Addressing the Starting Pitching

[jung]

Oh come on.....that list of players to build from is a house of cards. Ells....gone by 2014, Lester...massive question mark in need of a major mechanical makeover, Middlebrooks......dripping with potential but far from a complete player at this point in his career, Buch.....Bingo as long as he finally stays healthy, Pedey....Bingo, Ortiz.....at his age you are simply waiting for the carriage to turn into a pumpkin. He is aging, getting injured more often and unable to come back as quickly as he did when he was younger. You cannot consider Ortiz a building block...he is a bridge....at best.

 

Need I remind us that save WMB, this is the same crowd that was right in the middle of a huge flop in 2011 and failed completely in 2012?

[a700hitter]

The only reason it was brought up seems to be because you linked previous WS victories with a comment about this FO not having built it. It was a shot at this ownerships claim to success. Obviously they played a huge role in transforming what they had into the team that won the WS. There's no question..

No, I did not. Look back at the thread. MVP compared the 2001 squad inherited by the FO to the collection of garbage that we have now. That is not even a close comparison. They inherited a very talented roster, far more than the talent currently in the organization. No credit was taken from them for either 2004 or 2007. They have just never built a team from the ground up from a situation like exists today. We don't know how well they will do this.

 

People get all bent out of shape when the truth is stated. We know that this FO can run a great team into the ground. We don't know if they can rebuild a team that is at the bottom of the heap. We will find out. This is a true statement. It pisses people off, but the FO has done a truly terrible job over the last 3+ years and 2012 is the culmination of lots of bad decisions. This didn't happen over night. This is not an aberration as some people viewed September 2011. This is a sick organization.

[a700hitter]

I would argue that a core of Pedroia, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester, Middlebrooks, Ortiz is more than enough foundation to say that the Red Sox will be "building from nothing" is an inaccurate assessment.

Is there a Pedro-like ace in this group? No, there isn't any sort of ace in that group. Lester is at best a #3. Does anyone in this group compare to Manny in his prime? We are a last place quality team right now. If these guys are the core, then we are in trouble. Maybe WMB turns out to be a total stud, but the rest just isn't very good for an elite team.

[a700hitter]

I don't believe that this Red Sox ownership group has confronted anything like the challenge it has before it now. This is a complete ground up rebuilding project that will likely require major changes in both the team and the organization.

 

Just looking at the team for example, they are at such a crossroads that they could if they choose decide to go with a complete youth movement employing guys that played in Pawtucket in 2012 in several key positions in 2013. They were not in anything like that sort of position going into the 2007 season. Even if one wanted to argue that the dismantling of a very good team did not happen on their watch it would not be possible to argue that anything they have done up to this point is the equivalent of the challenge that faces them today.

 

This discussion reminds me of many of the discussions that occurred after 2011 when we had many adopt the view that all this team needed was a few minor tweaks to be very competitive in 2012. How did that work out for ya'?

 

It needs much more than a few minor tweaks including a complete overhaul of the starting pitching and the bull pen.

 

In virtually every position or grouping of personnel assets, the only "bases" they have covered are those that are the easiest to cover. They once again have question marks all over the rotation. The closest thing they have to a sure thing in the rotation is Buch. The bullpen is a mess. They have a bunch of guys that would possibly fit into middle to long relief roles starting fresh innings. They do not have a reliable "fireman" anywhere and the key setup and closer positions are anything but solid. Aceves for his part, will very likely be gone as he has become just the sort of player they will likely decide they need to get off of this team going forward. You could probably convince yourself that Tazawa gets one of the key set up positions and beyond that you have just about nothing solid. Atch will very likely opt for TJ in the offseason and he did not do well in fireman roles or very often late in games. So once again even he represents the type of relief arm they have.

 

The everyday players have Pedey and then what? Is there anybody beyond Pedey that is not flawed in some major way? WMB maybe if he improves in some key areas. WMB is an exciting player dripping with potential but he is far from a complete player at this point. Ells is very likely gone after 2013. The only good thing you can say about the situation in CF is that the Sox likely have his replacement down on the farm. If anything the Sox might decide to bring Ortiz back for that exact reason. They don't have everyday player positions locked down anywhere with a high likelihood of employing a pretty large contingent of the 2012 Pawtucket roster as the core of the 2013 Sox team making Ortiz more attractive than he might be otherwise.

 

The youth movement option is not only likely but may well be recommended. However it certainly does not sound promising in the near term. Even our hopes for 2014 would in the main appear to hinge upon employing even more players from the farm system to supplement those Pawtucket players that will likely be used extensively in 2013. I am not charging that this might be wrong headed, just the opposite. However it simply does not suggest a team that will occupy a strong 2013 position in an AL that is choke full of beefed up teams. Missteps they take in 2013 and 2014 will have implications for the 2015 and 2016 teams. So they have little room for more of the ******** that has typified their decision making about personnel since the Beckett extension of 2010 or in the blink of an eye they could be looking at yet another four to five years of not being competitive even while making improvements.

 

There is one thing I have seen in the last few weeks, specifically since "the trade" that the Sox themselves should look at seriously. Once the shock of the trade was behind them, the team that remained played more like a team than at any time this season up to that point. It is not a good team. As such, it has not done all that well but it has played more like a team even while still having some guys around that likely need to just plain GO. One reason that going with the youth movement seems so appealing is because the team it has today is dripping with mediocrity. Under those circumstances, why not go with a young, interesting group of players that will at the very least play cohesively around Pedey at the center of it all. Ross is the most interesting of the highly flawed group which includes Aviles, Salty, Pods, Nava, Loney, Sweeney.....it just goes on and on. I can surely see them keeping Ross but the rest should be gone or will have much reduced roles in 2013. Either they are players with a very specific talent like Ross, or players with little to no talent that make due by having become experienced students of the game like Nava.

 

Coaches and the Manager will change......and THEN there is the FO and upper management.

I agree with you. This is an organization in disarray. There are a lot of holes. IMO opinion, they should fix the pitching first, because that will return the team to competitiveness more quickly. It is not a short term fix, because pitching should always be the foundation. They can attack the other holes incrementally as the opportunities present themselves. There should not be a wait and see attitude on the pitching. They need to aggressively rebuild the pitching. I have little confidence in the ability of this organization with regard to the evaluation of pitching.

[wyo-sox]

I really believe our everyday players are good enough to be a good team. Put Ortiz, Middlebrooks, and Sweeney back in and its a decent team. First base is a question, but maybe Gomez will surprise.

 

We need two great pitchers added to the rotation.

 

1. Ace

2. Ace or darn close

3. Clay Buch.

4. Lester

5. Dubront.

6. Let Lackey, Morales and whoever fight out for this.

 

CF. Ells

SS. Ciriaco

2B. Pedroia

3B. Middlebrooks

DH. Ortiz

LF. Ross

1B. Gomez??????

RF. Sweeney

C. Lavs / Salty

 

backup infielder Aviles

Several backup outfielders, Pods, Nava......

 

With a bad rotation of pitchers this is not a good enough lineup. Add a couple great starters this lineup can compete just fine.

 

Should be a very very interesting off season.

[a700hitter]

I really believe our everyday players are good enough to be a good team. Put Ortiz, Middlebrooks, and Sweeney back in and its a decent team. First base is a question, but maybe Gomez will surprise.

 

We need two great pitchers added to the rotation.

 

1. Ace

2. Ace or darn close

3. Clay Buch.

4. Lester

5. Dubront.

6. Let Lackey, Morales and whoever fight out for this.

 

CF. Ells

SS. Ciriaco

2B. Pedroia

3B. Middlebrooks

DH. Ortiz

LF. Ross

1B. Gomez??????

RF. Sweeney

C. Lavs / Salty

 

backup infielder Aviles

Several backup outfielders, Pods, Nava......

 

With a bad rotation of pitchers this is not a good enough lineup. Add a couple great starters this lineup can compete just fine.

 

Should be a very very interesting off season.

I agree with everything except a couple of items. Sweeney and Nava have no place on the 25 man roster of a winning team. They both stink.

[wyo-sox]

I agree with everything except a couple of items. Sweeney and Nava have no place on the 25 man roster of a winning team. They both stink.

 

I would have no problem saying Nava does not belong. But I like what I saw out of Sweeney. But if we agree on everything but one player that is pretty sweet, lol.

[a700hitter]

I would have no problem saying Nava does not belong. But I like what I saw out of Sweeney. But if we agree on everything but one player that is pretty sweet, lol.

I could live with him as a 4th OFer, but he has no pop at all. Outfielders have to have some pop.

[Palodios]

Is there a Pedro-like ace in this group? No, there isn't any sort of ace in that group. Lester is at best a #3. Does anyone in this group compare to Manny in his prime? We are a last place quality team right now. If these guys are the core, then we are in trouble. Maybe WMB turns out to be a total stud, but the rest just isn't very good for an elite team.

 

Where was Pedro in 2007?

 

Dustin Pedroia's MVP awards: 1.

Manny Ramirez's MVP awards: 0.

 

Are you forgetting that Manny Ramirez was a complete hack defensively? All the advanced statistics say this his glove cost the Red Sox a considerable amount of runs.

[a700hitter]

Where was Pedro in 2007?

 

Dustin Pedroia's MVP awards: 1.

Manny Ramirez's MVP awards: 0.

 

Are you forgetting that Manny Ramirez was a complete hack defensively? All the advanced statistics say this his glove cost the Red Sox a considerable amount of runs.

If I knew what point you were trying to make, I'd respond.

[Palodios]

If I knew what point you were trying to make, I'd respond.

 

You're arguing two things: That the Red Sox FO haven't built its own group of winning players. And that this team doesn't have a solid core of players to work with. I disagree.

[a700hitter]

You're arguing two things: That the Red Sox FO haven't built its own group of winning players. And that this team doesn't have a solid core of players to work with. I disagree.

No I have not argued the former at all.

 

And yes I disagree that we have a solid core of players to work with. The core that we have in house (except for WMB ) has produced a truly horrible record since the end of August 2011. The current core is also aging at key spots (Ortiz) and under performing to the point of great concern at other spots (Ellsbury and Lester).

[Palodios]

No I have not argued the former at all.

 

And yes I disagree that we have a solid core of players to work with. The core that we have in house (except for WMB) has produced a truly horrible record since the end of August 2011. The current core is also aging at key spots (Ortiz) and under performing to the point of great concern at other spots (Ellsbury and Lester).

 

A core group of players won't necessarily win if the expendable parts suck. If you took Jeter, Pettite, Rivera, and Posada, and surrounded them with Darnell Mcdonald, Mark Melancon, Mike Aviles, James Loney, Aaron Cook, Podsednik and Dice-k, do you think they would have won so many championships? Ofcourse not.

 

Either Pedroia or Ellsbury could turn it around and win a MVP in 2013. Lester and Buchholz have been aces before, and could be again. Ortiz has the highest OPS of any hitter in the majors this year.

 

The Red Sox have work to do. A s*** ton of work to do. But they have the money to do it. If they picked up Victorino, Peavy, traded Doubront for Josh Johnson, and got creative to put a quality bat at 1B, they'll be a very good baseball team in 2013, without doing too much damage to their farm system.

[vjcsmoke]

It's not that easy to find an ace pitcher.

Lester, Buccholz, and Doubront form a solid core.

And we can let whatever youngsters we have battle for that 5th spot or sign a few cheap vets and see who sticks for #5 starter position.

Not sure where that ace is coming from though. I think we avoid spending Lackey type money on starters unless we are sure they can come in and play in fenway under the microscope of the boston media.

[a700hitter]

A core group of players won't necessarily win if the expendable parts suck. If you took Jeter, Pettite, Rivera, and Posada, and surrounded them with Darnell Mcdonald, Mark Melancon, Mike Aviles, James Loney, Aaron Cook, Podsednik and Dice-k, do you think they would have won so many championships? Ofcourse not.

 

Either Pedroia or Ellsbury could turn it around and win a MVP in 2013. Lester and Buchholz have been aces before, and could be again. Ortiz has the highest OPS of any hitter in the majors this year.

 

The Red Sox have work to do. A s*** ton of work to do. But they have the money to do it. If they picked up Victorino, Peavy, traded Doubront for Josh Johnson, and got creative to put a quality bat at 1B, they'll be a very good baseball team in 2013, without doing too much damage to their farm system.

Yes, they are faced with more work than they have had in the past. We will find out if they are up to it. The jury is out.

[a700hitter]

It's not that easy to find an ace pitcher.

Lester, Buccholz, and Doubront form a solid core.

And we can let whatever youngsters we have battle for that 5th spot or sign a few cheap vets and see who sticks for #5 starter position.

Not sure where that ace is coming from though. I think we avoid spending Lackey type money on starters unless we are sure they can come in and play in fenway under the microscope of the boston media.

^ and that will be the staff of a 4th place team.

[jung]

Buch is the guy they can build around as he looks like he could be a solid 2 on a competing team rotation. Lester has to rebuild his mechanics in the off season and Felix while coming a long way is not what I would describe as solid at this point.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Buch is the guy they can build around as he looks like he could be a solid 2 on a competing team rotation. Lester has to rebuild his mechanics in the off season and Felix while coming a long way is not what I would describe as solid at this point.

 

Agree.

 

I would be ok going into next season with Buch as the #2 starter, Lester as the #4 starter, and Lackey as the #5 starter, with Doubront being dealt in a deal for an ace.

 

The fact that Buch is that has come around extremely well (after those 5 starts where he apparently had to shake off some rust), and he's thrown 150 IP over 21 starts (over 7 IP per start) to a 3.08 ERA starting with his 6th start of the year. He's dropped his ERA down to a 4.16, which, considering where it was on early May, that's absolutely incredible.

 

He can certainly be counted on as a #2 in the rotation. That means you go out and get Cliff Lee (2.40 ERA in his last 110 IP) and slot him in the ace slot. You trade Doubront and you take on $24mm of his $25mm each year. Then you go out and you sign a very solid #3 that you can count on, like Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson.

 

That's how you fix this team. It starts with the rotation, and you go out and get high OBP guys like Shin Soo Choo for RF and Nick Swisher for 1B.

[jacksonianmarch]

To get an "ace" you have to deal Doubront plus probably one of your B's to get into the equation. Doubie has promise, but he is far from a young ace in the making. He has a lot of warts but a lot of potential

[Dojji]

Forget about freaking dealing for an ace. Not happening. People seem to be under the delusion that we'll be able to pull Pedro out of the aether any time we want another one. That was a once in a generation thing, not likely to be repeated in our lifetimes. Not that I'd say no to another Schilling either, but I don't see that guy right now either, unless you want to talk about trading for Roy Halladay.

 

It takes more than money to build a championship caliber roster. Even the Yankees have had their turn in the basement. Which is why I feel people are being a little hard on our ownership now. Entropy is the natural order of things, and that means it takes extraordinary skill to continuously avoid it. The fact that they're not superhuman doesn't make this team's staff incompetent. It just means that all things end.

 

It's going to take a long time getting back to the level we awere at before, not because the ownership sucks, but because there's unique challenges to succeeding in this division and not everyone can play well here. If we're ever going to get there though we need to stop throwing away talented-but-flawed young players in the name of short term solutions. Masterson for Martinez, Lowrie for Melancon and Reddick for Bailey are all exactly the kind of deal that should never have been made by this team and if we ever want to be good again we won't make them again.

[Bellhorn04]

It takes more than money to build a championship caliber roster. Even the Yankees have had their turn in the basement. Which is why I feel people are being a little hard on our ownership now. Entropy is the natural order of things, and that means it takes extraordinary skill to continuously avoid it. The fact that they're not superhuman doesn't make this team's staff incompetent. It just means that all things end.

 

The Yankees are on their way to making the playoffs for the 17th time in 18 years. The one year they missed, in 2008, they still won 89 games.

 

The last time they finished in the basement was 1990, back when no team had a payroll higher than 24 million.

 

So I don't think the comparison to the Yankees stands up. They have clearly been a lot better than us at sustaining success.

[Dojji]

They also have a lot more ability to make strong moves without eliminating their ability to compete long term.

 

We are not the yankees. And even the yankees have their turns in the gutter. Think about it.

[Bellhorn04]

They also have a lot more ability to make strong moves without eliminating their ability to compete long term.

 

We are not the yankees. And even the yankees have their turns in the gutter. Think about it.

 

I've thought about it and I'm sticking to what I said. We've narrowed the payroll gap enormously, but they've made better personnel moves than we have the last few years.

 

If we had this discussion before this year I might have agreed with you. But when we assess the state of the team in 2012 there's no getting around the fact that a lot of mistakes have been made that have contributed to where the team is now.

[Station 13]

Getting an ace is not a must do or die. Getting 200 inning out each of Lester, Buchholz and Doubront is.

 

We will finally have some starting depth with Webster and Workman/De La Rosa. We had none of that this year and had to use Cook(ed).

 

The BP of Tazawa, Breslow and Bailey is a good start. Miller is a turd. You never know what he brings. Hope Bard can find redemption. We'd have a killer pen if he resumes the relief ace.

 

Some intersting FA: Kyle Loshe and Kuroda to consider.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Webster is going to start 2013 in AA most likely, with a mid season call up to AAA and potential for the rotation in 2014.

 

De La Rosa will either be a late inning reliever or a starter in 2013, but will be with the rotation.

 

Barnes will likely start 2013 in AA, and potentially could be in AAA by the end of the season, depending on how he performs in Portland. He's a guy who will likely be up to Boston in mid-2014.

 

That's 3 middle to top of the rotation starters right there who should be in the rotation within the next 1.5 seasons. I can't remember the last time the Red Sox had pitching prospects like this. Maybe when they had Lester and Buch, but they never had that 3rd piece like they have now. And that's not even discussing Owens, who many believe is the top SP in the Sox rotation.

 

In terms of trading for Lee, I don't think they'd have to give up Doubront + a B, because the Sox will be absorbing about 95% of the salary.

 

I would be shocked if Doubront was with the Red Sox in 2013, though.

 

The more I think about it, I also think the Sox will go into 2013 by acquiring an ace such as Lee or Lincecum, and going Lee/Lincecum - Buchholz - Lester - De La Rosa - Lackey.

 

I know a lot of people want to go get 2 pitchers, but when you've got an ace in the making in De La Rosa, you've got to give him a chance to show what he can do. He'll be 24 next season, that's time to get him in the game. You don't wait for a guy with that quality of an arm to be 25 before you call him up.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Having said all of that, I cannot fathom that people don't think this team needs an ace on the staff after watching this year unfold.

 

A Kuroda or a Lohse (who has a 4.44 career ERA and is 34 this year) isn't going to get this team where they need to be. Not even close. If we go into 2013 with the same rotation as right now + Kuroda/Lohse, this will be another 84-86 win team.

[jacksonianmarch]

They also have a lot more ability to make strong moves without eliminating their ability to compete long term.

 

We are not the yankees. And even the yankees have their turns in the gutter. Think about it.

 

Everyone seems to think the Yankees just throw money at their problems. I want you to look at the reasons why the Yankees are where they are right now...

 

Robinson Cano- home grown

Andy Pettitte- $2 mil signing

Hiroki Kuroda- 1 yr, $10 mil deal (a pittance for good pitching)

Russell Martin- non-tender signee two yrs back

Eric Chavez- $1 mil per yr

Raul Ibanez- $1 mil per yr

Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes- home grown

David Phelps, David Robertson- home grown

Jeter- home grown, ridiculous contract

Granderson- acquired in a trade that wasnt a salary dump

Swisher- acquired in a trade

 

The big money expenditures on this team are guys like Tex, Arod, CC, and Soriano. This team is built from the rubber first which is why they are in first. They were built on offense from 2004-2008 and it got them embarassed and even missing the playoffs once. The money allows them to eat more of their mistakes, but Cashman has been good with the little money moves and has allowed some development of their minor league system. I hate the deal with ARod, but so be it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Having said all of that, I cannot fathom that people don't think this team needs an ace on the staff after watching this year unfold.

 

A Kuroda or a Lohse (who has a 4.44 career ERA and is 34 this year) isn't going to get this team where they need to be. Not even close. If we go into 2013 with the same rotation as right now + Kuroda/Lohse, this will be another 84-86 win team.

 

Hiroki Kuroda has the 8th highest WAR in the bigs for a pitcher. That's insanely good. If he replicated that in Fenway, you guys would be a lot better than you are right now

[Palodios]

Forget about freaking dealing for an ace. Not happening. People seem to be under the delusion that we'll be able to pull Pedro out of the aether any time we want another one.

 

I've said it multiple times, but it bears repeating because I believe it to be a very strong point. The Red Sox will NOT get a true ace this offseason. Is not happening. However, there are a pile of guys that may be acquired for the last year or two of their contracts with Ace Potential. The Red Sox should be scouting right now, scouting hard, and dangling Doubront like candy.

 

I'm explicitly looking at guys like Josh Johnson, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum. Timmy had a terrible first half, but has been back to his old self in the second half. Chris Carpenter, Garza, Johan Santana have some major injury concerns but are definitely worth taking a look. Once again, they need to do some serious scouting on those guys, and figure out where it makes sense to overpay for one year, and extend them either immediately or mid-season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hiroki Kuroda has the 8th highest WAR in the bigs for a pitcher. That's insanely good. If he replicated that in Fenway, you guys would be a lot better than you are right now

 

Kuroda doesn't have the stuff to lead a staff. he's a very good complimentary piece. He's not a leader. Not an ace. The Red Sox need an ace.

 

Kuroda wouldn't be slotted above Lester or Buchholz going into next season.