Should the sox deal Buchholz

[jacksonianmarch]

I am putting this out here as more of an interesting thing to look at vs an actual outright recommendation. But let's take a close look at the man they call Clay.

 

In 2010, Clay put up a 3.8WAR and a 3.61FIP en route to winning 17 games. But, he threw only 173IP after missing 4-5 starts with a hamstring issue.

 

In 2011, Clay had a 1.1WAR in 82.2IP with a 4.28FIP. He missed 20 starts with a spinal fracture

 

In 2012, Clay has a 1.4WAR and a 4.44FIP in 131.2IP after missing 3 starts with esophagitis.

 

Now, nobody can say that Clay hasnt been awesome since his return from his esophageal issue. But nobody would claim that Clay is an iron man either and you really cannot be certain that Clay wont post similar numbers to this season on the whole. His 2010 was pretty lucky, in that his ERA was 1.71 runs lower than his xFIP. Last yr, his ERA was .75 runs lower than his xFIP and this yr, he is only 0.2 lower. Even with his amazingly bad start and his amazingly good run of late, the low 4ERA pitcher he is on the whole seems to be who he really is. But, if he finishes the yr on this tear and sees his ERA drop into the mid 3's, might they get more value in return for him than they are getting out of his production.

 

I was wrong in an earlier post on Clay's contract. He's signed through 2015 with 2 option yrs. But he gets pricey in 2015 when his contract jumps from 7.7 mil to 12 mil. Then in 2016, his AAV jumps from 6 mil to 13 mil as they would have to pick up his option. So, he wont exactly be a bargain after 2014. But, he would be a steal for 2013 and 2014. The sox could use those extra years and his recent performance to get an actual durable innings eater in a deal.

[mvp 78]

If they move him, it needs to bring back an ace (include others in deal, of course) not just an innings eater.

[jacksonianmarch]

And I think he could be your centerpiece to do it. I wonder if Philadelphia would move Lee for him

[Station 13]

And I think he could be your centerpiece to do it. I wonder if Philadelphia would move Lee for him

 

Lee isn't going to happen. His contract is insane, 25M each for the next 3 year and 12$M buyout option.

 

Clay contract in comparison is a drop in the bucket. His options comes post the Beckett and Lackey era. The Sox has just Buchholz right now under contract after 2014 as far as starting pitching is concern. Barnes and Workman will be making minimum in between. This leave plenty of room to get FA starters.

[kapsis21]

what a joke of a thread..

[a700hitter]

No, he needs to help anchor a new staff.

[wyo-sox]

No no no

[Bellhorn04]

No...we have to hang onto the good ones.

[jung]

No and it is not an interesting topic.

[mvp 78]

And I think he could be your centerpiece to do it. I wonder if Philadelphia would move Lee for him

 

It'd have to be for more than Lee. I'd say yes to Felix or a pitcher like that. Otherwise, I'd pass on moving him.

[kapsis21]

wait a second jacko wants to trade the one guy who is pitching like an ace and his counterpart Hughes is getting banged up ...

no wonder you start these threads..

[NativeBostonian]

Why would you trade away the only good pitcher in your rotation?

[Dojji]

No' date=' he needs to help anchor a new staff.[/quote']

 

This. If there's a savable element in this team, Buchholz is part of it.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys really cannot actually think past my allegiance, now can you. Oh well. The point is, you could potentially deal Buchholz while his value is high for a player who is more durable and more likely to sustain their success. Buchholz is a guy who has performed about where his metrics say he should this yr, while the prior two seasons, he has significantly outperformed them. They eventually catch up. Right now, he is pitching like an ace, but he also has durabilty concerns. You could move him plus some other pieces for a guy who pitches to his metrics and is durable.

[jacksonianmarch]

And the point is, you cannot deal garbage and get gold in return. It seems the sox dont move players when their value is high, they only deal players when their value is at rock bottom. This would be one of those bold moves. I am not saying to move him for prospects. I am saying you can move him for a bona fide ace

[Bellhorn04]

And the point is' date=' you cannot deal garbage and get gold in return. It seems the sox dont move players when their value is high, they only deal players when their value is at rock bottom. This would be one of those bold moves. I am not saying to move him for prospects. [b']I am saying you can move him for a bona fide ace[/b]

 

And who are we supposed to partner up with on this?

[NativeBostonian]

And the point is' date=' you cannot deal garbage and get gold in return. It seems the sox dont move players when their value is high, they only deal players when their value is at rock bottom. This would be one of those bold moves. I am not saying to move him for prospects. I am saying you can move him for a bona fide ace[/quote']

If it is for King Felix than I would do that in a heartbeat.

[Emmz]

This thread is nothing more than Jacko showing us once again what a biased Yankee fan deeb he can be. It has nothing to do with your allegiance, it's your inability to formulate anything constructive, and your passive-aggressive attempts to tell us all that Buchholz is destined to fade, as well as to plant the seed of a future "I told ya so". This is the s*** that got you your own neat little chart.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And I think he could be your centerpiece to do it. I wonder if Philadelphia would move Lee for him

 

The Sox didn't trade Buch for Lee straight up back when Buchholz wasn't proven and Lee was in his prime, and was on a team friendly deal.

 

No chance this happens.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Besides, Buchholz has the stuff to be a bona fide ace. He's been averaging nearly 8 innings per start since returning from his throat problems.

 

And he would be an ace at a much cheaper cost than the others.

 

Look. Since Buchholz has been back, he's thrown to a 1.79 ERA. And since he's been back, the Red Sox are 3 games under .500. What more can you expect to get from a bona fide ace than what Buchholz has given this team? Nothing. So the problem isn't that the Sox don't have an ace. It's that the Sox 2-5 pitchers (specifically 2-3) have sucked. So why trade for what would ultimately be a wash?

[jacksonianmarch]

I've told you why. You sell high on a guy who will not continue to pitch at this insane level and also has durability issues.

[Emmz]

Yeah, he's totally shown to have durability issues. He already has an ace-level full season under his belt, and he can't pitch at this level? Yeah, no one really pitches to a 1.8 ERA and averages 8 innings now, but he can still go on these runs. Absolutely ridiculous, biased bs.

[3rdManOut]

I find it interesting though that we would be talking about dealing the only pitcher that has done well for us this season. Dont get me wrong his numbers were not the greatest. Ive said this before and I will say it again, what team would even want to touch any pitcher that we have (even if it was Buchholz)?

[jung]

Buch is worth more to the Sox keeping him than trading him away and he IS a pitcher. It is pitching that is the problem...we all acknowledge that.

 

What Buch is not is a 1. Making Buch the 1 here would be even more foolish than anointing Lester was or thinking that Beckett could continue to be.

[3rdManOut]

@Jung

I agree with you. We have no choice but to keep Buchholz in any hope to stay (somewhat) relevent in the wild card. In addition I dont see him as a "cancer" to the club house at all. We should be talking about players that give off a bad vibe and/or don't give a s***.