Red Sox Acquire Bailey

[VA Sox Fan]

All deals are about risk and reward. They risked little and got a player who would be a huge reward if healthy. I continue to say that Beane knows something we don't. He is usually pretty good at getting top notch value for his players and this seems like a bit of a dump

 

But if the NYY had signed him? A nice signing...

[jacksonianmarch]

This is a great move right now VA. I am just surprised he dealt him for so little right now. Beane is a smart dude, maybe he knows something we don't is all I am saying. If Beane thought he'd be totally healthy, he'd have held him until the ASB, proven he could handle the season and he would have gotten twice as much in terms of prospect load

[VA Sox Fan]

This is a great move right now VA. I am just surprised he dealt him for so little right now. Beane is a smart dude' date=' maybe he knows something we don't is all I am saying. If Beane thought he'd be totally healthy, he'd have held him until the ASB, proven he could handle the season and he would have gotten twice as much in terms of prospect load[/quote']

 

 

Understanding Beane and his moves? :dunno:

 

Just hoping for the best.

[Spudboy]

What next? Somebody post the chart.

 

I agree with Jacko. On the surface this appears to be a good deal for the Sox. However, Bailey's elbow health, weight issues, and the fact that his IP have declined are an obvious red flag. At this point it is entirely likely that he will prove to be more like Jenks than Paps. The Sox gave up a decent MLB ready outfielder and two lower level prospects and got at best, equal value. The proof is in the pudding. If Bailey stays healthy and can pitch under the pressure of this market then it was a good deal. If not, we will all remember this as just another off season feel good moment that went sour.

[Spitball]

One thing that bothers me about Andrew Bailey is his home and away splits with strikeouts and walks. He has struck out batters at a 10.4 rate in that big Oakland park and only 7.4 away. His walks on the road are also way more frequent. This tells me he probably pitches more aggresively and more confidently in that big ballpark.

 

The rest of his splits are pretty equal, but he tended to have more home appearances (probably due to more win opportunities).

 

I brought this up earlier but think it must have been lost in an ongoing discussion. Bailey has similar home/away splits except his k/bb rate. It is very pronounced. He has a 106/19 k/bb ratio at home, but a 68/30 on the road. Whoa!

 

This guy has obviously been less aggressive away from that large Oakland stadium. How will he pitch in Fenway?

[User Name]

I don't know how this can be spun to not be a great deal for the Sox. Reddick has several holes in his game, Alcantara is raw and wild, and Head was blocked and K's a ton. Even if Bailey averages a 2011 season during his Sox tenure, it's still a good trade.

[User Name]

All deals are about risk and reward. They risked little and got a player who would be a huge reward if healthy. I continue to say that Beane knows something we don't. He is usually pretty good at getting top notch value for his players and this seems like a bit of a dump

 

Really? Because as MVP said, he didn't get great returns on the trades for his headline pitchers, a point you have ignored and not rebutted.

[example1]

Really? Because as MVP said' date=' he didn't get great returns on the trades for his headline pitchers, a point you have ignored and not rebutted.[/quote']

 

It seems like a bit of a dump because it is a trade of a "closer" for other players. The "closer" is a somewhat fictional role composed of players who have previously been relied upon to get the final outs of the game. Beane trades them over and over again. A team like Oakland needs prospects and everyday outfielders much more than it needs a guy to shut the door at the end of games they are leading. I doubt there's much to see here, other than a high quality pitcher being moved for 3 other players. Bailey is likely not on his last legs or anything like that.

[seabeachfred]

What next? Somebody post the chart.

 

I agree with Jacko. On the surface this appears to be a good deal for the Sox. However, Bailey's elbow health, weight issues, and the fact that his IP have declined are an obvious red flag. At this point it is entirely likely that he will prove to be more like Jenks than Paps. The Sox gave up a decent MLB ready outfielder and two lower level prospects and got at best, equal value. The proof is in the pudding. If Bailey stays healthy and can pitch under the pressure of this market then it was a good deal. If not, we will all remember this as just another off season feel good moment that went sour.

 

Well we had to roll the dice Spudboy. I knew we were not going to pay the type of money that it would take to sign the former Phillie. I think Reddick was expendable because of his lack of discipline at the plate that has never improved, and Alcantara is a suspect prospect at best right now. I don't know much about Head except to say that he had people in front of him both at third and at first. Certainly we have to hope that Bailey stays healthy because if he is in top shape physically we have ourselves a good closer for less than half the price it would have cost to keep Papelbon. If his elbow flares up it is then that we may have to scramble with Aceves and or Bard and put one or both of them in the bullpen, or we may have to go with Melanson in that role. We have bought ourselves a little bit of depth in the bullpen, so things look a helluva lot better than they did a few weeks ago.

[seabeachfred]

I don't know how this can be spun to not be a great deal for the Sox. Reddick has several holes in his game' date=' Alcantara is raw and wild, and Head was blocked and K's a ton. Even if Bailey averages a 2011 season during his Sox tenure, it's still a good trade.[/quote']

 

User, I don't think anyone is coming right out and saying this was a bad deal for us because it most certainly wasn't. Was it a potential washout of a deal? That depends on whether we can keep Bailey healthy and whether his elbow problems are things of the past. If he fails it still doesn't make it a bad trade because none of the three we traded away had much of a future with the Red Sox. As I suggested to Spudboy, we had to roll the dice because we were not going to pay an exhorbitant price for a closer this winter.

[starwarsgeekperson]

They really got a good deal.

[SCM33]

What next? Somebody post the chart.

 

I agree with Jacko. On the surface this appears to be a good deal for the Sox. However, Bailey's elbow health, weight issues, and the fact that his IP have declined are an obvious red flag. At this point it is entirely likely that he will prove to be more like Jenks than Paps. The Sox gave up a decent MLB ready outfielder and two lower level prospects and got at best, equal value. The proof is in the pudding. If Bailey stays healthy and can pitch under the pressure of this market then it was a good deal. If not, we will all remember this as just another off season feel good moment that went sour.

 

I agree.

 

If hes got his s*** under control, its a great deal. Some of those red flags make me a little nervous though especially if hes having weight problems which directly leads to injury.

 

In the end, I think they were just trying to save a few bucks so it puts more profit in the owners pockets.....$400,000 for Bailey rather than $10,000,000 for Madsen or 12,500,000 for Papelbon.

 

If this works out.....well, then thats great. If he gets hurt and/or struggles with his weight, injuries and the big market, people are going to be pretty pissed off they didnt spend the money on the better options (Madsen, Papelbon).

 

So far we have replaced Bard and Papelbon with Melancon and Bailey. Right now, as contructed....our pitching staff has taken a significant step back. Through January, with spring training right around the corner.....its safe to say this has been very a disappointing offseason.

[iortiz]

Yes, Bard and Pap are better than Melancon and Bailey, regardless they will pitch in a tougher environment but they can fit well. We have 3 SPs who are prone to injuries. Bard is a mystery as a Starter. The #5 spot still a mystery as well. If Aceves takes that spot, our BP is a mystery too.

 

Yes, This offseason hasn't been encouraging.

 

Hopefully, all those question marks play in our favor.

[User Name]

In the end' date=' I think they were just trying to save a few bucks so it puts more profit in the owners pockets.....$400,000 for Bailey rather than $10,000,000 for Madsen or 12,500,000 for Papelbon. [/quote']

 

Asinine argument.

[SCM33]

Asinine argument.

 

Asinine argument if it works. Spot on if it doesnt.

 

Hindsight is great isnt it?

 

Funny thing about hindsight.....if you point out possible problems/issues before they happen you are called negative or cynical. If you do so after the fact, the argument is hindsight. If you drink the kool-aid you are a homer/fanboy.

 

Everyone is allowed to have their opinion, regardless of where your opinion stands....in the end, every point of view one has.....is already pre-determined and labeled. Neither one of us knows today how it will turn out.

 

Asinine? Sure, if thats what you prefer. I prefer realistic, as it is the the realm of possibility just as much as the move is to being a success.

 

Just because my opinion is different from yours prior to a single pitch thrown does not make it wrong though and name calling adds nothing to the conversation.

[Palodios]

In the end' date=' I think they were just trying to save a few bucks so it puts more profit in the owners pockets.....$400,000 for Bailey rather than $10,000,000 for Madsen or 12,500,000 for Papelbon. [/quote']

 

The owners of this team will spend significantly more on player salaries this season than any other season in the team's history, right. The owners spent about 500 million dollars in contracts over the last two offseasons. Big contracts for relievers are the worst thing a team can spend its money on. What makes it worse is that Papelbon's contract would essentially cost 18 million a year because he pushes them so far over the salary cap, when Melancon or Bailey provide almost identical production.

 

The highest value a reliever can provide is about 12 million a year. The only possible scenario where Papelbon is worth equal value to money he received is if he performs like he did in 2011 for all five years of the contract. So if he has one single bad year, its a bad contract. But throw the luxury tax on top of that? Every single year, there is no actual way for him to earn that value, because he really only throws two or three innings a week.

 

In summary

 

Papelbon made 186,000 per inning in 2011 at a 2.94 ERA. CC Sabathia, the highest paid pitcher in the majors made $102,000 per inning at a 3.00 ERA. Are relievers really worth twice the value of starting pitchers?

[Palodios]

Yes' date=' Bard and Pap are better than Melancon and Bailey[/quote']

 

I keep hearing this argument. Would someone be willing to show me some stats that back this one up? I'm not being snide, I legitimately am curious if there are stats that back this up, because it seems that all of the stat people are in favor of the Bailey move, and all the pro-Papelbon people generally use his demeanor on the mound as their argument. ERA+ seems to show that this comes up as a wash if we base it on 2011's stats, and if we base it on the last three years, Bailey is the best of the group, and Melancon is the worst, so it seems like a wash as well.

[User Name]

Asinine argument if it works. Spot on if it doesnt.

 

Hindsight is great isnt it?

 

Funny thing about hindsight.....if you point out possible problems/issues before they happen you are called negative or cynical. If you do so after the fact, the argument is hindsight. If you drink the kool-aid you are a homer/fanboy.

 

Everyone is allowed to have their opinion, regardless of where your opinion stands....in the end, every point of view one has.....is already pre-determined and labeled. Neither one of us knows today how it will turn out.

 

Asinine? Sure, if thats what you prefer. I prefer realistic, as it is the the realm of possibility just as much as the move is to being a success.

 

Just because my opinion is different from yours prior to a single pitch thrown does not make it wrong though and name calling adds nothing to the conversation.

 

Did you see what i quoted?

 

The "asinine" part refers to the whining about the team being cheap for the owner to make a few bucks because they refuse to spend 500 million dollars for the second straight offseason. The team has budgetary limits. Be realistic.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

In the end' date=' I think they were just trying to save a few bucks so it puts more profit in the owners pockets[/quote']

 

Oh, damn them!

[Elktonnick]

Did you see what i quoted?

 

The "asinine" part refers to the whining about the team being cheap for the owner to make a few bucks because they refuse to spend 500 million dollars for the second straight offseason. The team has budgetary limits. Be realistic.

 

You have to run ta ML baseball team like a business to be successful in this sport. Using performance measures with emphasis on outcomes not just process measures and other TQM and CQI techniques are the way to do that.

[iortiz]

I keep hearing this argument. Would someone be willing to show me some stats that back this one up? I'm not being snide' date=' I legitimately am curious if there are stats that back this up, because it seems that all of the stat people are in favor of the Bailey move, and all the pro-Papelbon people generally use his demeanor on the mound as their argument. ERA+ seems to show that this comes up as a wash if we base it on 2011's stats, and if we base it on the last three years, Bailey is the best of the group, and Melancon is the worst, so it seems like a wash as well.[/quote']

 

We have plenty discussed this. Here, how I see the things... Again.

 

Pap.

 

He is not prone to injuries.

He has been proved in your environment.

He is still young. He is mature. He is expirienced. He is in his prime.

Since 2008 (4 Y) he has gave you 65+ IP/year as a closer.

Since 2006 he has only posted 1 bad year. Taking that away, he has put 1.98 ERA/5 years.

He has averaged 35+ SV/6 years

Pap is making -17%/y than Moe. No sign or reason to think that he is in a decline. IMO he will be solid next 4 years.

 

Bailey

 

He is prone to injuries and IMO he has not proved good shape and physical conditioning (reason why I assume he gets injuries)

He hasn't been proved in your environment.

He only have 3 years in the majors, again with already injury track record.

He has put 49 & 41 IP last two years.

He has averaged 25 SV/3 Y

Last year he post 3.24, Pap? 2.9

 

Yes, he can make it and still young and will cost you almost nothing, but Pap is a proved, solid, healthy and elite closer reason why he is making that contract.

 

IMO is unfair the comparison. Pap is by far a better piece as a MLB closer.

 

Bailey is still a promise. A good one BTW.

 

BL Today, Pap>>Bailey (great upside if HEALTHY)

[a700hitter]

In the end, I think they were just trying to save a few bucks so it puts more profit in the owners pockets.....$400,000 for Bailey rather than $10,000,000 for Madsen or 12,500,000 for Papelbon.

Bailey is arbitration eligible and he is expected to get around $3.5 million in 2012. That is cheaper than Papelbon, but it is his full fair market value. He is a cheaper option but he is not a value acquisition.

[a700hitter]

We have plenty discussed this. Here, how I see the things.

 

Pap.

 

He is not prone to injuries.

He has been proved in your environment.

He is still young. He is mature. He is expirienced. He is in his prime.

Since 2008 (4 Y) he has gave you 65+ IP/year as a closer.

Since 2006 he has only post 1 bad year. Taking that away, he has put 1.98 ERA/5 years.

He has averaged 35+ SV/6 years

Pap is making -17%/y than Moe. No sign or reason to think that he is in a decline. IMO he will be solid next 4 years.

 

Bailey

 

He is prone to injuries and IMO he has not proved good shape and physical conditioning (reason why I assume he gets injuries)

He hasn't been proved in your environment.

He only have 3 years in the majors, again with already injury track record.

He has put 49 & 41 IP last two years.

He has averaged 25 SV/3 Y

Last year he post 3.24, Pap? 2.9

 

Yes, he can make it and still young and will cost you almost nothing, but Pap is a proved, solid, healthy and elite closer reason why he is making that contract.

 

IMO is unfair the comparison. Pap is by far a better piece as a MLB closer.

 

Bailey is still a promise. A good one BTW.

 

BL Today, Pap>>Bailey (great upside if HEALTHY)

yes, Papelbon is in a very elite class. Everyone who argues against him say that he is not as good as Mo. Well, as you have pointed out, he he drives on the same highway as Mo and there are only 2 or 3 cars on that highway. That's elite. Mo is 42. Soon Papelbon will be on that highway by himself. Unfortunately, he'll be driving it for the Phillies.

[iortiz]

yes' date=' Papelbon is in a very elite class. Everyone who argues against him say that he is not as good as Mo. Well, as you have pointed out, he he drives on the same highway as Mo and there are only 2 or 3 cars on that highway. That's elite. Mo is 42. Soon Papelbon will be on that highway by himself. Unfortunately, he'll be driving it for the Phillies.[/quote']

 

Yup. Some still saying that relievers are not a good bet in order to pay them big contracts. He is not in that bunch. Not even close. As you said, he is a very elite CLOSER. Very close to Mo. Bailey? He is still a kid. He needs to prove a lot of things.

 

Hopefully Bailey make us forget Pap.

[a700hitter]

Yup. Some still saying that relievers are not a good bet in order to pay them big contracts. He is not in that bunch. Not even close. As you said, he is a very elite CLOSER. Very close to Mo. Bailey? He is still a kid. He needs to prove a lot of things.

 

Hopefully Bailey make us forget Pap.

I hope he does, but if he has a Pap type year, he will gets Paps type money in arbitration. He's not the value acquisition that people think he is. He is a fair market value acquisition from this point on. If he remains cheaper than Paps on an annual basis, it will be because he hasn't performed as well as paps.

[FredLynn]

yes' date=' Papelbon is in a very elite class. Everyone who argues against him say that he is not as good as Mo. Well, as you have pointed out, he he drives on the same highway as Mo and there are only 2 or 3 cars on that highway. That's elite. Mo is 42. Soon Papelbon will be on that highway by himself. Unfortunately, he'll be driving it for the Phillies.[/quote']

 

The fact is that Bailey's career numbers to date are slightly better than Papelbon's.

 

Bailey: 2.07/.954

Papelbon: 2.33/1.018

 

Paps has been around for 7 years; Bailey just three.

The issue is not whether RIGHT NOW Bailey is as good as Papelbon, because he is, statistically, but whether he can keep it up like Papelbon has done. No one knows that right now.

[a700hitter]

The fact is that Bailey's career numbers to date are slightly better than Papelbon's.

 

Bailey: 2.07/.954

Papelbon: 2.33/1.018

 

Paps has been around for 7 years; Bailey just three.

The issue is not whether RIGHT NOW Bailey is as good as Papelbon, because he is, statistically, but whether he can keep it up like Papelbon has done. No one knows that right now.

He also has been pitching in a ballpark that has about 12 acres of foul territory where the ball just does not carry at all at night. Also, he only throws 40 innings per year over the last 2 seasons. It's hard to compare that to Paps.

[User Name]

You have to run ta ML baseball team like a business to be successful in this sport. Using performance measures with emphasis on outcomes not just process measures and other TQM and CQI techniques are the way to do that.

 

In most, not all situations. There are a lot of aspects in which you need to run a baseball team like, well, a baseball team. It's a hybrid, not only a business, smart ass. Try applying some of your "Business management" techniques to scouting, conditioning and on-field management of a baseball team.

 

I'll wait here.

[SoxSport]

Except for that hiccup in September, Pap had a great year last year--his contract year. But he was not nearly as good the previous two years, so his three year average is not that good. You could say the same thing for Ortiz--another guy who had big numbers in a contract year after two declining years.

 

So, how do you judge these guys if you are doing contracts and the money is coming out of your pocket?

As I've said, job performance in industry is usually based on a three year average. But in sports, the media seems to judge players only on what they did last year. Previous performance is ancient history.

How do GMs judge players? The answer is it probably varies. In Papi's case, they gave him the benefit of the doubt for his longevity in Boston. At least for one more year. He'll probably have to go elsewhere to get more years. In Pap's case, they let him go because they didn't value him long range in his price range. My guess is he declines again after a year or two.

 

Look around baseball, and count how many aging players in decline who still have years left on big contracts teams can't unload. Bad contracts given in desperation to get a free agent. That's what the Red Sox want to avoid, though they broke a few rules the last two years allowing Epstein to free spend.

[User Name]

I still don't understand why people blame the Lackey and Crawford signing on Theo only when Lucchino himself has been quoted as saying that he had "some" influence in those signings.