Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Dojji]

It is never about doing nothing when your business is deficient in a critical area. You may not be able to fix the problem right away, but doing nothing is not progress. You really have never had a responsible position, have you?

 

It depends on how deficient you are, and how much of a show-stopper it is that you are deficient.

 

As with all things, there are two questions to ask when mulling over a solution to any deficiency:

 

1: What CAN you do? What are the sum of your actual options?

 

2: What will what you can do COST? Combine asset costs with opportunity costs.

 

In any analysis, "nothing" is something you can do. In any analysis, the cost of doing "nothing" is quantifiable. It should be weighed next to the cost of other possible courses of action, and if you come to the conclusion that "nothing" is the most cost-effective thing to be doing, then as a business you should be doing nothing.

 

These are very fundamental business concepts that I'm embarrassed for you that you aren't seeming to grasp in this environment

 

That said, the Red Sox are not doing nothing. What they are doing, is letting some prior investments mature, and staying flexible in the meantime. They're gambling on the youth program to replace some of the core players they've lost over the last few years -- especially Youkilis who was a HUGE loss for the team.

 

Without Youk, and with Beckett gone, no longterm options in RF or SS, and a catching situation in disarray, we don't have a core that's going to take us to the top no matter how we supplement it. Until that changes, assuming you can wave the Magic Wand Of Do Something, and make a 100 win team appear (you'd like to claim you're not doing this, but your attitude gives the lie to your words), is just delusional. There are too many fundamental problems with this team to call it anything else.

[a700hitter]

It depends on how deficient you are, and how much of a show-stopper it is that you are deficient.

 

As with all things, there are two questions to ask when mulling over a solution to any deficiency:

 

1: What CAN you do? What are the sum of your actual options?

 

2: What will what you can do COST? Combine asset costs with opportunity costs.

 

In any analysis, "nothing" is something you can do. In any analysis, the cost of doing "nothing" is quantifiable. It should be weighed next to the cost of other possible courses of action, and if you come to the conclusion that "nothing" is the most cost-effective thing to be doing, then as a business you should be doing nothing.

 

These are very fundamental business concepts that I'm embarrassed for you that you aren't seeming to grasp in this environment

 

That said, the Red Sox are not doing nothing. What they are doing, is letting some prior investments mature, and staying flexible in the meantime. They're gambling on the youth program to replace some of the core players they've lost over the last few years -- especially Youkilis who was a HUGE loss for the team.

 

Without Youk, and with Beckett gone, no longterm options in RF or SS, and a catching situation in disarray, we don't have a core that's going to take us to the top no matter how we supplement it. Until that changes, assuming you can wave the Magic Wand Of Do Something, and make a 100 win team appear (you'd like to claim you're not doing this, but your attitude gives the lie to your words), is just delusional. There are too many fundamental problems with this team to call it anything else.

You omitted the possibility that they are just not doing a good job. I am embarrassed for you that you don't recognize that as a possibility.

[Spitball]

I know certain posters will jump on this suggestion, but Javier Vazquez is talking about coming back. I know he sucked in New York, but the guys WAR is top 5 among pitchers in the 2000s. I'd give him a chance (but figure he will sign with the Marlins). Still, some pitchers do not do well in New York, but Vazquez was a definite number two or three guy for his career.

[Dojji]

Building the rotation from within is exactly what they intends to do. Whether we like it or not is inconsequential since it's the right thing to do. Every team in the league who's been moderately successful the past couple of years has done exactly that. You have said several times how good of a GM Friedman is. Well, that's his model for building a winner.

 

Pretty much. I mean which way would you rather do something, the quick way or the right way?

[Dojji]

You omitted the possibility that they are just not doing a good job. I am embarrassed for you that you don't recognize that as a possibility.

 

What part of my analysis makes any value judgment at all about the job the FO is doing?

 

You made some specific, if broad, statements about what "business does." They were wrong, and I addressed them. I also cited the obvious reasoning behind the FO's actions, and tied them to the general points of business philsophy that I raised, which again were correct where yours were wrong. At no point did I make any obvious value judgment about whether the FO was executing those philosophies correctly. You know that I've had my own disagreements about the actions of the front office

 

The fact is that there has been a philosophical switch in the FO and you're still floundering around in yesterday's paradigm. The fact that you have not caught up with the class doesn't mean that the class is wrong. It just means that you haven't caught up.

[a700hitter]

I know certain posters will jump on this suggestion, but Javier Vazquez is talking about coming back. I know he sucked in New York, but the guys WAR is top 5 among pitchers in the 2000s. I'd give him a chance (but figure he will sign with the Marlins). Still, some pitchers do not do well in New York, but Vazquez was a definite number two or three guy for his career.

He's always taken the ball for 30+ starts each year. He has not fared that well in the AL in 5 seasons. He could be worth looking into.

[Dojji]

I know certain posters will jump on this suggestion, but Javier Vazquez is talking about coming back. I know he sucked in New York, but the guys WAR is top 5 among pitchers in the 2000s. I'd give him a chance (but figure he will sign with the Marlins). Still, some pitchers do not do well in New York, but Vazquez was a definite number two or three guy for his career.

 

I feel that Javier Vazquez is a poor bet to outperform any of the 5 current rotation options at this stage of his career. If you can invite him to ST and give him a chance to prove me wrong, fine, but he should be guaranteed nothing. Maybe when we know what we're going to see out of Lackey, the picture changes, but I honestly think the franchise is hoping that by the time they absolutely have to leave Lackey by the roadside, de la Rosa will make himself an option.

[Dojji]

You sound like we've just come off a good run of success and must plan carefully for the future when in fact we've come off four years of failure and underachieving and five years in which we have won NOTHING!!!!!!

 

Wait, so teams only rebuild when they're winning? :dunno:

 

The front office started flailing around blindly to maintain their place at the top and try to go over the top starting at the deadline in 2008 with the Victor Martinez trade. Every move between then and the Big Dump this year has been a failed attempt to extend the life of the old core. So what you're telling me is the fact that big trades and signings have failed to breathe new life into a dead team, is a perfect sign that we need more big trades and signings? :dunno:

 

Why wasn't things being done when we were on top to keep us there?

 

You tell me. How happy would you have been if we hadn't traded for all the sexy big names when we had a legitimate chance chance to win the World Series as recently as 2 years ago?

 

The fact that something failed does not automatically mean it should never have been tried. This is the distinction that both you and a700 consistently fail to parse.

 

Instead rot was allowed to eat into the very core of the team.

 

That rot started happening during the 2007 season. Specifically the spectacular demise of Daisuke Matsuzaka around the latter 2 months of 2007, the loss of Schilling that there was nothing we could do about (an addendum to this is the absolute failure of Buccholz to be as effective as a 40 year old whose shoulder was held together with duct tape), and the ultimately shortsighted re-signing of Mike Lowell. We're lucky we got the ring when we did.

 

Some of us are tired of this failure and demanding action to get us back on top.

 

Which is funny, because "this failure" came as a direct result of repeated efforts to get us back on top. We're already over the cliff and spreadeagled on the canyon below, and you demand we keep running forward in a straight line.

 

This planning for the future is neither a panacea or guarantee that we will get there

.

 

If you want guarantees, buy gold. Don't watch baseball. Baseball is not for the faint of heart, the weak of knee, and the fan who wants an easy life of guarantees.

 

You win with solid players with experience and adding a good young player or two each year. You don't by planning on getting them all together at one time and flood them into the lineup. We won the former way in 2007. We have forgotten how to do that---the FO, that is.

 

The amusing thing to me is that what you're suggesting the FO actually do, seems to be more or less what they're setting themselves up for. If they were doing what you seem to be railing against, we probably wouldn't have signed Dempster and Drew and tried to sign Napoli -- all of which were clearly signed to allow us to ease prospects in gradually around a core of experienced veterans.

[a700hitter]

What part of my analysis makes any value judgment at all about the job the FO is doing?

 

You made some specific, if broad, statements about what "business does." They were wrong, and I addressed them. I also cited the obvious reasoning behind the FO's actions, and tied them to the general points of business philsophy that I raised, which again were correct where yours were wrong. At no point did I make any obvious value judgment about whether the FO was executing those philosophies correctly. You know that I've had my own disagreements about the actions of the front office

 

The fact is that there has been a philosophical switch in the FO and you're still floundering around in yesterday's paradigm. The fact that you have not caught up with the class doesn't mean that the class is wrong. It just means that you haven't caught up.

You most certainly made an assumption in your prior post that the FO is consciously pursuing a certain path. See your statement below. Also, see your unequivocal statement of your knowledge of the reasons for FO actions in the bold language above. You termed the reasons for their actions as "obvious".

 

That said, the Red Sox are not doing nothing. What they are doing, is letting some prior investments mature, and staying flexible in the meantime. They're gambling on the youth program to replace some of the core players they've lost over the last few years -- especially Youkilis who was a HUGE loss for the team.

I disagree with this assumption which doesn't allow for the possibility that they are just doing a lousy job making it difficult to discern any particular strategy. You should take better note of what you say in your posts.

 

Btw, what old paradigm are you assuming that I am stuck in? Have you been following the discussion at all. I have questioned what direction the FO is taking this off season. Getting Dempster is a poor attempt at improving for the present IMO, and they haven't made any moves to bring in pitching prospects, so I can't be sure that they are building for the future or trying to compete now. Their lack of moves makes it hard for me to conclude that they are doing either. Somehow you can read the collective mind of the FO and based on their lack of moves you have been able to divine their exact strategy regarding pitching. You must be psychic. I don't have any such certainty, but I do leave open the possibility that they are just doing a poor job. Since you can vouch for the fact that they are meticulously carrying out their long range plan, I must be mistaken.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure why people still defending this FO. It is horrendous. As the team is currently assembled, IMO we're a 4th place team in the ALE with the same 2012 payroll, unbelievable!. Lamentable execution by our FO thus far. Hopefully I eat my words.

 

BTW, do not worry, we will be competitive in 2018 or so hahahaha ********!

 

Of all the dumb posts you've made, this is definitely up there.

 

I keep reading these posts and still fail to see all these mythical posters defending the FO. Everyone on here has criticized the FO at least once.

 

And 2018? NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Most people have said something to the effect of mediocre in 2013, competetive in 2014, and on track for playoff runs for 2015 and beyond. The fact is, the majority of baseball fans would give their left nut (or boob) to have the success this team had over the past 10 years. One season below .500? Oh boo f***ing hoo. This team isn't going to win the WS every year.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Of all the dumb posts you've made, this is definitely up there.

 

I keep reading these posts and still fail to see all these mythical posters defending the FO. Everyone on here has criticized the FO at least once.

 

And 2018? NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Most people have said something to the effect of mediocre in 2013, competetive in 2014, and on track for playoff runs for 2015 and beyond. The fact is, the majority of baseball fans would give their left nut (or boob) to have the success this team had over the past 10 years. One season below .500? Oh boo f***ing hoo. This team isn't going to win the WS every year.

 

Red Sox fans should know it's never easy. They had a rough past and weren't always successful.I think winning the world series in 04 set a lot of Red Sox fans expectations very high. We did it again in 07 and now they want one every year. I want the team to do good but I don't expect a WS title every year, some people just want too much.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

That was a general statement, not directed to anyone in particular, although it applies to some on the site.

[mvp 78]

That was a general statement, not directed to anyone in particular, although it applies to some on the site.

 

^ Obviously talking about the angriest poster on here: VA.

[Voice of Reason]

I've been going back and forth with User the past couple of weeks but earlier he hit a home run when he said we most likely blew it when we didn't get Dan Haren. I said this before he became a free agent because everyone I talked to connected in any way with the Angels insisted they were not ging to pick up his option. He showed me plenty the last part of the season when he seemed to finally be free of arm and elbow troubles. I think we should have either traded for him or leaped at him the moment he became a free agent.

 

And for the record, I still insist we should make a concerted effort to get Shawn Marcum. Now he's no No. 1 ace but I think he could be a solid No. 3, and keep in mind he has extensive exerience competing in the AL East. There still is time to grab him if we have the will.

 

Haren vs. Dempster is a matter of preference. If that's the biggest gripe you have about how the front office handled the starting rotation then I guess they didn't do that bad a job. Their rotation is bad, we all know that. But going out and signing Greinke or Sanchez or trading most of our farm system for someone would be like throwing water on a grease fire.

[Voice of Reason]

You omitted the possibility that they are just not doing a good job. I am embarrassed for you that you don't recognize that as a possibility.

 

I'm embarassed for you because all you do is bitch and moan but you can't come up with a single idea of what the front office should have done differently. Are you having your monthly visit?

[a700hitter]

I'm embarassed for you because all you do is bitch and moan but you can't come up with a single idea of what the front office should have done differently. Are you having your monthly visit?

Straight to ignore. Buh By.

[yeszir]

Straight to ignore. Buh By.

 

I banned him before you could ignore him anyway. He's been around these parts before

[a700hitter]

I banned him before you could ignore him anyway. He's been around these parts before

A few of us thought so. Emmz can pick these banned guys out from their first post.

[BSN07]

A few of us thought so. Emmz can pick these banned guys out from their first post.

 

She's the "Behavioral Analyst" of talksox

[Bellhorn04]

A few of us thought so. Emmz can pick these banned guys out from their first post.

 

That really is a talent.

[BSN07]

Laroche signed with the Nats. Most likely means Morse is available. His price won't be absurd as he's only got a year left. Nats are said to be looking for BP arms, something the Sox have a lot of. They want at least 1 LHP. So that's Miller or Morales. Morales and a small piece might work. Miller will likely need a higher prospect to go along with him. But the money saved from passing on Napoli can be used to bring in another SP and RP for depth.

 

I know UN, he's not a Pitcher. But he's not going to cost a lot of pieces to be had.

[BSN07]

In the wake of re-signing Adam LaRoche, the Nationals are speaking to 5-6 teams about a trade involving Mike Morse according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The 30-year-old right-handed hitter will earn $7MM in 2013 before qualifying for free agency after the season. He's hit .296/.345/.516 over the last three years. Here's the latest on Morse...

 

The Nationals are seeking a left-handed reliever and/or prospects in any Morse swap, reports ESPN's Jim Bowden (Twitter links). Amanda Comak of The Washington Times hears the asking price was high at the Winter Meetings.

The Nationals believe the Rays would make a great trade partner for Morse.

 

I'd offer Miller(Morales)+ SP prospect like Workman or Ranaudo or a young OF like Nava/Jacobs.

 

Morse could be a monster at Fenway.

[RedSoxNC84]

Laroche signed with the Nats. Most likely means Morse is available. His price won't be absurd as he's only got a year left. Nats are said to be looking for BP arms, something the Sox have a lot of. They want at least 1 LHP. So that's Miller or Morales. Morales and a small piece might work. Miller will likely need a higher prospect to go along with him. But the money saved from passing on Napoli can be used to bring in another SP and RP for depth.

 

I know UN, he's not a Pitcher. But he's not going to cost a lot of pieces to be had.

 

Would much rather see this happen than the napoli signing get finalized. Then we'd have money for a starter

[Palodios]

The Nationals are looking for a left handed reliever in exchange for Morse. The Red Sox have three of those. Hmmm.

 

The market for Lohse seems to be pretty pathetic. Lohse/Marcum + Morse could be sweet.

[Bellhorn04]

Wishful thinking on Morse, I'd say. MLBTR says a bunch of other teams are interested in him. He'll be in another uniform by the time Napoli's deal is finalized next month.

[Palodios]

Wishful thinking on Morse, I'd say. MLBTR says a bunch of other teams are interested in him. He'll be in another uniform by the time Napoli's deal is finalized next month.

 

He's a mid-tier first baseman with a mediocre glove, signed for 2013 at 7 million before hitting free agency. A left handed reliever might be the best the Nats will get for him.

[VA Sox Fan]

^ Obviously talking about the angriest poster on here: VA.

 

:lol:

[Bellhorn04]

He's a mid-tier first baseman with a mediocre glove, signed for 2013 at 7 million before hitting free agency. A left handed reliever might be the best the Nats will get for him.

 

MLBTR suggests they'll get more than just a reliever. Pretty good bat, with a 296/345/516 line over the last 3 years.

[BSN07]

MLBTR suggests they'll get more than just a reliever. Pretty good bat, with a 296/345/516 line over the last 3 years.

 

Yes, but he's expendable, only has one year left and did have a wrist issue. Although with all the teams interested it's likely to bump it up beyond a BP arm. I'd be ok with then adding a Ranuado, Workman, or Jacobs.

 

Morales is might be the best LHP available(if he is). Him plus a prospect be a good haul for a contending team.

[mvp 78]

I'd offer Miller(Morales)+ SP prospect like Workman or Ranaudo or a young OF like Nava/Jacobs.

 

Morse could be a monster at Fenway.

 

Nava is 29. He's not young and not a prospect. The Nats wouldn't want him.