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Posted

Lee's contract isn't horrible, and he's a great pitcher. It's going to take a lot more than those three to get that deal done. The Phillies are expecting to win next year, so I doubt they want prospects.

 

Victorino isn't going to sign a one year deal.

 

St. Louis won't give up six years of Miller for one year of Ellsbury.

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Posted
Lee's contract isn't horrible, and he's a great pitcher. It's going to take a lot more than those three to get that deal done. The Phillies are expecting to win next year, so I doubt they want prospects.

 

Victorino isn't going to sign a one year deal.

 

St. Louis won't give up six years of Miller for one year of Ellsbury.

 

All of the possibilities this offseason will make this one of the more intriguing off seasons in terms of discussing ways to improve the team.

 

Hopefully this organization will limit the mistakes they make this offseason better than in recent off seasons.

Posted

Ellsbury - CF ($12,000,000)

Pedroia - 2B ($10,000,000)

Ortiz - DH ($15,000,000)

Hamilton - RF ($20,000,000)

Morse - 1B ($5,500,000) OR Napoli ($12,000,000)

Middlebrooks - 3B ($400,000)

Gomes/Nava - LF ($3,000,000)

Lavarnway - C ($400,000)

Iglesis - SS ($2,000,000)

 

Saltalamacchia - C ($2,000,000)

Ciraco - INF ($400,000)

Kalish - OF ($400,000)

Gomez - 1B/COF ($400,000)

 

Johnson - SP ($14,000,000)

Jackson - SP ($14,000,000)

Buchholz - SP ($8,000,000)

Lester - SP ($11,000,000)

Doubront - SP ($400,000)

Lackey - SP ($16,000,000)

 

Bailey - CL ($6,000,000)

Tazawa - MR

Breslow - MR

De La Rosa - MR

Carpenter - MR

Bard - MR

Mortenson - MR

Posted
Lee's contract isn't horrible, and he's a great pitcher. It's going to take a lot more than those three to get that deal done. The Phillies are expecting to win next year, so I doubt they want prospects.

 

Victorino isn't going to sign a one year deal.

 

St. Louis won't give up six years of Miller for one year of Ellsbury.

 

while appreciate your well thought out response, I disagree. Paying a pitcher 27.5 million for his age 37/38 age season is borderline retarded, but i see value in mentoring young pitchers. The phillies have several positions they need to address this offseason (3b,rh of bat, bullpen) and this would allow them to pursue upgrades. There farm system is lacking in position players so im assuming they would be looking for prospects. I actually think its probaly an overpay.

 

Prior to this year Victorino was looking at a 5/75 contract after he ops .847, this year has been a disaster for him as his ops has dropped to .687, he would be the perfect buy low candidate.

 

Miller has been eratic this year at best with a era just under 5.00 and St Louis has a plethora of starting pitching at the mlb and minor levels(I actually prefer Carlos Martinez) , my point on this acquisition was to get a firstbaseman that is close to being ready and a young pitcher that has front of the rotation upside. I don't know if St Louis would be interested in that trade, but thats the type of trade i would look for, if not hold on to him and get the draft pick.

Posted
while appreciate your well thought out response, I disagree. Paying a pitcher 27.5 million for his age 37/38 age season is borderline retarded, but i see value in mentoring young pitchers. The phillies have several positions they need to address this offseason (3b,rh of bat, bullpen) and this would allow them to pursue upgrades. There farm system is lacking in position players so im assuming they would be looking for prospects. I actually think its probaly an overpay.

 

He's still was a 4 win pitcher, despite the slow start. His contract allows for a buyout for those years that you covered. Pitchers like Lee tend to age well, and he's under control for three years. I think they'd want a Barnes or Bradley in the deal to make a swap. That's if they would consider trading prospects. Philadelphia isn't a small market, and they will be looking to reload next year. I wouldn't surprise me at all to see Victorino back with them next year.

 

Prior to this year Victorino was looking at a 5/75 contract after he ops .847, this year has been a disaster for him as his ops has dropped to .687, he would be the perfect buy low candidate.

 

He's still been a 3 win player, despite his rough year. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him still get 5/75. He's going to have a lot of suitors, too. I think that will be the deciding factor in getting him a multi-year contract. I do like the idea, though.

 

Miller has been eratic this year at best with a era just under 5.00 and St Louis has a plethora of starting pitching at the mlb and minor levels(I actually prefer Carlos Martinez) , my point on this acquisition was to get a firstbaseman that is close to being ready and a young pitcher that has front of the rotation upside. I don't know if St Louis would be interested in that trade, but thats the type of trade i would look for, if not hold on to him and get the draft pick.

 

Yeah, but ERA is not very important when it comes to minor league pitching prospects. He struck out 160 this year, and it is likely the Cardinals were having him work on certain pitches, before he breaks into the big leagues. He was rated the eighth prospect in all of baseball, and has fantastic stuff.

 

I like your idea, but I don't think we'll get that type of impact prospect for a rental.

Posted
Lee's contract isn't horrible, and he's a great pitcher. It's going to take a lot more than those three to get that deal done. The Phillies are expecting to win next year, so I doubt they want prospects.

 

Victorino isn't going to sign a one year deal.

 

St. Louis won't give up six years of Miller for one year of Ellsbury.

 

Cliff Lee can likely be had for Doubront + Ellsbury, perhaps including Cecchini depending on how much the Phillies eat in salary. If they get salary relief, they can take Ellsbury on and sign him long term. They need offense, bad.

Posted
Ellsbury - CF ($12,000,000)

Pedroia - 2B ($10,000,000)

Ortiz - DH ($15,000,000)

Hamilton - RF ($20,000,000)

Morse - 1B ($5,500,000) OR Napoli ($12,000,000)

Middlebrooks - 3B ($400,000)

Gomes/Nava - LF ($3,000,000)

Lavarnway - C ($400,000)

Iglesis - SS ($2,000,000)

 

Saltalamacchia - C ($2,000,000)

Ciraco - INF ($400,000)

Kalish - OF ($400,000)

Gomez - 1B/COF ($400,000)

 

Johnson - SP ($14,000,000)

Jackson - SP ($14,000,000)

Buchholz - SP ($8,000,000)

Lester - SP ($11,000,000)

Doubront - SP ($400,000)

Lackey - SP ($16,000,000)

 

Bailey - CL ($6,000,000)

Tazawa - MR

Breslow - MR

De La Rosa - MR

Carpenter - MR

Bard - MR

Mortenson - MR

 

Somehow we have to get rid of Lackey.

Posted
Lee is old and gets paid way too much.

 

Um. $25mm/year is not too much for a guy who has given you a 2.76 ERA, 430 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and a 6.19 K:BB ratio over 2 years in his contract.

Posted
Somehow we have to get rid of Lackey.

 

Basically impossible.

 

I'll be honest. If Lackey can just return to his 2011 numbers, where he ate 210 IP to a 4.40 ERA, I'd much rather have him in the 5 slot than to pay for him to pitch somewhere else. And he's actually a good clubhouse guy from all reports.

Posted
And Lackey is basically a 2 year contract for like $17M due to a clause in his contract. This injury season added an extra season in which the Sox will shell out peanuts for him. No reason to sell low on him now.
Posted
And Lackey is basically a 2 year contract for like $17M due to a clause in his contract. This injury season added an extra season in which the Sox will shell out peanuts for him. No reason to sell low on him now.

 

Yeah, the Sox will certainly exercise that. I think it takes his AAV from $16.5mm down to $11.167mm because the Sox have already taken on $49.5mm on his deal. Which ultimately leaves him, as of right now (not exercised option) at 2 years/$33mm left in AAV. Add on a year and $500k, that goes to 3 years/$33.5mm.

 

That's a big amount of savings. Essentially, the Red Sox could exercise the option and then go sign Cody Ross to 2/14 with a $7mm option and only take a $2mm hit on luxury tax calc.

Posted
Cliff Lee can likely be had for Doubront + Ellsbury, perhaps including Cecchini depending on how much the Phillies eat in salary. If they get salary relief, they can take Ellsbury on and sign him long term. They need offense, bad.

 

I want the Red Sox to sign Ellsbury long term. 9 WAR players don't grow on trees, and he might come at a slight discount.

Posted
Basically impossible.

 

I'll be honest. If Lackey can just return to his 2011 numbers, where he ate 210 IP to a 4.40 ERA, I'd much rather have him in the 5 slot than to pay for him to pitch somewhere else. And he's actually a good clubhouse guy from all reports.

 

Lackey for Bay.

 

Bay will cost 21 million for 1 year, or 33 million for 2 years. Lackey will cost 32 million for 3 years. Both have really underperformed during their contracts, both will likely benefit from stadium change.

 

Bay will perform better in Boston, recovering from some injuries/ concussion. Maybe he's done, maybe he's not. But, trading Lackey gets his contract off the board for 2014, and Lackey did have the worst season for a pitcher in baseball in 2011 afterall. Plus removing him from the clubhouse would definitely be a great thing for this team.

Posted
Lackey for Bay.

 

Bay will cost 21 million for 1 year, or 33 million for 2 years. Lackey will cost 32 million for 3 years. Both have really underperformed during their contracts, both will likely benefit from stadium change.

 

Bay will perform better in Boston, recovering from some injuries/ concussion. Maybe he's done, maybe he's not. But, trading Lackey gets his contract off the board for 2014, and Lackey did have the worst season for a pitcher in baseball in 2011 afterall. Plus removing him from the clubhouse would definitely be a great thing for this team.

 

Bay is a total corpse, but I like the idea of the expiring contract.

Posted
I want the Red Sox to sign Ellsbury long term. 9 WAR players don't grow on trees, and he might come at a slight discount.

 

He certainly won't come at a discount. He's a Boras guy, and he's not totally vested in Boston like Weaver was in Anaheim.

 

The Sox would do well to include him in a deal that will pay off for more than just next year.

Posted
Bay is a total corpse, but I like the idea of the expiring contract.

 

He had a .750 OPS this year until he had the second concussion. As I said, he may be done, but who knows, maybe he can return to form.... And that's exactly the same thing we may be saying about Lackey next year, so why not fill a need by getting rid of trash?

Posted
He had a .750 OPS this year until he had the second concussion. As I said, he may be done, but who knows, maybe he can return to form.... And that's exactly the same thing we may be saying about Lackey next year, so why not fill a need by getting rid of trash?

 

Honestly, I think I'd rather have Lackey. I know he had a horrendous, horrendous year in 2011, but that's not indicative of him. His elbow was falling off, he was throwing in pain, his pitches had around zero movement.

 

I want to see what we have in Lackey post-surgery before we just unload him for garbage.

Posted
The only way the Sox would be able to move Lackey is if shows he can pitch. If he shows that he can pitch effectively he would probably be serviceable at the back end of the rotation. Bay is done. We need an OF that can hit for some power and is a decent enough fielder that he can play the monster at home.
Posted
Which ultimately leaves him, as of right now (not exercised option) at 2 years/$33mm left in AAV. Add on a year and $500k, that goes to 3 years/$33.5mm.
I don't think he will be productive in 3 years.
Posted

C-Lavarnway

1b-Gomez

2b-Pedrois

ss-Iglesias

3b-Middlebrooks

Lf-Nava

Cf-Kalish

Rf-Linares

Dh-Ortiz

 

reserves

veteran backup catcher

Ciriaco

Brentz

Valencia

 

sp Lackey,Doubront,Morales,Buchholz(cheap veteran mediocre to eat some innings)

 

pen Miller,Tazawa,bailey.Morteneson,Wilson,Hill,Carpenter

 

Ross-not resigned

Ellsbury and Lester dealt for prospects Salty and Aceves for what we can get

 

Playing for 2014-bring up Boagarts and Bradley late next year maybe Barnes too

Would rather win 65 games next year and rebuild than tinker and win 85

Posted
C-Lavarnway

1b-Gomez

2b-Pedrois

ss-Iglesias

3b-Middlebrooks

Lf-Nava

Cf-Kalish

Rf-Linares

Dh-Ortiz

 

reserves

veteran backup catcher

Ciriaco

Brentz

Valencia

 

sp Lackey,Doubront,Morales,Buchholz(cheap veteran mediocre to eat some innings)

 

pen Miller,Tazawa,bailey.Morteneson,Wilson,Hill,Carpenter

 

Ross-not resigned

Ellsbury and Lester dealt for prospects Salty and Aceves for what we can get

 

Playing for 2014-bring up Boagarts and Bradley late next year maybe Barnes too

Would rather win 65 games next year and rebuild than tinker and win 85

^This would be a last place team, maybe one of the worst rosters in all of baseball.
Posted
There's no reason for this team to NOT be competitive next year .

They have so much money off the payroll that they can surely make a few big moves .

They certainly have a clean slate and plenty of resources to field a competitive team. The only questions are whether they have the will and capability to do so. If they field another 4th or last place team, they will have no excuses.
Posted
Exactly -build for 2014-15

 

Their Payroll for next year is roughly 80 MIL . Nevermind to build , go out and spend and make trades and be ready for next year.

Posted
I want the roster without Kalish, Gomez, Nava, Iglesias, Loney, Valencia.
I would keep Iglesias to give him a shot, but I agree that we should take out the rest of the garbage.

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