The Youkilis Delusion?

[evilhand]

You're on bub!!!!!!! I also think I know who you are and your pollyanna persona and carrying the water for the front office gave you away. What's the matter......STFU getting too dull for you?

 

Not sure who you're referring to or what STFU is, but whatever. I doubt I'll convince you I'm not who you think I am. I certainly wouldn't consider myself a pollyanna, though. I see plenty wrong with this team and can absolutely conceive of a scenario where they don't make the playoffs this year.

 

I'm also a pretty big detractor of Bobby V, can't stand Larry L, am concerned that Henry seems less and less involved in the day to day operations of the team, think that Aceves is a poor option for a closer and is bound to lose the job, hate the Lackey contract and don't think he can every pitch well enough to be worth it, even when he gets healthy... I could go on, but suffice it to say, the Sox aren't perfect.

 

Hell, I just made a post arguing that the Nationals might be a better team right now in yesterday's game thread.

 

Anyway, glad you're accepting. Which wager do you want to go with? $20 to the Jimmy Fund? or a sig bet? I'm good with either, or both if you're feeling rambunctious.

[mvp 78]

You're on bub!!!!!!! I also think I know who you are and your pollyanna persona and carrying the water for the front office gave you away. What's the matter......STFU getting too dull for you?

 

I thought you were going to give up the p-word, sir. I'm disappointed.

[VA Sox Fan]

Not sure who you're referring to or what STFU is, but whatever. I doubt I'll convince you I'm not who you think I am. I certainly wouldn't consider myself a pollyanna, though. I see plenty wrong with this team and can absolutely conceive of a scenario where they don't make the playoffs this year.

 

I'm also a pretty big detractor of Bobby V, can't stand Larry L, am concerned that Henry seems less and less involved in the day to day operations of the team, think that Aceves is a poor option for a closer and is bound to lose the job, hate the Lackey contract and don't think he can every pitch well enough to be worth it, even when he gets healthy... I could go on, but suffice it to say, the Sox aren't perfect.

 

Hell, I just made a post arguing that the Nationals might be a better team right now in yesterday's game thread.

 

Anyway, glad you're accepting. Which wager do you want to go with? $20 to the Jimmy Fund? or a sig bet? I'm good with either, or both if you're feeling rambunctious.

 

It means Shut The f*** Up.

 

You really got fred all riled up! :lol:

 

I enjoy your posts. Fair and balanced IMO.

[evilhand]

I figured he was referring to a specific place he thought he knew me from, lol. Oh well.

[VA Sox Fan]

From Peter Abraham in today's Globe:

 

Once the Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis (and that seems virtually certain according to sources), we'll know what the front office thinks of this team. If they trade for prospects, that means they don't think this bunch can win and given the state of the AL East, maybe they do think that.

 

The interesting part will be to see if the trade gets expanded. The Sox could certainly part with Youkilis alone. But they have spare outfielders, a spare catcher, and assorted extra relievers, too.

 

• To get to 90 wins, the Sox would have to win 61 of their remaining 102 games. That's nearly .600 ball for the better part of four months. That's why they'll get prospects for Youkilis. Plus they'll save some money.

 

It certainly sounds like Youk will be gone by the Trade Deadline. Not sure why everyone wants him gone right away. It seems they'd get more for him at the TD.

[mvp 78]

I'm having Deja Vu to when UN? showed up and people thought he was someone else. Apparently, if a new poster shows up, they're just an older poster with a new name?

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm having Deja Vu to when UN? showed up and people thought he was someone else. Apparently' date=' if a new poster shows up, they're just an older poster with a new name?[/quote']

 

It happens all the time. Especially if people think they are a troll or trolling them specifically. It does happen from time to time though.

[Elktonnick]

From Peter Abraham in today's Globe:

 

Once the Red Sox trade Kevin Youkilis (and that seems virtually certain according to sources), we'll know what the front office thinks of this team. If they trade for prospects, that means they don't think this bunch can win and given the state of the AL East, maybe they do think that.

 

The interesting part will be to see if the trade gets expanded. The Sox could certainly part with Youkilis alone. But they have spare outfielders, a spare catcher, and assorted extra relievers, too.

 

• To get to 90 wins, the Sox would have to win 61 of their remaining 102 games. That's nearly .600 ball for the better part of four months. That's why they'll get prospects for Youkilis. Plus they'll save some money.

 

It certainly sounds like Youk will be gone by the Trade Deadline. Not sure why everyone wants him gone right away. It seems they'd get more for him at the TD.

 

I think it is risky to have A-Gon play RF. Greater chance of a pulled hammy or other injury. The one thing that I think everyone can agree to is this club doesn't need another veteran going down with an injury.

[a700hitter]

Yes... Ben Cherrington who brought in Cody Ross on the cheap, assembled a bullpen that ended up becoming a strength once the pieces were in place, who identified and called up several players who immediately contributed to the major league squad, who traded a streaky outfielder with some pop (who had a .670 OPS for the vast majority of his season last year) for a closer as good as Papelbon AND Ryan Sweeney, who correctly identified Doubront as the 4th best available starter, who correctly identified Kelly Shoppach as a productive half of a catching platoon, and who correctly evaluated Mike Aviles as an above average short stop "usually makes the wrong" decision.

 

The only moves he's made that you can really question are the Lowrie trade and the Punto signing. Even his first draft, now that we've seen how it played out in its entirety and have had a chance to see reactions from analysts and scouts, looks strong.

 

The Cherrington hate is way over the top here.

 

A closer as good as Papelbon? Don't you have to atleast pitch to be better than Papelbon. Bailey hasn't pitched a full season in the last 3 years. Also, he pitched in a ballpark with a football field's worth of foul territory in a low pressure environment. It's a ridiculous statemt.

 

Sweeney? The 6'4" 240 lb guy with 2 HRs in 732 PAs and 14 career HRs. Reddick ha4 14 HRs in a third of a season.

 

He correctly identified Doubront as the 4th best starter? This is no great feat if you are only looking at the Sox organization. Who was his competition? Bard? Padilla?

 

Aviles wasn't such a great call, because we could have had Aviles and Scutaro. The guy performing would have played and the other one would have been a much better utility option than Punto. The choice wasn't between Aviles and Scoots. We had them both. The mistake was Punto.

 

Cherries has done next to nothing and that's how much credit he should get.

[mvp 78]

It happens all the time. Especially if people think they are a troll or trolling them specifically. It does happen from time to time though.

 

Ah, I'm clearly not paying close enough attention.

[FredLynn]

I figured he was referring to a specific place he thought he knew me from' date=' lol. Oh well.[/quote']

 

STFU is a splinter board from Sawxheads. At the end of last year the moderator over there formed a new board and took with him a group of posters who are largely optimists in their viewpoints. I am not sure who Fred thinks you remind him of over there. I know most of them pretty well and you are none of them IMO.

[VA Sox Fan]

I think it is risky to have A-Gon play RF. Greater chance of a pulled hammy or other injury. The one thing that I think everyone can agree to is this club doesn't need another veteran going down with an injury.

 

I understand what you mean about A-Gon in right. He has done well overall all. But your injury concern is spot on. Especially the hammy issue. As we all know, he has no speed. I do admire him for doing it though.

 

So I see your point with the urgency of trading Youk sooner than later.

 

Edit: But with Interleague play, it's the only way to keep he and Papi in the line up. We do have 6 more games in NL parks.

[Elktonnick]

I understand what you mean about A-Gon in right. He has done well overall all. But your injury concern is spot on. Especially the hammy issue. As we all know, he has no speed. I do admire him for doing it though.

 

So I see your point with the urgency of trading Youk sooner than later.

 

Edit: But with Interleague play, it's the only way to keep he and Papi in the line up. We do have 6 more games in NL parks.

 

I 'lltolerate 6 games but no more. Although the way A-Gon is struggling at the plate, I am not sure about his health.

[VA Sox Fan]

I 'lltolerate 6 games but no more. Although the way A-Gon is struggling at the plate' date=' I am not sure about his health.[/quote']

 

We have no say in the matter.

 

His struggles at the plate are a mystery. Just hope to the baseball god's it isn't an injury. Maybe he needs to sit Wed and have 2 days off in a row.

[evilhand]

A closer as good as Papelbon? Don't you have to atleast pitch to be better than Papelbon. Bailey hasn't pitched a full season in the last 3 years. Also' date=' he pitched in a ballpark with a football field's worth of foul territory in a low pressure environment. It's a ridiculous statemt.[/quote']

 

Papelbon's ERA+ (which is park and league adjusted) in his last three years in Boston: 252, 112, 145. Bailey: 239, 281, 126. When on the field over the last three years, Bailey has been better. The reason I went with "as good as" is that he played less. Though you are incorrect that he hasn't played a full season in the last three. He played a full season in 2009.

 

At worst, they got a reliever a tick below what they lost.

 

Sweeney? The 6'4" 240 lb guy with 2 HRs in 732 PAs and 14 career HRs. Reddick ha4 14 HRs in a third of a season.

 

Yes... Josh Reddick... the same Josh Reddick who had a 1.102 OPS after 16 games last year and managed just a .628 for the remaining 58? That Josh Reddick? He's streaky and has pop. I guarantee he will finish with far less than 39 home runs (what he's on pace for) and an OPS lower than the .860 he currently has. Plus, Sweeney was not the bulk of the value they got back in the trade. Bailey was. That Sweeney came back on top is a bonus, as he's a really good 4th outfielder.

 

He correctly identified Doubront as the 4th best starter? This is no great feat if you are only looking at the Sox organization. Who was his competition? Bard? Padilla?

 

Bard, Padilla, Cook, Ohlendorf, Aceves and Miller were all suggested in the off season. Doubront got the nod and has been great in that role. This is a clear win for Cherrington.

 

Aviles wasn't such a great call' date=' because we could have had Aviles and Scutaro. The guy performing would have played and the other one would have been a much better utility option than Punto. The choice wasn't between Aviles and Scoots. We had them both. The mistake was Punto.[/quote']

 

You're lamenting the loss of Scutaro (and his 6 million) over a .684 OPS? Aviles is right in the middle of the pack offensively and has been about average defensively. Many people questioned whether he could be an every day player. Ben thought he could, he was right. Another call he got right. Punto sucks, and I wish he wasn't here, but I mentioned that in the post above already. It's definitely a mistake on Cherrington's part. That doesn't undo the correct evaluation of Aviles, though.

 

Cherries has done next to nothing and that's how much credit he should get.

 

Your arguments fall a bit flat of proving this. Dismissing his wins because you don't like him doesn't count for much IMO.

[a700hitter]

Papelbon's ERA+ (which is park and league adjusted) in his last three years in Boston: 252, 112, 145. Bailey: 239, 281, 126. When on the field over the last three years, Bailey has been better. The reason I went with "as good as" is that he played less. Though you are incorrect that he hasn't played a full season in the last three. He played a full season in 2009.

 

At worst, they got a reliever a tick below what they lost.

Papelbon pitched a full season every season. He was very reliable, and often outstanding. While saves is not the best way to evaluate a pitcher, Papelbon did reach 200 career saves faster than any pitcher in history. He'd been through the pressure cooker of Boston and triumphed. Before we crown Bailey to be as good as or a tick below, let him prove it on the field. As of now, he hasn't thrown a single pitch for the Sox.

 

Yes... Josh Reddick... the same Josh Reddick who had a 1.102 OPS after 16 games last year and managed just a .628 for the remaining 58? That Josh Reddick? He's streaky and has pop. I guarantee he will finish with far less than 39 home runs (what he's on pace for) and an OPS lower than the .860 he currently has. Plus' date=' Sweeney was not the bulk of the value they got back in the trade. Bailey was. That Sweeney came back on top is a bonus, as he's a really good 4th outfielder.[/quote']The A's got a cost controlled OFer with more HRs than anyone on the Red Sox not named Ortiz for a closer making $4 million to rehab. That's the record as of today. Will it turn out different? Yes, it might, but let it run it's course before throwing this one on Cherry's side of the ledger, especially at a time where the results are one-sided in the opposite direction.

 

 

Bard' date=' Padilla, Cook, Ohlendorf, Aceves and Miller were all suggested in the off season. Doubront got the nod and has been great in that role. This is a clear win for Cherrington.[/quote']Clear win for Cherries? He didn't annoint Doubront as the #4 before Spring Training. The kid won the job. It was more like throwing a bunch of s*** (made up of retreads and misfits) at the wall and hoping something would stick. Picking Doubront from this Motley group didn't take a lot of foresight. Clear win? What the hell did Cherries win? Our pitching sucks.

 

You're lamenting the loss of Scutaro (and his 6 million) over a .684 OPS? Aviles is right in the middle of the pack offensively and has been about average defensively. Many people questioned whether he could be an every day player. Ben thought he could' date=' he was right. Another call he got right. Punto sucks, and I wish he wasn't here, but I mentioned that in the post above already. It's definitely a mistake on Cherrington's part. That doesn't undo the correct evaluation of Aviles, though.[/quote']No, I am lamenting that this would be a better team if Scutaro was on the roster instead of Punto. Punto is a complete waste.

 

Your arguments fall a bit flat of proving this. Dismissing his wins because you don't like him doesn't count for much IMO.

Like him? I don't even know him. I don't like or dislike FO guys. I look at their record. This guy has done little to nothing so far in his tenure. You haven't proved otherwise. Even if I conceded all of your points, which I do not, he still has a completely undistinguished record.

[tackle-bag]

The premise of the OP is horseshit. Batting average is nearly useless for evaluating the value of a hitter. As are RBIs. Fact is, Youk has put up the following OBP/SLG since the start of 2008.

 

2008: .390/.569

2009: .413/.538

2010: .411/.564

2011: .373/.459

 

[...]

 

If you want to argue that he's unable to stay healthy and thus isn't worth holding onto while Middlebrooks is here if they can get a good return for him, fine. That's a reasonable argument. But suggesting he's "the most overrated player" on the team is ridiculous.

 

Don't think there's any need to be so dismissive. My original post made clear that I just wanted to start a discussion and it's apparent that a good few people agree with my point of view.

 

If you want to deal in OBP and slugging, Youkilis is 11th (with .314) and 12th (with .372) respectively in those stats. Middlebrooks is 7th (with .341) and 5th (with .517). Don't forget that Youk is the 4th highest paid batter playing for the Red Sox. To my mind, he's over-paid, over-rated and the team can do without him.

[Bellhorn04]

What Jackie Mac said in addition to her article was that Youklis was a problem in the clubhouse and that he needed to go. I think her article is pretty damning actually. She doesn't have to use the loaded term cancer but " insisting on inserting himself in other people affairs" is a pretty tough statement considering that these are 25 plus guys who have to work and travel with each over six plus months. Hey if you think it isn't a tough indictment well then I guess you must be easy to work and live with. Kudos to you.

 

You forced me to do my homework on this and now that I have, I find that your statement above is totally inaccurate. I read the whole article, then I listened to her followup interview on the Dennis and Callahan show. She specifically says 'I believe Youkilis is part of the solution' and she also states clearly that she doesn't think the Red Sox should get rid of him. She talks about Youkilis's passion and says 'that's what we love about him'. Maybe you should listen to the interview again.

 

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=jackie%20macmullan%20kevin%20youkilis&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CFQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Faudio.weei.com%2Fa%2F46614208%2Fjackie-macmullan-talks-about-her-kevin-youkilis-story-on-espn.htm&ei=Ap7WT_z0DMjd0QHc0aCKAw&usg=AFQjCNFqpTL_tS2tK1e0zMvOU_hBPAgLIA

[Elktonnick]

You forced me to do my homework on this and now that I have, I find that your statement above is totally inaccurate. I read the whole article, then I listened to her followup interview on the Dennis and Callahan show. She specifically says 'I believe Youkilis is part of the solution' and she also states clearly that she doesn't think the Red Sox should get rid of him. She talks about Youkilis's passion and says 'that's what we love about him'. Maybe you should listen to the interview again.

 

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=jackie%20macmullan%20kevin%20youkilis&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CFQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Faudio.weei.com%2Fa%2F46614208%2Fjackie-macmullan-talks-about-her-kevin-youkilis-story-on-espn.htm&ei=Ap7WT_z0DMjd0QHc0aCKAw&usg=AFQjCNFqpTL_tS2tK1e0zMvOU_hBPAgLIA

 

You are right in that interview she did walk back the part of Youk being traded. I never heard that interview but did hear her elsewhere before she " clarified" the article. But she did say there were issues between Youk and other players whom she refused to name. The implication is that someone should be traded. She did reiterate her statement that he is a detriment. So what are we left with. He is a detriment but shouldn't be traded. Sounds mutually exclusive given the current situation. My post wasn't totally inaccurate. She just walked back the implication that in October Youk should be dumped then. Not that it matters now but I maintained then and maintain now that it was foolish not to move Youk during the offseason.

 

I think though Youk will be moved very soon. I think there are still issues between Youk and his teammates unless those team mates are Paplebon, Scuturo or Lowrie . I think Youk's behavior tonight illustrates some of the issues and why he continues to be a problem. Other can hear the D& C interview and draw their own conclusions

[seabeachfred]

You forced me to do my homework on this and now that I have, I find that your statement above is totally inaccurate. I read the whole article, then I listened to her followup interview on the Dennis and Callahan show. She specifically says 'I believe Youkilis is part of the solution' and she also states clearly that she doesn't think the Red Sox should get rid of him. She talks about Youkilis's passion and says 'that's what we love about him'. Maybe you should listen to the interview again.

 

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=jackie%20macmullan%20kevin%20youkilis&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CFQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Faudio.weei.com%2Fa%2F46614208%2Fjackie-macmullan-talks-about-her-kevin-youkilis-story-on-espn.htm&ei=Ap7WT_z0DMjd0QHc0aCKAw&usg=AFQjCNFqpTL_tS2tK1e0zMvOU_hBPAgLIA

 

I don't care what you, Evilhand (Joe Breidey?), Forsythe or even my pals Elk, Pumpsie or 700 think.......Youkilis has to be traded and the longer he is on the roster the worse it will get. It is hampering Gonzales being shoved around the diamond, it is inhibiting Middlebrooks' development, and it is tearing the structure of the team apart. We are not going anywhere this year except deep in the tank, which we are already in, and we have to start thinking of not only getting rid of a fast declining Youkilis but think also of trading Ortiz and Beckett who may bring something of value to the Red Sox as compared to Kevin whose fast fade will only bring us a box of pretzels. The team is not going to straighten out until we can put our best nine men on the field and keep them there instead of changing the linep every f@@in' night.:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown

[mvp 78]

To straighten out and play our best 9, we trade Beckett and Ortiz. I see...

[Elktonnick]

I don't care what you' date=' Evilhand (Joe Breidey?), Forsythe or even my pals Elk, Pumpsie or 700 think.......Youkilis has to be traded and the longer he is on the roster the worse it will get. It is hampering Gonzales being shoved around the diamond, it is inhibiting Middlebrooks' development, and it is tearing the structure of the team apart. We are not going anywhere this year except deep in the tank, which we are already in, and we have to start thinking of not only getting rid of a fast declining Youkilis but think also of trading Ortiz and Beckett who may bring something of value to the Red Sox as compared to Kevin whose fast fade will only bring us a box of pretzels. The team is not going to straighten out until we can put our best nine men on the field and keep them there instead of changing the linep every f@@in' night.:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown:thumbdown[/quote']

 

I agree. As you know Fred I was among the first who thought Youklis had to be moved. Furthermore I thought then and I think now the Red Sox could have gotten a ML ready player for Youk in the fall but now they won't get anything but a prospect or two.

 

I don't know if you saw the end of the game but Youk went off on the umpires after the game was over. That was stupid. But no one ever suggested Youklis was the smartest player on the roster.

[evilhand]

Papelbon pitched a full season every season. He was very reliable' date=' and often outstanding. While saves is not the best way to evaluate a pitcher, Papelbon did reach 200 career saves faster than any pitcher in history. He'd been through the pressure cooker of Boston and triumphed. Before we crown Bailey to be as good as or a tick below, let him prove it on the field. As of now, he hasn't thrown a single pitch for the Sox.[/quote']

 

On a fluke injury. There is no one on the planet who predicted he would miss time with a thumb injury. And saves are an awful stat for evaluating players. They're nearly meaningless. As for Bailey not proving anything yet, ERA+ is park and league adjusted (as I mentioned in my previous post) so you can compare his ERA+ directly Papelbon's. That's what the stat is designed to do.

 

I also defy you to find anyone who predicted Reddick would do what he's done so far. He's hitting so far beyond what anyone projected it's ridiculous. Expecting him to have any chance to keep it up is also ridiculous. If he does, he'll be beating incredible odds and will have played well beyond his pedigree.

 

Getting Bailey and Sweeney for him was a good trade. Arguing otherwise is ignoring a great deal of evidence and requires a bit of revisionist history.

 

The A's got a cost controlled OFer with more HRs than anyone on the Red Sox not named Ortiz for a closer making $4 million to rehab. That's the record as of today. Will it turn out different? Yes' date=' it might, but let it run it's course before throwing this one on Cherry's side of the ledger, especially at a time where the results are one-sided in the opposite direction.[/quote']

 

Again, I guarantee he'll finish with significantly less home runs than the 39 he's on pace for and his OPS will certainly drop from .860. I'll be very surprised if he finishes with it above .800. In fact, his impressive line is due entirely to a hot May. Specifically, May 10th through June 4th where he had a 1.004 OPS and 8 of his 14 home runs.

 

In fact, he's now gone 12 games (53 PAs) without a home run and has sported a .680 OPS over that span. He may already be in the midst of his inevitable cold spell. This year his hot streak started in May and lasted 17 games. Last year it started as soon as he was called up and lasted... wait for it... 17 games.

 

So again, the trade for Bailey and Sweeney was a good one.

 

Clear win for Cherries? He didn't annoint Doubront as the #4 before Spring Training. The kid won the job. It was more like throwing a bunch of s*** (made up of retreads and misfits) at the wall and hoping something would stick. Picking Doubront from this Motley group didn't take a lot of foresight. Clear win? What the hell did Cherries win? Our pitching sucks.

 

Nice strawman. The starting rotation has not been good as a whole, thus we cannot point to Doubront as having been a bright sport, or to Cherrington recognizing that he was the best of the bunch after spring training. Keep in mind that spring training results are often not predictive in the slightest. So some skill in evaluating (or trust in others to evaluate) was still necessary to identify Doubront as the one (or one of the two) who deserved a spot.

 

No' date=' I am lamenting that this would be a better team if Scutaro was on the roster instead of Punto. Punto is a complete waste.[/quote']

 

Which has nothing to do with Aviles, and thus does not negate the fact that he identified Aviles as an above average major league short stop. So this gets chalked up in the win column for Cherrington. Punto/Scutaro is another issue, and one I've said was a mistake already.

 

Like him? I don't even know him. I don't like or dislike FO guys. I look at their record. This guy has done little to nothing so far in his tenure. You haven't proved otherwise. Even if I conceded all of your points' date=' which I do not, he still has a completely undistinguished record.[/quote']

 

I've clearly demonstrated this has not been the case thus far, but let's keep in mind that you're passing this judgement after less than a year at the helm. Calling this hasty would be kind.

 

Don't think there's any need to be so dismissive. My original post made clear that I just wanted to start a discussion and it's apparent that a good few people agree with my point of view.

 

If you want to deal in OBP and slugging, Youkilis is 11th (with .314) and 12th (with .372) respectively in those stats. Middlebrooks is 7th (with .341) and 5th (with .517). Don't forget that Youk is the 4th highest paid batter playing for the Red Sox. To my mind, he's over-paid, over-rated and the team can do without him.

 

If you don't want your thread topics to be dismissed, you might want to avoid starting with untenable position.

 

As has been covered in several threads now, Youk's line this year is skewed heavily by his time playing injured in April. Since returning his OBP (coming into tonight) was .338 and his SLG was .404. Not quite the disparity you're pushing. Youk hasn't maintained the power he showed in his first 9 games back, but 16 games is such a small sample you can't really derive much from it at this point.

 

As I've argued with others, you can't argue that he has lost the ability to hit while healthy since we haven't seen enough of him while healthy since he got hurt last year.

 

So again, if you want to argue he can't stay healthy, you'll get less disagreement from me. But if you want to argue he can't hit while healthy, you'll need to bring some kind of evidence to the table beyond his stats while hurt.

[evilhand]

seabeachfred, you still haven't told me if you want to do the donation, a sig bet or both for our wager.

[seabeachfred]

seabeachfred' date=' you still haven't told me if you want to do the donation, a sig bet or both for our wager.[/quote']

 

I already said "Yes Bub!!!!!!! Either here or on another post. A donation. After I win you send $20.00 to St. Jude Children's Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. If you win it goes to, what, Farber?

[a700hitter]

On a fluke injury. There is no one on he planet who predicted he would miss time with a thumb injury. And saves are an awful stat for evaluating players. They're nearly meaningless. As for Bailey not proving anything yet' date=' ERA+ is park and league adjusted (as I mentioned in my previous post) so you can compare his ERA+ directly Papelbon's. That's what the stat is designed to do.[/quote']ERA+ is park adjusted, but it is not adjusted for a high pressure atmosphere like Boston and the effect on an individual. Bailey's thumb injury may have been unforeseen, but the reason for the injury doesn't matter. He hasn't pitched yet for the Red Sox. We don't know if it is a good trade. Also, keep in mind that he has a very balky elbow.

 

I also defy you to find anyone who predicted Reddick would do what he's done so far. He's hitting so far beyond what anyone projected it's ridiculous. Expecting him to have any chance to keep it up is also ridiculous. If he does, he'll be beating incredible odds and will have played well beyond his pedigree.

 

Getting Bailey and Sweeney for him was a good trade. Arguing otherwise is ignoring a great deal of evidence and requires a bit of revisionist history.

In evaluating a trade, the expectations before the trade don't matter. What matters is the performance after the trade. The expectations before the trade are meaningless except to excuse a trade that turns out poorly.

 

Again, I guarantee he'll finish with significantly less home runs than the 39 he's on pace for and his OPS will certainly drop from .860. I'll be very surprised if he finishes with it above .800. In fact, his impressive line is due entirely to a hot May. Specifically, May 10th through June 4th where he had a 1.004 OPS and 8 of his 14 home runs.

 

In fact, he's now gone 12 games (53 PAs) without a home run and has sported a .680 OPS over that span. He may already be in the midst of his inevitable cold spell. This year his hot streak started in May and lasted 17 games. Last year it started as soon as he was called up and lasted... wait for it... 17 games.

 

So again, the trade for Bailey and Sweeney was a good one.

I'll agree that we won't know whether it is a good trade until the end of the season, but you are jumping to a conclusion that is opposite of the returns thus far. The fact is that you don't know what their production will look like at the end of the year. If the results favor the Red Sox, Cherries gets credit, but right now the results are, at best, inconclusive, so we don't know if it is a good trade. In your opinion, it is a good trade. I am not so certain.

 

Nice strawman. The starting rotation has not been good as a whole' date=' thus we cannot point to Doubront as having been a bright sport, or to Cherrington recognizing that he was the best of the bunch after spring training. Keep in mind that spring training results are often not predictive in the slightest. So some skill in evaluating (or trust in others to evaluate) was still necessary to identify Doubront as the one (or one of the two) who deserved a spot.[/quote']I didn't say that Doubront was not a bright spot, but Cherries didn't acquire him. He's been in the organization for a few years, and he beat out a pile of garbage for a rotation spot. I don't see how Cherries gets any credit for this other than the fact that he did not acquire any pitcher that would have been credible competition for the rotation spot.

 

Which has nothing to do with Aviles' date=' and thus does not negate the fact that he identified Aviles as an above average major league short stop. So this gets chalked up in the win column for Cherrington. Punto/Scutaro is another issue, and one I've said was a mistake already.[/quote']So, it is a success to get rid of one player to acquire an inferior player? That's not a success. The so-called identifying Aviles as an above average SS is BS. Bobby V and the organization was pulling hard for Iglesias to win the job according to all reports. Unfortunately, Iglesias couldn't hit his weight and Aviles tore the cover off the ball. Their hand was forced. They had planned for Aviles to be a super utility player who could play all IF positions and the OF. Iglesias failure in Spring Training and the trade of Scutaro left them with no other option, but Aviles. The Scutaro move was not independent of the Punto acquisition. There was no need for Punto if Scutaro had remained. He made a bad choice.

 

I've clearly demonstrated this has not been the case thus far' date=' but let's keep in mind that you're passing this judgement after less than a year at the helm. Calling this hasty would be kind.[/quote']I am not condemning him for all time, but I don't believe in giving credit to someone until the facts are in showing that he deserves credit. The results are inconclusive at this point, but the partial returns do not favor Cherries.

[evilhand]

ERA+ is park adjusted' date=' but it is not adjusted for a high pressure atmosphere like Boston and the effect on an individual. Bailey's thumb injury may have been unforeseen, but the reason for the injury doesn't matter. He hasn't pitched yet for the Red Sox. We don't know if it is a good trade. Also, keep in mind that he has a very balky elbow.[/quote']

 

Of course the reason for the injury matters. If he had gone down with an elbow injury, that'd be different. The missed time would be due to a foreseeable problem. And the pressure cooker argument is right up there with the "mental midget" stance. Armchair psychology at its best.

 

The amount of players who have actually been unable to cope with playing in a city like New York or Boston is extremely small. Fact is, he's been as good or better while on the field over the last three years. The only reason Papelbon is preferable is his superior health.

 

In evaluating a trade' date=' the expectations before the trade don't matter. What matters is the performance after the trade. The expectations before the trade are meaningless except to excuse a trade that turns out poorly.[/quote']

 

Not true. Ignoring the context of the trade is poor analysis. Besides, I'm not hinging my argument on expectations after 2011. I'm pointing to his 2011 to demonstrate that he's streaky and that his hot streak from this year is very similar to what we saw in Boston last year. It informs my opinion that he's going to finish the year much worse off than his line looks right now.

 

I'll agree that we won't know whether it is a good trade until the end of the season' date=' but you are jumping to a conclusion that is opposite of the returns thus far. The fact is that you don't know what their production will look like at the end of the year. If the results favor the Red Sox, Cherries gets credit, but right now the results are, at best, inconclusive, so we don't know if it is a good trade. In your opinion, it is a good trade. I am not so certain.[/quote']

 

I'm evaluating it based on the talent swapped, which is very reasonable. Bailey is an outstanding closer when on the field. Sweeney is a solid 4th outfielder. They were acquired for an outfielder who would have likely been the 4th outfielder to start the season if he'd stayed in Boston.

 

This trade likely can't get worse than "good." If Bailey comes back and pitches well this year and has a relatively healthy 2013, it moves to great.

 

I didn't say that Doubront was not a bright spot' date=' but Cherries didn't acquire him. He's been in the organization for a few years, and he beat out a pile of garbage for a rotation spot. I don't see how Cherries gets any credit for this other than the fact that he did not acquire any pitcher that would have been credible competition for the rotation spot.[/quote']

 

I didn't say he acquired him. I said he identified him out of the crop of available pitchers and gave him a spot in the rotation. He could easily have thrown Padilla or Cook in that role and relegated Doubront to the bullpen as a lefty specialist. He didn't. He chose Doubront.

 

There is zero reason not to chalk this up as a win for him. Your stubborn refusal to acknowledge this is irrational and a big reason why I see a dislike for Cherrington in your posts. (A dislike for him as GM, not him personally)

 

So' date=' it is a success to get rid of one player to acquire an inferior player? That's not a success. The so-called identifying Aviles as an above average SS is BS. Bobby V and the organization was pulling hard for Iglesias to win the job according to all reports. Unfortunately, Iglesias couldn't hit his weight and Aviles tore the cover off the ball. Their hand was forced. They had planned for Aviles to be a super utility player who could play all IF positions and the OF. Iglesias failure in Spring Training and the trade of Scutaro left them with no other option, but Aviles. The Scutaro move was not independent of the Punto acquisition. There was no need for Punto if Scutaro had remained. He made a bad choice.[/quote']

 

You need to read a little more carefully. I never said Punto was independent of Scutaro, I said Punto has nothing to do with Aviles. Identifying Aviles as an above average major league player had nothing to do with Scutaro being traded away. It had to do with seeing enough out of Aviles to give him the keys and trade away Lowrie for some bullpen help.

 

And his spring training had zero to do with it. He had a .717 OPS this spring. Hardly tearing the cover off the ball. He didn't start hitting well until after Iglesias was sent back to Pawtucket. As for Bobby V and the "FO" pulling for Iglesias, you'll need to be more specific as the FO is a vague term.

 

In the end, Aviles was identified as being worthy of a starting role, and that assessment was correct.

 

All these strawmen you seem to want to insert into this portion of the discussion are irrelevant. This is another great example of you approaching Cherrington irrationally.

 

I am not condemning him for all time' date=' but I don't believe in giving credit to someone until the facts are in showing that he deserves credit. The results are inconclusive at this point, but the partial returns do not favor Cherries.[/quote']

 

They clearly do. You just refuse to acknowledge it.

 

I already said "Yes Bub!!!!!!! Either here or on another post. A donation. After I win you send $20.00 to St. Jude Children's Hospital in Memphis' date=' Tennessee. If you win it goes to, what, Farber?[/quote']

 

Farber is fine. Let's hope, for the team's sake, that you end up paying this one out.

[seabeachfred]

To straighten out and play our best 9' date=' we trade Beckett and Ortiz. I see...[/quote']

 

No!!!! Apparently you don't see. We play our best 9 AFTER we trade Beckett and Ortiz and start rebuilding our team. You see, we are NOT going to get s*** for Youkilis because he is looking worse with each passing game---just as someone I won't mentiion on this board has been say ing for the past few days. The longer he plays the worse he will look and the less we will get for him. But for those other two we might be able to get some good young talent.

 

Look, wake up and smell the efen coffee...THIS SEASON IS SHOT DOWN THE CRAPPER. We are not going anywhere but down. Our rotation sucks, we have no real closer, once again we look like a MASH unit , we have a GM who is more effective when he has his head up his ass because when tries to breath fresh air his alleged brain crumbles from abject ignorance and stupidity. We have an owner who doesn't give a s*** anymore, a sawdust Caesar who is more worried about controlling people than he is about putting a winning team on the field.

 

To quote Leo Durocher, it is time to back up the truck.

[a700hitter]

Of course the reason for the injury matters. If he had gone down with an elbow injury, that'd be different. The missed time would be due to a foreseeable problem. And the pressure cooker argument is right up there with the "mental midget" stance. Armchair psychology at its best.

 

The amount of players who have actually been unable to cope with playing in a city like New York or Boston is extremely small. Fact is, he's been as good or better while on the field over the last three years. The only reason Papelbon is preferable is his superior health.

 

 

 

Not true. Ignoring the context of the trade is poor analysis. Besides, I'm not hinging my argument on expectations after 2011. I'm pointing to his 2011 to demonstrate that he's streaky and that his hot streak from this year is very similar to what we saw in Boston last year. It informs my opinion that he's going to finish the year much worse off than his line looks right now.

 

 

 

I'm evaluating it based on the talent swapped, which is very reasonable. Bailey is an outstanding closer when on the field. Sweeney is a solid 4th outfielder. They were acquired for an outfielder who would have likely been the 4th outfielder to start the season if he'd stayed in Boston.

 

This trade likely can't get worse than "good." If Bailey comes back and pitches well this year and has a relatively healthy 2013, it moves to great.

 

 

 

I didn't say he acquired him. I said he identified him out of the crop of available pitchers and gave him a spot in the rotation. He could easily have thrown Padilla or Cook in that role and relegated Doubront to the bullpen as a lefty specialist. He didn't. He chose Doubront.

 

There is zero reason not to chalk this up as a win for him. Your stubborn refusal to acknowledge this is irrational and a big reason why I see a dislike for Cherrington in your posts. (A dislike for him as GM, not him personally)

 

 

 

You need to read a little more carefully. I never said Punto was independent of Scutaro, I said Punto has nothing to do with Aviles. Identifying Aviles as an above average major league player had nothing to do with Scutaro being traded away. It had to do with seeing enough out of Aviles to give him the keys and trade away Lowrie for some bullpen help.

 

And his spring training had zero to do with it. He had a .717 OPS this spring. Hardly tearing the cover off the ball. He didn't start hitting well until after Iglesias was sent back to Pawtucket. As for Bobby V and the "FO" pulling for Iglesias, you'll need to be more specific as the FO is a vague term.

 

In the end, Aviles was identified as being worthy of a starting role, and that assessment was correct.

 

All these strawmen you seem to want to insert into this portion of the discussion are irrelevant. This is another great example of you approaching Cherrington irrationally.

 

 

 

They clearly do. You just refuse to acknowledge it.

 

 

 

Farber is fine. Let's hope, for the team's sake, that you end up paying this one out.

That's your opinion. The fact is that Cherries has brought almost no helpful talent to the organization in his tenure. You insist on giving him credit for bringing in Bailey who has yet to throw a pitch in exchange for a guy who in 2 months has equaled Sweeney's career HR total. I think we need to see some results before judgment is passed in favor of Cherries on this one. Right now the results are not good. Expectations at the time of the trade don't make your opinion informed. You had better believe that there is a lot of back patting in the Front Offices in Oakland and Houston.

 

Giving Cherries credit for identifying players that were on his own roster is reminiscent of the "jobs created or saved" explanation of the Obama administration. It's bogus. Doubront was already in the organization and he beat out a bunch of retreads and misfits for a rotation spot. Big whoop! Getting rid of Scutaro was supposed to free up payroll, which ended up being used for nothing. It was a salary dump. Aviles was not identified as a stroke of genius as the full time SS. Scutaro was sent away as a salary dump. Oh, what genius, especially since his replacement is the useless Punto. I don't like or dislike Cherries as a person or GM, but he gets little to no credit from me, because that is what he has accomplished IMO.

 

Please stop with the constant use of the term strawman. It is reminiscent of some very unpleasant passed posters.

[evilhand]

That's your opinion. The fact is that Cherries has brought almost no helpful talent to the organization in his tenure. You insist on giving him credit for bringing in Bailey who has yet to throw a pitch in exchange for a guy who in 2 months has equaled Sweeney's career HR total. I think we need to see some results before judgment is passed in favor of Cherries on this one. Right now the results are not good. Expectations at the time of the trade don't make your opinion informed. You had better believe that there is a lot of back patting in the Front Offices in Oakland and Houston.

 

Sweeney has 1.0 WAR, Ross has 1.2, Shoppach has 0.6, Punto has -0.1, Padilla has 0.4, and Byrd has -1.0 but that's with both Chicago and Boston. I don't have a way to split it accurately, so let's just split the difference and call it -0.5.

 

That's a total of 2.6 WAR added to the roster from signings and trades.

 

Giving Cherries credit for identifying players that were on his own roster is reminiscent of the "jobs created or saved" explanation of the Obama administration. It's bogus. Doubront was already in the organization and he beat out a bunch of retreads and misfits for a rotation spot. Big whoop! Getting rid of Scutaro was supposed to freep payroll' date=' which ended up being used for nothing. It was a salary dump. Aviles was not identified as a stroke of genius as the full time SS. Scutaro was sent away as a salary dump. Oh, what genius, especially since his replacement is the useless Punto. I don't like or dislik Cherries as a person or GM, but he gets little to no credit from me, because that is what he has accomplished IMO.[/quote']

 

The players not on the opening day 25 man roster who have been called up (Spears, Repko, Lin, Nava, Middlebrooks, Podsednick, Tazawa) have accounted for 2.5 WAR already. Aviles has 0.7 so far. Doubront has 1.2 as a starter. As a reliever that number would be far less.

 

That's 4.4 WAR from player call ups.

 

Please stop with the constant use of the term strawman. It is reminiscent of some very unpleasant passed posters.

 

If you'd like for me to stop using the term strawman, you should probably stop using terms like "genius!" in responding to me as I'm not calling Cherrington a genius or even a great GM. I'm arguing his decisions have brought value to the big league club. Combining the above totals we get 7.0 WAR added to the roster by his decisions so far.

 

Now, WAR is not equal when combing players versus one player. So 7.0 WAR from 12 players is not equal to 7.0 WAR from one player, but it is a significant positive value. Your position has zero evidence to support it while mine has ample statistical backing. Cherrington has brought more than nothing to the table. In fact, he's brought a significant amount of help and that's before considering what they might get out of players like Bailey in the future.

 

You may not want to acknowledge it, but identifying useful parts on your own roster and putting them into a position to contribute is part of the GM's job, and it's a part that Cherrington has done well so far. The numbers above demonstrate that irrefutably.

 

Note: I used fangraphs WAR.