2012 Catch-All Trade Deadline Thread

[SoxFanForsyth]

I agree that it is trending in the right direction' date=' but 28 out of 30 at the one-third mark is horrendously bad and our place in the standings is reflective of it. If the pitching continues to trend in the right direction ending up in the middle of the pack, the offense should be able to drive this team up in the standings. However, if the pitching stays in the bottom third, they will be in trouble. Developing Bard is not a luxury they can afford.[/quote']

 

Well, I'd love to make a sig bet, money bet, beer bet, anything you like, that the following items will occur:

 

1. Lester will have an ERA lower than 4.79.

2. Beckett will have an ERA lower than 4.26.

3. Buchholz will have an ERA lower than 6.58.

 

All of those things will improve. The entire pitching staff didn't just get drained of talent. They'll return to form. Hell, Buchholz has thrown 15 IP, 3 ER in his past 2 starts. Beckett has a 2.20 ERA in his past 4 starts. Doubront has turned into an excellent pitcher.

 

If the biggest things we're concerned about this season are Jon Lester and Adrian Gonzalez, then this team is going to be in very, very good shape.

 

Bard is going to be replaced by DiceK very soon, we can all count on that. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox send Bard down to AAA to work out his kinks, and call up DiceK to take his starts in the meanwhile.

[a700hitter]

Well, I'd love to make a sig bet, money bet, beer bet, anything you like, that the following items will occur:

 

1. Lester will have an ERA lower than 4.79.

2. Beckett will have an ERA lower than 4.26.

3. Buchholz will have an ERA lower than 6.58.

 

You'll have to find someone else to make that sig bet, because I think they will all do better than that.

[SoxFanForsyth]

And by the way, DiceK catches a lot of s***, and rightfully so. But last season, he started to look good before he got hurt.

 

In his final 5 starts prior to hitting the DL, he was 3-0 with a 3.07 ERA.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You'll have to find someone else to make that sig bet' date=' because I think they will all do better than that.[/quote']

 

Exactly, so the team ERA will be better than that because those numbers are all manipulated by some poor early season outings carrying too much weight.

[evilhand]

And by the way, DiceK catches a lot of s***, and rightfully so. But last season, he started to look good before he got hurt.

 

In his final 5 starts prior to hitting the DL, he was 3-0 with a 3.07 ERA.

 

Daisuke has always been up and down as a starter, though. He was certainly on a role before he got hurt, but let's not pretend he's something other than what he is: a pitcher who doesn't attack the strike zone enough, is inefficient, but has excellent stuff and works out of a lot of the jams he creates.

 

He's a solid pitcher, and really... it probably wasn't fair to expect more than that when he was being wooed by the Red Sox front office. He's been paid 40 million by the team (his AAV has had him costing 40m as well) and according to fangraphs, has been worth about 44 million over that time.

 

So by that metric, he's been a good investment. Of course, many people lump the posting fee in with that cost even though it's not part of luxury tax calculations and didn't go to him directly. But strictly speaking contract, he's been worth more than they've paid. That means the team evaluated him pretty well as a talent and have gotten roughly what they expected up to this point.

 

He'll need to be worth 6 million this year to finish his contract being worth what he's been paid, so it remains to be seen if he'll keep up the pace. The injury really derailed him in this regard.

[a700hitter]

Exactly' date=' so the team ERA will be better than that because those numbers are all manipulated by some poor early season outings carrying too much weight.[/quote']I don't think anyone at the one-third mark last season expected Lackey to finish with a 7 ERA. The pitchers need to go out there and prove it. Of course it is not reasonable to believe that Buch will have a 6.50 ERA at the end of the season, but he also has the highest ERA in baseball of any pitcher with more than 60 innings. At the start of the season, I would have told you that I didn't think that would be reasonable in the first week of June. Saying that the numbers and his prior performance indicate that he will do better than a 6.50 ERA do give weight to the probability of your argument, but as John Lackey showed last season some times the odds are defied.

[Spitball]

Jeff Francis opted out of his minor league deal with Cincinnati. After a slow start, I understand he has been pitching better than he has in years. He recently pitched a shutout, but the Reds have used the same five starters all year long.

 

He might be worth a look.

[FredLynn]

Daisuke has always been up and down as a starter, though. He was certainly on a role before he got hurt, but let's not pretend he's something other than what he is: a pitcher who doesn't attack the strike zone enough, is inefficient, but has excellent stuff and works out of a lot of the jams he creates.

 

He's a solid pitcher, and really... it probably wasn't fair to expect more than that when he was being wooed by the Red Sox front office. He's been paid 40 million by the team (his AAV has had him costing 40m as well) and according to fangraphs, has been worth about 44 million over that time.

 

So by that metric, he's been a good investment. Of course, many people lump the posting fee in with that cost even though it's not part of luxury tax calculations and didn't go to him directly. But strictly speaking contract, he's been worth more than they've paid. That means the team evaluated him pretty well as a talent and have gotten roughly what they expected up to this point.

 

He'll need to be worth 6 million this year to finish his contract being worth what he's been paid, so it remains to be seen if he'll keep up the pace. The injury really derailed him in this regard.

 

Daisuke has always been up and down as a starter, though. He was certainly on a role before he got hurt, but let's not pretend he's something other than what he is: a pitcher who doesn't attack the strike zone enough, is inefficient, but has excellent stuff and works out of a lot of the jams he creates.

 

On the other board I post on one of the guys who is really into baseball statistics made the arguement that DiceK is actually more effective when he does not attack the strike zone. Seems that when he tries to do that he throws too many pitches down Main St, but when he is nibbling more at the corners he generally misses the heart of the plate. Sure, his pitch counts are high, and he walks more batters that way, but his ERA is actually lower when he nibbles. I cannot recall all the data or much more about how this was proven as it was a few years ago.

[mvp 78]

The only thing about DiceK is that he may thrive with BV and a higher pitch count. It's hard to really say. If he's near 100%, I'm all in on him as a SP. If he's only 75%, it's a crapshoot. He has the stuff, he just needs to be able to throw the way he wants to/needs to.

[BornToRun]

The only thing about DiceK is that he may thrive with BV and a higher pitch count. It's hard to really say. If he's near 100%' date=' I'm all in on him as a SP. If he's only 75%, it's a crapshoot. He has the stuff, he just needs to be able to throw the way he wants to/needs to.[/quote']

 

Yeah. The fact that Bobby managed in Japan and might have a better idea of how to use him makes me somewhat optimistic for his return.

[SoxSport]

Looking in the Red Sox draft room tonite, I see a bunch of boys. I hope these kids have at least played some baseball in their young careers.

[User Name]

Never has a more unsurprising comment graced this board.

[VA Sox Fan]

Never has a more unsurprising comment graced this board.

 

[SoxSport]

The kids just picked a SS, Devon Marrero, Arizona State. They spent $8mil on Iggy, so they pick another SS. What about the pitching? Looks like they picked the highest player available on the board.

[mvp 78]

The kids just picked a SS' date=' Devon Marrero, Arizona State. They spent $8mil on Iggy, so they pick another SS. What about the pitching? Looks like they picked the highest player available on the board.[/quote']

 

Middlebrooks SS

Pedroia SS

[Cocos Disciples]

Looks like they picked the highest player available on the board.

 

Which is exactly what teams should do. The needs of a team change constantly, so picking a guy who fits your needs in 2012 doesn't help when he isn't going to see the bigs until 2016.

[SoxSport]

Which is exactly what teams should do. The needs of a team change constantly' date=' so picking a guy who fits your needs in 2012 doesn't help when he isn't going to see the bigs until 2016.[/quote']

 

Yeah--he fell down to them, and they had to pick him. He's an excellent all-around player.

I have a hunch they are still looking for Hanley Ramirez.

[SoxSport]

Middlebrooks SS

Pedroia SS

 

Middlebrooks has probably grown out of the SS position. Just like Youks may have bulked up

out of the 3B position while playing 1B.

I'm surprised Pedey wasn't tried back at the SS position. He could do it for sure. He can do anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah--he fell down to them, and they had to pick him. He's an excellent all-around player.

I have a hunch they are still looking for Hanley Ramirez.

 

Like I said in the draft section, he's a safe player. I dont think he is a Pedroia offensively as he really doesnt have power. He's more a Mike Aviles ceiling player with Punto's glove, which is a good above average big league ceiling for a premium position. It's not one of those humongous ceiling players with a long way to go. His floor is a big league utility guy, his ceiling is as a perennial starting SS. Most draftees floors are minor league flunkies

[evilhand]

Middlebrooks has probably grown out of the SS position. Just like Youks may have bulked up

out of the 3B position while playing 1B.

I'm surprised Pedey wasn't tried back at the SS position. He could do it for sure. He can do anything.

 

I think the point he was trying to make was that a player being drafted as a short stop does not mean they'll end up as a short stop. Maybe he slides over to 3rd or 2nd, maybe Iglesias never reaches the bigs, maybe he ends up a super utility type. There are plenty of scenarios where he could end up a big league player, not just displacing Iglesias.

[redsoxfan3]

Like I said in the draft section' date=' he's a safe player. I dont think he is a Pedroia offensively as he really doesnt have power. He's more a Mike Aviles ceiling player with Punto's glove, which is a good above average big league ceiling for a premium position. It's not one of those humongous ceiling players with a long way to go. His floor is a big league utility guy, his ceiling is as a perennial starting SS. Most draftees floors are minor league flunkies[/quote']

 

He has the potential to develop power, but realistically I do not see that happening. I have seen stranger things happen. If he can hit for average and play solid D, then I will be happy with him.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have a proposition for sox fans here...

 

Lets say the sox are out of it by the deadline. The sox flounder around .500 while they are 12 back of the Yankees and are really not showing much life at all. Assume they are sellers and David Ortiz is your best trade chip.

 

Would you deal Ortiz to the Yankees if the Yankees offered the best package? I am not saying I want Ortiz on my team, just want to see who would and who wouldnt.

[mvp 78]

Depends on the package. Yankees prospects have historically been overvalued.

[a700hitter]

I have a proposition for sox fans here...

 

Lets say the sox are out of it by the deadline. The sox flounder around .500 while they are 12 back of the Yankees and are really not showing much life at all. Assume they are sellers and David Ortiz is your best trade chip.

 

Would you deal Ortiz to the Yankees if the Yankees offered the best package? I am not saying I want Ortiz on my team, just want to see who would and who wouldnt.

f*** no.I would never help the Yankees-- ever.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if it helped you more

[VA Sox Fan]

I have a proposition for sox fans here...

 

Lets say the sox are out of it by the deadline. The sox flounder around .500 while they are 12 back of the Yankees and are really not showing much life at all. Assume they are sellers and David Ortiz is your best trade chip.

 

Would you deal Ortiz to the Yankees if the Yankees offered the best package? I am not saying I want Ortiz on my team, just want to see who would and who wouldnt.

 

Hell NO! Papi will finish his career in a Red Sox uni.

[ibot2much]

The Yankees would NOT offer the best package. They don't need him since they have their own senior citizens to find places for.

[a700hitter]

Even if it helped you more

I would trade with the Yankees if they were out of playoff contention. I would never trade them a player to help them down the stretch run... ever. There are 28 other teams for a trade,

[SoxSport]

Never trade with the Yankees. Never. Remember Danny Cater for Sparky Lysle?

[Elktonnick]

Never trade with the Yankees. Never. Remember Danny Cater for Sparky Lysle?

 

Not to mention George Herman Ruth:angry: