Bard as a Starter Discussion

[ORS]

Example1 made a good point in the Yankees Trade for Pineda thread. In all the caterwauling about the pitching staff, the doomsdayers are pointing to the loss of Bard in the bullpen as a cause for great concern, but nobody is talking about him as a starter. I find that interesting.

 

Now, let me preface this by saying, I'm not even sure he's etched in stone as a starter amongst the management. Maybe that's because I've been following the offseason very casually, and I've missed any actual reporting on the subject, so maybe this thread is premature. I don't care, I think it a worthy topic of discussion.

 

What do you, citizens of Talksox, think about the following things.....

 

Should Bard be in the bullpen or in the rotation?

If he goes to the rotation, will he succeed or fail as a starter?

If they lose him in the bullpen, how big of an impact are we looking at?

etc ad nauseum

 

Go!

[BSN07]

I think he should get a shot at starting.

 

I believe if he can develop a league average 3rd pitch he has a good chance to be a Solid ML SP.

 

It will hurt losing him, but he is not irreplaceable IMO. Bailey/Mel have a good chance at giving the Sox comparable production that Bard/Paps did. I think it's easier to find a 8th inning guy then a solid ML SP.

[FredLynn]

Absolutely not ORS. Aceves must be the starter. This is not a matter of opinion, its fact. Anyone who cannot see it is an idiot.

[FredLynn]

Oh, incidentally......on some forums posts with green font indicate sarcasm so that its easier for others to see what is intended as a joke and what is not.

I think that would be a good idea here too.

[example1]

Bard to the rotation is a fine idea. Arms like his don't grow on trees. He's young, has a great pitchers frame and developed as a SP through college. He has 3 pitches which can be labeled "plus" or "near plus" largely because his FB is so freaking good.

 

Also, if he looks promising the Sox can be aggressive and try to lock him up longterm. This would be both ill-advised and uncharacteristic if he were a reliever. That would make him either suitable for the longterm for the Sox, or possible trade bait if they saw a piece they really, really liked.

 

There will be growing pains, but it is absolutely worth taking a shot.

[SoxSport]

Only the Yankees could afford to keep Rivera in the bullpen. Does that answer the question?

[Station 13]

If you evaluate him as a reliever vs a starter, which is more valuable. Starters pitch 200 innings. Relievers pitch 70 innings. He isn't any reliever. He was the most important reliever for the Red Sox mid 2009-2011. We know he excels as the relieve ace. Will he as a starter? Is it worth the risk to lose a weapon out the bullpen?

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

It's not a bad idea but I'd like him to remain the 8th inning guy.

[a700hitter]

Example1 made a good point in the Yankees Trade for Pineda thread. In all the caterwauling about the pitching staff, the doomsdayers are pointing to the loss of Bard in the bullpen as a cause for great concern, but nobody is talking about him as a starter. I find that interesting.

 

Now, let me preface this by saying, I'm not even sure he's etched in stone as a starter amongst the management. Maybe that's because I've been following the offseason very casually, and I've missed any actual reporting on the subject, so maybe this thread is premature. I don't care, I think it a worthy topic of discussion.

 

What do you, citizens of Talksox, think about the following things.....

 

Should Bard be in the bullpen or in the rotation?

If he goes to the rotation, will he succeed or fail as a starter?

If they lose him in the bullpen, how big of an impact are we looking at?

etc ad nauseum

 

Go!

Here was my opinion about the issue before the season ended.

 

It have read and heard that he still wants to be a starter. He would be a huge upgrade over Wakefield, Miller, and the cast of clowns this year. He'd just have to be reliable and able to take the ball every 5th day. We have not had a #5 starter do that since Bronson Arroyo.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/15817-should-red-sox-consider-bard-starter-2012-a.html#post698177

 

^Read this thread

 

This is one of several positive posts in that thread made by me about Bard going to the starting rotation. Of course, you have assumed that I have been negative about this. You should read that thread and then you'll know how I feel about the issue. Maybe you should be certain about your facts before you start criticizing others.

 

Here was my first post about Bard becoming a starter. The date of this post is August 14th. I was basically told that I was crazy and had no proof that the Sox were considering Bard as a starter. Maybe you should read that thread too.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/15588-jonathan-papelbon-can-we-lock-him-up-please-2.html#post685732

 

^You should read this thread too.

 

But you are not negative.

 

BTW: With regard to this thread, some of us have been asking for discussion about this for many months. We already had a thread about this.

 

Edit; So how about we keep the discussion to sports since you really suck at insulting posters?

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am incredibly curious to see how he can be as a SP, and if we're ever going to give him a shot as a SP, this is the year to do it. I'm excited about the prospect of him starting.

[ORS]

Here was my opinion about the issue before the season ended.

 

 

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/15817-should-red-sox-consider-bard-starter-2012-a.html#post698177

 

^Read this thread

 

This is one of several positive posts in that thread made by me about Bard going to the starting rotation. Of course, you have assumed that I have been negative about this. You should read that thread and then you'll know how I feel about the issue. Maybe you should be certain about your facts before you start criticizing others.

 

Here was my first post about Bard becoming a starter. The date of this post is August 14th. I was basically told that I was crazy and had no proof that the Sox were considering Bard as a starter. Maybe you should read that thread too.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/talk-sox-forum/15588-jonathan-papelbon-can-we-lock-him-up-please-2.html#post685732

 

^You should read this thread too.

 

But you are not negative.

 

BTW: With regard to this thread, some of us have been asking for discussion about this for many months. We already had a thread about this.

 

Edit; So how about we keep the discussion to sports since you really suck at insulting posters?

Dude, your vanity needs to stop. This thread is not about you.

[ORS]

On topic, I'm very excited about this happening (if it does). Bard gets his easy gas because of a good frame and effortless mechanics. After conditioning and getting stretched out, he's the type of guy that could still be bringing it in at 96-97 deep in the ballgame. I think his slider is an excellent complimentary pitch. Improvement of his change-up will be the key to make or break success as a starter, though.

 

It's true, he struggled as a starter in the minors. However, those struggles were well documented by a complete lack of control. Which is something he has improved drastically as a reliever. His ability to improve in this regard makes me opitmistic about his ability to improve his change-up. So, if forced to guess at this point, I think he ultimately succeeds as a starter, but not without some bumps in the road. It will be interesting to how much patience management has here.

 

He will be missed in the bullpen. I'm not as confident as others that Bailey/Melancon can approximate what Papelbon/Bard did at the back end of the bullpen for the Sox in 2011, although, I wouldn't discard it as something that was highly unlikely. I think the bigger issue in the bullpen will be depth beyond the 1/1a relievers. I think a big part of the reason the good relievers tanked at the end of last season was over reliance on their talents throughout the year. The middle tier of the bullpen needs to show they are capable of being reliable in tighter spots, and if the current candidates cannot do that, they need to get active in the market or bring up a kid with the stuff to succeed as an MLB reliever.

[Palodios]

He will be missed in the bullpen. I'm not as confident as others that Bailey/Melancon can approximate what Papelbon/Bard did at the back end of the bullpen for the Sox in 2011, although, I wouldn't discard it as something that was highly unlikely. I think the bigger issue in the bullpen will be depth beyond the 1/1a relievers. I think a big part of the reason the good relievers tanked at the end of last season was over reliance on their talents throughout the year. The middle tier of the bullpen needs to show they are capable of being reliable in tighter spots, and if the current candidates cannot do that, they need to get active in the market or bring up a kid with the stuff to succeed as an MLB reliever.

 

I'm sure a700 will object heavily to this one, but bullpens are year to year, and a big part about them is having faith that the team put together enough depth that they get lucky with some players. Between Jenks/Albers/Wilson/Doubront/Bowden, someone is bound to make an impact next year. I would be optimistic enough to believe that one low cost player adds value this year, and I would argue that with one more signing, this bullpen will come out looking like a strength. Melancon, Bailey, and Aceves are very good arms in the bullpen already, and I'm optimistic about Morales as well. Add one more guy from free agency, and that is a bullpen that is six-deep.

 

Bullpen management was never Tito's strength, so a change in coaching could not hurt either.

[User Name]

Rotochamps (they use an algorithm similar to what Bill James uses in his projections) projects Daniel Bard to do the following:

 

155.0 IP, 3.43 ERA, 9.25 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, .292 BABIP.

 

If he approaches those numbers with a couple more innings, that would be a great performance.

 

Personally, i think he could, but with a higher ERA.

[a700hitter]

I'm sure a700 will object heavily to this one, but bullpens are year to year, and a big part about them is having faith that the team put together enough depth that they get lucky with some players. Between Jenks/Albers/Wilson/Doubront/Bowden, someone is bound to make an impact next year. I would be optimistic enough to believe that one low cost player adds value this year, and I would argue that with one more signing, this bullpen will come out looking like a strength. Melancon, Bailey, and Aceves are very good arms in the bullpen already, and I'm optimistic about Morales as well. Add one more guy from free agency, and that is a bullpen that is six-deep.

 

Bullpen management was never Tito's strength, so a change in coaching could not hurt either.

I agree with you about this. Usually there is one guy that step up with a surprise season. Last season it was Aceves, and during the first half Albers was a big surprise. When those two guys were going good at the same time, the team was rolling good, because we also had the 2 big guns at the end of the game. Papelbon and Bard have spoiled us, because they were pretty much givens as dominant performers year in and year out. If one or two more guys stepped up in a year things were great. Going into 2012, Bailey is the only given, and he is an injury concern. We need to have more guys step up and surprise, because we no longer have the two pillars -- Paps and Bard.

[Palodios]

I agree with you about this. Usually there is one guy that step up with a surprise season. Last season it was Aceves' date=' and during the first half Albers was a big surprise. When those two guys were going good at the same time, the team was rolling good, because we also had the 2 big guns at the end of the game. Papelbon and Bard have spoiled us, because they were pretty much givens as dominant performers year in and year out. If one or two more guys stepped up in a year things were great. Going into 2012, Bailey is the only given, and he is an injury concern. We need to have more guys step up and surprise, because we no longer have the two pillars -- Paps and Bard.[/quote']

 

What's wrong with Melancon?

[Dojji]

I believe if he can develop a league average 3rd pitch he has a good chance to be a Solid ML SP.

 

That's one heck of an if at this stage of his career.

 

I'm really nervous about Bard's chances to convert. Not going to say it's impossible, I am going to say that this is a situation where you have to weigh in the value of the bird in the hand. If we had nothing to lose I wouldn't be as against it, but that's not the case -- nor is it true that you can definitely just crowd him back into the bullpen if he fails -- a great deal would depend on how he failed.

[RedSoxFan84]

Once again, all I can say is that I more or less agree with the majority of what has been said. Do I think Bard can make for a nice starter? Sure. He will need to keep adding more strings to his bow, and there will be bumps in the road in the early going, but he has the great size and arm to be a quality starter. When you look at it in context with the rest of the rotation though, all we really need from him (especially in 2012) is to be good enough to be the 4th or (if we acquire an experienced guy) the 5th starter in the rotation. I see no reason why he can't do that, even if it does take him some time to adjust to the role. Do I think that they WILL use him as a starter? I'm pretty confident that they will. The only way that I can see them not using him as a starter is if they get active on the trade/free-agent market and bring in some more experienced guys, because with the lineup that we have now, Bard and Aceves are pretty much all we have to rely on after the main three guys (Beckett, Lester and Buchholz).

 

As for the impact on the pen, I think we should be ok. Losing Papelbon sucked, but Bailey is younger and is an All-Star quality closer, and should at least go a long way towards filling Papelbon's shoes. As for Bard's now-vacated role as a setup guy, we have another young guy who I think has plenty of talent in Melancon. Now I'm not going to say for 100% certainty that Melancon/Bailey will replace Bard/Papelbon, but I feel confident that they have the talent to do so, and will only get better as the season wears on and they get more of a feel for pitching at Fenway. So if you assume for the sake of making this argument simple that Melancon/Bailey will replace Bard/Papelbon, then it would appear that we have, more or less, covered those two losses with two new guys who can get the job done. When you look at it that way, the pen really shouldn't be hit too hard by Bard becoming a starter. The thing that I can see really hurting our depth in the pen is if Aceves is forced to become the 5th starter. That would really be a hit to our relief depth. That is why I'm hoping and praying that we sign an established starter, even if just for one season so as to give ourselves money to spend next year. It would mean that Bard could learn the job as the 5th starter on the depth chart, and it would also mean that Aceves would stay in the pen, which in my opinion at least, is a big plus.

[DeadHorseSociety]

Bard didn't do too good starting in the minors because the sox toyed around with his mechanics. I think his success has more to do with him going back to his old ways in the Arizona Fall League than it does with him going to the pen, that and his secondary pitches taking a big leap from AA on. I see him as AJ Burnett 2.0 stuff-wise and if healthy I see him having a similar season to the one AJ had in 2007.

[RedSoxFan84]

I just read an article titled "10 Bold Predictions for Daniel Bard in the Boston Red Sox Rotation" and this is their 10 predictions:

 

 

1 - He will start 28 games

2 - His ERA will be better than you think (3.26 ERA in 2012)

3 - He will come close to 200 innings (197.1 innings in 2012)

4 - He'll still be a strikeout pitcher (200 strikeouts in 2012)

5 - He wont walk many batters (1.003 WHIP in 2012)

6 - His win/loss percentage will be 0.684

7 - He'll post a sub 3.00 ERA against the Yankees in 2012 (2.48 ERA)

8 - Toronto will give him the biggest fits in the AL East (3.94 ERA)

9 - He will pitch himself into significant trade talks in July (Giants, Brewers and Cardinals may be interested)

10 - He'll help the brass feel better about getting rid of Lackey

 

 

 

Now keep in mind that these aren't my predictions, rather those from an article I was just reading. Personally, I would be pretty happy with that sort of result from Bard in 2012. What do you guys think?

[ORS]

All those sound aggressively optimistic. Even the Rotochamps projections look optimistic to me. I'm thinking somewhere around 150 IP and an ERA somewhere between 4.00-4.50. And I consider myself somewhat optimistic.

 

EDIT: All of which would still be a massive improvement at the back of the rotation. He needs to learn to trust his stuff a bit against the bottom of lineups, IMO. I'll be very concerned if I see a trend of trying to get too cute and wasting pitches against crummy hitters.

[MANNYHOF24]

Absolutely not ORS. Aceves must be the starter. This is not a matter of opinion' date=' its fact. Anyone who cannot see it is an idiot.[/color']

 

Wrong, so wrong... Did you even watch games Aceves started last year? Bottom line, he wasn't very good. I think he had an ERA in the mid 5's and averaged about 5 innings a start.

 

I think Bard has the tools to become a 2nd or 3rd starter in this leauge. Like ORS said, he has the build and delivery to crank heavy gas even into the late innings. I think the best part of transitioning Bard to the rotation is I think it suits him better mentally. For some reason I have always gotten the sense that Bard wasn't entirely comfortable in big spots late in the game. I think the FO knows this, which is why there was almost no talk of Bard taking over once Papelbon jetted to Philly. I think starting he will be able to relax and feel less pressure then coming in to shut down a team completely for 1 inning.

[example1]

Wrong, so wrong... Did you even watch games Aceves started last year? Bottom line, he wasn't very good. I think he had an ERA in the mid 5's and averaged about 5 innings a start.

 

I think Bard has the tools to become a 2nd or 3rd starter in this leauge. Like ORS said, he has the build and delivery to crank heavy gas even into the late innings. I think the best part of transitioning Bard to the rotation is I think it suits him better mentally. For some reason I have always gotten the sense that Bard wasn't entirely comfortable in big spots late in the game. I think the FO knows this, which is why there was almost no talk of Bard taking over once Papelbon jetted to Philly. I think starting he will be able to relax and feel less pressure then coming in to shut down a team completely for 1 inning.

 

The post after that said that whenever he put something in green it would mean sarcasm. Apparently other boards do it. :dunno:

[MANNYHOF24]

The post after that said that whenever he put something in green it would mean sarcasm. Apparently other boards do it. :dunno:

 

My apologies! I did not catch that.

[NativeBostonian]

I'm a little hesitant putting Bard as a starter. But, I guess I will see what he can do in spring training. I also I think he is going to have to learn to throw another pitch.

[NativeBostonian]

That's one heck of an if at this stage of his career.

 

I'm really nervous about Bard's chances to convert. Not going to say it's impossible, I am going to say that this is a situation where you have to weigh in the value of the bird in the hand. If we had nothing to lose I wouldn't be as against it, but that's not the case -- nor is it true that you can definitely just crowd him back into the bullpen if he fails -- a great deal would depend on how he failed.

 

I agree. This is a risky move. I would feel better if we had a good plan B.

[3rdManOut]

I agree. This is a risky move. I would feel better if we had a good plan B.

 

I feel the same way. I think Im thinking of him too much as a bullpen guy just based on what he did this past season. However since I am assuming that this will be a rebuilding period the Sox should take the risk.

[a700hitter]

What's wrong with Melancon?

I didn't say that Melancon was bad, but you know the stats. He's not as good as Bard, and he has been pitching in a weak Division of the NL. He's 26, the same as Bard, and he has had only one good full year. Bard is better, and he has been doing it for 3 years.

[a700hitter]

I agree. This is a risky move. I would feel better if we had a good plan B.

If we sign or trade for a starter, Aceves can go back to the bullpen where he will be a great asset. If Bard blows up in his conversion to starting, Bard can go back to the pen and Aceves can take a shot at starting. That could be a plan B.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If we sign or trade for a starter' date=' Aceves can go back to the bullpen where he will be a great asset. If Bard blows up in his conversion to starting, Bard can go back to the pen and Aceves can take a shot at starting. That could be a plan B.[/quote']

 

I like this plan.

 

And according to Jon Morosi tweet,

 

NL exec: #RedSox “have the players to find a partner if their intention is to move money” to afford starter like Roy Oswalt / Edwin Jackson.

 

Wonder who he's talking about. Gotta think they could move Scutaro, whos 3/18.5mm contract frees up $6mm. Then they could make Aviles the starting SS.

 

Aviles is a more than capable SS. He hit .314/.355/.436 for the Sox last season in 38 games. I'd take him at SS and if it cleared room for someone like Oswalt.