I know it would really, really, really suck to have to get rid of Bogaerts, but let's think about this for a second. In a dream land, what would be our wish for Bogaerts? A 30+ HR, .300 hitter with Gold Glove defense? Well, if you can get that guaranteed, you make the deal. Again, this is a deal that I'm not 100% on, but if we traded Bogaerts and it netted us Tulo, I'd be ok with it.

 

Only problem I have with this is dealing Boegarts for Tulo. Tulo is signed through 2021, or his age 36 season, at an AAV of around $20 M. That's just too much $ and years to take on, particularly for a player who has been spent significant time on the DL for 2 of the last 5 seasons. He certainly has a good mental makeup, but he seems like too big of a risk to take on unless Colorado was willing to take on a large percentage of his salary.

 

I'd much rather keep the SS prospects out of a trade for a SS and try to use them, or other tradeable pieces to fill an organizational wide vacancy at 1B and anywhere on the pitching staff.

 

Before the server backup that deleted some of my posts from yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of an Ellsbury for Mike Olt trade with the Rangers. In short, the Rangers have too many players with guaranteed contracts who are going to be back next season - without enough positions on the field for all of them and the prospects. The way their core and payroll is shaping up, they are looking to win now and most likely feel their window to win hasn't closed. Ellsbury would fill the some of the void for them in CF better than just about any other OF they can acquire through a trade or FA. They won't give up Profar in any deal. Mike Olt is their next best positional prospect, but he may be closer to contributing on the ML level than Profar since he had several years of development at UConn.

 

This deal makes sense for both sides and insures the Red Sox would get more for losing Ellsbury than they would under the new CBA if Ellsbury leaves after this season. Of course, this move would largely depend on Ellsbury and the Rangers agreeing to an extension beyond next season - similar to the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The bottom three of your lineup is a black hole. Bradley and Brentz are both jumping directly from AA to the bigs. The rotation is putrid. Lincecum can't even get a spot over Zito, yet he's your number two.

 

Plus, you'd never get Tulowitzki for that horrible package.

 

Brentz Smoak Lavarnway is a black hole? Brentz is on almost the exact same path as Middlebrooks was. He played about a month of AAA at the end of the season. Try to pay attention. He's very close to being the same player as WMB.

 

Smoak is a switch hitter who was a top 15 prospect not long ago, and has been playing in Seattle over the past 2 years which have completely suppressed his stats.

 

Lavarnway has a career .295/.382/.511 AAA line, and is a consistently high OBP guy who can hit for 20+ HR. Not sure how that's a black hole.

 

Bradley Jr. had a .430 OBP this year. He can certainly be a .270/.360/.400 guy next year at the MLB level.

 

Have you been paying attention to the Red Sox farm at all? Doesn't seem like it.

 

Lincecum is a much better pitcher than he showed this year. Players have track records. This was an aberration season for Lincecum. Have a look at his career stats man. Not to mention he's been dominant in the post season.

 

And Tulo? You think the Rockies, who are completely in rebuild mode, wouldn't want to dumb 8 years/$140mm?? And get an elite prospect in return along with a catcher who, oh by the way, has been compared to Buster Posey?

 

I mean at least try to have a little bit to back up your opinion

[jacksonianmarch]

Put the crack pipe down

[rjortiz]

Brentz Smoak Lavarnway is a black hole? Brentz is on almost the exact same path as Middlebrooks was. He played about a month of AAA at the end of the season. Try to pay attention. He's very close to being the same player as WMB.

 

Middlebrooks hit MLB pitching for about the same OPS that Brentz did in AA during their age 23 seasons. I don't feel comfortable allowing a prospect who struck out 25.7% of the time, and had a BABIP of .377 to be in our starting lineup. We'd be lucky if he put up average numbers.

 

Smoak is a switch hitter who was a top 15 prospect not long ago, and has been playing in Seattle over the past 2 years which have completely suppressed his stats.

 

It's not just Safeco. He has a .715 OPS in the road, and while he had a good September, I'm not banking on a return to prospect status for him. He's years away from that, and has been pretty terrible for someone with over 1200 career AB's.

 

Lavarnway has a career .295/.382/.511 AAA line, and is a consistently high OBP guy who can hit for 20+ HR. Not sure how that's a black hole.

 

Didn't watch him this year down the stretch I guess.

 

Bradley Jr. had a .430 OBP this year. He can certainly be a .270/.360/.400 guy next year at the MLB level.

 

Most of that was when he tore up A ball. He managed a .800 OPS at Portland, and you expect him to come right in and replicate those numbers in the major leagues? I think that's far too optimistic.

 

Have you been paying attention to the Red Sox farm at all? Doesn't seem like it.

 

Clown question.

 

Lincecum is a much better pitcher than he showed this year. Players have track records. This was an aberration season for Lincecum. Have a look at his career stats man. Not to mention he's been dominant in the post season.

 

He's been a good pitcher, but I'm not willing to bet 5 years of Doubront, Cecchini, and $20 million for someone coming off an awful year, and his postseason pitching stats have only been eight innings, in relief, and all coming out of the stretch. If you want him as a reliever that would be a different story.

 

And Tulo? You think the Rockies, who are completely in rebuild mode, wouldn't want to dumb 8 years/$140mm?? And get an elite prospect in return along with a catcher who, oh by the way, has been compared to Buster Posey?

 

Tulo is the best all around SS in the game. I don't think the Rockies will be so eager to part with him, and Swihart may have been mentioned in the same sentence as Posey, but no one in their right mind thinks he is anything close to the prospect Posey was. Posey was the 4th overall pick, and ranked #15 and #7 in prospect rankings.