David Ortiz -HOF?

[BigPapi]

Ortiz and Martinez have similar averages, but Ortiz's counting numbers are vastly better. And I have to disagree that Martinez was a 'much better player'.

 

I agree. Even at the height of the steroid era he only hit over 30 hrs once in his career. Papi has better career slugging. The only thing edgar could do better is hit for a higher average.

[jd98]

And him being a pure DH. There are few comps out there, and the one (Edgar Martinez, a much better player) has not had much luck so far.

 

Edgar Martinez isn't a much better player. I'm assuming you're basing that mostly on WAR. I look at WAR no different than college football computer rankings. It's just somebody's best guess using a formula they made up.

 

They are very similar. Martinez was a better hitter, walked a little more, struck out a little less. Ortiz has more HR and RBI. OPS is about the same, as is everything else. The main thing is Ortiz isn't finished. He's not a hall-of-famer now, but if he has 1 or 2 more good years, then that's the question.

[redsoxrules]

And him being a pure DH. There are few comps out there, and the one (Edgar Martinez, a much better player) has not had much luck so far.

 

A much better player? Please explain.

Their carreer OPS are close to identical. And as Bellhorn mentioned, Ortiz has better numbers

when it comes to HR and RBI's. That counts alot for the Hall.

I'm certain that Edgar will make it there someday, especiall since Frank Thomas just got in.

[sk7326]

until yesterday

 

Level of production matters ... Thomas was a 1B for first few years. Also he had a 5 year stretch where he was far and away the best hitter in the league. 72.4 fWAR/2322 PAs, career slash .301/.419/.555, wOBA .416, and a best 5 year total of 34.8 fWAR.

 

Martinez' counting numbers are less, but of course RBI is a function of lineup quality. He spent his last five years in a terrible hitter's park too. Let's put it this way - you need to be talking Miguel Cabrera 2012-2013 level production to justify DH value (which is what Thomas was doing, and Edgar's best years were in the neighborhood). Ortiz, while excellent has never touched that level.

[sk7326]

A much better player? Please explain.

Their carreer OPS are close to identical. And as Bellhorn mentioned, Ortiz has better numbers

when it comes to HR and RBI's. That counts alot for the Hall.

I'm certain that Edgar will make it there someday, especiall since Frank Thomas just got in.

 

Last 5 years of his career were in a hitter's graveyard - I discount RBIs since they are a function of team. Now, if you want to evaluate if his case looks better than Edgar's due to HRs and RBIs, I'd be with you. But he did not get on base as often, his peak seasons were not as dominating and his ballpark circumstances were at least as favorable. Career OPS are close - but we know OPS wildly understates the O which is much more important than the slugging part. The .418 vs .379 OBP is a huge difference. Edgar was just a better hitter by a solid margin. Frank Thomas was even better than that - though his production was more peaky.

[Bellhorn04]

Last 5 years of his career were in a hitter's graveyard - I discount RBIs since they are a function of team. Now, if you want to evaluate if his case looks better than Edgar's due to HRs and RBIs, I'd be with you. But he did not get on base as often, his peak seasons were not as dominating and his ballpark circumstances were at least as favorable. Career OPS are close - but we know OPS wildly understates the O which is much more important than the slugging part. The .418 vs .379 OBP is a huge difference. Edgar was just a better hitter by a solid margin. Frank Thomas was even better than that - though his production was more peaky.

 

Ahh, fiddlesticks! I knew you were going to crush us with the Edgar numbers.

 

The more I look at it, the more of an injustice it seems that Edgar isn't in the HOF.

 

Are there PED suspicions with Edgar?

[jd98]

- but we know OPS wildly understates the O which is much more important than the slugging part.

 

I'd disagree with both parts of that statement. OPS is half OBP and half SLG. SLG is almost always higher than OBP, so maybe you could say OPS slightly favors SLG, but 'wildly understates the O' is a huge exaggeration.

 

OBP and SLG are both important. I'd even lean toward SLG being more important, and certainly not OBP 'much more important'. Looking at team stats for this year, the top 10 teams in runs scored are also the top 10 teams in SLG (not in the same order). The top 6 teams in scoring are in the top 10 in OBP, but then it starts to vary wildly. Pittsburgh is 1st in OBP, 11th in runs. I don't know if that proves anything, we'll probably have to agree to disagree.

[sk7326]

I'd disagree with both parts of that statement. OPS is half OBP and half SLG. SLG is almost always higher than OBP, so maybe you could say OPS slightly favors SLG, but 'wildly understates the O' is a huge exaggeration.

 

OBP and SLG are both important. I'd even lean toward SLG being more important, and certainly not OBP 'much more important'. Looking at team stats for this year, the top 10 teams in runs scored are also the top 10 teams in SLG (not in the same order). The top 6 teams in scoring are in the top 10 in OBP, but then it starts to vary wildly. Pittsburgh is 1st in OBP, 11th in runs. I don't know if that proves anything, we'll probably have to agree to disagree.

 

You certainly can't win without a level of pop. But make it simple. A team with a 1.000 SLG pct in an inning could have just scored 1 run. (a solo homerun and 3 outs). An OBP of 1.000 is a team that would never be retired. The name of the game is to score, and not making outs is the most central tenet of scoring a lot of runs. If you are not making outs, you're getting on base. I think I have read statistical measures indicating OBP is 40% more important than slugging (that 1.4 x OBP + SLG is a bit more truthful). There is noise in the team stats, but there is noise in all stats. The top 2 OBP teams in the AL last year were the top 2 OBPs by a long long way. Baserunners are the building blocks of offense.

[sk7326]

Ahh, fiddlesticks! I knew you were going to crush us with the Edgar numbers.

 

The more I look at it, the more of an injustice it seems that Edgar isn't in the HOF.

 

Are there PED suspicions with Edgar?

 

None that I know of. I think it is really more a case of being a pure DH plus the relative unsexiness of his production ... both doing it in Seattle, and being really good for a very long time in a non "capturing the imagination" sort of way.

[jd98]

You certainly can't win without a level of pop. But make it simple. A team with a 1.000 SLG pct in an inning could have just scored 1 run. (a solo homerun and 3 outs). An OBP of 1.000 is a team that would never be retired. The name of the game is to score, and not making outs is the most central tenet of scoring a lot of runs. If you are not making outs, you're getting on base. I think I have read statistical measures indicating OBP is 40% more important than slugging (that 1.4 x OBP + SLG is a bit more truthful). There is noise in the team stats, but there is noise in all stats. The top 2 OBP teams in the AL last year were the top 2 OBPs by a long long way. Baserunners are the building blocks of offense.

 

I assume you meant the top 2 in scoring were the top 2 in OBP by a long way. But they were also the top 2 teams in SLG. Last year the top 9 in SLG were in the top 10 in runs. 10th in SLG was 11th in runs, and StL was 3rd in runs and 12th in SLG.

 

There were 7 top 10 in OBP that were top 10 in scoring. Two just missed (11th, 12th) and one was 17th. The three top 10 scorers not in OBP top 10 were 12, 15, and 19 in OBP.

 

I wouldn't argue with anybody saying OBP is more important than SLG, but I would argue against it being significantly more important, such as the 40%. I just can't see it. It sure doesn't bear out with the team scoring.

[GomesBeard]

Yes, he gets in. Haven't read all of the above - but he has the numbers and was a major part of 3 WS Championships in 10 years. Lives for the big moments. Also very popular with the media - don't discount that - he's the anti-Barry Bonds in that regard.

[SimplyMarie]

Yes, he gets in. Haven't read all of the above - but he has the numbers and was a major part of 3 WS Championships in 10 years. Lives for the big moments. Also very popular with the media - don't discount that - he's the anti-Barry Bonds in that regard.

 

He's very popular with the Boston media..and the ESPN guys. Rest of baseball media..? Not so much.

 

I could not predict whether he makes it in or not. The PED cloud hanging over his head will be a factor. He won't get in first round for sure, but second round...maybe.

[Thunder]

He's very popular with the Boston media..and the ESPN guys. Rest of baseball media..? Not so much.

 

I could not predict whether he makes it in or not. The PED cloud hanging over his head will be a factor. He won't get in first round for sure, but second round...maybe.

 

What PED cloud? Any of those rumors died off ages ago. He won't get in his first round, but not because of PED's.

[Behindenemylines]

Papi is top five most clutch playoff hitters of all time. The Sox have three championships in the last ten years and he is the only member to be on all three. His in season stats when all is said and done will be comparable to other HOFs. Might not be first ballot, but yes he will get in.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is absolutely no way he gets in. DH's don't get in and steroid cheats don't get in. He's both

[jacksonianmarch]

What PED cloud? Any of those rumors died off ages ago. He won't get in his first round, but not because of PED's.

 

PED cloud? He failed a f***ing test, that's more than a cloud.

[SoxFanForsyth]

PED cloud? He failed a f***ing test, that's more than a cloud.

 

He failed a test for taking a substance that wasn't even banned at the time. And we don't even know what the substance was.

[example1]

I think Ortiz is going to be on the border of getting in for awhile after he retires. Unless there's another credible PED link I wouldn't be surprised if he got in.

 

Ortiz has reached baseball icon status. If his numbers weren't really good then obviously that wouldn't be enough to get him in, but over an 11 year period he's batted 3, 4 or 5 on a team that won 3 World Series. He's had 30 HR/100+ RBI on average over those 11 years, with a .952 OPS.

 

I don't think those are necessarily HOF numbers but when combined with being a face of one of the most popular franchises and his absolutely legendary playoff feats across two decades I think he ultimately gets in.

[GomesBeard]

And he's not a dick with the media, either. That will help.

[BigPapi]

In my opinion , he should be but he will be on the border. As a red sock, he has averaged a .290 batting average with 34 hrs ( assuming he can hit at least 5 more this year), 107 rbis, and 136 games played a season. He has had 4 seasons with an ops over 1000 (if you include the incomplete 2012). His best ever for hrs was 54, for rbis 148, and average for a season was .332. He also had arguably the best world series performance of all time and has become a postseason legend. While I don't know if he will get in, all I know is that his number absolutely should be retired and he should have his own statue at fenway

 

Since 2003, he has pretty much been up there with the best hitters in the regular season from a statistical standpoint. The average is a little low, but production wise he has been right up there with pujols, arod, and cabrera.

Edited August 21, 2014 by BigPapi

[Spudboy]

In my opinion , he should be but he will be on the border. As a red sock, he has averaged a .290 batting average with 34 hrs ( assuming he can hit at least 5 more this year), 107 rbis, and 136 games played a season. He has had 4 seasons with an ops over 1000 (if you include the incomplete 2012). His best ever for hrs was 54, for rbis 148, and average for a season was .332. He also had arguably the best world series performance of all time and has become a postseason legend. While I don't know if he will get in, all I know is that his number absolutely should be retired and he should have his own statue at fenway

 

Since 2003, he has pretty much been up there with the best hitters in the regular season from a statistical standpoint. The average is a little low, but production wise he has been right up there with pujols, arod, and cabrera.

 

The 2003 test aside, this is his biggest challenge. He was a DH in an average of 136 games a season. Many people don't recognize this as actually playing.

[seabeachfred]

In my opinion , he should be but he will be on the border. As a red sock, he has averaged a .290 batting average with 34 hrs ( assuming he can hit at least 5 more this year), 107 rbis, and 136 games played a season. He has had 4 seasons with an ops over 1000 (if you include the incomplete 2012). His best ever for hrs was 54, for rbis 148, and average for a season was .332. He also had arguably the best world series performance of all time and has become a postseason legend. While I don't know if he will get in, all I know is that his number absolutely should be retired and he should have his own statue at fenway

 

Since 2003, he has pretty much been up there with the best hitters in the regular season from a statistical standpoint. The average is a little low, but production wise he has been right up there with pujols, arod, and cabrera.

 

Notice Papi that the friggin' moron who passes for our manager sat Ortiz tonight. So typical of that baboon---he benches hot hitters, few as they have been and lets the choker cruds like Bogaerts keep playing and keep failing.

[Spudboy]

Farrell said that Ortiz had a scheduled day off. He said he was doing this with all of the regulars because of playing a stretch of 17 games in a row.

 

Of course if I was 8 for 10 or whatever Ortiz had been in the series, I would have lobbied to be in the lineup. I doubt that happened.

[GomesBeard]

But I thought as a DH, he wasn't a player? ;-)

 

For sure, the Sox will have to break their own criteria to put him in the RS HOF if he weren't to get into Cooperstown. But I think he will get in. Both.

[Spudboy]

But I thought as a DH, he wasn't a player? ;-)

 

For sure, the Sox will have to break their own criteria to put him in the RS HOF if he weren't to get into Cooperstown. But I think he will get in. Both.

 

Just be clear, I said that some do not consider him to be a player as in playing the full game, defense blah blah blah. That is not my opinion. I know that he can play decent defense at 1st base at least short term. But some people think that he would not have put up the big numbers had he been required to play the field everyday. Again, not my opinion.

[GomesBeard]

Just be clear, I said that some do not consider him to be a player as in playing the full game, defense blah blah blah. That is not my opinion. I know that he can play decent defense at 1st base at least short term. But some people think that he would not have put up the big numbers had he been required to play the field everyday. Again, not my opinion.

 

Yeah, I wasn't really referring to anyone here, just a general comment on a perception that we've all heard. Seems dumb to eliminate a guy from consideration for the HOF who has had a major impact on 3 World Championship teams just because he doesn't play the field 90% of the time. Some thing that Edgardo Alfonzo has to be the first DH to get in, but I'd argue that Papi has certainly had a bigger impact on his teams and the position than Alfonzo did, although he is generally recognized as the first 'real' DH.

 

The NFL finally broke the kicker barrier, so maybe it will be time for the Hall to do the same in 2020 or so....

[Spudboy]

I don't see how Ortiz's 8 and likely 9 years of 30+ HR and all those RBI can be ignored. Even if he did not field a position for the majority of his career.

 

Then there is the obvious stuff like the 3 WS titles that he contributed and his WS MVP.

 

But what really gets me is how much he has done for the game. Not just the Red Sox, but the entirety of baseball.

 

He is one of the games brightest stars and most recognized players. There is no award for those types of things so I think combined with all of his offensive production he SHOULD be a lock.

 

I may bitch about his griping about strike calls and his salary and stuff. However, I recognize the scope and magnitude of his contribution to the game.

 

He has my vote ( and not because he plays for my favorite team, either ).

[YAZMAN]

Boston is his fookin' city, and someday Cooperstown will be too.

[jacksonianmarch]

There have been no players linked to steroids who have gotten into the HOF. Some of the best players of all time have been left out. Heck, guys who aren't even linked, but some people think may have used aren't in (Bagwell). Also, no primary DH's are in the HOF. Guys like Baines and Edgar Martinez belong in the HOF based on offensive contributions. He has to clear two hurdles that, to this point, haven't been cleared

[Bellhorn04]

There have been no players linked to steroids who have gotten into the HOF. Some of the best players of all time have been left out. Heck, guys who aren't even linked, but some people think may have used aren't in (Bagwell). Also, no primary DH's are in the HOF. Guys like Baines and Edgar Martinez belong in the HOF based on offensive contributions. He has to clear two hurdles that, to this point, haven't been cleared

 

Only 43% of Frank Thomas's career PA's came when he was playing first base. I'd say the DH door has been kicked more than halfway open.