5/27 VS Rays

[noreaster]

they only have to play 70-45 to win 93 games. that should make the playoffs.

[Brennan]

they only have to play 70-45 to win 93 games. that should make the playoffs.

 

 

Only 70-45?

 

After what? 24-25?

[noreaster]

ells and crawford will make a big difference. the pitching is improved, but the lineup on the field right now is minor league

[Brennan]

Look at the team's record from around mid August 2011 till now. Optimists are kidding themselves right now, it will be June in a few days amd we can't get over .500 for the lives of us.

[jung]

The one thing we have ignored generally in the just wait till Ells and CC comments is that on balance the guys that have played have performed admirably either in replacement or have played better than expected when they joined the team. Nava has played way over his head and has contributed. Ross and Sweeney were both to figure into the original equation but have both contributed much more than we would have expected during this period without Ells and CC.

 

I do expect Ross, Sweeney and Nava to all come back down to earth to some extent. The point is, I am not sure we are going to see that big a difference between the Sox with Ells and CC and without Ells and CC.

 

CC for his part still has to have a good run of baseball in Boston...something he has yet to do. I do expect them to have an impact, particularly Ells. I just do not think it is going to be night and day once we take more realistic Ross/Sweeney numbers and combine them with Ells and CC numbers. However it appears to me that we are treating the difference like it is going to be night and day.

 

That is going to be a tall order for a guy that has had a tough time proving himself at all here (CC) and a guy coming of a large joint injury (Ells).

 

In addition none of those guys do anything for our pitching. On that front, dice and Cook are arms but they are not going to be like suddenly getting a 1 or a 2 back into your rotation. Bailey may be the biggest plus coming for the pitching.

[noreaster]

the guys you have boosted as filling in well have been getting good pitches to hit. when those two get back, pitchers wont be able to continue pitching around pedroia and ortiz.

[Brennan]

The one thing we have ignored generally in the just wait till Ells and CC comments is that on balance the guys that have played have performed admirably either in replacement or have played better than expected when they joined the team. Nava has played way over his head and has contributed. Ross and Sweeney were both to figure into the original equation but have both contributed much more than we would have expected during this period without Ells and CC.

 

I do expect Ross, Sweeney and Nava to all come back down to earth to some extent. The point is, I am not sure we are going to see that big a difference between the Sox with Ells and CC and without Ells and CC.

 

CC for his part still has to have a good run of baseball in Boston...something he has yet to do. I do expect them to have an impact, particularly Ells. I just do not think it is going to be night and day once we take more realistic Ross/Sweeney numbers and combine them with Ells and CC numbers. However it appears to me that we are treating the difference like it is going to be night and day.

 

That is going to be a tall order for a guy that has had a tough time proving himself at all here (CC) and a guy coming of a large joint injury (Ells).

 

In addition none of those guys do anything for our pitching. On that front, dice and Cook are arms but they are not going to be like suddenly getting a 1 or a 2 back into your rotation. Bailey may be the biggest plus coming for the pitching.

 

 

 

 

 

They have tried them all, wait till Dice-K comes back, Crawford, etc.. Ells is probably the only one that will make any difference. No one man can turn this mess into a PO team though as anyone with a eyes connected to a brain can see.

[redsoxbeatz]

?

 

Agreed.

[redsoxfan3]

Look at the team's record from around mid August 2011 till now. Optimists are kidding themselves right now' date=' it will be June in a few days amd we can't get over .500 for the lives of us.[/quote']

 

You are kidding, right? We are one game below .500. It is not the end of the world. Our OF consists of Nava, Byrd, Podsednik, and Gonzalez. That outfield defensively is not that great. That OF offensively is not even remotely good, aside from Gonzalez. Nava, Byrd, and Pods can get on hot streaks occasionally, but we have that OF now and we are playing .500 baseball. When we get Sweeney, Ross, CC, and Ells back we will be fine. We will be able to get over the .500 mark. Our pitching is finally solid. Our offense will improve.

[Brennan]

You are kidding' date=' right? We are one game below .500. It is not the end of the world. Our OF consists of Nava, Byrd, Podsednik, and Gonzalez. That outfield defensively is not that great. That OF offensively is not even remotely good, aside from Gonzalez. Nava, Byrd, and Pods can get on hot streaks occasionally, but we have that OF now and we are playing .500 baseball. When we get Sweeney, Ross, CC, and Ells back we will be fine. We will be able to get over the .500 mark. Our pitching is finally solid. Our offense will improve.[/quote']

 

 

 

Not kidding, just stating FACTS not fiction.

 

LAST PLACE in division and June is here.

 

Pitching is NOT solid. (check team ERA ETC.)

 

Time to take the blinders off, this is not just a problem that started this season.

[mvp 78]

Oh noes. Last place in May! How many games out of WC?

[FredLynn]

they only have to play 70-45 to win 93 games. that should make the playoffs.

 

Thats one of the dumbest posts I have seen here in a while. 70-45 is .608 baseball, or 99 wins in a season. Absurd. We are an average team that will probably play average baseball for the rest of the season. Why? Because our pitching stinks.

[a700hitter]

A month away from Ellsbury and about two for Crawford right?

 

Hang on to 500 till then.

Hanging onto .500 until August will have us near the bottom of the division. That won't work. They need to do better than a .500 record at the start of August.

[mvp 78]

Hanging onto .500 until August will have us near the bottom of the division. That won't work. They need to do better than a .500 record at the start of August.

 

Need to be within 6 games of WC for any chance at that time.

 

Last year, they were 66-40 on that date. A .500 record would be nearly impossible to do something with at that point. Honestly, if they are .500 on July 1st, they become sellers at the deadline.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hanging onto .500 until August will have us near the bottom of the division. That won't work. They need to do better than a .500 record at the start of August.

 

Well, they'll likely be over .500 by then, but it may be by only 4 or 6 games. Even so, everything is so jammed up. Nobody is pulling away with anything.

 

It's been 47 games, the Sox are a game under .500, and they are still only 3 games out of the WC.

 

And anyone who thinks the Orioles are going to continue to win is delusional. I'm sorry - they're going to drop out. And it's already kind of starting. They've lost 5 of their last 7.

 

But regardless, 3 games out while being 1 game under .500. They'll be in good shape, especially if Buchholz has figured it out.

 

If I had to choose between the Sox losing, but Buch throwing a great game, or the Sox winning but Buch going 4 IP and giving up 5 ER, I would take the former. If he figures it out, all of a sudden the SP turns into a strength. And Gonzo went deep - that's a great sign as well.

 

It was a tough loss yesterday, but a lot of things looked good and if we put ourselves in that situation where we're going into the 9th with a lead, we'll take that game 9 times out of 10.

[jung]

Funny how MLB has to mask its rescue schemes for us and teams like the Yankees in these "keep the interest up everywhere" programs.

 

MLB needs the big market teams in order to generate the big bucks and at the end of the day, it seems more than just a little interesting that the second WC comes along just as the Sox and Yanks are struggling to get in based on the old format.

 

If there were only 1 WC team this year, there would already be just about nothing to talk about as far as post season is concerned for either Yankee fans or us.

 

Seems to me that as far as participation across the league, the previous system was already working with teams like the Rays getting in and teams like the Angels looking like they could get in. It was only when it suddenly looked like teams like the Yankees and us might not get in that MLB responded.

[ellsburyforMVP]

Not kidding, just stating FACTS not fiction.

 

LAST PLACE in division and June is here.

 

Pitching is NOT solid. (check team ERA ETC.)

 

Time to take the blinders off, this is not just a problem that started this season.

 

Ok do this ..... Check the team era from the first 3 weeks and then compare it to the rest of the season? Funny thing about era..... When your team gets rocked early on, it skews the era for quite some time...We gave up 10-13-18-15 runs all in April....since then, we have only gave up More than 6 runs 4 times with the high being 9 ( once ) 8-twice and 7 once...

 

So sure, our pitching may not be "solid" but they have vastly improved, our bullpen HAS been solid ( with the exception of last night) .....

[Station 13]

Hanging onto .500 until August will have us near the bottom of the division. That won't work. They need to do better than a .500 record at the start of August.

 

Seems like 85 wins at best.

[noreaster]

Thats one of the dumbest posts I have seen here in a while. 70-45 is .608 baseball' date=' or 99 wins in a season. Absurd. We are an average team that will probably play average baseball for the rest of the season. Why? Because our pitching stinks.[/quote']

 

i may write dumb things, but i can read and add. you should learn how, then you won't write dumb things.

[jung]

I think the point Brennan is trying to make is that the overall league and team dynamics have not changed. 1,2 and 3 in our rotation (far more important than 4 and 5) still goes out there and has a decent start surrounding it not by mediocre starts but by heaping turds. 4 and 5 do what is expected of a 4 and a 5 which means they are already digging into the pen.

 

It is the failings of 1,2 and 3 that have not changed to any significant degree. Beckett is by far the most consistent of those three and to be honest I think he has fairly judged himself in that regard. He no longer believes baseball to be as important to him as it once was and the result is the occasional start where he simply is out there on the mound as an empty uniform. The most startling thing about that is that he is head and shoulders more consistent than Lester and Buch even given his current level of interest in baseball.

 

As for the league as a whole, the issue is not even where teams like the Orioles will finish at this point. In general there are more mid-level teams this year than there has been for a long time....those that are based primarily on pitching will last longer and win more games than those that are not which is how and why we go 10-3 in 13 games and still are mired in the basement.

 

The most important team dynamic bearing on the Sox is the Starting Pitching, most specifically 1,2 and 3. The most important league dynamic is the re-emergence of mid-level teams that will win more games generally and win more games from the Sox.

 

Those two elements bearing on the Sox remain essentially unchanged from the start of the year to today. There are other things both positive and negative to talk about including things the Sox could do better that might have an impact but as for right now, those two elements remain as the biggest issues bearing on the Sox.

 

If we are incredibly lucky we may end up bailed out by the league's second WC birth but that is about the only thing on the other side of the ledger. Interesting that the league waited till the season had already begun to finalize that decision.

[Bellhorn04]

As for the league as a whole, the issue is not even where teams like the Orioles will finish at this point. In general there are more mid-level teams this year than there has been for a long time....those that are based primarily on pitching will last longer and win more games than those that are not which is how and why we go 10-3 in 13 games and still are mired in the basement.

 

We're mired in the basement yet only 5.5 games out of first.

 

The positive thing about the overall strengthening of the division is that the Orioles, Rays, Yankees and Jays also have to play each other 18 times and that should have a drag on the W-L records in the division.

[FredLynn]

i may write dumb things' date=' but i can read and add. you should learn how, then you won't write dumb things.[/quote']

 

Check my figures again. You opined that of the next 115 games we would win 70 of them. Thats a .60869 pace. Multiply that by a full season of 162 games and you would see that works out to be a pace to win 98.6 games in a full season. This team is nowhere near that talented. The evidence is in our (losing) record. We stink. We are in last place, and June is just four days away. Not only do you write dumb things, but apparently you cannot add either.

[jung]

We're mired in the basement yet only 5.5 games out of first.

 

Well OK. You want to look at it that way. The worst we ever were was 7.5 out. So going 10-3 we picked up all of 2 games. Think you have the same issue just expressed differently. It is still damned difficult to make up ground in the AL East this year. We can look at the pack not being spread out in a positive light but that is simply a third way of expressing the same information a different way.

[a700hitter]

Well OK. You want to look at it that way. The worst we ever were was 7.5 out. So going 10-3 we picked up all of 2 games. Think you have the same issue just expressed differently. It is still damned difficult to make up ground in the AL East this year. We can look at the pack not being spread out in a positive light but that is simply a third way of expressing the same information a different way.

You need some patsies in the division to pick up ground fast. This year there are too many teams to climb over and none are patsies.

[redsoxfan3]

Not kidding, just stating FACTS not fiction.

 

LAST PLACE in division and June is here.

 

Pitching is NOT solid. (check team ERA ETC.)

 

Time to take the blinders off, this is not just a problem that started this season.

 

Fact: June is not here. We have three more games until June is here.

 

Fact: We are only five games out of first place in the AL East. That is not out of reach by any means.

 

Fact: Pitching is really improving. I would consider the pitching as of late to be solid. It is not perfect, but it is definitely solid enough for us to win games.

 

Fact: You are pessimistic and a fan that is giving up on this team with over 100 games yet to be played. That is laughable.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Good to see the graybeard gallery is still as loud and obnoxious as ever.

[a700hitter]

Good to see the graybeard gallery is still as loud and obnoxious as ever.

Bazinga