Forget Oswalt Welcome Ohlendorf

[User Name]

So what are you saying? That Jason Johnson' date=' Kyle Snyder, DiNardo and that cast of losers were never in our rotation back in 06? Is that what you're saying? Jesus lord what an apologist.[/quote']

 

If calling you out on the s*** you make up to bitch and moan while annoying the hell out of anyone with a shred of common sense makes me an apologist, then i am an apologist.

 

They ended up in the rotation because of circumstance. They were never planned to be with the team.

[Muggah]

If calling you out on the s*** you make up to bitch and moan while annoying the hell out of anyone with a shred of common sense makes me an apologist, then i am an apologist.

 

They ended up in the rotation because of circumstance. They were never planned to be with the team.

 

Well how the hell do you think this list of s***-kickers are going to wind up in the rotation?

 

You need to take a deep breath and think. You're apparently one of those loose-cannoned tub-thumpers who speak before thinking. That's very apparent. If you're willing to work on it I'm willing to help. Let me know.

[User Name]

Well how the hell do you think this list of s***-kickers are going to wind up in the rotation?

 

You keep making the assumption that everyone will get injured. It corresponds with most of the frankly dumb notions you have and use to criticize everything, and everyone, all the time. I may bite one of my fingers off from emotion when you actually write up a good, objective post instead of the usual crapfest.

 

You need to take a deep breath and think. You're apparently one of those loose-cannoned tub-thumpers who speak before thinking. That's very apparent. If you're willing to work on it I'm willing to help. Let me know.

 

This describes you perfectly by the way. Only instead of "not thinking" insert "immediately bitch about everything as much as possible". Be objective, and try thinking, as you tell me.

[mvp 78]

But losing just 1 starter would likely be catastrophic for the Sox since we only have 3 starters.

 

That wasn't the original point being made. It specfically said 2 key starters.

[User Name]

That wasn't the original point being made. It specfically said 2 key starters.

 

All of them are going to get injured. Didn't you know?

 

We'll have a rotation of Padilla, Cook, Ohlendorf, Silva and Doubront. I know because Muggah said so.

[a700hitter]

Here's a list of our starting rotation coming out of camp since 2004. I have included the depth options as well. The names listed do not include people who were not with the organization at the start of the season, e.g. Paul Byrd, Kyle Snyder and Bedard. Compare and contrast. There was only one season where a career reliever was in the rotation -- 2007-- Tavares. At least Tavares had pitched for a few seasons as a full time starter. Also, the depth options were Lester and Buchholz-- 2 major league ready guys.

 

2004

Schilling

Pedro

Lowe

Wakefield

Arroyo

 

They averaged 31 starts. Fewest starts was Arroyo 29

 

2005

Wells

Clement

Wakefield

Arroyo

Wade Miller

 

Depth: Schilling (11 starts), Papelbon (3 starts), Geremi Gonzalez (3 starts)

 

2006

Beckett

Schilling

Wakefield

Clement

Wells

 

Depth: Lester (15 starts), DiNardo (6 starts), Tavarez (6 starts)

 

2007

Beckett

Schilling

Dice K

Wakefield

Tavarez

 

Depth: Lester (11 starts), Bucholz (3 starts)

 

2008

Beckett

Lester

Dice K

Wakefield

Buchholz

 

Depth: Masterson (9 starts), Colon (7 starts)

 

2009

Beckett

Lester

Dice K

Wakefield

Penny

 

Depth: Buchholz (16 starts), Masterson (6 starts), Smoltz (8 starts), Tazawa (4 starts)

 

2010

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Lackey

Wakefield

 

Depth: Dice K (25 starts), Doubront (3 starts)

 

2011

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Lackey

Dice K

 

Depth: Wakefield (23 starts), Aceves (4 starts), Miller (12 starts), Weiland (5 starts)

 

2012

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Bard

Aceves

 

Depth: Padilla, Silva, Cook, Maine, Ohlendorf, and Doubront

[a700hitter]

That wasn't the original point being made. It specfically said 2 key starters.

Who cares what the original point was? We only need to lose 1 starter to have a catastrophe. That's how thin our rotation is.

[mvp 78]

2012 > 2005 and 2006

[Bellhorn04]

Who cares what the original point was? We only need to lose 1 starter to have a catastrophe. That's how thin our rotation is.

 

That depends on a lot of things. Catastrophe is a possibility but far from a certainty IMO.

[FredLynn]

Fred, if 2 key starters went down on any team it would be trouble.

 

The problem isn't bringing in depth SP. The problem is that they don't have young arms in AA or AAA that are ready to contribute. If the farm system was better, these signings would mean nothing. If they can get 1 adequate SP out of the bunch, it's a win.

 

The problem is that we are starting with only three bona fide SP. Bard is untested and even if he works out great he can only give us 140 innings. If he does not work out he is back in the pen and we have "depth" (ie dung) as our #4 and 5 SP. Depth is supposed to be depth, not someone we rely on to start every fifth day.

[FredLynn]

That wasn't the original point being made. It specfically said 2 key starters.

 

If Bard doesn't work out and we lose even ONE starter then we have THREE of the dung brigade in our rotation.

Thats scary.

[a700hitter]

2012 > 2005 and 2006

I was hoping for some analysis.

 

In 2005, the top 4 guys averaged around 200 innings and almost 15 wins, the depth option returning from ankle surgery was Schilling, who was still the ace when he got healthy

 

In 2006, they had 3 pitchers in the rotation that won 200 more games in their careers --Wells, Wakefield and Schilling. Clement was coming off a year with 13 wins and he was on the All Star team. Wells was coming off a 15 win season. There was no reason to believe he would fall of a cliff, or Clement would blow out his arm. s*** happens. You are judging 2006 with 20-20 hindsight. If judged at the moment when Spring Training ended, I don't know if I would come to the same conclusion. Also the the depth option of Lester was better than what we have in 2012.

[a700hitter]

That depends on a lot of things. Catastrophe is a possibility but far from a certainty IMO.

If 1 of the top 3 go down or Bard can't cut it and has to go to the pen, what does the rotation look like?

[jacksonianmarch]

If 1 of the top 3 go down or Bard can't cut it and has to go to the pen' date=' what does the rotation look like?[/quote']

 

s***

[mvp 78]

Who cares what the original point was? We only need to lose 1 starter to have a catastrophe. That's how thin our rotation is.

 

I questionned Fred based on that issue alone. If you want to change the issue, don't quote me, make an argument and then say who cares about the original point. That's just asinine.

[Bellhorn04]

If 1 of the top 3 go down or Bard can't cut it and has to go to the pen' date=' what does the rotation look like?[/quote']

 

Going with the first scenario, one of the top 3 will almost certainly go down at some point.

 

So, if that's Buchholz, we would be left with:

 

Beckett

Lester

Bard

 

and 2 of the remaining items on the menu

 

Aceves

Doubront

Dice-K - if it's June or later and all goes well

Padilla

Any other dumpster boy who can get out big league hitters

Wakefield (out of retirement like Byrd)

Somebody we grab in a trade

[a700hitter]

I questionned Fred based on that issue alone. If you want to change the issue' date=' don't quote me, make an argument and then say who cares about the original point. That's just asinine.[/quote']I was making a different point. I think the discussion of losing 2 starters misses the point. I am allowed to make a new point. You dismissed the point I was making by saying that I was missing the original point. I wasn't. I was making a new point.

 

For someone who brags about the great booty he gets, you are a cranky fella.

[a700hitter]

Going with the first scenario, one of the top 3 will almost certainly go down at some point.

 

So, if that's Buchholz, we would be left with:

 

Beckett

Lester

Bard

 

and 2 of the remaining items on the menu

 

Aceves

Doubront

Dice-K - if it's June or later and all goes well

Padilla

Any other dumpster boy who can get out big league hitters

Wakefield (out of retirement like Byrd)

Somebody we grab in a trade

That's ugly.

[Muggah]

That's ugly.

 

That's 'maybe' another 3rd place finish.

[Bellhorn04]

That's ugly.

 

Yes, it could be ugly. Or we could be fortunate and find the nugget in the dung pile. We're not in a comfortable position, I agree. Personally I accept that it's our reality for this year.

[a700hitter]

Yes' date=' it could be ugly. Or we could be fortunate and find the nugget in the dung pile. We're not in a comfortable position, I agree. Personally I accept that it's our reality for this year.[/quote']We are in 100% agreement.

[jung]

The interesting thing about this whole argument is that all we have to do is go back one year to see what happens if a couple of your starters are out there getting blown up by the 3rd inning. You have your Manager running the bullpen out there early in those games so that they are gassed even when called upon later in games. Can you imagine what that would have looked like last year if Aceves did not have a big S stamped on his undershirt last year.

 

All we can talk about at this stage of the game is possibilities. But, does the rotation we are starting the year with this year instill buckets of confidence that we will not be running the bullpen out there early in games again this year?

 

If you have a great pen you can probably tolerate two guys in the rotation giving you less than 200 innings. You should not expect your 5 to give you 200 innings and should be grateful for any number over 150 from him. If your 4 is more like a 5, now your average good to very good pen is going to be in trouble. Your asking them to give you 50 more innings without even considering anything happening to the 1,2 or 3 guys in the rotation.

 

As 700's listing of opening day rotations suggests, unless some miracle happens between now and opening day, this is going to look like the shakiest rotation we have started the year with in the past several years. Remember 700 is not talking about the result in hindsight for each year. He is talking about expectations for the given rotation at the start of the year.

 

Does not mean that every starter is going to get hurt and that is I think really 700's point. Given the lack of proven performance out of the 4 and 5 starters we are likely to start the season with, would it be that much of a surprise if by season end we were not sitting here saying that the gamble taken in those two rotation spots did not work out and sunk the BP again this year?

 

or......

 

Do you think it more likely that both our 4 and our 5 will give us the innings one would normally expect for a 4 and a 5?

 

Now you can overlay onto that the possibility that nothing happens to your 1,2 and 3 and they make it through the entire season without spending any time on the DL. To counter that you can think about the possibility that you pick up a real deal addition to the rotation at the trading deadline.

 

It is all possibility but I am not brimming with confidence. I am brimming with interest to see how it all works out but I am not brimming with confidence.

[a700hitter]

The interesting thing about this whole argument is that all we have to do is go back one year to see what happens if a couple of your starters are out there getting blown up by the 3rd inning. You have your Manager running the bullpen out there early in those games so that they are gassed even when called upon later in games. Can you imagine what that would have looked like last year if Aceves did not have a big S stamped on his undershirt last year.

 

All we can talk about at this stage of the game is possibilities. But, does the rotation we are starting the year with this year instill buckets of confidence that we will not be running the bullpen out there early in games again this year?

 

If you have a great pen you can probably tolerate two guys in the rotation giving you less than 200 innings. You should not expect your 5 to give you 200 innings and should be grateful for any number over 150 from him. If your 4 is more like a 5, now your average good to very good pen is going to be in trouble. Your asking them to give you 50 more innings without even considering anything happening to the 1,2 or 3 guys in the rotation.

 

As 700's listing of opening day rotations suggests, unless some miracle happens between now and opening day, this is going to look like the shakiest rotation we have started the year with in the past several years. Remember 700 is not talking about the result in hindsight for each year. He is talking about expectations for the given rotation at the start of the year.

 

Does not mean that every starter is going to get hurt and that is I think really 700's point. Given the lack of proven performance out of the 4 and 5 starters we are likely to start the season with, would it be that much of a surprise if by season end we were not sitting here saying that the gamble taken in those two rotation spots did not work out and sunk the BP again this year?

 

or......

 

Do you think it more likely that both our 4 and our 5 will give us the innings one would normally expect for a 4 and a 5?

 

Now you can overlay onto that the possibility that nothing happens to your 1,2 and 3 and they make it through the entire season without spending any time on the DL. To counter that you can think about the possibility that you pick up a real deal addition to the rotation at the trading deadline.

 

It is all possibility but I am not brimming with confidence. I am brimming with interest to see how it all works out but I am not brimming with confidence.

We are really in the realm of saying "if this works out and if that works out and if we stay healthy...and if and if" That type of stuff starts to scare the heck out of me, because something always goes wrong. If we need everything to go right, that's just not realistic.

[FredLynn]

Yes' date=' it could be ugly. Or we could be fortunate and find the nugget in the dung pile. We're not in a comfortable position, I agree. Personally I accept that it's our reality for this year.[/quote']

 

Agreed. Very low expectations for this year. I just wish the FO had stayed UNDER THE CAP because there is little chance of really making a good run at it this year. Guess its just time to sit back and watch it all unfold. Whatever else it is, it will be interesting and probably not work out the way its been described in ANY of the scenarios here or on any other board.

Let the games begin............

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Very low expectations for this year. I just wish the FO had stayed UNDER THE CAP because there is little chance of really making a good run at it this year. Guess its just time to sit back and watch it all unfold. Whatever else it is' date=' it will be interesting and [b']probably not work out the way its been described in ANY of the scenarios here or on any other board.[/b]

Let the games begin............

 

LOL exactly right.

[BSN07]

You guys are right, this team is absolute s***. Can they just forfeit the season and save us all the misery? I mean it's really the only logical thing to do. No way they can compete. They might not even win 10 games once all the SP go down. What a bunch of oxygen thieves.

 

I mean the Yankess entered last season with Colon, Garcia and Burnett as 3/5 of the starting rotation, no # 2 and CC. They should have forfeited their season as well. Pfft the nerve of them playing it out and waisting everyones time.

[mvp 78]

I was making a different point. I think the discussion of losing 2 starters misses the point. I am allowed to make a new point. You dismissed the point I was making by saying that I was missing the original point. I wasn't. I was making a new point.

 

For someone who brags about the great booty he gets, you are a cranky fella.

 

I'm married. Booty is much harder to come by. And I don't think I've bragged either. Any previous booty comments were meant as jokes.

[a700hitter]

I'm married. Booty is much harder to come by. And I don't think I've bragged either. Any previous booty comments were meant as jokes.

Oh, you are married. That explains the crankiness. I feel your pain.

[jung]

You guys are right, this team is absolute s***. Can they just forfeit the season and save us all the misery? I mean it's really the only logical thing to do. No way they can compete. They might not even win 10 games once all the SP go down. What a bunch of oxygen thieves.

 

I mean the Yankess entered last season with Colon, Garcia and Burnett as 3/5 of the starting rotation, no # 2 and CC. They should have forfeited their season as well. Pfft the nerve of them playing it out and waisting everyones time.

 

This is the "world is all black or all white argument. It argues that any of you guys trying to look at the rotation from the perspective that 700 identified are just suggesting that we pack the season in. Nobody said that and the black or white argument is in this case a specious argument.

 

700 had restricted his analysis to past Sox rotations. As for the Yanks and their rotation, they also went into the 2011 season with a "terrific" bullpen, not just good, not just very good but an outstanding bullpen anchored by the greatest closer of all time. They had also seen Colon pitch in the off season and knew he had regained his fastball. So Colon was more a gamble regarding his weight and his reconstructed knee. There was no question that he could pitch at that point and his weight was down 30 lbs.

 

So Colon really does not figure into the equation and whatever you want to say about AJ you can't say the guy does not eat innings. I think he finished 2011 with something like 192 and that was not out of character for him. Again we are valuing these rotations at the start of the season when everything is a bunch of possibilities.

 

The Yanks could figure that AJ would likely eat innings again, they knew what they had in Colon and the certainly knew what they had in CC. 4 and 5 were definite gambles and if you want to look at the 4 and 5 from the perspective of innings they left a good many innings left out there to pitch. However they left them to a terrific BP.

 

Do you rate the Sox BP today what the Yanks had for a pen starting 2011? I don't see it and if either Aceves or Bard end up in the pen, it likely means the rotation is that much weaker at the start of the season or it means that one of them did not cut it as a starter and we had to move somebody else into the rotation. Pick your poison.

 

Since you appear to equate less than giddy optimism as a view that we should just pack the season in I am going to assume that your position is that they are a shoe in for the WS since that is the other end of the "world is black or white" argument.

[a700hitter]

I mean the Yankess entered last season with Colon' date=' Garcia and Burnett as 3/5 of the starting rotation, no # 2 and CC. They should have forfeited their season as well. Pfft the nerve of them playing it out and waisting everyones time.[/quote']The Yankee rotation coming out of Spring Training was CC, Burnett, Hughes, Nova, and Garcia. Burnett was an established MLB starter who had put together a number of successful seasons. Hughes was coming off an 18 win season. Garcia had made 28 starters in the prior season for the White Sox and won 12 games.