Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[SoxSport]

Their pitch has been not to spend any more money this year. From that standpoint, everything they've done makes sense. They made Bard a starter, and traded for a cheap closer. Then they auditioned a bunch of guys to be the 5th starter--figuring mud would stick somewhere. The thing that threw them off was Bailey's injury. They are not out of the woods yet on that one.

[VA Sox Fan]

BV will have a pitcher attempt a SB during interleague play.

 

Wouldn't surprise me!

[a700hitter]

Time to review my progress:

• David Ortiz wins his arbitration case ($16.5 million) but pouts for the entire season because the Red Sox disrespected him at the hearing and he demands a trade at the trading deadline, making the decision to offer arbitatration a complete cluster f***.(Wrong, they settled)
  
• We get 700+ innings from the 1 through 4 spots in the rotation.
  (This one is on target. There have been no major injuries to the rotation)
  
• No one pitching in the 5th spot in the rotation pitches more than 50 innings as a starter. The 5th spot becomes a fiasco.
  (Wow, I was amazingly close on this. Bard pitched 54 1/3 innings as a starter before he was sent down. The 5th spot has become a fiasco)
  
• Andrew Bailey hits the DL before the All Star Break. He is shut down in September to get TJ surgery in September.
  (DL'd and surgery, but wrong spot. TJ is still a possibility)
  
• Ellsbury does 30 -30 again.(Wrong. This went down in flames)
  
• Crawford steals 50 bases (Not a chance)
  
• Pedroia is a 20-20 man again (He's at 6 and 6-- not looking good)
  
• Cody Ross hits 20 HRs (On target)
  
• Salty keeps throwing balls into CF. He'll lead the league in passed balls without Wakefields help, and he'll keep striking out more than one-third of the time
  (He is tied for 3rd in passed balls and tied for second in throwing errors)
  
• Iglesias will win the starting SS position when camp breaks, but is OBP at the All Star Break will be .250.
  (Wrong)
  
• Youkilis will play the whole season and his OBP will be .370+, but his power will be down.
  (Could still be right about this, but I didn't know it would be with the White Sox. )
  
• Ortiz's power will be way down because pitchers will just stop pitching to him with no protection behind him.
  (To this point he is having a better season than 2011)
  
• Wakefield will pitch for the Sox at some point in 2012 but not win any games.(Hopefully, I will still be wrong about this:D)
  
• AGon hits 35 HRs (He will not hit even 20)
  
• After signing elswhere, it is divulged that the Red Sox never met with or offered Oswalt a contract.
  (As far as I know, the Red Sox never made an offer)
  
• The player we get as compensation for Theo never wears a Red Sox uniform.
  (The major piece went right for surgery. The minor piece has pitched in relief. Half right up to this point)

 

Does anyone else want to review their predictions?

[Emmz]

So essentially, you're wrong a lot. Now I feel better about you saying there's no chance at the division.

[Laser Show]

I see Crawford bouncing back and barely losing out to Adam Dunn for the comeback player of the year award.

 

Half right.. Dunn was a no-brainer. Although, he is on pace for a .208 BA and 250 K's, so it's not the runaway I thought it was.

[iortiz]

Fearless? We are a mass of question marks.

 

If we get a solid SP, the scenario will be completely different.

 

As constructed, we are a 5-6 team on paper in the AL. As I said, a lot analysts put us in that place. I agree. Sorry but trying to be objective, I just do not see this team in POs. SCM33's opinion seems very realistic to me.

 

A lot question marks. Let's take a tour,

 

2 huge question marks in our rotation 4-5.

 

A whole mystery in our BP, specially in Bailey/Melancon (injury concerns/performance).

 

Can Youk and Buch be healthy the entire season?

 

Everybody assumes that Crawford will bounce back (I tend to think the same). He is between cottons right now. We need his production early in the season. When is he going to comeback? How long is he going to take to get hot?

 

Will Ortiz put the same numbers?

 

Are Punto/Aviles the solution?

 

Seems like Beckett, Lester, A-Gon, Peddy and Ells are only our sure bets.

 

Plus, The AL seems more competitive this year on paper than recent years.

 

Beyond the 2010 and 2011 outcomes we didn't have these amount of question marks/ red flags on paper and we failed.

 

Yes, these question marks could play in our favor. Nevertheless and beyond baseball, when you have this kind of uncertainty in your business, most of the times it doesn't work out. Some people doesn't see this kind of uncertainty that experts/analysts/casinos/polls and some posters around here see in this team. That give me hopes. We better bring this SP which was our #1 priority this offseason and for whatever reason hasn't been addressed yet. Sounds crazy but this SP could make the difference between go/no-go to POs. As E1 said, we will see.

 

Well, I'm not that far from my prediction, unfourtunatly.

[mvp 78]

Well' date=' I'm not that far from my prediction, unfourtunatly.[/quote']

 

Which prediction is that? That the Sox are a 5-6 team in the AL?

[iortiz]

Which prediction is that? That the Sox are a 5-6 team in the AL?

 

Part.

[Cocos Disciples]

"Seems like Beckett, Lester, A-Gon, Peddy and Ells are only our sure bets."

 

Nailed it.

[a700hitter]

So essentially' date=' you're wrong a lot. Now I feel better about you saying there's no chance at the division.[/quote']These were fearless predictions. They were supposed to be a little bit out there. Predicting that the Red Sox have no shot at the Division crown is a slam dunk and not at all fearless. If you would like to predict, better yet bet, that the Sox will win the ALE crown, that would be a fearless prediction.

[SCM33]

My fearless prediction......right now, they are a third place team. They have stayed the same or gotten worse than they were last year.

 

People want to hang their hat on the fact that they missed the playoffs by 1 game last year. I missed the lottery drawing by 1 number, that doesnt make me any richer today than I was yesterday. As my marine core grandfather always said, "almost only counts in hand grenades and horseshoes".

 

Its the quiet before the storm. Like I said, as constructed....this team is worse than they were a year ago by 3 arms and a SS......they lost their closer, setup man and best reliever in Papelbon, Bard and Aceves. They replaced them with Bailey and Melancon...and still have not replaced Aceves innings from a year ago.

 

Bard and Aceves have now become question marks in the rotation and we still dont have a real SS.

 

Fearless prediction? Nope....they are a third place team. Evidence? They finished in third place the last two years with better teams than this one right now.

 

Could it change? Yeah, but they need to do something about it.....and the offseason clock is ticking......

 

Those were my spring training posts.

[a700hitter]

So essentially' date=' you're wrong a lot. Now I feel better about you saying there's no chance at the division.[/quote']What my predictions show is that I was much too optimistic about the 2012 Red Sox. I let my fandom color my judgment.

[Emmz]

These were fearless predictions. They were supposed to be a little bit out there. Predicting that the Red Sox have no shot at the Division crown is a slam dunk and not at all fearless. If you would like to predict' date=' better yet bet, that the Sox will win the ALE crown, that would be a fearless prediction.[/quote']

 

It's not a slam dunk at all, there's 75 games left. You're just delusional from the other end of the spectrum, you flip and flop your opinions as you go, when the Sox are down you think it's realistic to be a doomsayer. You got drunk when you heard we signed Crawford, now he's a horseshit signing and Theo made a mistake. If the Sox are within a couple games of the lead a couple months down the road, where will you stand then? You'll be the biggest Sox backer in the world.

[iortiz]

"Seems like Beckett, Lester, A-Gon, Peddy and Ells are only our sure bets."

 

Nailed it.

 

 

It was fearless, wasn't it?

[Emmz]

What my predictions show is that I was much too optimistic about the 2012 Red Sox. I let my fandom color my judgment.

 

If everyone is healthy and playing to career averages, this is a top 5 team. That's not optimistic. An unreasonable amount of s*** play and injuries to key players has made the difference. I'm not delusional at all, it's obvious that if the play doesn't change, this one's over, and there haven't been any signs of improvement. It's still not over, not by a long shot.

[Emmz]

 

It was fearless, wasn't it?

 

Those guys should be sure bets though, except for Beckett, who you never know about.

 

If those guys and Crawford perform, this team's in first right now.

[a700hitter]

It's not a slam dunk at all' date=' there's 75 games left. You're just delusional from the other end of the spectrum, you flip and flop your opinions as you go, when the Sox are down you think it's realistic to be a doomsayer. You got drunk when you heard we signed Crawford, now he's a horseshit signing and Theo made a mistake. If the Sox are within a couple games of the lead a couple months down the road, where will you stand then? You'll be the biggest Sox backer in the world.[/quote']I am always a Sox backer. I root for them every game, every year. So, your post above is a bunch of horseshit. However, I can do math and I do know that they are a real long shot for the division title. I would not be making roster moves (trades or acquisitions) with an eye towards winning the division. That would be foolish by the FO. I do not think they should go balls to the wall improving this team prior to the trading deadline, because the best they can hope for is a wild card shot, and I think few people would disagree with that. I don't think that is doom-saying.

 

I don't know what my attitude about the Carl Crawford signing has to do with these issues. Yes, I did get excited when Crawford signed. I tend to get excited when the Red Sox pick up a talented All Star in his prime. His signing hasn't worked out up to this point, and I am pissed about how this elbow issue has been handled. He could have been playing with the elbow, so I don't understand why he hasn't been playing. If this signing is a bust, yes it will have been Theo's mistake.

[a700hitter]

If everyone is healthy and playing to career averages' date=' this is a top 5 team. That's not optimistic. An unreasonable amount of s*** play and injuries to key players has made the difference. I'm not delusional at all, it's obvious that if the play doesn't change, this one's over, and there haven't been any signs of improvement. It's still not over, not by a long shot.[/quote']Predictions that everyone stays healthy and plays to career averages would be a very fearless prediction, because it would never have a chance of happening. And who the hell is calling you delusional? I have not called you delusional.

[SoxSport]

I'm not optimistic because I think they have management issues that are affecting team morale.

[redsoxbeatz]

fire Bobby V. If Pedroia doesn't like him than that's good enough for me

[example1]

I didn't make any predictions. I don't really like predictions.

 

That said, I was going to start a "Mea Culpa" thread (my mistake or my fault for those of you not fluent in Latin) because whether I made predictions or not, I made points and many were wrong.

 

I was wrong because:

 

* The team is not doing fine

 

* The pitching staff (starting pitching) is pathetic. I still feel correct for thinking they didn't need to address it during the offseason with a guy like Oswalt, but Gio Gonzalez looks damn nice right now. Ultimately, even a good team like the Red Sox has a limit in resources. Once you've bought the limo, the nice tux, dinner, drinks, spilled a drink on yourself, rented the replacement tux, paid to have the limo filled with gas, replaced the limo with a backup limo when it caught on fire, rented a third tux from the fire incident, hired an expensive call-girl because your date left you, and then paid for parking, you really don't have a choice but to stay at the dance. You can't go do anything more fun, you're out of money and, frankly, just beat up. The parking put it over the top (f***ing Lackey).

 

* The Bard to the rotation experiment: fail.

 

* Theo left the team in a mess. Whether this was because of his approach to baseball (I don't think it was) or his approach to management (and response to pressures from superiors, which I suspect) doesn't really matter. The team is a s*** sandwich.

 

Things I feel somewhat vindicated about:

 

* The closer position seems to have sorted itself out and Ben C has done a nice job with the bullpen.

 

* Signing Papelbon to a huge deal wouldn't have helped make this team much better this year, and certainly wouldn't have helped with their resource issues in the long-run.

 

* The farm system IS producing players who help at the MLB level, and they aren't just helping relative to replacement players. Some of these guys have been really helpful and show lots of promise. The farm system is also super deep, capable of landing a significant piece or two if they need it to.

 

The thing I don't know about one way or another:

 

Bobby Valentine. Who the hell is this guy? What is he doing, exactly? Sometimes I find myself really liking him. Sometimes I find myself wondering if he's the biggest douche in the world. Is he brilliant? Overwhelmed? Stupid? He's a complete enigma. If nothing else I guess I can say that I WANT him to have success because, even if he's a douche, no douche deserves to have the type of catastrophe that this team occasionally borders on.

 

Anyway, here's the reason I wanted to make the Mea Culpa thread (not just to put my failures out for public display):

 

* One positive of this shitstorm season is that I think the participants on this board have actually grown considerably more tolerant and less reactionary toward each other. Maybe some people aren't around as much, but it seems to me that just about EVERYONE who made bold predictions last year has been wrong. We also can all see the writing on the wall: it is going to be a hard road to get this team back to prominence and there will be lots to talk about.

 

When there's moves and ballgames to analyze this board can be a great place. When we're all trying to figure out which player it was who released the smelliest fart in our face and none of the players are taking accountability, of course we will be at each others throats.

 

Anyway, cheers to all of you for sticking it out through some tough s*** and actually moving MORE toward baseball related discussion and further from personal s***. I thought this board really sucked for awhile last off-season, but everyone seems to have taken a step back.

 

2nd half: Go Sox!

[jung]

Paps was actually one of the things that was right at the heart of the matter in the offseason E.

 

My argument about Paps was that you had to be a hell of a ball club to think you had your ducks so lined up that you could invest four years at $11 per year in a guy to come in and pitch the 9th inning for you. The Phils clearly thought they had their ducks in a row such that paying a premium price for a closer made sense. My point in the offseason was that I did not think the Sox looked anything like a team that could ignore other needs and pour that kind of money into a closer. I think the other thing overarching the discussion of Paps and the kind of money the Phils gave him is whether a closer is ever worth that kind of money, any closer not names Rivera anyway. I would suggest that it is always crazy to give a closer the kind of money the Phils gave Paps. However I would also go back to the comment I made at the top....you would have to be one hell of a ball club to think you could afford to give that kind of money to a closer.

[example1]

Yes. Your team would really have to be in outstanding order to make it work... or your pockets would just need to be extra deep.

[a700hitter]

I didn't make any predictions. I don't really like predictions.

 

That said, I was going to start a "Mea Culpa" thread (my mistake or my fault for those of you not fluent in Latin) because whether I made predictions or not, I made points and many were wrong.

 

I was wrong because:

 

* The team is not doing fine

 

* The pitching staff (starting pitching) is pathetic. I still feel correct for thinking they didn't need to address it during the offseason with a guy like Oswalt, but Gio Gonzalez looks damn nice right now. Ultimately, even a good team like the Red Sox has a limit in resources. Once you've bought the limo, the nice tux, dinner, drinks, spilled a drink on yourself, rented the replacement tux, paid to have the limo filled with gas, replaced the limo with a backup limo when it caught on fire, rented a third tux from the fire incident, hired an expensive call-girl because your date left you, and then paid for parking, you really don't have a choice but to stay at the dance. You can't go do anything more fun, you're out of money and, frankly, just beat up. The parking put it over the top (f***ing Lackey).

 

* The Bard to the rotation experiment: fail.

 

* Theo left the team in a mess. Whether this was because of his approach to baseball (I don't think it was) or his approach to management (and response to pressures from superiors, which I suspect) doesn't really matter. The team is a s*** sandwich.

 

Things I feel somewhat vindicated about:

 

* The closer position seems to have sorted itself out and Ben C has done a nice job with the bullpen.

 

* Signing Papelbon to a huge deal wouldn't have helped make this team much better this year, and certainly wouldn't have helped with their resource issues in the long-run.

 

* The farm system IS producing players who help at the MLB level, and they aren't just helping relative to replacement players. Some of these guys have been really helpful and show lots of promise. The farm system is also super deep, capable of landing a significant piece or two if they need it to.

 

The thing I don't know about one way or another:

 

Bobby Valentine. Who the hell is this guy? What is he doing, exactly? Sometimes I find myself really liking him. Sometimes I find myself wondering if he's the biggest douche in the world. Is he brilliant? Overwhelmed? Stupid? He's a complete enigma. If nothing else I guess I can say that I WANT him to have success because, even if he's a douche, no douche deserves to have the type of catastrophe that this team occasionally borders on.

 

Anyway, here's the reason I wanted to make the Mea Culpa thread (not just to put my failures out for public display):

 

* One positive of this shitstorm season is that I think the participants on this board have actually grown considerably more tolerant and less reactionary toward each other. Maybe some people aren't around as much, but it seems to me that just about EVERYONE who made bold predictions last year has been wrong. We also can all see the writing on the wall: it is going to be a hard road to get this team back to prominence and there will be lots to talk about.

 

When there's moves and ballgames to analyze this board can be a great place. When we're all trying to figure out which player it was who released the smelliest fart in our face and none of the players are taking accountability, of course we will be at each others throats.

 

Anyway, cheers to all of you for sticking it out through some tough s*** and actually moving MORE toward baseball related discussion and further from personal s***. I thought this board really sucked for awhile last off-season, but everyone seems to have taken a step back.

 

2nd half: Go Sox!

Good post, E1. My fear going forward is that if they don't come up eith a good strategy to fix this team and then be disciplined in the execution of that strategy, that the Red Sox will become what the Orioles were for more than a decade-- an overpaid dysfunctional group of under perfoming players.

 

I see that you are still clinging to some hope that this mess is not largely Theo's fault. That's okay, because it was not entirely his fault, but whether some of his poor decisions resulted from him caving to pressures, that doesn't make him less accountable. Keep in mind that his last big money blunder was something that he wanted so badly and believed so strongly that he went against the expressed doubts of John Henry. JH said he did not agree with the Carl Crawford signing. Theo didn't cave to the pressure. He may have been sloppy in maintaining discipline, but it wasn't for lack of a backbone.

[a700hitter]

As for Papelbon, purely from a perfomance perspective, we would have 4 or 5 more wins if he had been at the closer this season. Aceve has lost 6 games plus blown 4 saves. Except maybe in his worst season, Papelbon didn't lose and blow that many games in an entire season. Papelbon walking may have been the right financial decision, but if he was our closer this season we would still be right in the thick for the division lead. We'd probably be back 5 games at the most. Yes, the rest of the bullpen has done fine, but not the closer.

[SoxSport]

I see an article this morning about how Ciriaco has energized the team. Brought some life to it.

 

Seems that every time they bring somebody up from that Pawtucket team, they get energized.

 

Which tells me the front office missed the boat at the beginning of the season--by failing to see the Red Sox had gone stale and needed an infusion of new blood--young blood with enthusiasm. The resistance to bringing up Iglesias and Lav come to mind. Middlebrooks wasn't there yet--but he soon came a spark after his hot AAA start.

 

I always felt that getting rid of Epstein wasn't enough. Epstein's people are still there and I doubt they think they did anything wrong. They are basically a status quo bunch. Henry took the money away, but that did not help. It helped Henry, but it didn't help the team. The culture is unchanged, and Valentine hasn't changed that--not with his limited authority.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Papelbon' date=' purely from a perfomance perspective, we would have 4 or 5 more wins if he had been at the closer this season. [b']Aceve has lost 6 games plus blown 4 saves.[/b] Except maybe in his worst season, Papelbon didn't lose and blow that many games in an entire season. Papelbon walking may have been the right financial decision, but if he was our closer this season we would still be right in the thick for the division lead. We'd probably be back 5 games at the most. Yes, the rest of the bullpen has done fine, but not the closer.

 

Some of those are double dippers, meaning he blew the save and took the loss in the same game. If I get the time I'll try to go through the game logs and do some analysis on that.

[Bellhorn04]

Aceves had 3 games in which he blew the save and took the loss, so we're really talking about 7 possible losses that could be blamed on him. But in 2 of his losses he was in his second or third inning of work. I don't think he should be blamed for those losses. I think he can be charged with 5 lost games. Using the same criteria I'm using for Aceves, Papelbon can be charged with 3 lost games.

[iortiz]

which means .5 game back of the O's?

 

I thought that it was going to be dog fight between NY and US for the 2nd place of division. I didn't think that NYY was going to be this good and the best of the league at this point.

 

Seems like this is going to be a dog fight between O's, TB, TOR, CLE, DET, and us for the 2nd WC.

 

Maybe we will need these 2 GMs. Who knows. At least this is going to be interesting and funny to watch.

[SoxSport]

Cherington says Crawford will play two games in Pawtucket this weekend, then join the Sox on Monday.

 

Why isn't he playing this weekend against TB--his old team? In a crucial series? Seems like a setup for him. Once again, Cherington and the front office takes a casual view --long range view--towards winning.

They are running out of range.