Red Sox 2012 fearless prediction thread

[SoxSport]

Buchholz, Crawford, Youks. 3 guys who have to rebound.

[Laser Show]

Crawford looked absolutely terrible the entire season. He needs to have a career year if he wants us to forget his 2011.

 

Buchoolz should have a good year, but I'm not too sure about Youk. He is way too injury prone over at 3B.

[BSN07]

Crawford has wrist issues already. That doesn't scream "rebound season" to me.

[redsoxfan3]

Crawford has wrist issues already. That doesn't scream "rebound season" to me.

 

Well, let's just say he can't really do any worse than he did last year. I see him improving his numbers. I don't see him have a career year, but I hope to see him get back in the right direction which would be a big boost for this team offensively.

[SoxSport]

Crawford has wrist issues already. That doesn't scream "rebound season" to me.

 

I like to think his wrist was his problem last year--not his head. Heads are harder to heal.

[User Name]

The last time Crawford had wrist issues, 2010 and his career year happened.

[a700hitter]

I have been waiting for the offseason to conclude before making any predictions, but I will start to put some out there. I will probably update this post frequently before camp opens. Here we go:

 

• David Ortiz wins his arbitration case ($16.5 million) but pouts for the entire season because the Red Sox disrespected him at the hearing and he demands a trade at the trading deadline, making the decision to offer arbitatration a complete cluster f***.
  
• We get 700+ innings from the 1 through 4 spots in the rotation.
  
• No one pitching in the 5th spot in the rotation pitches more than 50 innings as a starter. The 5th spot becomes a fiasco.
  
• Andrew Bailey hits the DL before the All Star Break. He is shut down in September to get TJ surgery in September.
  
• Ellsbury does 30 -30 again.
  
• Crawford steals 50 bases
  
• Pedroia is a 20-20 man again
  
• Cody Ross hits 20 HRs
  
• Salty keeps throwing balls into CF. He'll lead the league in passed balls without Wakefields help, and he'll keep striking out more than one-third of the time
  
• Iglesias will win the starting SS position when camp breaks, but is OBP at the All Star Break will be .250.
  
• Youkilis will play the whole season and his OBP will be .370+, but his power will be down.
  
• Ortiz's power will be way down because pitchers will just stop pitching to him with no protection behind him.
  
• Wakefield will pitch for the Sox at some point in 2012 but not win any games.
  
• AGon hits 35 HRs
  
• After signing elswhere, it is divulged that the Red Sox never met with or offered Oswalt a contract.
  
• The player we get as compensation for Theo never wears a Red Sox uniform.

 

Of course the Sox will sign Roy Oswalt within 24 hours of this post, so I will delete it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is a good thread. Well done, RSFFL. Nice title, makes it easier to make bold predictions. Here are mine.

 

1. Crawford hits over .300 with 14 HR, missing the majority of April. He hits 2nd the entire season, finds his comfort zone, swipes 40 bags, and scores 95 runs.

 

2. Ellsbury hits 26 HR, steals 42 bags, and OPS's over .920.

 

3. Pedroia hits 25 HR and has a higher OPS than Cano.

 

4. Iglesias is the opening day SS. Sox hide his bat in the lineup. He puts up a line of .218/.276/.330, but plays gold glove caliber defense, and gets the SP out of multiple jams in big situations.

 

5. Youkilis is the #6 hitter, hits .275 and only hits 18 HR. He plays 125 games, but most of his missed games come early in the season. Aviles plays 3rd base while he's injured. Middlebrooks takes a big step in AAA, and the Red Sox do not exercise Youk's option for 2013.

 

6. Gonzo gets his power back after his shoulder and neck heal. He hits 38 HR, and has a line of .313/.402/.568.

 

7. Salty has another season like last season. He strikes out around 28% of the time, but has good pop. hitting 15 HR and hitting .240. Shoppach takes almost all starts against LHP, and hits .248/.315/.515 with 14 HR.

 

8. Cody Ross has a very solid year, and is the starting RF all season. He hits .260/.325/.490 and has 19 HR.

 

9. Ortiz has a season consistent with his 3 year average. He hits .270/.370/.510 with 28 HR and 95 RBI.

 

10. Bard becomes a very good SP in the first half, winning 10 games and throwing to a 2.80 ERA. He starts to tail off in the 2nd half, and ends up with 15 wins and a 3.40 ERA. DiceK takes some spot starts from him during August and September to save some bullets for the PS.

 

11. Lester wins the Cy Young and throws to a 3.12 ERA, winning 20 games.

 

12. Beckett regresses and pitches to a 3.70 ERA, winning 13 games.

 

13. Buchholz throws over 200 IP, and takes over the #2 spot from Beckett. He has a 3.28 ERA, 17 wins.

 

14. Padilla and Aaron Cook split the #5, throwing a combined 220 IP to a 4.64 ERA. They combine for 11 wins.

 

15. Bailey is better than Papelbon was in 2011.

 

16. Melancon gets hit hard early but settles in, and ends up with a 3.6 ERA.

 

17. Aceves becomes the set up guy in the bullpen, and continues to dominate. He and Bailey have sub-3.00 ERA's, but the remaining portion of the bullpen blow 13 games this year. The bullpen ends up with a 19-17 record and a 3.82 ERA.

 

18. The Red Sox rotation ends up posting a 3.92 ERA

 

19. The Red Sox end the season going 95-67. The edge out the AL East by 1 game.

 

20. Jackso reads this post and calls me a homer because there are too many pro-Red Sox predictions.

[a700hitter]

14. Padilla and Aaron Cook split the #5, throwing a combined 220 IP to a 4.64 ERA. They combine for 11 wins.

 

This is a fearless prediction. No doubt about that.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Nice to see this thread getting some action. You and a700 have some fearless predictions. We'll see how it plays off. Hope to see you around more often when the season starts Forsyth.

 

I lol'd so hard at number 20

[VA Sox Fan]

Nice to see this thread getting some action. You and a700 have some fearless predictions. We'll see how it plays off. Hope to see you around more often when the season starts Forsyth.

 

I lol'd so hard at number 20

 

Me too!

[SoxFanForsyth]

This is a fearless prediction. No doubt about that.

 

Just trying to respect the thread :thumbsup:

 

Seriously though - for everyone (ahem, pumpsie) who thinks this team didn't get better this offseason, take a look at some of these stats.

 

1. Lackey + Bedard + Weiland + Wakefield + Miller combined last season to throw 420 IP to a combined 6.20 ERA. That's the bottom 2 in our rotation throwing to a 6.20 ERA. Even if Bard throws to a 4.00 ERA, which is higher than anyone predicts, that shaves 2.20 runs off of last years #4 starters ERA. And if the #5, whoever it may be, can throw to a 5.00 ERA, which is still very high, that's still an improvement of 1.20 points. That's good for at least 4-5 more wins over the course of the season when considering the runs allowed by them as well as how much it will save our bullpen from having to throw 5 IP in 40% of the games.

 

2. The Red Sox RF hit .230 with a .650 OPS last year. If Cody Ross can hit to the back of his baseball card (.780 OPS, which is very reasonable considering he's a pull hitter playing at Fenway), that 130 points will make up for most (if not all) of the decreased production we get from our SS. Any regression from Ortiz and Ellsbury will also be met with Crawford and Youkilis, who will almost certainly have rebound years.

 

So, essentially we will see the same offense as last season in terms of production, and the #4 slot will see, at worst, around a 2.20 ERA improvement, and the #5 spot will see, at worst, a 1.20 ERA improvement.

 

It's hard not to see a 94-96 win team out of this.

 

There are way, way, way too many people who are getting pissed off about our #4 and #5 starters, and are not realizing just how bad our #4 and #5 starters were last season. (This was not toward you, a700)

[SoxFanForsyth]

Nice to see this thread getting some action. You and a700 have some fearless predictions. We'll see how it plays off. Hope to see you around more often when the season starts Forsyth.

 

I lol'd so hard at number 20

 

Yeah man, definitely. Being an accountant = tons of hours from January - April. After that, it settles down a lot though. Working about 65 hours/week right now, but in the summers it comes down to around 40. I'll be much more active later on.

 

By the way, let me know when you book your trip. We will have to get together for some pre-game grub.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Exactly. You really can't get much worse than Lackey and Dice-K. I don't understand why it's such a hard concept to grasp. The offense is still there too. We might not be the best team on "paper" but we're still in it. I'm so sick of reading posts saying we're f***ed if we don't acquire a pitcher. Also, let's not act like this bullpen isn't capable of being successful. It definitely is still good even with the loss of Papelbon. I love Papelbon but I'm not paying that crazy ass amount of money for him. Sorry.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Exactly. You really can't get much worse than Lackey and Dice-K. I don't understand why it's such a hard concept to grasp. The offense is still there too. We might not be the best team on "paper" but we're still in it. I'm so sick of reading posts saying we're f***ed if we don't acquire a pitcher. Also' date=' let's not act like this bullpen isn't capable of being successful. It definitely is still good even with the loss of Papelbon. I love Papelbon but I'm not paying that crazy ass amount of money for him. Sorry.[/quote']

 

Exactly. I'm thrilled with Bailey and some financial flexibility. I'll take that over Papelbon any day of the week. Especially if we are able to sign a guy like Cole Hamels next offseason because of the money we saved from not signing Papelbon

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Yeah man, definitely. Being an accountant = tons of hours from January - April. After that, it settles down a lot though. Working about 65 hours/week right now, but in the summers it comes down to around 40. I'll be much more active later on.

 

By the way, let me know when you book your trip. We will have to get together for some pre-game grub.

 

I work about 20 a week and I die

 

Not sure if you saw the bad news in the single game tickets thread. I got the ok from my parents to go to Fenway. I was selected to be one the first ones to get the opening day/Yankees tickets. I waited an hour in the virtual waiting room. I picked out all my tickets for all 3 days and my debit card wouldn't go through. I don't even want to talk about it. I'm still going to go, I just need to find out which game I'm going to. I really wanted to see the Sox kick some Yankee ass. I did have plans on meeting a few of you guys from talksox when I get to Boston. I will let you know when I come down. I bet you're loving it up there. Already meeting Larry Luciano.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I work about 20 a week and I die

 

Not sure if you saw the bad news in the single game tickets thread. I got the ok from my parents to go to Fenway. I was selected to be one the first ones to get the opening day/Yankees tickets. I waited an hour in the virtual waiting room. I picked out all my tickets for all 3 days and my debit card wouldn't go through. I don't even want to talk about it. I'm still going to go, I just need to find out which game I'm going to. I really wanted to see the Sox kick some Yankee ass. I did have plans on meeting a few of you guys from talksox when I get to Boston. I will let you know when I come down. I bet you're loving it up there. Already meeting Larry Luciano.

 

Haha I know. Well you may just have to buy a ticket off of Stubhub. That's brutal, though. I can't imagine the frustration. How did you know you were selected to buy those tickets? I thought they were doing the drawing on the 15th.

[iortiz]

I like that perspective, but the big question has been/is, will our top 3 stay healthy?...in other words, will they post together 570IP/ and below 4.0 ERA?.. when was the last time that this happened? and will Bard post at least 140+ IP/4.0 ERA? If the answer is yes, I'm with you SFF

 

BTW... What about the SS production? How do you going to replace a .300 Bat?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Scratch that - the 15th is for the Monster seats.

[FredLynn]

Just trying to respect the thread :thumbsup:

 

Seriously though - for everyone (ahem, pumpsie) who thinks this team didn't get better this offseason, take a look at some of these stats.

 

1. Lackey + Bedard + Weiland + Wakefield + Miller combined last season to throw 420 IP to a combined 6.20 ERA. That's the bottom 2 in our rotation throwing to a 6.20 ERA. Even if Bard throws to a 4.00 ERA, which is higher than anyone predicts, that shaves 2.20 runs off of last years #4 starters ERA. And if the #5, whoever it may be, can throw to a 5.00 ERA, which is still very high, that's still an improvement of 1.20 points. That's good for at least 4-5 more wins over the course of the season when considering the runs allowed by them as well as how much it will save our bullpen from having to throw 5 IP in 40% of the games.

 

2. The Red Sox RF hit .230 with a .650 OPS last year. If Cody Ross can hit to the back of his baseball card (.780 OPS, which is very reasonable considering he's a pull hitter playing at Fenway), that 130 points will make up for most (if not all) of the decreased production we get from our SS. Any regression from Ortiz and Ellsbury will also be met with Crawford and Youkilis, who will almost certainly have rebound years.

 

So, essentially we will see the same offense as last season in terms of production, and the #4 slot will see, at worst, around a 2.20 ERA improvement, and the #5 spot will see, at worst, a 1.20 ERA improvement.

 

It's hard not to see a 94-96 win team out of this.

 

There are way, way, way too many people who are getting pissed off about our #4 and #5 starters, and are not realizing just how bad our #4 and #5 starters were last season. (This was not toward you, a700)

 

You thought I was going to let this go?

First off, Bard, even if he has an ERA of 4.00, isn't going to pitch 180 innings+. How many innings could he pitch? Maybe 120 max? So we are getting about .6 of the year from him (a year I am counting as 200 IP from a SP). Furthermore, remember that we didn't add Bard to the team; he was already here. So adding him to the rotation will most likely improve it, but it also detracts from the quality of the bullpen. Remember: for the vast majority of the season he was the most effective relief pitcher we had in the pen, until he tired out at the end.

Second, have you looked at our #5 SP recently? They all STINK. Right now, I would be thrilled if they could have an ERA of 5. I don't see that happening in the ALE. Furthermore, assuming that Lester/Beckett/Buchholtz will all remain healthy all year, or even most of it, is a mistake. We are, most likely, going to be seeing a lot of Padilla, Cooke, Germano, and the like in the 5th and 6th positions this year. Looking at it objectively, all we have done is replaced Papelbon with Melancon and Bailey. Thats really not much of a change. And we also have Jenks to look forward to, and its also likely that Albers will return to his career norms that include a career ERA of over 5. We also have Doubront and Bowden, two guys who have shown us nothing so far.

I agree that the offense will continue to be effective, but they were never the problem. Our offense was #1 in OPS and runs scored last year, and we didn't make the playoffs. Its about the PITCHING, and I don't see them as an improved staff right now. I see us as a 90 win team this year..give or take a game or two.

[a700hitter]

Just trying to respect the thread :thumbsup:

 

Seriously though - for everyone (ahem, pumpsie) who thinks this team didn't get better this offseason, take a look at some of these stats.

 

1. Lackey + Bedard + Weiland + Wakefield + Miller combined last season to throw 420 IP to a combined 6.20 ERA. That's the bottom 2 in our rotation throwing to a 6.20 ERA. Even if Bard throws to a 4.00 ERA, which is higher than anyone predicts, that shaves 2.20 runs off of last years #4 starters ERA. And if the #5, whoever it may be, can throw to a 5.00 ERA, which is still very high, that's still an improvement of 1.20 points. That's good for at least 4-5 more wins over the course of the season when considering the runs allowed by them as well as how much it will save our bullpen from having to throw 5 IP in 40% of the games.

 

2. The Red Sox RF hit .230 with a .650 OPS last year. If Cody Ross can hit to the back of his baseball card (.780 OPS, which is very reasonable considering he's a pull hitter playing at Fenway), that 130 points will make up for most (if not all) of the decreased production we get from our SS. Any regression from Ortiz and Ellsbury will also be met with Crawford and Youkilis, who will almost certainly have rebound years.

 

So, essentially we will see the same offense as last season in terms of production, and the #4 slot will see, at worst, around a 2.20 ERA improvement, and the #5 spot will see, at worst, a 1.20 ERA improvement.

 

It's hard not to see a 94-96 win team out of this.

 

There are way, way, way too many people who are getting pissed off about our #4 and #5 starters, and are not realizing just how bad our #4 and #5 starters were last season. (This was not toward you, a700)

Your talents are lost on accounting. You should be a public relations/marketing executive. I too think this team has a ton of talent, but the #5 spot in the rotation is a vacant black hole. Even if the stats in the 5th slot improve over 2011, it will have the potential to suck the life out of the bullpen causing it's performance to deteriorate. Are 95-96 wins a possibility? Sure. But I would feel much more confident with Oswalt in the 5th instead of Padilla and cook.

[Palodios]

Exactly. You really can't get much worse than Lackey and Dice-K. I don't understand why it's such a hard concept to grasp. The offense is still there too. We might not be the best team on "paper" but we're still in it. I'm so sick of reading posts saying we're f***ed if we don't acquire a pitcher. Also' date=' let's not act like this bullpen isn't capable of being successful. It definitely is still good even with the loss of Papelbon. I love Papelbon but I'm not paying that crazy ass amount of money for him. Sorry.[/quote']

 

What I'm afraid of, is running into the same problems we saw this year. I know you guys have seen lots of pessimism here, but I've tried to go into great detail about what the depth options this team has available, with real, rational analysis of what the depth actually looks like, not just the babble that some have thrown out there. Because they're actually relying on the depth to turn into a #5 starter, and to find a setup man, it means they need the team to be very very healthy. If any one of the big three goes down-- even for a month or two--there is no safety net, and no depth to withstand it.

 

I keep looking at it, and for all the badmouth that Lackey/Wakefield/Dice-k got last year... they're not even the worst of it. They can atleast pitch 6 innings. Miller, Weiland, Bedard averaged between 4.10 and 4.70 innings a game. That's the kind of thing that destroys your bullpen, and I don't think any of the options available have the durability to give considerable innings per start. They're all either young arms or have been often injured and need rest and inning limits. And while I absolutely think Bailey will do well in the bullpen, he won't be pitching 70-80 innings next year.

[Emmz]

I can definitely see this team winning 95 games and taking the division. I am not going to go as far as to say Bard is going to improve over the previous standard of #4 pitchers by that much. Even if it's not that difficult, anything could happen as a starter. Either way, I see the pitching improving 3-5 (since Buch is back now, hopefully for the entirety of the year) but I'm never sold on Beckett. Hard to not see Lester improving, if not at least being solid.

 

This team IMO should finish much better than last year. It's going to take Ross busting and Crawford struggling to keep this team from winning about 90-95 games. I don't expect Ells to be as good or for Ortiz to be a monster again, but the rest of the team rebounding should be able to overcome that and then some. Not to say I wouldn't like a new starter or a SS, but this still works.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I like that perspective, but the big question has been/is, will our top 3 stay healthy?...in other words, will they post together 570IP/ and below 4.0 ERA?.. when was the last time that this happened? and can Bard post at least 140+ IP/4.0 ERA? If the answer is yes, I'm with you SFF

 

BTW... What about the SS production? How do you going to replace a .300 BA?

 

Couple things:

 

1st off, the Red Sox SS last year hit .279, but more importantly, OPS'ed .730. Aviles can easily replicate that OPS himself next season. But regardless of that, what you want to look at is the combined OPS of RF and SS from last season.

 

RF OPS: .650

SS OPS: .730

 

The thing is - Cody Ross is going to OPS around ,760-.780 next season. He is capable of OPS'ing around .800-.805 if he has a solid season. With consistent playing time in a hitters park like Fenway, he's also good for 18-22 HR. So that's a substantial increase from the RF we had last year (.650 OPS, 14 HR, 58 RBI).

 

With that 110-130 point increase in OPS, we could have Iglesias come up, OPS around .600-.610, play gold glove caliber defense, and this team wouldn't miss a step in terms of offensive production from last year, but would see a huge boost in defense up the middle, which is the most important place to have solid defense.

[a700hitter]

Second, have you looked at our #5 SP recently? They all STINK. Right now, I would be thrilled if they could have an ERA of 5. I don't see that happening in the ALE.

This is an excellent point. We take it as a given that we couldn't do worse than the 5th slot last year, but that is not true. I think I have told the story about the Jets fna who bought a Jets jacket right after they finished 3-13. I asked him why he would pick that time to finally buy a Jets jacket. He told me that they had nowhere to go but up. The next season they went 1-15. That was a life lesson for me. If you don't take steps to improve, history can repeat itself and get worse.

[FredLynn]

What I'm afraid of, is running into the same problems we saw this year. I know you guys have seen lots of pessimism here, but I've tried to go into great detail about what the depth options this team has available, with real, rational analysis of what the depth actually looks like, not just the babble that some have thrown out there. Because they're actually relying on the depth to turn into a #5 starter, and to find a setup man, it means they need the team to be very very healthy. If any one of the big three goes down-- even for a month or two--there is no safety net, and no depth to withstand it.

 

I keep looking at it, and for all the badmouth that Lackey/Wakefield/Dice-k got last year... they're not even the worst of it. They can atleast pitch 6 innings. Miller, Weiland, Bedard averaged between 4.10 and 4.70 innings a game. That's the kind of thing that destroys your bullpen, and I don't think any of the options available have the durability to give considerable innings per start. They're all either young arms or have been often injured and need rest and inning limits. And while I absolutely think Bailey will do well in the bullpen, he won't be pitching 70-80 innings next year.

 

Strange how the entire outlook would change so much if we had a competent #4 SP. Oswalt comes in and we don't have to use our first "depth option" as a SP. I think we could withstand an injury if the basic rotation was solid to start with.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Haha I know. Well you may just have to buy a ticket off of Stubhub. That's brutal' date=' though. I can't imagine the frustration. How did you know you were selected to buy those tickets? I thought they were doing the drawing on the 15th.[/quote']

 

Lol nope.

 

Fenway is fenway. I'd prefer the Yankees but if I get the chance to go then f*** it, who cares who's playing. I'm leaning towards the Tigers game. Oh I was pissed, you have no idea. I got over it though.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

What I'm afraid of, is running into the same problems we saw this year. I know you guys have seen lots of pessimism here, but I've tried to go into great detail about what the depth options this team has available, with real, rational analysis of what the depth actually looks like, not just the babble that some have thrown out there. Because they're actually relying on the depth to turn into a #5 starter, and to find a setup man, it means they need the team to be very very healthy. If any one of the big three goes down-- even for a month or two--there is no safety net, and no depth to withstand it.

 

I keep looking at it, and for all the badmouth that Lackey/Wakefield/Dice-k got last year... they're not even the worst of it. They can atleast pitch 6 innings. Miller, Weiland, Bedard averaged between 4.10 and 4.70 innings a game. That's the kind of thing that destroys your bullpen, and I don't think any of the options available have the durability to give considerable innings per start. They're all either young arms or have been often injured and need rest and inning limits. And while I absolutely think Bailey will do well in the bullpen, he won't be pitching 70-80 innings next year.

 

I agree on the depth. However, no one knows what will happen with injuries this year. Lets say we stay healthy this year. Now how do you see the Sox turning out this year?

[a700hitter]

What I'm afraid of, is running into the same problems we saw this year. I know you guys have seen lots of pessimism here, but I've tried to go into great detail about what the depth options this team has available, with real, rational analysis of what the depth actually looks like, not just the babble that some have thrown out there. Because they're actually relying on the depth to turn into a #5 starter, and to find a setup man, it means they need the team to be very very healthy. If any one of the big three goes down-- even for a month or two--there is no safety net, and no depth to withstand it.

 

I keep looking at it, and for all the badmouth that Lackey/Wakefield/Dice-k got last year... they're not even the worst of it. They can atleast pitch 6 innings. Miller, Weiland, Bedard averaged between 4.10 and 4.70 innings a game. That's the kind of thing that destroys your bullpen, and I don't think any of the options available have the durability to give considerable innings per start. They're all either young arms or have been often injured and need rest and inning limits. And while I absolutely think Bailey will do well in the bullpen, he won't be pitching 70-80 innings next year.

We really haven't added anything to the roster that will help prevent what happened last season, namely a reliable 30+ start pitcher. If the results are the same as 2011, we shouldn't be shocked.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Second, have you looked at our #5 SP recently? They all STINK. Right now, I would be thrilled if they could have an ERA of 5. I don't see that happening in the ALE.

 

That's because we don't have depth like Pal said. You can't really expect to have a solid number 5 in Wakefield/Weiland/Miller etc. They weren't suppose to be our options. Dice-K went down and we just had to keep throwing whatever we could out there. I think a ERA below 5 is reasonable.