Addressing the Starting Pitching

[Taz]

What would it take to get a genuine, top of the range ace? Not kidding around, someone of the quality of Verlander, King Felix, Halladay, Lee, etc? Not necessarily inquiring after these guys, but someone of that calibre.

[RedSoxNC84]

We need a real picthing coach. That's the only other way I can find to explain everyone's drop in velocity.

 

If we get a pitching coach that can make things work, the pieces we have will look a little better, but they still definitely need top pitching help, no doubt about that.

[Elktonnick]

We need a real picthing coach. That's the only other way I can find to explain everyone's drop in velocity.

 

If we get a pitching coach that can make things work, the pieces we have will look a little better, but they still definitely need top pitching help, no doubt about that.

 

There is a theory that throwing the cutter causes a pitcher to lose velocity on his fastball over time. Phil Hughes stopped throwing the cutter and his velocity reportedly increased. Dan Duquette has banned the teaching of the cutter to minor leaguers in the O's system.

[redsoxfan3]

Two free agents that really intrigue me are Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson. Lohse is having a career year. Jackson has posted an ERA below 4.00 the last two years. Is it realistic to sign Lohse to a 2 year/20-25 million deal? Is it realistic to sign Jackson to a 1 year/10 or 11 million deal? I think both could be good additions to our rotation.

 

It is clear that neither are true aces, but if you put a solid four in your rotation of Lohse, Buchholz, Jackson, and Lester with Doubront, Lackey, Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa fighting for the 5th spot, that could be a lot better of a rotation than we saw this year. If we sign both, then that means we could potentially try to trade a guy like Doubront for some prospects, or package both Doubront and Lester in a deal if we can package them together to get a true ace.

 

We do have internal options next year for the rotation. We have Lackey, Doubront, De La Rosa, Aceves, Morales, Buchholz, and Lester. The thing is that we need to improve. Lackey could be a decent number 5, but he is a toss up. Lester is probably nothing more than a #3 or #4. Doubront has potential. Buchholz could be a solid #2 or #3 if he is consistent. I just think we need to improve with external options. If we can trade Aceves, then I am all for it. I do not like his attitude. Odds are that both Morales and Aceves stay in the pen if both are still with the team. De La Rosa could be ready, but he needs to have a solid Spring. He might start the year in AAA.

 

I guess where I am going with this, is do you think Lohse and Jackson would be good additions? Who should stay with the team and who should we try to trade? It is pretty obvious Lackey will be with the team, if we have too many starters, is it realistic that he could go to the pen?

[SoxFanForsyth]

I agree. The deal was first and foremost a salary dump. LA was not going to assume that level of salaries and give us top prospects too. If we get anything from any of those guys, I will consider it gravy.

 

Allen Webster was the #61 prospect on Keith Law's top 100 coming into this season (to put it into perspective, Xander Bogaerts was #62). He was #80 on Fangraphs top 100, and #95 on Baseball America's top 100.

 

The question is this. Do you think Matt Barnes is a good pitching prospect? Because if you do, both Webster and De La Rosa are ranked above him in the Sox organization according to Keith Law. That's a big statement.

 

Matt Barnes was ranked as the #13 prospect in the MLB on Baseball America's midseason top 50. Again, just for perspective. This is where these players are ranking.

 

De La Rosa threw 60.2 IP to a 3.71 ERA as a 22 year old in 2011 for the Dodgers before his elbow gave out. He From 07-2011, he has the 2nd highest average velocity of any pitcher (min 50 IP) at 96.54 MPH (behind Cashner at 97.27).

 

If you don't want a 24 year old who throws upper 90's as a starter in our rotation, then I have no idea what you DO want.

[a700hitter]

Allen Webster was the #61 prospect on Keith Law's top 100 coming into this season (to put it into perspective, Xander Bogaerts was #62). He was #80 on Fangraphs top 100, and #95 on Baseball America's top 100.

 

The question is this. Do you think Matt Barnes is a good pitching prospect? Because if you do, both Webster and De La Rosa are ranked above him in the Sox organization according to Keith Law. That's a big statement.

 

Matt Barnes was ranked as the #13 prospect in the MLB on Baseball America's midseason top 50. Again, just for perspective. This is where these players are ranking.

 

De La Rosa threw 60.2 IP to a 3.71 ERA as a 22 year old in 2011 for the Dodgers before his elbow gave out. He From 07-2011, he has the 2nd highest average velocity of any pitcher (min 50 IP) at 96.54 MPH (behind Cashner at 97.27).

 

If you don't want a 24 year old who throws upper 90's as a starter in our rotation, then I have no idea what you DO want.

I am not counting on Matt barnes hitting our rotation next season. That would be a real long shot. He'll probably get a couple of innings in ST if he is lucky before he is reassigned. Am I optimistic about Barnes being in the Red Sox rotation some day? He has a couple of more big steps to take before he's ready. What will he be when/if he gets here? He's not a can't miss top of the rotation talent. If he is ultimately a #4 or 5, is that anything to get excited about? I am not saying these Dodger guys will not make it. I am saying that if they make it, it will be gravy. The #1 objective of that trade was to offload payroll. The guys we got in return were probably little more than spare parts for the Dodgers with little future in their organization. The Dodgers are one of the best organizations at pumping up mediocre prospects that never amount to anything. They have a long long history of that.

[Behindenemylines]

The hope with acquiring as many young arms as possible is that there is at least one diamond out of the masses. If you look at the Rays they are loaded with young SP. They did it through the draft. With the Sox getting a low pick in this years draft they have to make it count. You look at all of the true aces in baseball and they are all top ten picks. It would be nice to draft such a player.

[DocHolliday]

Well, we can officially scratch Colby Lewis off the list of potential starting depth options for next season as he signed a 1 year extension with the Rangers for next season. He will be 33 and coming off of TJ around the All Star break next season.

[Palodios]

What would it take to get a genuine, top of the range ace? Not kidding around, someone of the quality of Verlander, King Felix, Halladay, Lee, etc? Not necessarily inquiring after these guys, but someone of that calibre.

 

Verlander, Felix, and Halladay aren't going anywhere. Cliff Lee would cost an elite prospect, and to pick up that ugly contract. We're more likely to see a guy with ace potential than one of those guys on contending teams.

 

However, the three best options I see right now are Josh Johnson, Jake Peavy, and Lincecum. All three have gone through their rough patches, but all three have trended upwards recently. They should be relatively cheap because they have only one year left before they hit free agency. Maybe Doubront + a mid-tier prospect gets it done?

[DocHolliday]

Verlander, Felix, and Halladay aren't going anywhere. Cliff Lee would cost an elite prospect, and to pick up that ugly contract. We're more likely to see a guy with ace potential than one of those guys on contending teams.

 

However, the three best options I see right now are Josh Johnson, Jake Peavy, and Lincecum. All three have gone through their rough patches, but all three have trended upwards recently. They should be relatively cheap because they have only one year left before they hit free agency. Maybe Doubront + a mid-tier prospect gets it done?

 

Peavy is definitely the most intriguing of those options for me - just because the Sox wouldn't have to give up any prospects. Unlike the other guys, Peavy has a $22 M club option for next season, which the White Sox will not exercise. Peavy would become a free agent and would not cost Doubront or prospects to acquire. The other guys are younger but would require a LT extension similar to the Gonzalez trade. Peavy on the other hand could be signed for shorter years and $ than the other guys, despite his age. With his injury history, I doubt a team would commit to him beyond his age 35 season (greater than a 4 year deal).

 

Other guys, like Haren, represent similar options in FA the Sox could take - particularly if any of these pitchers are looking for 1 year pillow type of contracts.

[Palodios]

Peavy is definitely the most intriguing of those options for me - just because the Sox wouldn't have to give up any prospects. Unlike the other guys, Peavy has a $22 M club option for next season, which the White Sox will not exercise. Peavy would become a free agent and would not cost Doubront or prospects to acquire. The other guys are younger but would require a LT extension similar to the Gonzalez trade. Peavy on the other hand could be signed for shorter years and $ than the other guys, despite his age. With his injury history, I doubt a team would commit to him beyond his age 35 season (greater than a 4 year deal).

 

Other guys, like Haren, represent similar options in FA the Sox could take - particularly if any of these pitchers are looking for 1 year pillow type of contracts.

 

Who said the White Sox won't excercise the option? After the season Peavy has had, and the huge amount of prospects the White Sox traded to get him, I think they'll continue to put faith into him, or at the least excercise the option and get value back for him.

[a700hitter]

Who said the White Sox won't excercise the option? After the season Peavy has had, and the huge amount of prospects the White Sox traded to get him, I think they'll continue to put faith into him, or at the least excercise the option and get value back for him.

This is the first good year that he has had in a while, and $22 million is a big price tag. I think it is more likely that they choose not to execise the option. I don't think it is sound business to overpay a player in hopes of getting value in return for prospects that you have already traded. That's throwing good money away after bad money.

[jacksonianmarch]

It is effectively a $17 mil option since the buyout is $5 mil. His production is worth $17 mil, so I think they exercise the option. They have no other recourse. Floyd has regressed, Danks just had his shoulder scoped and Sale will be going into his second season after a massive IP jump.

[DocHolliday]

Perhaps it's time to consider more than just player moves to fix the pitching next season and going forward. Outside of Buchholz, this organization has managed to extract the upside of just about every pitcher that has been with this team over the past few seasons. Yes, there are examples like Buchholz and Tazawa. But there are far more examples of mysterious under performers like Melancon, Bard, Lackey, and, to some extent, Lester.

 

Whether its poor evaluation/acquisition, poor coaching, or poor preparation/conditioning, it's clear that this organization needs to look outside the organization for answers to improve ALL of these aspects. Yes, talent will ultimately be what turns this tide, but without the proper support system, I'm afraid we fans will continue to be let down and frustrated by the pitching failures.

[Palodios]

This is the first good year that he has had in a while, and $22 million is a big price tag. I think it is more likely that they choose not to execise the option. I don't think it is sound business to overpay a player in hopes of getting value in return for prospects that you have already traded. That's throwing good money away after bad money.

 

Good call. Reports from earlier today are saying that Peavy's option will not be picked up.

 

I would absolutely love to get this guy. If he is willing to come here on a short term, high annual value contract, he could anchor this rotation for the next 2-3 years while the younger players develop, and/or ace becomes available (in the case Peavy doesn't).

[Behindenemylines]

If Peavy is healthy and available he would worth a look. It would have to be short term, high annual value contract. I hope the Sox learned their lesson after Lackey.

[Taz]

Considering how piss poor Buchholz started off this year, he really has been one of the genuinely few bright lights this season. Another high quality start tonight (and deserves the win if the bullpen can close it out), another 7 IP, 0 runs & 2 of the 3(or was it 4?) hits he allowed should have been routine outs had Ciriaco been able to play CF.

 

One of the few players that looks like he does care about what is happening & wants to do well, even if it is just for his own professional pride. If the organization can get a fair dinkum proper ace to head up the rotation think this guy will just continue going from strength to strength.

[Spitball]

I look at Peavy's 28 wins with the White Sox in the 4 years since he was acquired, and the 37 wins Clayton Richard, one of the prospects the Padres received for Peavy, has won, and I wonder about acquiring big names when prosects might be more rewarding.

[Palodios]

I look at Peavy's 28 wins with the White Sox in the 4 years since he was acquired, and the 37 wins Clayton Richard, one of the prospects the Padres received for Peavy, has won, and I wonder about acquiring big names when prosects might be more rewarding.

 

If you look at Richard's splits, it ends up pretty obvious that Petco is doing most of the work. Seriously man, these are pretty insane.

 

2012 Home 2.75 ERA

2012 Away 4.57 ERA

 

2011 Home 2.30 ERA

2011 Away 5.30 ERA

 

2010 Home 3.15 ERA

2010 Away 4.41 ERA

 

2012 Home 3.82

2012 Away 4.95

[a700hitter]

Anyone that thinks our pen will be strong without adding to it has not taken a close look at the late inning and close game numbers. I am not sold on the injury prone Bailey being the next Papelbon. He s*** all over himself tonight in his only real pressure situation this season. Aceves may need a change of scenery, and he is not a reliable closer or 8th inning guy. He is a good flex/long reliever. We need to bring another strong arm in house, because we don't have one in the organization yet. Maybe Tazawa develops like a Robertson, but I wouldn't hand him the 8th inning job just yet. Let him go through the fire next season and win the spot.

[DocHolliday]

I look at Peavy's 28 wins with the White Sox in the 4 years since he was acquired, and the 37 wins Clayton Richard, one of the prospects the Padres received for Peavy, has won, and I wonder about acquiring big names when prosects might be more rewarding.

 

No doubt the Sox will need to rebuild the pitching with a strong emphasis on drafting, developing, and acquiring pitching prospects. But they will need to supplement those prospects with short term, high value veteran pitchers.

 

As many media outlets and fans alike have speculated, it looks the like White Sox won't be picking up Peavy's option for next season. If this does become the case, he'll hit the FA market coming off a strong season. If he's looking for a 2 or 3 year deal at reasonable $, he would make sense signing.

 

Lots of opportunity for improvement with so many aspects of this team and so many ways to improve. This is shaping up to be a very intriguing and important off season.

[Spitball]

If you look at Richard's splits, it ends up pretty obvious that Petco is doing most of the work. Seriously man, these are pretty insane.

 

2012 Home 2.75 ERA

2012 Away 4.57 ERA

 

2011 Home 2.30 ERA

2011 Away 5.30 ERA

 

2010 Home 3.15 ERA

2010 Away 4.41 ERA

 

2012 Home 3.82

2012 Away 4.95

 

Home or away, production counts the same. Richard has been healthy and has been paid a mere fraction of what Peavy has been paid.

 

Peavy is owed $22 million next year. I'd rather take my chances on Richard and his $2,700,000 contract.

[RedSoxNC84]

Does anyone still think they will contend next season?

[Bellhorn04]

Does anyone still think they will contend next season?

 

They certainly could contend for a playoff spot, considering that they now only have about $50 million in payroll committed for next year. The rest is up to Benny Boy.

[Palodios]

Home or away, production counts the same. Richard has been healthy and has been paid a mere fraction of what Peavy has been paid.

 

Peavy is owed $22 million next year. I'd rather take my chances on Richard and his $2,700,000 contract.

 

Sure, it counts the same, but we're discussing which players would be good to bring into the Red Sox to turn around the issues with starting pitching.

 

If you put Richard into Fenway, which stats do you think are going to be more relevant ? He'd get hammered. His K/9 is about 4. He has a pretty decent number of ground balls, but if you bring him into Fenway, you're paying a premium on him, and only likely to get back around a 4.50 ERA. Doubront will probably give that kind of production, and odds are, he'll be the guy you'd trade for Richard.

[a700hitter]

Does anyone still think they will contend next season?

With the payroll flexibility that they have, they should be able to field a contending team if they make the right moves. Here are our vacancies as we go into the offseason:

 

First Base-- Maybe they go on the cheap with a Gomez/Loney platoon for 1 season

Shortstop-- It doesn't look like Iglesias is ready to hold down the job

LF

4th OFer

2 Starting Pitchers

1 Quality Reliable End of the Bullpen Arm

 

I think they have the payroll flexibility to fill almost all of these needs through freaa agency or trades. I don't have much confidence that they will make these moves.

[a700hitter]

Greinke has done very well in the heat of a pennant race with the Angels. The concerns about his makeup based on an anxiety issue that he had several years ago are overblown in my opinion.

[Spitball]

Sure, it counts the same, but we're discussing which players would be good to bring into the Red Sox to turn around the issues with starting pitching.

 

If you put Richard into Fenway, which stats do you think are going to be more relevant ? He'd get hammered. His K/9 is about 4. He has a pretty decent number of ground balls, but if you bring him into Fenway, you're paying a premium on him, and only likely to get back around a 4.50 ERA. Doubront will probably give that kind of production, and odds are, he'll be the guy you'd trade for Richard.

 

I guess I didn't make my point very well. I was not advocating the Sox acquire Richard. I was pointing out that trades for high priced pitchers often times don't work out. The White Sox have paid a lot for a good pitcher who has been injured a lot. The Red Sox have also paid a lot for injured and ineffective pitchers.

 

I am all for seeing them go in a different direction.

[SoxSport]

You look at the starters, and none of these guys --almost--have survived the season. The question is why? They should be looking at their training methods, because durability does not define Red Sox pitchers.

[Station 13]

With the payroll flexibility that they have, they should be able to field a contending team if they make the right moves. Here are our vacancies as we go into the offseason:

 

First Base-- Maybe they go on the cheap with a Gomez/Loney platoon for 1 season

Shortstop-- It doesn't look like Iglesias is ready to hold down the job

LF

4th OFer

2 Starting Pitchers

1 Quality Reliable End of the Bullpen Arm

 

I think they have the payroll flexibility to fill almost all of these needs through freaa agency or trades. I don't have much confidence that they will make these moves.

 

Way too much to do in 1 offseason.

 

I think by 2014 they will begin to make a push and have built a core to contend for a long time. Much depends on Barnes, Bradley and Bogaerts. To fill a starter role, lead off and middle of order bat.

 

Under control players and payroll flexibility allows them to spend on FA as you said.